Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Little change on three weeks ago in the latest Newspoll, although the Coalition’s headline lead narrows slightly.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 33% (doen one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 4% (steady). Scott Morrison is steady at 68% approval and up two on disapproval to 29%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 41% and down two to 38%. Morrison’s lead as prime minister has nonetheless widened very slightly, from 59-26 to 60-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1509.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

698 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. One of the manifestations of my second son’s congenital abnormality, was Macroglossia. Speech Therapy went a long way towards helping him speak intelligably, even though it’s still not great. Plus hours every day of his life pulling him up and correcting his pronounciation and making him start all over again, pronouncing properly, if possible. If not, then we would work on a way to get him as close as was physiologically possible.

    He also spent years with a hard palate metal brace which I had to wind every day to cause the deformity, a Cathedral Palate, to widen as he grew up. As well as attending the Orthodentist for 8 years as the braces on his teeth corrected massive tooth deformity. Finally he had maxillofacial surgery to correct his overbite on his upper jaw and underbite on his lower jaw.

    Every day I thank the heavens above that he was born in Australia and that we have Medicare.

  3. doyley:

    Could there be a connection between stuttering and some emotional trauma experienced at a very young age ?

    Again, I reiterate that I am not a stuttering expert. But here’s my two bob’s worth…

    In a nutshell, no.

    What I remember from uni (20+ years ago) is that the emergence of stuttering in early childhood can sometimes coincide with a major change in the child’s life, but this is probably not the cause of the stuttering. It’s more likely to be just a coincidence, or perhaps a child with a (often genetic) predisposition to stuttering is now in an environment where stuttering is more likely to occur, because e.g. the family are stressed and now conversations are more tense/hurried than they were before the change or stressful incident, so it then manifests. Stuttering tends to first emerge when a child is learning to put words together in sentences, and particularly when these sentences become more complex.

    There have been studies finding that people who stutter are no more neurotic or anxious than people who don’t, except they as a group (understandably) have more anxiety around speaking than their non-stuttering counterparts.

    I’ve seen children who stutter very noticeably but don’t seem to care much about it – it doesn’t stop them from speaking or doing what they want to do, and others who have only a minor stutter but it affects them/their confidence significantly. It all depends on the temperament of the individual, and partly how others respond to them.

    There is also what is termed psychogenic stuttering, but it’s not common, and I don’t know a whole lot about that.

  5. There should be a large truckload of merde landing on someone.Should but will it ?
    .
    Rick Morton
    (@SquigglyRick)
    Oh wow, so regarding Newmarch House the aged care watchdog was “‘strongly recommending that infected residents be removed from the site.” Despite this happening at Dorothy Henderson Lodge, the NSW Dept of Health did not want to do this and “set a precedent.” #agedcareRC

    August 10, 2020
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/aug/10/coronavirus-australia-latest-updates-queensland-victoria-nsw-covid-19-outbreak-daniel-andrews-live-news

  6. Commenting on the unfolding disaster in Victoria, Mr Rozen said, between July 8 and Sunday, more than 1000 residents had been diagnosed with COVID-19.

    He said COVID-19 was the greatest challenge the Australian aged care sector has ever faced.

    As of Sunday 203 of the 290 COVID-19 deaths were residents of aged care – making up more than 68 per cent.

    “This makes Australia a country with one of the highest death rates in the world with total deaths from COVID-19,” Mr Rozen said.
    …
    “While there was undoubtedly a great deal done to prepare the Australian health sector more generally for the pandemic, the evidence will reveal that neither the Commonwealth Department of Health nor the aged care regulator developed a COVID-19 plan specifically for the aged care sector.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/covid-19-has-exposed-australia-s-aged-care-sector-s-flaws-royal-commission-hears-20200810-p55k7p.html

    No wonder the LNP Ministers are shouting “quarantine debacle” at the top of their voices.

  8. And for those who were wondering:
    Victoria’s aged care outbreak is not part of the commission’s scope due to a lack of time and sensitivities around the state’s current situation.

    And this on NSW from The West Australian about NSW:

    “The COVID-19 pandemic has starkly exposed all of the flaws of the aged care sector,” Mr Rozen said.

    The response of two Sydney homes, Newmarch House and Dorothy Henderson Lodge, which both had deadly outbreaks, will be closely examined.

    Mr Rozen said there was a lack of high-level infection control expertise at Newmarch House, where 17 residents died, until at least a fortnight into the outbreak.

    He said there were problems at both homes sourcing PPE.

    There was also “vigorous disagreement” between federal and NSW officials early in the outbreak about whether virus-positive residents at Newmarch House should be hospitalised.

    Of 37 positive residents, two were transferred to hospital. One of those died, with the other 16 fatalities occurring at the home.

    Mr Rozen said meeting records showed NSW Health in April had a preference not to move residents into hospital to avoid setting “a precedent” around transfers.

    Grant Millard, boss of the facility’s operator Anglicare Sydney, is expected to give evidence that Anglicare had little or no say about whether residents with the virus should be hospitalised.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/health/virus-starkly-exposed-aged-care-flaws-ng-s-2024442

  10. C@tmomma @ #508 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:18 pm

    And for those who were wondering:
    Victoria’s aged care outbreak is not part of the commission’s scope due to a lack of time and sensitivities around the state’s current situation.

    And this on NSW from The West Australian about NSW:

    “The COVID-19 pandemic has starkly exposed all of the flaws of the aged care sector,” Mr Rozen said.

    The response of two Sydney homes, Newmarch House and Dorothy Henderson Lodge, which both had deadly outbreaks, will be closely examined.

    Mr Rozen said there was a lack of high-level infection control expertise at Newmarch House, where 17 residents died, until at least a fortnight into the outbreak.

    He said there were problems at both homes sourcing PPE.

    There was also “vigorous disagreement” between federal and NSW officials early in the outbreak about whether virus-positive residents at Newmarch House should be hospitalised.

    Of 37 positive residents, two were transferred to hospital. One of those died, with the other 16 fatalities occurring at the home.

    Mr Rozen said meeting records showed NSW Health in April had a preference not to move residents into hospital to avoid setting “a precedent” around transfers.

    Grant Millard, boss of the facility’s operator Anglicare Sydney, is expected to give evidence that Anglicare had little or no say about whether residents with the virus should be hospitalised.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/health/virus-starkly-exposed-aged-care-flaws-ng-s-2024442

    Neither the feds or the NSW wanted the burden of cost to look after the elderly.

    Sociopaths.

  11. Spray:

    Thanks for that. I know his parents have sought help for his stuttering over the years. And although they too are dear friends of ours, we have learned not to have too much to say on appropriate therapies for him!

    With the exception of perhaps early childhood stuttering (below age 6), which is generally easier to treat, I would recommend that anyone seeking help for stuttering seek out a speech pathologist who deals primarily, if not exclusively, with people who stutter, or a university clinic. The reason being that most speech pathologists seldom see or treat people who stutter. I’ve worked in schools, and typically I would only have maybe 1 or 2 students who stutter on my books in a year, out of dozens and dozens of children. So, your run of the mill speech pathologist doesn’t encounter it often enough to develop much expertise. Plus it’s too important to screw up – it can be one of the more debilitating communication disorders if it goes untreated or unsuccessfully treated, as it is generally a life-long condition if not dealt with successfully by the early primary school years. Don’t waste your time mucking around with someone who rarely deals with the disorder!

  13. Gee C@t, I haven’t heard of that problem before, full marks to you for doing everything for your son. Gold star effort.

  14. PeeBee @ #512 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:24 pm

    Gee C@t, I haven’t heard of that problem before, full marks to you for doing everything for your son. Gold star effort.

    Thanks, PeeBee. It always really irked me when certain posters, no longer present, accused me of being work shy, fat or lazy. I had to leave my job to do all I could to help my son end up as normal looking and speaking adult as possible. And I didn’t have a second thought about doing it.

  16. C@tmomma:

    To me he sounds like he has a tongue tie. Not able to fully manipulate his tongue to fully articulate his sounds. As he grew up in impoverished circumstances it may have been the case that his mum couldn’t afford the operation to correct it. This is in the pre-Medibank era.

    Tongue-ties don’t always, or even often, cause speech problems, either! Because often the person (when they’re a child) with one, if it doesn’t fix itself as the tongue grows, will develop compensatory strategies – e.g. elevating their jaw when making sounds that require the tongue tip to touch or approximate the roof of the mouth – so the tongue doesn’t actually need to lift up that much. One of my nephews was born with a tongue-tie, but it hasn’t created any speaking difficulties for him (and my sister didn’t opt to get it surgically corrected).

    A tongue-tie can, however, create other problems, like difficulty with licking an ice-cream cone or… ‘expressing love’. And it also makes dental hygiene (removing food debris stuck in your teeth) more difficult/can predispose you to dental caries.

  21. Watching an excellent long form (58 minute) newly posted interview on Friendly Jordie with John Menadue.

    Discussing Menadue’s time with and opinions on Whitlam, Murdoch, The Dismissal, China in the World, Thatcher, Reagan, Trump.

    Really good stuff.

    https://youtu.be/nhcOLzSutNU

  22. Rick Morton
    @SquigglyRick
    ·
    2m
    About to hop on the wireless with
    @Raf_Epstein
    to discuss today’s #agedcareRC hearing.

    Should be good.

  23. Goodness I thought this blog would be full of rage and anger towards the feds and their failure on managing aged care during covid.

    After all the reams and reams of comments by them about Daniel Andrews and the Vic govt handling of covid

    The silence is deafening

  26. Yep….

    Mad Fucking Witches
    @MadFckingWitch
    ·
    50m
    19 Victorians died today, &
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    deliberately timed a presser to not only muddy the news of those deaths but to give precedence to some obscure 80 year old soldier issue over a terrifying pandemic which threatens 6 million of those he pretends to lead.

    Pure evil.

  28. Victoria @ #517 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    Cat

    Many People live in their own bubble without any real understanding.
    You and your son are champions

    I’m only trying to do my job as his mum, to the best of my ability. I’m not a champion. I brought him into the world, so it fell to me to do all I could for him. 🙂

  29. The prime minister stresses the importance of premiers’ political accountability – but when it comes to the commonwealth, he is searching for a leave pass

    The prime minister was asked about deaths in aged care. Aged care is a commonwealth responsibility. Let’s be clear: if Morrison’s attribution rule was being applied uniformly rather than in transparently arbitrary fashion, we would all be banging on about “the Canberra wave” in aged care.

    In any case, a reporter on Monday pointed out that according to evidence given to the aged care royal commission, 68% of Covid-related deaths in Australia had occurred in nursing homes. Morrison was asked what he would say to the families, given that statistic, and given the commonwealth responsibility.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/10/scott-morrison-gives-masterclass-in-political-malleability-over-aged-care-covid-deaths?CMP=share_btn_tw

  30. doyley:

    I am finding your posts interesting. I have skin in the game, so to speak, as a life long stutterer.

    I have been to speech therapists , voice teachers etc etc etc and all to no avail. I am content now with my stutter and have accepted it is just part of who I am. I copped a lot growing up but as I got older I got bigger and more able to look after myself and as a result others left me alone.

    Oh, I missed this part, sorry.

    I imagine having a stutter makes life more difficult. I loathe public speaking – I can’t imagine how much worse I would feel if I stuttered on top of it.

    In general, there are two broad approaches to stuttering therapy: speak more fluently (re-shape the entire way you speak, every time you open your mouth, though it will feel and probably sound a bit unnatural – at least at first), and stutter more fluently (just change the way you stutter/what you do when a stutter happens). Most treatments offered for adults these days tend to be of the ‘speak more fluently’ variety, and university clinics often e.g. offer ‘intensive’ programs, where you attend for something like 40 hours over 5 consecutive days to learn a new way of speaking, and then follow it up with maintenance sessions. I think the goal is that, with time and practice, you’ll become used to the new way of speaking, and it will (hopefully) happen automatically for you, and you’ll be fluent.

    There are other behavioural methods of treatment, such as self-imposed time-out, where you don’t change the way you speak, but whenever a stutter happens, you stop speaking for a few seconds, and then ease into speaking again. If another stutter happens again, you stop, and continue the process. Eventually, if you track it, you should see your stuttering decrease, as this form of operant treatment (actually a form of ‘punishment’) somehow results in fewer stutters, though we don’t really know why.

    If you seek treatment again, I’d be wary of anyone who offers you a ‘one-size fits all’ approach, and maybe ask to try some of the operant methods such as self-imposed time-out, if you haven’t already.

    Of course, these are all treatments to deal with the overt aspects of stuttering. How you feel about your speech and speaking is also an important part of things, and it’s great that you’re at a point where you’ve accepted that your stutter is just a part of you.

  31. “Didnt want to set a precedent”…..doesnt sound like ”medical advice” to me!

    Aged care did not have a national pandemic and epidemic plan? I used to be in charge of operations for state-wide institutions in a certain sector- and we had a comprehensive plan, updated monthly, with monthly meetings of the state pandemic committee. We had a permanent pandemic and epidemic manager.
    The Feds don’t even pretend to govern in anyones interests but their own.

  32. Morrison sliding around like this makes me mad.

    The prime minister speculated that perhaps another, more positive, lesson could be extracted from the figures. Perhaps the higher death rate in aged care compared with the rest of the community pointed to the success in containing fatalities in less vulnerable sectors of the Australian community. “I don’t think I would agree with the assessment of the implications of the figures you have referred to,” Morrison told the reporter.

    Unfortunately for the prime minister, in a forum outside the press conference, the counsel assisting the aged care royal commission was less glass-half-full. In an opening statement, counsel suggested evidence would show neither the health department nor the aged care regulator developed a Covid-19 plan specifically for aged care – which sounds like a commonwealth-specific deficiency.

  34. Victoria @ #522 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:37 pm

    Goodness I thought this blog would be full of rage and anger towards the feds and their failure on managing aged care during covid.

    After all the reams and reams of comments by them about Daniel Andrews and the Vic govt handling of covid

    The silence is deafening

    I tried my best. 😀

    However, I think the crap is only just starting to hit the NSW fan and I wonder how the media will respond to that? Probably not very much at all as they are out of puff after using up all their energies against Daniel Andrews. 🙄

    As far as Aged Care is concerned I have actually heard rumblings on commercial media placing the blame with the federal government.

    It’s funny how the stars have aligned to have the Aged Care RC going as as COVID-19 ravages the sector.

  35. C@tmomma @ #528 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:45 pm

    Victoria @ #517 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    Cat

    Many People live in their own bubble without any real understanding.
    You and your son are champions

    I’m only trying to do my job as his mum, to the best of my ability. I’m not a champion. I brought him into the world, so it fell to me to do all I could for him. 🙂

    Good for you Cat. It was always of interest to me when someone would point out – with good intent – the sacrifices made by a parent/carer. What were the alternatives? No bravery required – the decisions make themselves.

  37. timbo @ #534 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:54 pm

    C@tmomma @ #528 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:45 pm

    Victoria @ #517 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:31 pm

    Cat

    Many People live in their own bubble without any real understanding.
    You and your son are champions

    I’m only trying to do my job as his mum, to the best of my ability. I’m not a champion. I brought him into the world, so it fell to me to do all I could for him. 🙂

    Good for you Cat. It was always of interest to me when someone would point out – with good intent – the sacrifices made by a parent/carer. What were the alternatives? No bravery required – the decisions make themselves.

    Too right. At times like that, when they present themselves to you, the last thing you should be is selfish or bitter.

    Btw, how’s your son handling things?

  40. Ben Raue has crunched some interesting numbers in the NT election:

    My dataset also includes the gender of the candidates. Labor came close to gender parity, with 14 men and 11 women, as did Territory Alliance, with eleven men and ten women. The CLP are running 18 men and six women. The Greens are running six men and four women. Overall there are 70 men and 41 women running – that’s 63% men.

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/39788

  42. Presumably this will be the key witness from Dept of Health on treatment at Newmarch given by him at a Newmarch webinar

    {Dr James Branley, Infectious Diseases Specialist from NSW Health
    Thanks grant and Welcome to everyone online I’m the head of infectious diseases and microbiology at Nepean Hospital I’ve been working with COVID since late January, early February in a variety of roles and have looked after over 150 patients with coronavirus so I’m starting to feel I am knowing this virus.
    It is a devastating infection. The vast bulk people who catch this virus get through without too much drama and we have a team in Nepean Hospital who’s looking after numerous patients by a mechanism called hospital in the home system. what that means for the vast bulk of patience is that they are looked after in their own home in the familiar surrounding which we fundamentally believe that’s surrounding is really important to people getting well. During the period of time when they’re being looked after in the home, we are monitoring really key indicators to determine if deterioration is occurring and when that’s occurring so that we can intervene with treatments that we have. That model has been working very well. Before the Newmarch experience we have successfully looked after many patients within that
    model. I guess Newmarch has been a significant medical challenge for those doctors and nurses in terms of numerous issues looking after these patients. We have very much stuck to the same approach that we use to treat those patients outside the Aged Care Home. An aged care facility is really particularly challenging as the mortality of this virus in the elderly is much higher. We don’t have specific treatments that knocks the virus out, but we do have some other treatments that we do use to assist in the management of patients. We have supplementation for patients with vitamins… So those treatments that we use in Hospital in the Home outside of the facility, are the same as inside the age care home and the same treatments when someone is admitted to the hospital. Obviously, the hospital has another level of care which is intensive care and ventilator assistance. We don’t rule out anything in terms of clinical care, but we do have a discussion with preferably the patient and their family regarding the appropriateness of really aggressive advanced care. We have built a team for medical support for Newmarch house and I would highlight my role in this. I’m
    not part of Anglicare, I’m not part of the Commonwealth Government, I’m a State employee. I’m part of the public hospital down the road from Newmarch and my attitude is that we’re all in this together we are one family. Newmarch is in my Patch and I’ve advocated that we need to reach out from the state hospital, from the public hospital down the road, and actively provide the support we can to assistance in the process. Those offers have been welcomed by Anglicare and we are providing what we can in that environment. My prime roll for medical care is providing care for the COVID patients and everyday I’ve been going and seeing COVID positive patients and standing by their bedsides. I think it’s important, particularly important where you have a potentially lethal virus that we are not afraid as health workers
    to stand with them in that setting. It is important that we find support for them at this critical time.
    I would like to mention the support structures that we have in place around this situation. Although these patients are being looked after by hospitals in the home, we also have several modules that support around that. We have the geriatric service from Nepean which is providing really good specialist geriatric care. We also have that palliative care service who have been very, very active and helping in the situation where appropriate. We’ve also got respiratory advice in that space, as well intensive care review, if need be. So, we really had an umbrella of very good specialist care. And we have a very close relationship with the PA10 and the GP Sector. The GPs are really good at being on call…]

  43. Peter Collignon says that a reliable Covid vaccine is not possible until about the end of 2021.

    So optimists (and some pollies) can forget a quick snap back.

  44. The federal government is responsible for a horrifying level of labour under-utilization – it is over 20 percent when people who are marginally attached to the labour force are included (marginally attached = want a job but have dropped out of looking because of lack of jobs available).

    An Opposition that was economically literate would be in a strong position to destroy this government. Unfortunately this Opposition isn’t meeting the economic moment. They are not making any effective arguments against the government’s economic policies.

  45. The poor bugger is in Barwon, awaiting his appointment with the gallows, and all the media can do is badmouth him.

    Shame, media, shame.

  46. Nicholas @ #544 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 6:37 pm

    The federal government is responsible for a horrifying level of labour under-utilization – it is over 20 percent when people who are marginally attached to the labour force are included (marginally attached = want a job but have dropped out of looking because of lack of jobs available).

    An Opposition that was economically literate would be in a strong position to destroy this government. Unfortunately this Opposition isn’t meeting the economic moment. They are not making any effective arguments against the government’s economic policies.

    I think Nicky is guilty of horrifying hyperbole and ineffective literacy in his arguments

  47. I had a conversation with a friend tonight in the trailer park, him making reference to Andrew Beaumont’s recent contribution to the “Conversation”; dear moderator was mentioned in favourable terms, too. Perhaps this site is read by more than some might think?

    _________________________________________________________

    lizzie, I missed your post last night. Thanks for the qualification.

  48. Notes of meeting at peak Newmarch

    [Outcomes from Case Management Meeting today:
    PPE
    The meeting included representatives from the NSW Department of Health,
    Nepean Infectious Disease and Control Unit, Nepean Blue Mountains Local
    Health District, NSW State Health Operations Unit, Newmarch, the ACQSC and
    DOH.
    Key outcomes included the following:
    o Aggressive testing regime to be continued to identify and isolate infected
    residents and staff as quickly as possible
    o Service to look at internal cohorting to separate positive and negative
    residents – the Infection Control team will assist the Service with planning
    o NSW Health to continue to provide hospital in the home care for infected
    residents
    o NSW MOH is seeking advice from senior geriatrician on best strategy for
    managing the two infected residents from the dementia care ward and
    reducing infection risk in this ward
    o NSW SHEOC and NSW MOH to put together a plan to assist the service in
    managing the outbreak and a decision tree to help guide decision making
    going forward.]

  49. Victoria @ #522 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 5:41 pm

    Yep….

    Mad Fucking Witches
    @MadFckingWitch
    ·
    50m
    19 Victorians died today, &
    @ScottMorrisonMP
    deliberately timed a presser to not only muddy the news of those deaths but to give precedence to some obscure 80 year old soldier issue over a terrifying pandemic which threatens 6 million of those he pretends to lead.

    Pure evil.

    Pure killer politics.

  50. Rex Douglas @ #485 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    Player One @ #477 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 4:42 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #455 Monday, August 10th, 2020 – 4:27 pm

    People think I’m trolling when I say Ged should be the leader, but I’m serious.

    She has the experience, the connections, the ideology, the engagement and communication skills to do a far better job than anyone else in the party room.

    Yes, either go with Ged or parachute Sally McManus into parliament. They probably still wouldn’t win, but they would at least be seen as a party looking to the future, not living in a past that has gone and is never coming back.

    Some of the ol’ boys in Labor just wouldn’t have another woman as leader.

    Ok so she’s not as dynamic as say Jacinda, but she has the appearance of being genuine which is half the battle for a leader and top policy spokesperson.

    Put Paul Howes in a dress.

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