It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.
Also:
• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.
• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.
• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.
• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.
Victoria: “I didn’t know Richard Colebeck minister for aged care is from Tasmania.
I’m looking at his press releases and social media.
Very lack lustre indeed.”
He’s nothing special, but he is something of a small “l” Liberal who got on the wrong side of the Abetz-McQuestin cabal that has controlled the Tasmanian Libs for decades, but whose failure to completely bury his political career is evidence of their declining power and influence.
On that basis, I have a bit of a soft spot for him.
Scott @ #1797 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 12:20 pm
He’s left the building?
Meher baba
I dont have a soft spot for any politician. I want to know precisely how they are managing this looming shit show in aged care.
They should be out and about in the media at the very least, informing families who are impacted by this. They deserve to know full and proper details.
I am not a big fan of the military patrolling our streets and I have never lived anywhere that would trigger that reaction. Seeing what is happening in America at the moment just reinforces my concern.
I know we need their help to battle this event but do they have to wear camoflage and look like they’re going to a war. Don’t they have any other uniform.
357 new cases in Victoria and five more deaths: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/25/coronavirus-live-news-close-watch-on-victoria-australia-and-record-infections-globally
Eight aged care facilities are affected, now they are training staff on infection control!
Now they are also making sure staff don’t move between facilities.
Why do I get the impression they are shutting the gates after the horse has bolted?
Makakos and Donnellen should have war gamed this before the outbreak and worked proactively to ensure we didn’t go the way of Newmarch. The should have woken up to the fact that aged care facilities are a weak point. What do these people actually do for their salary. Being pro-active and thinking ahead is obviously not required.
So, PeeBee, you don’t think the Aged Care facilities and the Private Training Colleges that train the workers who work in them should have any responsibility for training the staff in Infectious Disease Control!?!
You sound like a Liberal with all your talk of blaming Labor!
Pee Bee
I would suggest that the people who make the decisions in aged care didn’t ask the people who could have answered the question.
In large organisations the budget is set at head office but the people who manage the day to day on site have the knowledge about use of agencies, which workers,work,across multiple sites etc.
Scott & Mundo
Dead? Nah, unlikely. We would have heard.
But sick with the virus?
Mmm…possible.
Maybe SfM has one or more MHRs on his side down the Covid19, which is why he is shutting down parliament.
A delicious thought….one which would require Labor to act like Abbott’s liberals, would be Labor turning up in force to the next sitting (with masks, of course 🙂 )and pushing through a motion of no confidence because SfM did not have a full complement of troops on his side.
I know, wont happen; but I like to dream 🙂
C@tmomma says:
…
You sound like a Liberal with all your talk of blaming Labor!
From his comments i took him/her as Green supporter. I know same same.
It doesn’t matter how many people die or are abused in Aged Care Homes, the last thing the Liberals will do is interfere with the business “model” of the profiteers in the sector.
https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/support-for-aged-care-residents-and-aged-care-workers-across-victoria
PeeBee
Aged care facilities are a federal responsibility
Credit where it is due….
Blame Colbeck, the fed minister.
Andrews was reminding us that the Commonwealth is responsible for regulation of private aged care homes. “The Australian Government is the primary funder and regulator of the system”.
I just saw a report on ABC online. Richard Colbeck said that in past few weeks they have organised 400 staff surge capacity. Whatever that actually means.
If so, why is the situation dire and suggestions that the ADF are going to be called in.
C@t, no doubt the LNP would have stuffed it up more. All the problems we are experiencing goes back to the chief LNP Border Security guy, not securing the borders.
But in this subset of stuff ups. I am disappointed in those two minister’s handling of their portfolios. I guess that can be extrapolated to blaming Labor, but, I don’t think so as Dan is doing a sterling job fixing their mistakes. They had plenty of opportunity to see what was coming and they did NOTHING. This could easily have been stopped if they had looked at what went wrong with Newmarch aged care facility. It beggars belief that we are in this situation, it should never had happened.
And of course it doesnt mean that ADF personnel wont contract covid themselves……
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ML, Then I blame Colbeck as well. One wonders why Vic has an aged care minister if they do nothing?
It needs to be repeated, often, that three of the biggest causes of things spinning out of control re the covid19 are due to SfM and band of no-hopers.
1. Late in closing/controlling/regulating borders to US and other diseased countries (Dutton – Borders)
2. Allowed in the Ruby Princess, contrary to SfM explicit instructions (Dutton – Borders – again)
3. Repeated failures to control outbreaks in aged care facilities (Colbeck – Aged care)
ML, True. But others have played their part (or not played it) that has caused it to be worse than it should be.
Pee Bee
What do y0u mean they did nothing. Seriously is that what you think.
This is a very highly contagious virus that the only people taking it seriously from the get go, were people such as the health minister etc.
What is happening is showing up the huge defects in how these sectors are run.
Have you seen the comments from the commissioner in charge of aged care over the past few weeks. She said everything has been in place that ought to be, and all systems are being abided by.
And do you know who always encouraged people to visit their family in care homes despite the risk of infection by the visitors?
Easy question.
Who to believe?
The difference, of course, is that the optimism around Shorten was based on a narrow poll lead with qualitative elements doing most of the lifting work. Whereas Biden is consistently leading with a monumental margin. In many cases, by double digits.
I guess if I were communicating to potential volunteers and donors, or to voters tempted to “stay at home” because it’s in the bag, I’d be inclined to downplay Biden’s chances to avoid complacency but, seeing that this is a blog full of hyper-political Australians, I am comfortable in saying that Trump’s position looks more like Abbott’s vs. Gillard in early 2013, than Shorten’s vs. Morrison in early 2019 (if you want to lean on Australian parallels.)
Sure, there’s still “plenty of time” for things to change but that value is just over three months now. That window to change things radically is closing extremely fast, and I have seen no evidence of anything doing that.
I mean Biden is right now leading some polls in Texas FFS.
PeeBee,
It absolutely should never have happened and it’s Greg Hunt who is the federal Health Minister during this national emergency, Richard Colbeck who is federal Aged Care Minister during this national emergency in Aged Care homes and Peter Dutton who is the Border Control Minister during this national pandemic and who only appears to be able to spare the time, not to do his job, but to go on rancid radio 2GB to spout off to his ‘mate’, Rancid Ray Hadley.
Sure, state ministers need to be held to account, as do the Premiers and Chief Ministers, but they can’t do ALL the work here! I mean, what’s the point of Morrison’s, much touted National Cabinet, if the federal arm is lame and only turns up for good news announcements!?! Not to mention that they can’t even co-ordinate their messages properly with the states, for example wrt a national policy on mask wearing, manufacturing of PPE and pre-emptive border closures? How about even some glitzy ads, which they seem to be experts at, that give people some myth-busting advice about the virus, so that clowns don’t take the mike and spout garbage at people about the virus which causes them to not believe in the seriousness of this virus, or at worst that it is a ‘hoax’?
Not to mention the fact that it is beyond time for Neoliberal economic orthodoxy, which has seen Privatisation of services such as security, and the seemingly never-ending casualisation and de-unionisation of the workforce, hit for six out of the park so that we return to a well-trained, competent workforce that manages these situations competently from the get-go?
PeeBee
Sure, blame should be sheeted home to all responsible.
It’s the ‘blame the state’s ministers’ (and not the Fed’s) that annoys me.
Oh, and five more examples – that of SfM personally white anting the premier’s efforts:
4. Actively campaigning against border closures between states
5. Actively campaigning against school closures
6. Actively pushing for re-opening too soon for Vic and NSW
7. Actively inducing people to ignore social distancing by encouraging going to the footy
8. Actively campaigning against wearing of masks
The furtive Prime Minister! A Tory running scared is a pleasing sight!
We were out in force … but Back Door Boris gave us the slip
“ YESTERDAY a good contingent of people from Inveryess drove to Kinloss Barracks in convoy, hoping to catch a glimpse of and have a word with the Prime Minister, Britain’s very own Boris Johnson, who flew in and out of Scotland and managed to avoid being seen by any of us.”
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18603747.force-back-door-boris-gave-us-slip/
“Rancid Ray Hadley.”
***
Uhhhg yes! Could not agree more.
SfM is our new Teflon Man
Only now are some (SOME!) in the msm calling out some of the fed’s mistakes in this whole sorry affair.
And that criticism will disappear.
C@t
Yep. This is the space that Albo and co need to speak on at present.
They have been mute in putting pressure on Morrison, Dutton, Greg hunt, and Richard colebeck.
Seriously if this pandemic isnt controlled , the economy is a clusterf@@k.
Debt and deficit stuff is superfluous at present in my view
Maude Lynne @ #1825 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 1:21 pm
…Because Morrison is a ruthless bastard, as are all who sail on his ship SS PMO. They’ll just heavy any journalist who dares to expose their achilles heel. Annika Smethurst sure has learned her lesson, if the embarrassing front page of The Sunday Telegraph after the Eden-Monaro By-election is any guide.
C@t at 1:18pm
Spot On!!
Victoria @ #1826 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 1:21 pm
Sad to say, though Albanese is trying manfully, his speech impediment gets in the way of clearly making his points.
It needs to be remembered that both NSW and VIC and account for 14 million people.
Even if the other states manage covid well, it wont mean a damn thing for the economy going forward.
C@t
Albo can get others to step up and say their piece too. I’m not talking about making political points. Its about ensuring that they are held to account to do what is required to manage this pandemic. Rather than having their sycophants in the media scapegoating Victoria and by extension ita govt.
I’ve had a gutful over this past month about it all.
“It needs to be remembered that both NSW and VIC”
NSW seem to be going ok at present. What are they doing differently from Victoria?
The media has wasted a month playing the political blame game regarding security guards getting covid and exposing others.
Well low and behold, its not that hard to get covid to bloody well start with, as is evidenced by health professionals contracting it.
The media could have trained their sights on ensuring that enough money was being put in the aged sector for people to be able to take
Leave as needed etc.
Our MSM as usual, are reactive. Not proactive.
Blobbit
Relying on luck, and reduced testing rates. (down by 25K this week cf last week)
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx
“Relying on luck, and reduced testing rates. (down by 25K this week cf last week)”
The comment about reducing testing rates is bordering on conspiracy theory territory.
Sure part of it is luck, but if we’re ascribing the difference completely to luck, then we’re basically saying that the response from government is irrelevant.
TESTS
Total Tests Conducted
STATE TESTS DEL NET
Victoria 1,457,546 20,313
New South Wales
1,327,964 30,535
Looks like yesterday NSW did more testing
Blobbit
Yes they are holding the line so far. Victoria looked that way about 5 weeks ago, until it exploded. That’s how this virus plays.
Have you seen how it has tracked overseas.
We are not special. Victoria and NSW are big in terms of population. Qld too. But they are not demographically as concentrated as the other two.
Victoria and Melbourne are actually the most densely populated state and city.
Therefore more likely to find itself in this position.
“Yes they are holding the line so far. Victoria looked that way about 5 weeks ago, until it exploded. That’s how this virus plays.”
Yes, I understand that. However if NSW have caught it early enough they still have a chance of controlling it.
The population density in Australian cities isn’t that vastly different.
Their ABC:
https://youtu.be/HtV-2X4BjQI
Blobbit says:
Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 11:50 am
““I think our Asian population has an advantage, as they have nice small noses.”
I know you’re not meaning to be racist, but this is the type of comment that leads to all sorts of conspiracy theories.
Next we’ll be hearing that “Asians” have better controlled the virus because of their noses, not because of competent government.”
No. It’s plonker like you that make comments like this that are the problem.
What Lizzie said is factually accurate.
PeeBee you will have to be more careful in assigning blame to the Liberals and absolving Labor of any blame in the future. I know it is difficult to do so, but think harder before you post. Is there any negative slant in your post that the Labor stooges would pounce upon? Would C@t approve this message? These are the questions you should ask yourself before pressing Post Comment. And remember above all, Daniel Andrews is doing a brilliant job.
Blobbit
I didn’t imply NSW gov is reducing testing rates, I reported testing rates had reduced in the past week cf previous week. And total tests done since March is not really relevant.
No matter what the reason, fewer tests = fewer cases found. No conspiracy required; it’s just a fact.
Gov’t action is important, in fact NSW health systems are better than Vic b/c they are decentralised, and they used police to guard the quarantine hotels.
But luck plays a role. You go shopping and stand waiting in a queue distanced of course, but if the person 1.5m away has the virus, and sneezes, then you could get it. Luck (bad) you see.
Multiply bad luck incidents across a shopping centre or meatworks and you get a cluster.
Luck.
C@tmomma @ #1838 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 11:44 am
No matter how good his message is, his style of presentation is really annoying. If he played it straight his message would come across a lot more powerfully.
Bucephalus
Thank you. Not having been brought up in the age of political correctness, I can’t see what’s wrong with stating a fact that everyone knows. As it happens, I found it difficult to fit a mask yesterday because I have a bit of a turned up nose and it struck me that a flatter shape might be more suitable. 🙂
There was a very famous ad from the 1980s that said Asians were better at manufacturing electronics because they were shorter than other nationalities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96iJsdGkl44
Danama Papers @ #1842 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 1:54 pm
No offence intended but I think his audience is not 50+ males from WA. 🙂
nath @ #1840 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 1:51 pm
Oh what a predictable swipe.
I don’t find it hard.
As for the talk about what happened in the 2016 election with regards to polling I put forward this graph but I have no clue of the validity of it.
Nath
I liked it 🙂
rofl