Polls: federal Morgan, YouGov on COVID-19, WA miscellany

Morgan finds the federal Coalition keeping its nose in front; YouGov records a thumbs-up for COVID-19 restrictions; and some striking (if somewhat dated) measures of Mark McGowan’s ascendancy in the west.

Three bits of polling news from around the place, including some rare intelligence from Western Australia, which has still only had one public poll of voting intention in the three-and-a-half years since the 2017 election:

• Roy Morgan made one of its occasional random drops of the federal voting intention polling it conducts weekly, crediting the Coalition with a lead of 51.5-48.5, out from 50.5-49.5 when it last published figures a month ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 43.5%, Labor is down one to 33.5%, the Greens are up half to 11.0% and One Nation is down 1.5% to 2.5%. Also included are state two-party breakdowns with the Coalition leading 52.5-47.5 in New South Wales, 58-42 in Queensland, 53.5-46.5 in Western Australia and 53-47 in South Australia, and Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in Victoria and 58-42 in Tasmania. The poll was conducted online and by phone from a sample of 2589 respondents over the weekends of July 11-12 and July 18-19.

• Today’s News Corp tabloids ($) have results of a national YouGov survey of 2307 respondents concerning COVID-19, of which the most interesting finding is that only 6% consider current restrictions too tough, compared with 33% for too lenient and 60% for about right. Despite variable national experience of COVID-19 at the present time, results were fairly consistent across the states, with Victoria only slightly outperforming the national “too tough” response at 11%. The poll was conducted from July 15-20.

• The West Australian reported that polling conducted for “a prominent business group” by Utting Research, which has conducted much of Labor’s internal polling over the years, producing the remarkable finding that Mark McGowan’s state Labor government held a 66-34 lead. The poll was conducted back in May, but there is little reason to think the McGowan balloon would have burst since then. The poll recorded approval ratings of 86% for Mark McGowan, 64% for Scott Morrison but only 25% for state Liberal leader Liza Harvey, though the latter would have a much higher uncommitted rating.

• Staying on the subject of WA polling that’s perhaps not as fresh as it might be, Painted Dog Research published leadership ratings early last month that escaped this site’s notice at the time. These showed Mark McGowan with a satisfaction rating of 87% (including 63% very satisfied) with only 4% dissatisfied (2% very dissatisfied); Scott Morrison on 67% satisfied (33% very) and 19% dissatisfied (7% very); Anthony Albanese on 27% satisfied (7% very) and 29% unsatisfied (12% very); and Liza Harvey on 19% satisfied (4% very) and 37% dissatisfied (17% very) (UPDATE: For what it’s worth, this is metropolitan only). The poll was conducted June 5-7 from a sample of 800. The West Australian reported at the time that it understood Labor internal polling showed similar results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,359 comments on “Polls: federal Morgan, YouGov on COVID-19, WA miscellany”

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  1. Well, hopefully Clive Palmer gets sat back on his big fat arse when his vexatious border opening case gets thrown out of court and that makes Queenslanders realise what a lying grub he is with no one’s interests but his own front-of-mind.

    The WA border case is still in play (for now), but the QLD borders case has been dropped:

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/jul/23/clive-palmer-backed-court-challenge-to-queensland-covid-19-border-closure-dropped

  2. ajm @ #994 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 6:06 am

    sprocket_ @ #992 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 8:00 am

    It looks like the Palmer Redux , this from The Smear…

    He’s back: Palmer to blitz Queensland poll
    Clive Palmer is preparing to unleash an advertising blitz in October’s Queensland election campaign, delivering massive benefits to the LNP.

    The Queensland parliament has passed spending limits on campaigns by parties, candidates and other otganisations so he won’t be able to do what he did in the Federal election.

    Well that’s a relief.

  3. SK,
    Hairdressers and barbers have been open in NSW for months with not one case of COVID-19 emanating from there, afaik.

  4. US covid Republican senate proposal… Unemployment benefits at 70% of previous wage. Is that capped? Has to be capped but… it’s the GOP. That would be perverse.

  5. It’s the Fair Work Commission that has been too slow to compensate health care workers for Covid leave. The FWC that’s stuffed with fans of Morrison.

  6. This, from the NYT, is for all the data privacy nerds out there:

    Tip of the Week
    The nerd gadget I wish everyone owned
    Brian X. Chen, a personal technology writer for The Times, wants us all to consider an alternative to cloud computing services like iCloud and Dropbox.

    Let me tell you why it’s worth considering the odd sounding N.A.S.

    It stands for network-attached storage — awful jargon for what is essentially a mini computer data center in your home. Setting one up isn’t easy, but it gives us a more private, potentially less expensive way to save and access our digital files, photos and videos from anywhere.

    A N.A.S. is a device containing one or more hard drives that you plug into your home internet service. It creates something like a personal cloud service — similar to Google Drive or Dropbox, but you don’t have to pay a subscription fee to those companies. And because all the data is stored on your own equipment, no company can see the information you’ve saved there.

    I have a Synology N.A.S. with a pair of one-terabyte hard drives that I use instead of Apple’s iCloud to back up the data on my Mac. When my smartphone and tablets begin running out of storage space, I move large video files and photos to the N.A.S. and delete the files from my devices.

    If I’ve lost you by now, I get it. N.A.S. servers are designed for people with above-average levels of tech proficiency. And they’re not cheap to set up. A decent N.A.S. server, including hard drives, will cost upward of $500.

    But it’s worth considering if you have the interest and time to study up. Read Techradar’s guide on picking a N.A.S. Then check out tutorials from Synology on using a N.A.S. to back up your Windows or Mac computer. You can also research other things you might want to do with a personal cloud, like streaming movies or creating a virtual private network to protect your information when using a hotel’s insecure Wi-Fi connection, for example.

    Setting up a N.A.S. can be difficult and frustrating, but the potential payoff is huge.

  7. A Melbourne private school has been criticised for introducing coronavirus face mask guidelines that suggest students can only wear plain masks in colours which match the college uniform. How bloody stupid!

    Probably quite sensible. Would take about 5 minutes before teenagers got into various competitions for ‘pushing the boundaries’ when it came to what was on the mask and designs. Not that we would have in our yoof 😆 .

  8. Lawrence Douglas is the James J Grosfeld professor of law, jurisprudence and social thought, at Amherst College, Massachusetts. He is the author of Will He Go? Trump and the Looming Election Meltdown in 2020. He is also a contributing opinion writer for the Guardian US

    This guy scopes out every twist and turn in the November Presidential election, and it is dark and includes every idea Trump is seeding in the electorate’s mind right now in order to hang on to power:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/27/trump-loses-election-what-happens-possibilities

  9. Last night (♫all alone ♪ in a bar room ♫) I watched quite a lot of the Einstein and Hawking program.

    Theory tell us that parts of a pair of virtual particles are the basis of black hole evaporation*.

    This, quite naturally leads us to the question ♫what has rocked the ♪ continent

    Will leakage from the virtual cabinet cause the cabinet, over time, to evaporate ❓

    and

    should this occur will there be somewhere in the Universe some ghostly figures composed of anti matter trapped in some “phantom zone” like area ❓

    The astute Poll Bludger well versed in physics theory will have immediately grasped the compelling case for Cabinet secrecy because quite obviously the members thereof are in mortal fear.

    *Stephen Hawking Was Right: Black Holes Can Evaporate …www.livescience.com › 65683-sonic-black-hole-spews-…
    Jun 10, 2019 – Pairs of particles Normally, after a pair of virtual particles appears, they immediately annihilate each other. Next to a black hole, however, the extreme forces of gravity instead pull the particles apart, with one particle absorbed by the black hole as the other shoots off into space.

  10. An interesting point:

    It seems contradictory to have several thousand people gathered in football stadiums and up to 300 in hotels while at the same time banning a rally of 500 where masks will be worn and social distancing observed.

  11. KayJay, when I was a kid, someone told me the sun would run out of fuel and die. I was terrified as I knew it would be like night, but forever. The fact that this was to happen in 5b years didn’t seem to lesson my terror. I only stopped worry about it when I was told about black holes. I believed the whole universe would be sucked into them, me with it. Now you have shown me, that they do evaporate and we are safe.

    I now have nothing to worry about. Thank you.

  12. The weather in Sydney might put a bit of a dampener on the protest.
    The usual right wing megaphones will be ready to pounce in any case.

  13. PeeBee @ #1017 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 6:56 am

    KayJay, when I was a kid, someone told me the sun would run out of fuel and die. I was terrified as I knew it would be like night, but forever. The fact that this was to happen in 5b years didn’t seem to lesson my terror. I only stopped worry about it when I was told about black holes. I believed the whole universe would be sucked into them, me with it. Now you have shown me, that they do evaporate and we are safe.

    I now have nothing to worry about. Thank you.

    But you will become the anti-you and vote conservative. 🙂

  14. C@tmomma @ #1004 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 8:12 am

    Thanks, Jaeger. Looks like the wheels coming off Clive’s bus.

    Wouldn’t you know it some contender for one of BK’s awards has dumped three of the tires across the road from my hacienda. Must have been disturbed because the fourth tire is a couple of hundred metres away.

    There was what looked like a kicked in door on the side of the road just up the road a little. Seems to have been an attractive item because it has disappeared.

    Still raining in Newcastle. 12℃ Projected 16℃

    Cat I use both One Drive and Basic Dropbox.

  15. There are meaningful distinctions:

    (a) patrons are subject to contractual obligations which the protestors are not;
    (b) the number of protestors are unlimited;
    (c) the likelihood of discordance is heightened; and
    (d) police may have to interact physically which creates mutual risk.

    I would like to see the protestors assemble in their spaced groups of 10 and 20 if they can and a bright orb has just appeared over the harbour but boots will be necessary.

  16. How many of the MSM are protesting about the push towards a Morrison dictatorship? He did it with the Borders, when everything became an on water matter. Only the Independent Senators seem to be objecting.

  17. A long time ago, John Howard used to be described as Margaret Thatcher drag. No doubt Frydenburg is just taking a lead from the master. Perhaps we could have his version of Workchoices for the next election.

  18. ”But you will become the anti-you and vote conservative. “

    But the anti-conservatives will become left wing and Labor will be in Government most of the time.

  19. KayJay,
    I put that article up because I thought you might be interested in the nuts and bolts of creating your own private cloud. I can provide links if you like. 🙂

  20. Barney, ‘But you will become the anti-you and vote conservative. ‘

    Funny you should say that. When I was younger, people used to come up to me and talk to me like they knew me. This happened many times and I realised there was a doppelgänger running around, probably confused by the same conversations I was having. I gradually built a dossier on this person and hoped to meet up, but it didn’t happen.

    But your statement above explains it, he is my anti-me conservative voter.

  21. PeeBee @ #1026 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 7:07 am

    Barney, ‘But you will become the anti-you and vote conservative. ‘

    Funny you should say that. When I was younger, people used to come up to me and talk to me like they knew me. This happened many times and I realised there was a doppelgänger running around, probably confused by the same conversations I was having. I gradually built a dossier on this person and hoped to meet up, but it didn’t happen.

    But your statement above explains it, he is my anti-me conservative voter.

    You better not find them as you will both be instantly annihilated. 🙂

  22. At the time when CERN were talking about and disseminating information about the God Particle my wife was having regular conversations with a lady who would read to her from the Bible and other “born again” material.

    The lady concerned was apparently quite frightened that a black hole would be created and disappear us.

    \\In 2012, scientists confirmed the detection of the long-sought Higgs boson, also known by its nickname the “God particle,” at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the most powerful particle accelerator on the planet. This particle helps give mass to all elementary particles that have mass, such as electrons and protons.Jan 7, 2015

    Did Gravity Save the Universe from ‘God Particle’ Higgs Boson …

    Touch wood (hand to head) so far it looks like we’ve got away with it.

    The unseen (by me) consequences of the dissolution of matter by virtual particles seems to lead to the conclusion that voting LNP is the way to go although the time frames concerned – billions if not trillions of years – may put that on hold. Maybe we could wait to see what the latest poll says.

  23. C@t and JayKay, I was watching a YouTube the other day explaining why your modem has a USB port (can you tell I am in lockdown?) and one of the things it can be used for is to connect to a USB stick or hard disk. This then can act like a cloud storage for everything/one on the network.

    Not sure of the mechanics, but I am sure YouTube will help there, but is also an alternative to iCloud Dropbox etc.

  24. I have been hearing on NewsRadio the rationalisations by NSW authorities to maintaining the ban on BLM demonstrations.
    This could be solved by addressing better the root cause of the problem: the long history of deep-seated institutional racism in Australia by government, police and the courts.
    Is it too much of a dream to imagine Gladys (and many others) saying: “We recognise the problem. We need to sit down and talk with the First Peoples about the future”?
    This would (I hope) remove the main reason for the protest.

  25. C@tmomma @ #1017 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 9:06 am

    KayJay,
    I put that article up because I thought you might be interested in the nuts and bolts of creating your own private cloud. I can provide links if you like. 🙂

    Thanks for the offer. I’m quite happy with what I have. The basic “Dropbox” only allows for three devices so that I am discontinuing using that and will stay with One Drive (Microsoft). I use this only for copying photos from A to B etc.

    So, one again, thank you but I will remain with my present set up.

    There’s another great article in the New York Times about a lying conniving doctor. I’ll put something up after I sort out my next weeks tablets. 💊

    Over for now.

  26. phylactella

    “Let’s talk”, by Gladys has been suggested by several people (not only Indigenous). But apparently that’s outside her list of possibilities. Forbidding marches is much more macho.

  27. Barney, ‘You better not find them as you will both be instantly annihilated. ‘

    Gees, I hadn’t thought of that. Just as well we didn’t meet up – puff of smoke stuff.

    Thanks Barney, now I have something to worry about! I’ll have to look carefully at every stranger and also not have a heart attack if I walk past a reflective surface.

  28. PeeBee (Block)
    Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 9:15 am
    Comment #1021

    I do the USB stick thing occasionally when transferring data and I now have a couple of 32GB USB sticks with standard USB connector on one end and Samsung or similar connector on the other.

    Thanks for your post. Over for medication.

  29. phylactella

    Glady now has the reason for the explosion in cases, should they occur.

    Did you notice the spokesman encouraging people to turn up was white, pointy nosed and blue eyed. Not much chance of him being beaten up for being black.

  30. PeeBee @ #1034 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 7:19 am

    Barney, ‘You better not find them as you will both be instantly annihilated. ‘

    Gees, I hadn’t thought of that. Just as well we didn’t meet up – puff of smoke stuff.

    Thanks Barney, now I have something to worry about! I’ll have to look carefully at every stranger and also not have a heart attack if I walk past a reflective surface.

    Just remember if it’s the anti-you, that might mean it’s a woman. 🙂

  31. ‘That Scott Morrison is a clever, canny politician is beyond dispute. The Prime Minister’s singular achievement 14 months after winning the 2019 election has been to convey the impression that the third-term government he leads is a stripling first-term administration. A government on training wheels is more likely to be forgiven for its missteps.’ SMH

    An impression Albo appears to have swallowed hook line and sinker.

  32. I have mentioned this issue before – the turmoil in world energy markets – and if anything it is getting worse. This is from an article in the Economist.
    “In January 2015, 11 months before the signing of the UN Paris Agreement, a modelling study proposed that one-third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and more than four-fifths of coal reserves would have to stay underground in order to keep global warming below 2°C, relative to pre-industrial temperatures.

    Now low prices, largely a by-product of the covid-19 pandemic, are pressing big oil (and gas) companies into decisions aligned with the campaigners’ cries. As we show in this week’s newsletter (see link below), with a barrel of Brent crude fetching just over $40, roughly half of the world’s oil is too costly to produce profitably. Companies are cutting investment and seeking to sell billions of dollars’ worth of resources—with limited success. ”
    https://www.economist.com/business/2020/07/18/oil-giants-want-to-own-only-the-cheapest-cleanest-hydrocarbons?utm_campaign=the-climate-issue&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-07-27&utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-1

    Apart from creating a lot of political instability among oil producers, this background casts Scomo’s post-Covid recovery committee and plan for a gas bonanza in a suspicious light.

    Quite simply, gas is hardly worth producing on international markets. It is a liability, not an asset. The conflict of interest of an individual like Nev Power chairing the committee are obvious. Giving billions to Australia’s gas industry now, in return for a tiny number of jobs, is scaming Australia’s Treasury on a vast scale. The same dollars could employ ten times as many workers in other industries. Labor must oppose the gas scam plan.

  33. Abattoir workers in Melbourne have downed tools over coronavirus fears this morning.

    Workers at the JBS meat factory in Brooklyn, which has recorded 71 positive cases of Covid-19, ceased work on Tuesday morning until the company can assure them they will be safe, the United Workers Union said.

  34. At what stage will Albanese decide to stop cooperating with this dictatorial PM? Morrrison shut him out of decision making months ago.

  35. Today The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald reveal that public servants from two government agencies were withdrawn from the hotel quarantine program amid fears for their safety.

    Unfortunately, officials said they were “building the plane as it flies” and the quarantine scheme was marred by danger and confusion.

    Officials have said that the public servants from Parks Victoria and the Department of Environment Land Water and Planning were pulled out of the hotel quarantine program weeks into their secondment amid fears for their safety and inadequate direction from DHHS.

    One official who was seconded to DHHS said there was no training about the use of personal protective equipment or masks before they started. He also said there was confusion about the policy to allow guests in quarantine outside for fresh air and exercise, confirming security guards did end up escorting guests outside.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victoria-braces-for-more-deaths-as-nsw-clusters-grow-australian-death-toll-stands-at-161-20200727-p55fyz.html

  36. BK @ #975 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 7:13 am

    Australia ranks last for manufacturing self-sufficiency among its global peers, producing goods worth only about 70 per cent of the amount it consumes. A report by think tank the Australia Institute found a third of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries used more than they made. Australia was the least self-sufficient, while Ireland and Germany topped the list. Neoliberalism and trickle-down, of course, have nothing to do with this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-bottom-of-league-table-on-manufacturing-self-sufficiency-20200727-p55fsm.html

    I hope Bucephelus reads this article. It points out how Australians have been suckered by the myth of “globalization” to such an extent that we are now the least self-sufficient country in the OECD. We are not the “clever country” that we try and tell ourselves we are. Quite the opposite. Our economy has been hollowed out to such an extent that we are an outlier compared to countries we would routinely regard as “peers”. We are perhaps the least resilient and most vulnerable economy in the OECD.

  37. Player One @ #1046 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 7:58 am

    BK @ #975 Tuesday, July 28th, 2020 – 7:13 am

    Australia ranks last for manufacturing self-sufficiency among its global peers, producing goods worth only about 70 per cent of the amount it consumes. A report by think tank the Australia Institute found a third of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development member countries used more than they made. Australia was the least self-sufficient, while Ireland and Germany topped the list. Neoliberalism and trickle-down, of course, have nothing to do with this.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-bottom-of-league-table-on-manufacturing-self-sufficiency-20200727-p55fsm.html

    I hope Bucephelus reads this article. It points out how Australians have been suckered by the myth of “globalization” to such an extent that we are now the least self-sufficient country in the OECD. We are not the “clever country” that we try and tell ourselves we are. Quite the opposite. Our economy has been hollowed out to such an extent that we are an outlier compared to countries we would routinely regard as “peers”. We are perhaps the least resilient and most vulnerable economy in the OECD.

    One problem for manufacturing in Australia is our domestic market is often too small to support it, so it’s reliant on our ability to export and compete on the global one.

  38. News Breakfast
    @BreakfastNews
    ·
    21m
    Dr @normanswan says actual coronavirus cases could be double or more than the recorded number in Australia, with a lot of people likely walking around who don’t know they have it.

    “It could be anywhere between two or four times as many people have the infection.”

  39. KayJay
    Looking for something with a higher shutter speed than your current Kodak Brownie camera ? Have just the ticket.
    .

    Edoardo Charbon at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne and his colleagues used a camera with a shutter speed of about a trillionth of a second to take pictures and video of a laser beam following a 3D path.

    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2249904-watch-a-beam-of-light-bounce-off-mirrors-in-ultra-slow-motion/#ixzz6TRYE2Sxy

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