Three bits of polling news from around the place, including some rare intelligence from Western Australia, which has still only had one public poll of voting intention in the three-and-a-half years since the 2017 election:
• Roy Morgan made one of its occasional random drops of the federal voting intention polling it conducts weekly, crediting the Coalition with a lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 when it last published figures a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 43.5%, Labor is down one to 33.5%, the Greens are up half to 11.0% and One Nation is down 1.5% to 2.5%. Also included are state two-party breakdowns with the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales, 58-42 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia and 53-47 in South Australia, and Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 58-42 in Tasmania. The poll was conducted online and by phone from a sample of 2589 respondents over the weekends of July 11-12 and July 18-19.
• Today’s News Corp tabloids ($) have results of a national YouGov survey of 2307 respondents concerning COVID-19, of which the most interesting finding is that only 6% consider current restrictions too tough, compared with 33% for too lenient and 60% for about right. Despite variable national experience of COVID-19 at the present time, results were fairly consistent across the states, with Victoria only slightly outperforming the national “too tough” response at 11%. The poll was conducted from July 15-20.
• The West Australian reported that polling conducted for “a prominent business group” by Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, producing the remarkable finding that Mark McGowan’s state Labor government held a 66-34 lead. The poll was conducted back in May, but there is little reason to think the McGowan balloon would have burst since then. The poll recorded approval ratings of 86% for Mark McGowan, 64% for Scott Morrison but only 25% for state Liberal leader Liza Harvey, though the latter would have a much higher uncommitted rating.
• Staying on the subject of WA polling that’s perhaps not as fresh as it might be, Painted Dog Research published leadership ratings early last month that escaped this site’s notice at the time. These showed Mark McGowan with a satisfaction rating of 87% (including 63% very satisfied) with only 4% dissatisfied (2% very dissatisfied); Scott Morrison on 67% satisfied (33% very) and 19% dissatisfied (7% very); Anthony Albanese on 27% satisfied (7% very) and 29% unsatisfied (12% very); and Liza Harvey on 19% satisfied (4% very) and 37% dissatisfied (17% very) (UPDATE: For what it’s worth, this is metropolitan only). The poll was conducted June 5-7 from a sample of 800. The West Australian reported at the time that it understood Labor internal polling showed similar results.
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:10 pm
…
Australia has the most expensive energy prices in the world even though we have the cheapest source. Cost of transmission is a factor, but it is greed that drives our energy market, not the cost of generation.
There are major network upgrades happening at the moment, they have to happen as the network has to change. To make things worse, the last major build occurred in the 60s and 70s a lot of it has to be replaced.
South
I happened to see an image of Albo on twitter with some people yesterday. All smiles stating wtte that this was a climate Meeting of some sort.
WTF.. that is not what is needed right at this moment,
Albo needs to get with the bloody program.
Steve777 @ #1141 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:13 pm
‘Albo needs to be preparing for an election’
Go easy, Albo is still preparing for opposition. Sheesh, give the bloke a break.
mundo is close to being classed a deadshit, like his kennel mate LVT
Always time to turn it around, Comrade.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:13 pm
frednk says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:08 pm
If I’m ignorant then show me the facts where a system that has a large amount of wind and solar now has a lower cost of power than when coal was the dominant power source.
You don’t develop the future by wishing for the past.
Bucephalus @ #1122 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 11:59 am
True. Luckily, we will have that in Snowy 2.0.
The only thing your argument lacks is any inclusion of the cost of the C02 emissions. Once you take that into account, it is “game over” for coal.
Or at least it would be in any sensible world 🙁
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:10 pm
“Claims of cheaper power have not been proven.
Australia has the most expensive energy prices in the world even though we have the cheapest source. Cost of transmission is a factor, but it is greed that drives our energy market, not the cost of generation.”
Tell me – when it’s night and there’s almost no wind across the South East of South Australia how is it powered?
Bucephalus, like Angus Taylor, seems to think the point of renewables is merely the price.
sprocket_ @ #1148 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:16 pm
Good to hear from you Sprocko!
frednk @ #1148 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:14 pm
Our transmission network was already “gold plated” – we have been paying for that for years. Now, we are apparently required to pay to have the gold removed and replaced with platinum 🙁
Bucephalus @ #1154 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:17 pm
Hydro.
Victoria @ #1149 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:15 pm
You do realise Sprocko can read this and is keeping a very close eye on everyone? It’s not too late to turn it around.
lizzie @ #1155 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:18 pm
In a neoliberal economy, this is true. No social or environmental costs considered.
Player One says:
This is a myth.
———————–
PlayerOne
Australia’s population on a cost benefit analysis is small and doesn’t justify a large scale manufacturing sector. Australia does manufacture on a small scale but the days of mass manufacturing are long gone without a sizable population boost.
For eg Does anyone here know the average cost of getting a placement in a private aged care facility?
I’m off to run a few errands. Plenty of time for people to come up with an answer.
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:17 pm
“ Luckily, we will have that in Snowy 2.0.“
$5 billion for 2GW of generation that runs out in a week if the storage is full.
You could build the same capacity in a HELE Coal Plant for about the same price and it would work virtually 24/7/365 – even during a drought.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:17 pm
…
Tell me – when it’s night and there’s almost no wind across the South East of South Australia how is it powered?
1) The second interconnect is going in to Tasmania.
2) Snowy 2.
3) Gas peaking.
4) All the other energy storage system that are planned. Mines, open cats, water running up and down hill are common proposals.
As I said it would be better if cultural worriers such as yourself stayed out of it.
In a energy system spread over a large area generation collapse doesn’t happen often.
Ireland a smaller grid than ours ( which has a high penetration of renewable and are moving to 70%) put in a large pump water system to support their grid. They are now arguing it was not needed.
So a checklist of Morrison failures so far has:
– Ruby Princess and airport revolva door dumping infected travellers on the local populace
– going to the footy, get out from under the doona – encourage all to lower their guard
– overegging the COVIDSafe app, proven to be useless
– asleep at the wheel about the high risk, Commonwealth funded and regulated private aged care
Ticking timebombs include
– job keeper and job seeker
– record government debt
– Thatcher and Reagen response to future economic settings
Poor Sutton is patiently explaining to journo that a neg test after 3 days means nothing and 14 days quarantine is necessary. She doesn’t get it. Argument.
Because everything in journo world has to be instant or someone is at FAULT.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1161 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:23 pm
You should tell that to all the smaller countries than us. They apparently understand there are things more important than screwing the last dollar out of your cost/benefit analysis. There is resilience. There is robustness. There is adaptability in having a trained workforce. There is flexibility in the face of change. There are so many spin-off social and economic benefits only an idiot would deliberately “hollow out” their own economy and make their country dependent on just one or two industries.
In a world where both fossil fuels and tourism are dying in the bum, how stupid do we now look?
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:21 pm
“Hydro.”
There’s no hydro in SA. 80% or more of the power that it imports when wind and solar fail is coal power.
It is simplistic to see government problems on whether something is owned by the state or not because ultimately the government makes the rules but for some reason many on the left don’t seem to know that and act as if the private operators are acting independent of government which they do not.
Lizzie
Surely the journos should understand by now how it bloody well works.
Deary me.
We are doomed.
Anyhoo off to do errands
Talk later
Bucephalus @ #1164 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:27 pm
Sure. And when you costed the C02 emissions in, you would have to charge more for your electricity. I guess you wouldn’t mind that?
Bucephalus @ #1170 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:30 pm
You have heard of the state interconnectors?
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:30 pm
Player One says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:21 pm
“Hydro.”
There’s no hydro in SA. 80% or more of the power that it imports when wind and solar fail is coal power.
Actually not true, SA has a lot of gas peaking. Coal will not be the major fuel in the 30 years. We need a stronger electrical network for sure.
You don’t build the future by looking at the past.
Latest Essential Poll.
https://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Essential%20Report%20-%2028%20July&utm_content=Essential%20Report%20-%2028%20July+CID_968f9f9d02038d5ca50d956387d86ffb&utm_source=campaign%20monitor&utm_term=View%20the%20Essential%20Report
Bucephalus
As I said initially, things would go a lot better if ignorant sods such as yourself stayed out of the debate.
Rule 1 for peak bodies – say something, say anything
[The Australian Medical Association has called for a royal commission into the entirety of Victoria’s response to the outbreak]
PlayerOne
Smaller countries that neighbor larger countries like members of the EU are able to expand their domestic market beyond their borders.
Player One @ #1173 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:32 pm
Putting an acronym in front of “Coal Plant” means you can pretend like the emissions don’t exist. 🙁
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/07/26/polls-federal-morgan-yougov-covid-19-wa-miscellany/comment-page-23/#comment-3453667
I note the recent polls in WA and across the ditch.
I’d be very surprised if the opposition would want to be seen to be playing pollyTICs in the midst of a pandemic, with or without a national cabinet if not a national unity cabinet.
Even if not in parliament, not even on social media or in the media.
Besides, the more rope PM 5/ 6 since 2007 has …, rorts (Michael West has a … list), changes to retirement, flooding and fires, Wuflu borders, junta, aged care [killing off those retired aged that can explain to baby boomers or gen X how Reaganomics/ Thatcherism did first time around …, even Murdoch Entertainment’s Bolt and Van Onselen are asking questions about delays and constitution responsibilty], Reaganomics/ Thatcherism, …
I’d imagine the ‘fed gov’ will try and head towards opportunity/ jobs and various scare campaigns, rather than cost of living, education, environment, healthcare, human rights, infrastructure …, if they can’t make feel people better off, they’ll be like the architect of Gallipoli after WW2.
Presumably the list for the opposition to ask questions about is quite long and will need to be reprioritised, and be used to position its policies, competencies, changes to services clearly beyond mere talking points.
Looks like Gladys won’t be able to blame any increase in covid-19 numbers on the BLM rally.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1179 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:37 pm
As can we.
I see Buce is on the ACCI/IPA/BCA/AIG bandwagon to abolish the Minimum Wage in Australia to increase ‘flexibility’ and make our products cheaper for purchasers overseas to but, by way of reviving our Manufacturing Industry.
Nope. Nope. Nope. Australia can never win a race to the bottom on wages. There’ll always be another country willing to undercut us.
Instead we have to go the way of Elaborately Transformed Goods.
I mean, have Germany’s BMW and Mercedes workers had to take a pay cut to stay competitive globally?
C’mon Albo – follow Andrews and start sticking the knife in – blame Scrott for every single fucking death COVID or otherwise.
citizen @ #1182 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:40 pm
They’d be better off organising a ‘Freedom Ride for David Dungay’.
Go here, there and everywhere to spread the word. But not COVID-19. Socially distance, wash your hands or use hand sanitiser and wear a mask. 🙂
Coal can provide a steady source of power. Wind and solar are more intermittent. The wind does blow all the time, but in some places at some times it stops. The sun always shines during daylight hours, but sometimes in some places it is obscured by cloud.
This intermittency is an engineering problem. It is something that can be overcome by the inclusion of steady sources in the network, for example batteries or hydro. Even if the backup were coal, we’d be using much less of the stuff and emitting much less CO2. I see a lot of talk about the alleged instability of renewable power in the same category as opposition to building a bridge because it might be damaged by floods. It will over decades be affected by floods, so it needs to be designed to address them. An engineering problem.
We don’t see engineers and scientists banging on about the non-reliability of renewables, just those who have a vested interest in the continued use of coal, together with their political and media boosters. I call bullshit on the alleged instability of renewable power being a significant barrier to its use.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:44 pm
“I mean, have Germany’s BMW and Mercedes workers had to take a pay cut to stay competitive globally?”
I recommend that you look into the differences in work practices, automation and per unit labour costs the if you want to make that argument.
frednk @ #1177 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:36 pm
He can’t help himself. He thinks he’s a member of the Smug Masters of the Universe club. Otherwise known as the Liberals.
Bucephalus @ #1188 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:48 pm
Why? The argument is about the Minimum Wage. Not shifting the goalposts.
lizzie says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:46 pm
“Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
·
9m
I know Jenny Mikakos personally and know she would be finding this period extremely distressing. All Greek Australians are struggling atm. These people are our parents’ generation. Jenny, all of us, would dearly love to protect them in the twilight of their years.”
Well, that’s just bad luck because Andrews has piled in with both boots to give the Greek Orthodox Aged Care system a really fucking good kicking – so suck it up.
PlayerOne
We could but it is more expensive for Australia to send exports aboard than it is for EU members to drive across the border so Australia would need to cut the cost of business or increase its domestic market ideally both.
Bucephalus
Germany
https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/secret-german-auto-subsidies-exposed-107275/
Australia:
https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/hockey-dares-gm-to-leave-20131211-iyoj2
That is the difference.
The minimum wage isn’t the biggest problem facing business.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, July 28, 2020 at 12:51 pm
“The argument is about the Minimum Wage. Not shifting the goalposts.”
You’re the one who moved the goal posts – BMW and Mercedes workers aren’t on minimum wage and neither were Australian Car Manufacturing Workers, some who made astounding amounts – over $100,000 a year on a production line.
While I liked my Holden’s they weren’t anything compared to a BMW which are clearly exceeded by Mercedes. And if you’ve ever seen a Mercedes AMG Mechanic hand building a personally autographed motor you’ll understand why they are in such demand.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1194 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 12:56 pm
No, but ACCI/IPA/BCA/AIG are trying to make it one.