Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential Research at long last emerges from the voting intention wilderness, although its results going forward will be carefully rationed.

Another pollster returns from the naughty corner today to chance its arm at voting intention, which now makes three if you count the erratically published Roy Morgan series (which I incline not to myself). That pollster is Essential Research, which has remained prodigious with attitudinal polling since the May 2019 federal election, and has maintained its monthly leadership ratings, while offering no clue as to its voting intention numbers beyond the inclusion of raw figures in reporting its sub-samples.

Unhappily for we salivating dogs in the psephoblogosphere, these figures will only be published on a quarterly basis. This appears to mean that every sixth or seventh fortnightly Essential Research release will provide the fortnightly voting intention results of the preceding period. This, the pollster says, will “mitigate the tendency to report on minor movements as some sort of political horse race”. This latest release confuses the issue by providing weekly numbers through June, but I believe this is an artefact of a temporary move to weekly polling to track reactions to COVID-19.

Essential will also make a point of not excluding the undecided from its headline results, arguing the conventional practice entails a “lack of nuance”, though no doubt rivals will accuse the pollster of hedging its bets. The pollster still follows the conventional practice of prodding the initially undecided with a follow-up that asks who they are leaning towards. A proportion of these persist in declining a response, but remain in the sample with responses included for the other survey questions.

The latest primary vote numbers show the Coalition on 38% (up one), Labor on 35% (up one), the Greens on 9% (down one), One Nation on 4% (steady) and others on 6% (steady). If the undecided were excluded, the results would be Coalition 41.3%, Labor 38.0%, Greens 9.8% and One Nation 4.3%, and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred (for the sake of consistency with other pollsters, it’s the latter figure that I will continue to use in my headlines). Compared with the 2019 election result, this leaves Labor up nearly five points but the Coalition hardly changed, with the slack taken up from smaller parties and independents.

Labor with 47% of the decided two-party vote (up one on a fortnight ago) to the Coalition’s 45% (steady), leaving an outstanding 8% potentially to be called on to fill the gap between the reported numbers and an actual result. The pollster’s two-party numbers look to be consistent with a 2019 election preferences allocation, although the report is not specific as to whether this method or respondent allocation was used. In his piece in The Guardian, Peter Lewis of Essential Research explains: “We will now be asking participants who vote for a minor party to indicate a preferred major party. Only when they do not provide a preference will we allocate based on previous flows.“

These results are obviously a lot better for Labor than what has come through from Newspoll and Morgan, and are clearly an established peculiarity of the series. Where headline results over the past two months have shown Labor matching or exceeding their primary vote at the election despite the inclusion of a 7% to 9% undecided component, the Coalition have been coming in two to four points lower. The Greens are reckoned to be about where they were and the election and One Nation a little higher, though the latter is complicated by their tendency to only run in selected seats.

Also featured in the latest poll:

• The federal government’s ratings for COVID-19 response are unchanged at 64% good and 16% poor, and the combined response for state governments has shifted only negligibly, with good and poor both up a point to 65% to 18% respectively.

• The small-sample results for individual state governments show the Victorian government up four points on both good and poor, to 53% and 30% respectively. This still leaves it with the weakest figures out of the mainland state governments, with the Western Australian government recovering its title of strongest performer (up five to 82%) from South Australia (down three to 76%).

• On JobKeeper and JobSeeker, 69% supported businesses being retested for eligibility, with 9% opposed; 66% supported continuing payments for six months, with 12% opposed; 54% supported reducing the amount of the payments, with 21% opposed; but only 29% supported excluding casual workers, with 40% opposed.

• Forty-three per cent rated themselves very concerned about COVID-19, up seven on a fortnight ago, with quite concerned down four to 44%, not that concerned down three to 9% and not at all concerned up one to 4%.

• Fifty-six per cent favour a “suppression strategy” and 44% an “elimination strategy”.

• Sixty-eight per cent support mandatory face masks. with 13% opposed; 19% believe them very effective, 46% quite effective, 20% not that effective and 5% not effective at all.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1058.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,645 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 33
1 24 25 26 33
  1. Bucephalus says:
    Friday, July 31, 2020 at 1:19 pm
    Nonsays:
    Friday, July 31, 2020 at 1:09 pm

    “Who is the WA leader of the opposition again?

    Nobody knows and nobody cares”

    Sounds much like when The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk MP was Queensland Opposition Leader driving a minibus with all her members plus a few spare seats.

    Nothing is forever.

    Mark MacGowan is no Campbell Newman.

  2. The Liberals in WA have overplayed a weak hand in relation to COVID in this State.

    They are really seen as a menace to public welfare and the economy. I hope they are severely punished by the electorate in March next year.

  3. My local bellwether are my boiler-maker/welder mates. Their fortunes ebb and flow with the State of the economy generally. They’re just recovering their orders after the COVID lockdown slump. They lost nearly all their sales. But things have picked up again and their workshop is open most of the time again.

    If they were forced to shut down again because of a resumption of the pandemic they would hold the responsible party to account. The Liberals are dicing with the economic security of hundreds of thousands of workers and small firms.

    They are reckless. They should hope against hope that the HC finds against Palmer and Morrison.

  4. Fulvio Sammutsays:
    Friday, July 31, 2020 at 1:18 pm
    “It’s amazing that Barnett so ignominiously got the boot then, Buce.

    The voters are so stupid and unkind.”

    Australian voters have a habit of turfing out old administrations. I don’t think Barnett expected to win the previous election. I personally don’t like him. He was very arrogant and the media reflected that a lot in the lot couple of years. As noted above – The West Australian, supposedly a one eyed Liberal Rag – endorsed the ALP.

    None of that disproves the facts about real wage rises for Public Servants and still nobody has told me what spending should not have occurred. Which hospitals should not have been built. Which freeways not improved. Which schools not built.

    Voters are neither stupid nor unkind. The fact that those on the Left continue to use those epithets is one of the reasons that they keep losing – treating the voters like they don’t know what’s good for themselves.

  5. Historyintime @ #1195 Friday, July 31st, 2020 – 11:17 am

    I just don’t see how you can rationally believe Dan Andrews has done a good job. At some point it is about results not intentions or effort.

    Well if he hasn’t then no leader has, after all he’s followed the expert advice.

    As for results, there are few absolutes when dealing with this virus.

    Following all the guidelines doesn’t mean you won’t catch the virus, it just minimises your chances of doing so.

  6. mikehilliard says:
    Friday, July 31, 2020 at 1:20 pm
    “How about Morrison canning parliament and setting up commissions run by his mates.”

    The one that had The Honourable Greg Combet AM on it?

  7. Much earlier there was a report about $42 Billion being drawn from super accounts at the instigation of the Morrison Government. We know conservatives hate super that is not in an account controlled by their big business mates. There was more than “giving people access to their money in hard times” behind this decision. They used this as an excuse to cruel successful members owned super funds, something they have been trying to do for years.

    Obviously this will have an enormous impact in decades to come when those who withdrew their savings retire. Their only option will be to rely on the pension, another target of welfare hating conservaties. This is typical of their thinking, act short term now to try to look good and kick the problem into the future for someone else to worry about.

  8. “Well if he hasn’t then no leader has, after all he’s followed the expert advice.”

    I don’t know whether that is true or not. However, even if it is, he’s there to make the big picture decisions and the right decisions can often mean not following what the technical specialists say.

    Bad luck is not an excuse at this level.

  9. Michael Koziol
    @michaelkoziol
    ·
    5m
    Breaking: The Australian Club – a private gentlemen’s club frequented by former prime ministers – has closed its doors after a staff member tested positive to COVID-19

  10. mundosays:
    Friday, July 31, 2020 at 1:14 pm
    Non @ #1188 Friday, July 31st, 2020 – 1:11 pm

    The Liberal campaign last year was the difference between winning and losing. They smashed it. Absolutely smashed it.

    The Labor campaign last year was the difference between winning and losing. They didn’t smash it. Absolutely unsmashed it.
    ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
    Yup. The Labor campaign so spectacularly unsmashed you and almost everybody else couldn’t believe the odds offered by the gambling companies until they had to close their books and pay out those backing an LNP win because it was so obvious after the terrible Labor campaign.

    Even the sagacious Mundo was decrying the Labor campaign and already starting up his Scroter chant.

    Before the election. Afterwards, when Labor won as i expected despite their awful campaign, gosh you all looked silly.

  11. Historyintime

    the right decisions can often mean not following what the technical specialists say.

    Well, that’s certainly true of the LNP and look where that’s got us. They never listen to experts.

  12. No Buce, the one chaired by the former Fortescue Metals chief Nev Power, the one the PM’s office refuses to allow FOI access to.

  13. Lizzie

    Nice try schweethart, with the dog and a stick.

    It’ll take heaps more than that to stop the current craptic flow.

    Try a bunny or a pussacat, might do the trick.

    Good luck,

    Signed Warthog Willie

  14. Historyintime @ #1212 Friday, July 31st, 2020 – 11:44 am

    “Well if he hasn’t then no leader has, after all he’s followed the expert advice.”

    I don’t know whether that is true or not. However, even if it is, he’s there to make the big picture decisions and the right decisions can often mean not following what the technical specialists say.

    Bad luck is not an excuse at this level.

    As I wrote earlier luck is an inherent part of dealing with viral outbreaks, so I would disagree with you there.

  15. Surprise!

    7NEWS Brisbane
    @7NewsBrisbane
    · 54m
    .@CliveFPalmer has announced that the @UnitedAusParty will be contesting seats in the upcoming state election in Queensland. Greg Dowling will be leading the state campaign. http://7NEWS.com.au #qldpol #7NEWS

  16. Can you provide me with an exhaustive list of the Freeways, Hospitals, and Schools built during Barnett’s reign, Buce? Ones that had not already been commenced, budgeted, or contracted for by the previous Labor Government?

    My recollection is of unfettered wastage of taxpayers funds on rural rorts, cutbacks on urgent infrastructure spending, spending on lavish “lifestyle” improvements on Premier’s offices, open house on Local Authority corruption, bureaucratic bungles and corruption, failure to protect and preserve tax income and Royalties, turning a financial surplus into an 11 billion dollar debt, oh, and of course Roe 8, his own personal Highway to Hell.

  17. Godfrey Moase
    @gemoase
    · 2h
    Got another employer who has 2 positive COVID cases in their workplace in Melbourne who is even refusing to shut for a deep clean. Capitalism sucks!

  18. Emergency Physician
    Stephen Parnis
    @SParnis
    ·
    2h
    I see no alternative to longer, tighter restrictions to drive down #COVID19Vic numbers, so let’s all prepare for that. Let’s not waste time & energy on ideology & fingerpointing. #HealthCareWorkers are doing our bit, we need all Victorians to do theirs.

  19. She was warned at the time and refused to listen.

    The secretary of the Department of Social Services, Kathryn Campbell, has apologised for any hurt or harm caused by the robodebt program.

  20. TPOF @ #1186 Friday, July 31st, 2020 – 1:03 pm

    Taylormade says:
    Friday, July 31, 2020 at 12:55 pm
    The moniker Dictator Dan came about ……..

    ______________________________

    Not ‘came about’. Invented by a Liberal PR firm which cared more about winning than the public good. As all Liberals do.

    Well, it should be pointed out that Labor exhibits the same trait, although possibly not to the same extent. I think it is probably a trait common to all political parties.

  21. I’m watching a Bill Murray movie St. Vincent. Totally predictable, just like me.

    Lotta fun, better than a poke in the eye with Poll Bludger.

    Keep my place until the rainbows return.

  22. I know I wont. It’s been pissing me off for weeks now and I still am as angry as before.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Peter Klages
    @PeterKlages
    Andrew Bolt has contributed to the difficulty authorities have had getting a clear message out. He continues to do so. Andrew Bolt, the Vic Opposition and News Corp newspapers have brought us to where we are. Never forget that, Victoria. Ever.

  23. What!!!

    Ewart Dave Trumpet
    @davidbewart
    ·
    43s
    #robodebt hearing is stood down because stuart robert has claimed privilege . the issue is being determined in camera by this secret government

  24. Two 30 year old doctors in ICU in Victoria.
    Yesterday there was a story about the different masks available to health care workers. Both Vic Health but different interpretations of the guidelines.
    Today Dan Andrews suggested that the data suggests not all health workers were infected in the community.
    Morrison wants to blame all Victoria’s problems on community spread, he may soon lose his argument.

  25. Bucephalus

    Voters are neither stupid nor unkind. The fact that those on the Left continue to use those epithets is one of the reasons that they keep losing – treating the voters like they don’t know what’s good for themselves.

    Oh I concur with this. You’ve never heard me describe voters in those terms. We have to commence with the premise that we’re all equally capable of informing ourselves and exercising our judgement. If we cannot subscribe to this we have to disavow democracy.

    Voters are not to be taken as fools. Those of us who appeal for their support should remember that. We hope to serve voters and owe them respect.

    The one thing I’ve learned from door-knocking is that voters should never be under-estimated.

  26. Lizzie
    Love the freedom cafe post.
    I think making fun of the people who have weird ideologies is far more effective than trying a rational discussion

  27. Carole Lee
    @Redcar51
    ·
    26m
    All clear now. This from the 60 minutes program they are doing an expose re security guards in VIC hotels by Sarah Arbo. No wonder she was at the press conference. Subtle aren’t they?

  28. I wondered how long it would take them to think of this.

    Andrew Lund
    @andrew_lund
    · 1h
    Opposition Leader @michaelobrienmp says the government should consider ankle monitoring bracelets for confirmed Covid-19 cases found not be to home. “Parliament’s back next week, if we need to change the law, let’s change the law” @9NewsMelb

  29. What happens when you achieve WuFlu elimination ? Headlines you never thought you’d ever see 🙂

    Auckland Airport busier than Changi Airport and Hong Kong

    Auckland’s June numbers were just 28 per cent behind Heathrow where there were 320,283 passengers for the month.
    In June, Brisbane Airport had 184,616 passengers, 20 per cent lower than Auckland Airport, while Sydney had 172,000 passengers, 25 per cent lower.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12352625

  30. Historyintime @ #1196 Friday, July 31st, 2020 – 1:17 pm

    I just don’t see how you can rationally believe Dan Andrews has done a good job. At some point it is about results not intentions or effort.

    You are correct re the results.

    Daniel Andrews actions such as cavorting with hotel quarantine guests, moonlighting as an abattoir worker and house party organiser has undoubtedly resulted in this second wave catastrophe.

    Even today, he’s still turning up at working spreading his virus to others in his contact.

    RESIGN !!!

  31. lizzie @ #1241 Friday, July 31st, 2020 – 2:41 pm

    I wondered how long it would take them to think of this.

    Andrew Lund
    @andrew_lund
    · 1h
    Opposition Leader @michaelobrienmp says the government should consider ankle monitoring bracelets for confirmed Covid-19 cases found not be to home. “Parliament’s back next week, if we need to change the law, let’s change the law” @9NewsMelb

    That’s a good idea, but I suspect the mastermind behind that proposition is Tim Smith.

    I’m with Taylormade – Tim Smith has the strength and common sense to fix this mess. A shame he’s not the Premier.

Comments Page 25 of 33
1 24 25 26 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *