What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  1. “My comment was not motivated by any perceived political alliance, I have none beyond who I think is best able to form a progressive Government in Australia”

    ***

    Uhhh huh *rolls eyes*

    You have demonstrated over a long period of time that you have a strong prejudice against the Greens and strongly favour the right wing establishment. Your eagerness to make much ado about nothing today has only reinforced this.

  2. Jaeger @ #290 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 1:15 pm

    The mystery is how a stable compound, such as Ammonium Nitrate, can sometimes, apparently, explode on its own. This is not expected, even with the application of heat. Does it? Normal chemistry does not really explain this.

    The MSDS for AN lists “Risk of explosion if heated under confinement” (i.e. thermal decomposition into gases leading to overpressure of the container.) That could have provided the “thump” to detonate the rest. Alternatively, something else in the warehouse provided the trigger.

    It needs to be in a container, under pressure, with a source of external heat. As I said, normally an organic compound is needed to participate in an explosive reaction. I will be very interested to see what the outcome of investigations reveals.

  3. Right, so having one Bumper Sticker is bad – I don’t know what other Unis were like but both the ALP and Socialist Alliance has their crap plus graffiti plastered all over campus.

    But mine was divisive and just bad. Apparently. In car park down by the river.

  4. Clem Attlee
    Apologies, yes it is remote learning. In WA we had limited exposure to this form of educational,delivery, with the eight year old it was not to labor intensive. The 4 year old kindy was another story entirely.
    The big problems was the distraction the kindy kid caused to the older who,was trying to concentrate. Open plan living has some drawbacks when you need to distance yourself from the household.

  5. Also, let’s get something straight. No child in Victoria is being ‘home schooled.’ They are receiving remote and flexible learning. All the work and instructions are uploaded every day in every subject and they have regular Zoom sessions with teachers. Home schooling is something else entirely.

    True, but that doesnt mean it is easy for a parent or parents to manage. Small sacrifices for a large benefit IMO.
    A teacher at our school made very very clear that it was important for parents NOT to take it as homeschooling…. to recognise that they are not trained teachers and thus to go easy on the child AND themselves. The teacher said there are benefits to the remote learning. It can bring families together. So, if the days routine of ‘work at home’ and remote schooling get too much she recommended making some homemade lemonade, going outside, laying on some grass with your children and just having a chat in the sun.

    All the businesses I know were very supportive of their staff and of the inefficiencies that were going to come from the lockdowns and kids learning from home.

  6. Kronomex
    My memories of tv watching we’re the Disney show on Sunday night. The only tv we watched. The tv was for adults not children.
    Mind you, our family had the only tv in the street for a number of years so my friends weren’t watching it either.

  7. When a massive truck explosion shook western Qld (almost 6 years ago now)
    https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/year-massive-truck-explosion-rocked-western-qld/2764015/

    A YEAR ago tomorrow an explosion so fierce it blew apart a major highway bridge and destroyed trucks rocked western Queensland.

    A truck carrying 52 tonnes of ammonium nitrate rolled on the Mitchell Hwy the evening of Friday, September 5, last year.

    The truck driver, a 33-year-old from Mackay, was fortuitously pulled from the overturned vehicle by passers-by before it exploded.

  8. I think Karvelas’ ambitions to be in the thick of it on the job every day is getting in the way of her responsibilities as a parent.

  9. Bucephalus @ #303 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 1:33 pm

    Right, so having one Bumper Sticker is bad – I don’t know what other Unis were like but both the ALP and Socialist Alliance has their crap plus graffiti plastered all over campus.

    But mine was divisive and just bad. Apparently. In car park down by the river.

    Buce, I think the key point is that you said you weren’t really advocating a position, just trying to annoy people of a different persuasion.

  10. Right, so having one Bumper Sticker is bad – I don’t know what other Unis were like but both the ALP and Socialist Alliance has their crap plus graffiti plastered all over campus.
    But mine was divisive and just bad. Apparently. In car park down by the river.

    Well…. you took that well.

    Those student political twerps were genuine in what they believed in (except the one trying to get into the pants of the cute socialist chick ;-)). You parading the Joh sticker designed to get someone angry for the pure purpose of…. getting them angry? is hardly genuine. See the difference?
    Look, its not just you who do it. I am sure I have. Plenty on the left do it. It is a refuge for those who arent quite sure what they believe in or why or arent able to concisely explain their beliefs… they resort to saying, well, at least I am not a Greenie. Or at least I am not a RW looney. They end up defining themselves by who they arent. And yes, that is dangerously divisive.

  11. Simon Katich
    I suppose the experience of work from home will differ from person to person and will be heavily affected by the bosses attitude.
    Those bosses that micromanage and have no trust in their staff will be looking for the negatives
    The bosses who see this as just a new way of working that may bring benefits to both sides of the equation will be less harsh.
    The employees that act in good faith and do there best will also be matched by those who find lots of excuses to shirk their responsibilities.

    As in all things related to this pandemic it is not about the individual person or business but about the collective good.

  12. Spray says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 1:41 pm

    It’s not like the Socialist Alliance graffiti and posters were much different.

  13. Firefox @ #302 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    “My comment was not motivated by any perceived political alliance, I have none beyond who I think is best able to form a progressive Government in Australia”

    ***

    Uhhh huh *rolls eyes*

    You have demonstrated over a long period of time that you have a strong prejudice against the Greens and strongly favour the right wing establishment. Your eagerness to make much ado about nothing today has only reinforced this.

    My feelings for the Greens as a political party stem from them being an ineffective mechanism for progressive change with no ability to form a Government, nothing else.

  14. Yabba @ #274 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 1:03 pm

    The mystery is how a stable compound, such as Ammonium Nitrate, can sometimes, apparently, explode on its own. This is not expected, even with the application of heat.

    Perhaps not relevant, but interesting:

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213343717306425

    If I understand correctly the AN could have been destabilized by whatever else it was sharing the warehouse with in the however many years that it was sitting there (and/or during the few preceding minutes of fire).

    Although the video clips of the event show smaller/secondary explosions occurring before the big explosion, so it may not have exploded “on its own”.

  15. “My feelings for the Greens as a political party stem from them being an ineffective mechanism for progressive change with no ability to form a Government, nothing else.”

    ***

    Then your feelings are based on falsehoods as The Greens are the most effective – indeed often the only – mechanism for progressive change in Australia.

    The Greens are also part of the current ACT Government and have been part of numerous other governments in the past, including the 2010 Bandt/Gillard gov.

  16. I think Karvelas’ ambitions to be in the thick of it on the job every day is getting in the way of her responsibilities as a parent.

    No way would I question her parenting. It is a bloody hard job and I am sure I dont have the answers to the best way of doing it. I doubt there is a ‘best way.’
    I am certainly prepared to question her journalism.

  17. Quoll @ #306 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 1:40 pm

    When a massive truck explosion shook western Qld (almost 6 years ago now)
    https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/year-massive-truck-explosion-rocked-western-qld/2764015/

    A YEAR ago tomorrow an explosion so fierce it blew apart a major highway bridge and destroyed trucks rocked western Queensland.

    A truck carrying 52 tonnes of ammonium nitrate rolled on the Mitchell Hwy the evening of Friday, September 5, last year.

    The truck driver, a 33-year-old from Mackay, was fortuitously pulled from the overturned vehicle by passers-by before it exploded.

    Lots of diesel from the overturned truck.

  18. a r says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 1:49 pm

    “Although the video clips of the event show smaller/secondary explosions occurring before the big explosion, so it may not have exploded “on its own”.”

    There was a warehouse fire involving fireworks or other flammable/explosive goods- the AN explosion appears to have been set off by that. It’s not dissimilar to the Truck Crash explosion in Queensland – the vehicle fire caused the AN to detonate. That AN wasn’t all mixed with diesel but a little may have been in the crash.

  19. Firefox @ #318 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 11:57 am

    “My feelings for the Greens as a political party stem from them being an ineffective mechanism for progressive change with no ability to form a Government, nothing else.”

    ***

    Then your feelings are based on falsehoods as The Greens are the most effective – indeed often the only – mechanism for progressive change in Australia.

    The Greens are also part of the current ACT Government and have been part of numerous other governments in the past, including the 2010 Bandt/Gillard gov.

    Really?

    What have been their successes under Coalition Governments?

  20. there are no green state or federal govts…. easier to be all things to all people
    the only thing a green mp cannot do is support a lnp govt…… the gst caused the ad’s to disappear

  21. “Really?

    What have been their successes under Coalition Governments?”

    ***

    As we have seen during the current Coalition Government, the Greens step up and become the de facto opposition party and lead the resistance against their conservative agenda. Opposing the far-right is part of who we are.

  22. I’ve already seen claims that the Beruit explosion was the Israelis, was Iranian Missiles, couldn’t be Ammonium Nitrate, is related to the imminent decision in The Hague court case about the assassination of the Lebanese PM etc.

  23. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:12 pm

    “Opposing the far-right is part of who we are.”

    Calling the LNP far right is just stupidity.

  24. Firefox @ #325 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 12:12 pm

    “Really?

    What have been their successes under Coalition Governments?”

    ***

    As we have seen during the current Coalition Government, the Greens step up and become the de facto opposition party and lead the resistance against their conservative agenda. Opposing the far-right is part of who we are.

    😆 😆 😆

    So nothing?

  25. The Greens are a niche political product, like One Nation, the Nationals or single issue parties. The Liberal Party (including its various brands – LNP…) together with Labor are aimed at the mass market.

  26. Re Beirut explosion. I should again point out that only a small proportion of the original 2000 plus tonnes would have exploded. If 2,000 tonnes went up, that would be equivalent to around 1,000 tonnes of TNT. That would have produced far more devastation.

  27. For those in Perth who have seen the Beruit explosion- have look at how close Garden Island with its ammunition bunkers is to Coogee and Fremantle.

  28. Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:13 pm

    Firefox says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:12 pm

    “Opposing the far-right is part of who we are.”

    Calling the LNP far right is just stupidity.
    __________________
    Maybe. But for some in the LNP they could be described as “far right on good behavior.” Or ‘muffled hard right’.

  29. The Greens have helped to block some of the worst of Coaltion plans over recent years including much of the 2014 budget, industrial relations ”reform”, tertiary fee ”deregulation”…

  30. Steve777 @ #332 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 2:21 pm

    The Greens have helped to block some of the worst of Coaltion plans over recent years including much of the 2014 budget, industrial relations ”reform”, tertiary fee ”deregulation”…

    And if those Senators were Labor the same result would have been achieved and a lot better ones as well.

  31. I really take my hat off to Andrews. He fronts up each day to deliver bad news, not shying away from MSM questioning, and is obviously on top of his brief. They’ll be a time down the track where the blame will be apportioned, but he’s doing what needs to be done in such a crisis. And I dare say that Palaszczuk’s reelection prospects won’t suffer from her decision to close the border with NSW and the ACT.

  32. nath says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:20 pm

    “Maybe. But for some in the LNP they could be described as “far right on good behavior.” Or ‘muffled hard right’.”

    That’s no different to acknowledging that some in the ALP are actually socialists as per the Party Constitution and the Greens are full of Trots.

    The LNP policy outcomes are generally centrist – that’s why they keep winning elections.

  33. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:24 pm

    “And I dare say that Palaszczuk’s reelection prospects won’t suffer from her decision to close the border with NSW and the ACT.”

    How dare you accuse her of making a political decision.

  34. “Calling the LNP far right is just stupidity.”

    ***

    Maybe from your perspective. I always did find it funny though when those on the extreme far-right of the Coalition called “moderates” like Turnbull lefties. Ha! Good one! Not even close.

  35. Good to see that the Andrews Government is fully cooperating with their Judicial Inquiry by claiming privilege on numerous documents requested by the Inquiry.

  36. On a political compass diagram with social (authoritarian-liberal) and economic axes, I’d place the LNP firmly in the authoritarian right quadrant.

    Socially, it’s a broad church, varying from very conservative / religious right to centrist with some minor spillige into liberal, with moderately conservative being dominant. Economically it’s all on the right, varying from slightly wet / Keynesian to market fundamentalist. Overlaying all this is a strong populist tendency.

    Regarding the PM, he’s an opportunist with authoritarian / Thatcherite instincts but he’s also a pragmatist who within bounds and for short periods will be as Keynesian or liberal as necessary to deal with the situation in hand and especially to keep or gain vote share.

  37. Bucephalus:

    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:27 pm

    [‘How dare you accuse her of making a political decision.’]

    Well, I’m not suggesting that politics is/was uppermost in her thoughts as there is evidence that NSW could easily go the way of Victoria. If she gets a bounce from her decision, that’s politics.

  38. This is a really perceptive comment and reply to the Guardian article by John Crace about the Trump-Swan interview:

    Its this sort of thing that suggests why Biden doesn’t seem to be very enthusiastic about debating Trump. There really is nothing to debate — there is no policy, just a stream of assertions that were tenuous at best but now are just meaningless. You can’t converse with, much less, debate Trump. All you can do is provide raw material for what’s left of his campaign team to ‘adjust’ to prove some negative point.

    JonP2 to martinusher 11h ago

    Absolutely correct. Arguing with Trump is like arguing with a religious zealot. They have their minds made up and won’t be confused by facts. They simply counter with their faith based beliefs. a pointless exercise.

    The Trump cult base is no better. They will defend their great leader even if it kills them, and it likely will.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/04/donald-trump-tv-interview-john-crace-sketch#comment-142797142

  39. “Yes, but that doesn’t sound like they are progressing their agenda.”

    ***

    Preventing the Coalition and their puppeteers from destroying the country is very much a part of our agenda.

  40. ”Calling the LNP far right is just stupidity.”

    Like calling Labor people ”Communist”, which we’ve had to put up with over the decades.

  41. Labor and Green should divert the energy wasted attacking each other towards the actual enemy:

    [insert unflattering pictures here of Morrison, Abbort, Frydenberg and Dutton looking stupid / sinister / evil …]

  42. “”Calling the LNP far right is just stupidity.”

    Like calling Labor people ”Communist”, which we’ve had to put up with over the decades.”

    ***

    Great point.

  43. No surprise the Reserve left rates as is.
    The question is when/if they will go to zero.
    Not forgetting interest rates were at record lows before Covid-19, another indictment on the terrible economic management of Morrison and Frydenberg, who are clearly using Covid as a shield to hide their ineptness behind.

  44. Steve777 says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 2:38 pm

    “Like calling Labor people ”Communist”, which we’ve had to put up with over the decades.”

    The DLP were wrong?

    I’ve never understood the difference between Socialism and Communism but the ALP Constitution does say:

    “ The Australian Labor Party is a democratic socialist party and has the objective of the democratic socialisation of industry, production, distribution and exchange”

    Leaves you guys pretty open to the sledge.

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