Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more

A second tranche of Newspoll results finds Daniel Andrews taking a coronavirus-related popularity hit but still doing well in absolute terms, with Gladys Berejiklian also down from earlier peaks.

It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.

Also:

• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.

• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.

• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.

• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,045 comments on “Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more”

Comments Page 39 of 41
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  1. Victoria says:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 4:41 pm
    One more post before I go.

    Again a shout out to Albo.

    Where are you?
    ____________________
    I’m worried your going down the zoomster personal obsession with Albo road.

  2. LVT
    As Victoria points out

    Have you heard aged care is a commonwealth responsiblity.

    And as Peter van Onselen also states (with evidence)
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/the-buck-on-quarantine-stops-with-the-commonwealth/news-story/eb81cf5c8dd6d3582ba710ee0552409f

    But SfM has managed to make aged care and quarantining state responsibilities. Read the comments at the end of the PvO article in The Oz to see how effective the deflection has been.

    So, even though Aged Care Facilities should be a federal responsibility, Gladys will own it if/when things go bad. Just as Dan is forced to own the problem in Victoria.

    And, to answer your original comment at 4:04pm, no, I would NOT “like to see this happen…”

  3. PvO having a Dennis Denuto moment with the constitution.

    The Commonwealth does have powers as to quarantine but it’s not exclusive.

  4. Aged care is funded by the Federal Government and funding is conditional on regulations. Health care and police is a State responsibility, ie the health of those in Aged care facilities is a State responsibility.

  5. So it’s pretty clear from his constant negativity towards Dan Andrews, that Nath prefers the alternative…O’Brien! What makes you think that he would do a better job Nath?

  6. LVT
    “Aged care is funded by the Federal Government and funding is conditional on regulations.”
    ————–
    Yes, regulating it’s functioning is a federal responsibility.
    Which is where the failures occurred.
    Ownership of responsibility is missing – it belongs to Minister for Aged Care – Colbeck

  7. Maude Lynne says:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 4:58 pm
    LVT
    “Aged care is funded by the Federal Government and funding is conditional on regulations.”
    ————–
    Yes, regulating it’s functioning is a federal responsibility.
    Which is where the failures occurred.
    Ownership of responsibility is missing – it belongs to Minister for Aged Care – Colbeck
    ______________________
    Your confusing me now. Earlier you were saying Gladys better hope nothing happens in Aged care now your saying its Colbeck? Which is it?

  8. clem attlee @ #1903 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    So it’s pretty clear from his constant negativity towards Dan Andrews, that Nath prefers the alternative…O’Brien! What makes you think that he would do a better job Nath?

    Nath probably lacked a father figure in his ealy life and is constantly rebelling against the machine.

  9. clem attleesays:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 4:57 pm
    So it’s pretty clear from his constant negativity towards Dan Andrews, that Nath prefers the alternative…O’Brien! What makes you think that he would do a better job Nath?
    _________________
    I’ve been pretty favorable towards the Andrews Government since it came in. However this disaster is the worst mistake of a Victorian Premier in my lifetime. It is now costing billions upon billions when some diligence around quarantine could have prevented it. I don’t know how to feel. Sometimes I want Andrews to resign, sometimes I want the whole government gone on the back of it. But yes, then you get the Vic Liberals in, a worse bunch. I’d have just liked Andrews to be not so stupid in the first place.

    What I won’t do is sit here and pretend Andrews hasn’t made a calamitous mistake. I suppose I’d settle for a public apology and a birching followed by his resignation. I think he was leaving soon anyway.

  10. This is a bit scary from John Quiggin on Twitter:

    Amid all the strange, alarming and exciting things that have happened lately, the fact that real long-term (30-year) interest rates have fallen to zero has been largely overlooked. Yet this is the end of capitalism, at least as it has traditionally been understood.

    Interest is the pure form of return to capital, excluding any return to monopoly power, corporate control, managerial skills or compensation for risk. If there is no real return to capital, then then there is no capitalism. Not just a result of the pandemic. A trend that goes back to the GFC.

    Of course, there is no sign that the replacement for capitalism (let’s call it plutocracy for now) will be an improvement.

    (A bit more wonkish). Forward looking price earnings ratio for stocks and Tobin’s q (ratio of market value to asset value) at all time highs. P/E ratio implies low future returns
    Tobin’s q implies most profits come from non-replicable (intangible) assets, that is, monopoly in one form or another.

  11. nath @ #1910 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 5:18 pm

    clem attleesays:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 4:57 pm
    So it’s pretty clear from his constant negativity towards Dan Andrews, that Nath prefers the alternative…O’Brien! What makes you think that he would do a better job Nath?
    _________________
    I’ve been pretty favorable towards the Andrews Government since it came in. However this disaster is the worst mistake of a Victorian Premier in my lifetime. It is now costing billions upon billions when some diligence around quarantine could have prevented it. I don’t know how to feel. Sometimes I want Andrews to resign, sometimes I want the whole government gone on the back of it. But yes, then you get the Vic Liberals in, a worse bunch. I’d have just liked Andrews to be not so stupid in the first place.

    What I won’t do is sit here and pretend Andrews hasn’t made a calamitous mistake. I suppose I’d settle for a public apology and a birching followed by his resignation. I think he was leaving soon anyway.

    I suspect that many potentially calamitous decisions have been made in all states and the commonwealth. Andrews is just unlucky that his is the one that played out badly.

  12. Greensborough Growlersays:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 5:17 pm
    clem attlee @ #1903 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    So it’s pretty clear from his constant negativity towards Dan Andrews, that Nath prefers the alternative…O’Brien! What makes you think that he would do a better job Nath?

    Nath probably lacked a father figure in his ealy life and is constantly rebelling against the machine.
    ________________
    I don’t speculate on the family members of other bludgers. I was raised better than that.

  13. LVT

    Your confusing me now. Earlier you were saying Gladys better hope nothing happens in Aged care now your saying its Colbeck? Which is it?

    “Ownership of responsibility is missing – it belongs to Minister for Aged Care – Colbeck”
    Just because it’s Colbeck’s responsibility doesn’t mean he will own it.
    SfM and the MSM will ensure it’s Gladys who gets blamed.

    I feel I’m repeating myself, but happy to clarify things for you.

  14. PVO predicted Gillard would be returned with an increased majority.
    I would not be listening to anything he has to say.

  15. C@tmomma @ #1822 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 1:18 pm

    PeeBee,
    Snip, Richard Colbeck who is federal Aged Care Minister during this national emergency in Aged Care homes

    He’s also the minister for the younger peoples. Don’t know the correct title plus he’s only there as a replacement, he actually lost his seat at the last election after some farnarkling by Otto Abetz and was placed in the unwinnable 4th position on the Lib ticket

  16. Maude Lynne says:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 5:30 pm
    LVT

    Your confusing me now. Earlier you were saying Gladys better hope nothing happens in Aged care now your saying its Colbeck? Which is it?
    “Ownership of responsibility is missing – it belongs to Minister for Aged Care – Colbeck”
    Just because it’s Colbeck’s responsibility doesn’t mean he will own it.
    SfM and the MSM will ensure it’s Gladys who gets blamed.

    I feel I’m repeating myself, but happy to clarify things for you
    ____________________________________-
    Please do maude – at 2.32pm you said Gladys appeared to be running a Swedish style experiment re aged care.

    I think your a little one eyed perhaps?

  17. It’s all very simple – here’s how it works. Formal lines of responsibility don’t come into it:

    There’s a Virus-related development.
    Is it good? PM takes credit. End.
    Otherwise is it in a Labor state?
    If yes, blame premier / State Govt, crank up Noise Machine. End.
    Else is there a suitable scapegoat (Greenies, Unions, BLM or other class enemies)?
    If yes, assign blame, crank up Noise Machine. End.
    Else (crickets) End.

  18. shellbell: “PvO having a Dennis Denuto moment with the constitution.
    The Commonwealth does have powers as to quarantine but it’s not exclusive.”

    Surely the more pertinent point is that the states agreed to take care of the hotel quarantine arrangements, with the ADF there to assist if required.

  19. It’s funny. Every time I come on PB, I find it dominated by an increasingly hysterical defence of the Andrews Government, and an unconvincing attempt to blame all their problems on ScoMo and/or the Victorian Opposition (because, of course, oppositions are so powerful, aren’t they?).

    Meanwhile, the Palaszczuk and McGowan governments have done a really terrific job in eliminating community transmission in their states and keeping it that way. Palaszczuk has done such a terrific job that she’s now in the position to pull a kind of inversion of Jeff Kennett’s poaching of the Australian Grand Prix from South Australia by luring most of the AFL and quite a few other sporting events into Queensland.

    But I don’t see much love for Pala or McGowan on here. Far more for Andrews.

    Just sayin’

  20. LVT

    Please do maude – at 2.32pm you said Gladys appeared to be running a Swedish style experiment re aged care.

    I think your a little one eyed perhaps?

    Did you watch the Four Corners episode about how the NSW State Health Dep’t handled the Newmarch covid19 outbreak. It was appallingly inhumane, locking people up in a facility where they could not escape catching the disease. Look up Sweden’s response to covid19 in aged care homes, and be appalled like I was. Here is a link, but there are many other reports. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836
    Compare it with how Gladys ran Newmarch – here is the 4 Corners episode.
    https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/like-the-plague/12383726

    One-eyed? No

  21. meher baba @ #1921 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 4:23 pm

    It’s funny. Every time I come on PB, I find it dominated by an increasingly hysterical defence of Andrews.

    Meanwhile, let me point out that the Palaszczuk and McGowan governments have done a really terrific job in eliminating community transmission in their states and keeping it that way. Palaszczuk has done such a terrific job that she’s now in the position to pull a kind of inversion of Jeff Kennett’s poaching of the Australian Grand Prix from South Australia by luring most of the AFL and quite a few other sporting events into Queensland.

    Just sayin’

    The defence of Andrews is just a natural reaction to the vileness of the Murdochracy in going at him for not opening up soon enough and then opening too soon. Most people can see the hypocrisy in that, and defence is a natural reaction. While at the same time the idiots in the Commonwealth and NSW govt that didn’t just fail to stop the ruby princess but actually helped to get it into the country (and is almost certainly a root cause of much of Victoria’s problems don’t seem to get criticized at all.

    And how much taxpayer money went into the very important app, that just doesn’t work? A working app would have come in handy in Victoria right now.

    Frankly i don’t care if Victoria and NSW are under lockdown through to 2023.

    The Qld situation is either brilliant or very lucky.

  22. More SA politics – a Liberal MP signed blank forms for his chauffeur to drive who knows who else around at public expense. He was overseas at the time!
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-25/sa-liberal-mp-admits-to-signing-blank-time-sheets-for-chauffeur/12492068

    I guess its only fraud if Labor MPs or union officials do it. No need to charge the man with the alleged crime.

    Sarcasm off, there are only 24 MPs in the Liberal’s lower house governing mob with a slim majority. If every one who has allegedly committed expense fraud was removed, they would be out of government. Do we have the rule of law or not?

  23. Meher Baba

    Meanwhile, the Palaszczuk and McGowan governments have done a really terrific job in eliminating community transmission in their states and keeping it that way.

    But I don’t see much love for Pala or McGowan on here. Far more for Andrews.

    Well, I agree – they’ve done a terrific job, as have SA, Tas, NT, ACT.
    To be fair, Andrews and Gladys did get the short straws. Biggest states, higher density, more overseas arrivals, no help from SfM.
    Dan is working hard to get on top of the outbreak. I’m a bit worried about Gladys…….

  24. Further to the above, this all happened back in 2016, which was well after the Peter Slipper affair that got Slipper kicked out of office. Ridgeway can hardly pretend ignorance in that context.

  25. Meanwhile, the Palaszczuk and McGowan governments have done a really terrific job in eliminating community transmission in their states and keeping it that way.

    But I don’t see much love for Pala or McGowan on here. Far more for Andrews.

    I suspect there are far more Victorians who post here than people who live in WA or Qld.

  26. Aged Care is a Commonwealth responsibility, and is fully funded, regulated and quality controlled by the Commonwealth.

    In terms of delivery, the Aged Care sector is a combination of privately run – both global companies like Bupa, and cottage religious outfits like St Basils Greek Orthodox in Melbourne – with a sprinkling of dodgy outfits out for a quick buck. My understanding is that 100% of infections and deaths is in the private sector Aged Care facilities.

    All these are regulated by the Commonwealth. All these are funded by the Commonwealth. All these are quality controlled by the Commonwealth. The combination of this is so bad that a Royal Commission is currently uncovering gross mismanagement.

    The Terms of Reference will need to be expanded to determine why the Commonwealth system has failed so badly in this pandemic. And what can be done to address the work practices allowed to fester.

  27. Recommended viewing – Fear City: New York vs The Mafia on Netflix.

    Not only is it a fascinating look at life in NY at the time, it also serves as a reminder that there was a time when Rudy Giuliani was actually a hero, rather than the sad pathetic Trump enabler he is now.

  28. I watched the AFL match between the Sydney Swans and Richmond today. Most entertaining right up until the last minute!

    I’m funny like that. I only like watching AFL matches, except for the finals and grand final, if the weather is really wintery, as it was this afternoon in Sydney, cold and wet. I think it tests the skills of the players better and makes for closer games.

  29. Danama Papers @ #1932 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 4:52 pm

    Recommended viewing – Fear City: New York vs The Mafia on Netflix.

    Not only is it a fascinating look at life in NY at the time, it also serves as a reminder that there was a time when Rudy Giuliani was actually a hero, rather than the sad pathetic Trump enabler he is now.

    Thanks, will check it out.

  30. meher baba:

    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 6:23 pm

    That they have and in the case of Palaszczuk, even if some the estimated 200 who sneaked over the border prove to be contagious, that’s hardly her fault. Anecdotally, she’s well set the win the October election.

  31. Bob sprockets, there’s a few people on here who need some of your whadabout therapy. What do you have tonight for relief?

  32. Sprocket
    The majority of homes are run by not for profit, mostly religious based.
    Last figures I have are 2016 57 % are not for profit.
    Having worked for both private and not for profit and done consultancies for both there is not much different in the model for ripping off the clients and the staff. Not for profit, especially religious are slightly better as they have greater volunteer numbers to do the non essential work like spending time with residents.

  33. The failures have been in quarantine. The consequence of that failure has been seen in deaths in aged care facilities.

  34. This is the current RC into Aged Care terms of reference

    The terms of reference for the Royal Commission are included in the Letters Patent, which the Administrator of the Government of the Commonwealth of Australia signed on 6 December 2018, and which the Governor-General amended by Letters Patent on 13 September 2019. The Letters Patent were further amended by the Governor-General on 25 June 2020.

    Letters Patent 6 December 2018
    Letters Patent 13 September 2019
    Letters Patent 25 June 2020

    The Commissioners were appointed to be a Commission of inquiry, and required and authorised to inquire into the following matters:

    the quality of aged care services provided to Australians, the extent to which those services meet the needs of the people accessing them, the extent of substandard care being provided, including mistreatment and all forms of abuse, the causes of any systemic failures, and any actions that should be taken in response;

    how best to deliver aged care services to:

    people with disabilities residing in aged care facilities, including younger people; and

    the increasing number of Australians living with dementia, having regard to the importance of dementia care for the future of aged care services;

    the future challenges and opportunities for delivering accessible, affordable and high quality aged care services in Australia, including:

    in the context of changing demographics and preferences, in particular people’s desire to remain living at home as they age; and

    in remote, rural and regional Australia;

    what the Australian Government, aged care industry, Australian families and the wider community can do to strengthen the system of aged care services to ensure that the services provided are of high quality and safe;

    how to ensure that aged care services are person‑centred, including through allowing people to exercise greater choice, control and independence in relation to their care, and improving engagement with families and carers on care‑related matters;

    how best to deliver aged care services in a sustainable way, including through innovative models of care, increased use of technology, and investment in the aged care workforce and capital infrastructure;
    any matter reasonably incidental to a matter referred to in paragraphs (a) to (f) or that [the Commissioners] believe is reasonably relevant to the inquiry.

    https://agedcare.royalcommission.gov.au/

  35. lizzie:

    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 6:49 pm

    [‘I am what I am.’]

    I know that. But that wasn’t my point, which is that others can discuss ornithology but others are dissuaded, like yabba.

  36. Lars Von Trier @ #1890 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 4:25 pm

    Maude Lynne says:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 4:14 pm
    ____________________
    Maude nice deflection to mum, but seriously trying to attack the NSW libs given what is going on in Victoria is shockingly partisan.

    This is exactly what YOU do every day. Riding to the defense of Coalition governments and finding ways to construe blame on Labor governments.

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