It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.
Also:
• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.
• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.
• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.
• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.
Maybe Guytaur is right and the Dems are Avery good chance of winning the senate. A new poll has them up in Maine by 5pts against Collins.
The caveats being it is a bit of an outlier and a Dem sponsored poll. The caveats to the caveats being that an outlier only because there are few good polls in that state and it is one of the more reliable party sponsored pollsters.
Scout
Reality is going to have to bite sooner or later.
Florida is a must win for TRump….. if he fails to win there it is virtually impossible to get 270 electoral votes.From what I can see there is no possibility of pick ups from the democrats
Victoria – hope so, have a real fear about the damage that will be done before that.
Have friends who live in Portland Oregon. The reality they are facing with contract mercenaries armed and taking peaceful protesters off the street is real.
It scares me how many think this stuff is ok, had a debate with my father-in-law last week re the role of the Republicans allowing Trump to exist. He would not concede that it is the Republicans responsibility and went on to list their accomplishments over the decades. To me he exists because they allow it and have their 200k plus salaries to defend.
Lets hope the Lincoln project gets some traction.
Scout
The Lincoln project members are ruthless republicans and you could say are part of reason why the Republican Party is now so debased.
So I am confident they know exactly what needs to be done to get rid of Trump and his posse
4U Rakali
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2z8kRQToNQXDhS5qYPWCj2
Victoria @ #1755 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 10:59 am
If only Labor could try debasing itself and get rid of Scrooter & Co.
Scout @ #1754 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 10:57 am
Let’s hope the Curtin Project gets up soon.
Victoria there is some irony there, with the Lincoln project being made up of some who contributed to the current scenario and have operated the same as Trump.
The use of force on citizens and its acceptance as ok scares me, getting close to a fascist state.
Biden already well ahead with 278. Florida (29) would give him 307. Arizona (11) would give him 318 out of 538.
https://www.270towin.com/
mundo
For now I would merely like Albo and Co to hold the feds accountable for how they are managing the aged care sector here in Victoria. This virus is a looming disaster in this space.
I don’t care about the politics, I am wanting outcomes that help improve a terrible situation.
Scout
Yes. There is a saying. You reap what you sow.
Victoria, completely agree. The Repugs, even the moderate ones, abandoned norms and Political decency in a base attempt to win elections through division – cultivating tribal groups and inciting hatred.
That tribe then took control of the party and voted in Trump as candidate.
SK
Yep. In a nutshell
Mick Quinlivan @ #1755 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 10:54 am
And this is a very good point. Where is the tallk about seats the Democrats could lose? It’s all about the Republicans.
Looks like Victoria will have over 300 today.
NSW holding the line at 14 with 30,000 tests. Doing well so far.
C@t:
There has been plenty of talk about Doug Jones losing his Senate seat.
mundo – stop trolling.
cracker of a day down here in Tas, get out and enjoy it.
Mick Quinlivan @ #1757 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 10:54 am
Stop calling it so early. Remember when PM Shorten was a locked-in inevitability?
Trump leads 51-49, and everyone who doesn’t want to see four more years of him needs to pull out all the stops. It’s the only responsible way to look at things.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
4,248,327
Deaths:
148,490
– 78,009 new cases and 1,141 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
BREAKING: Florida reported 12,444 new coronavirus cases on Friday, 135 deaths and 581 new hospitalizations. The number of cases in the state since the start of the pandemic has now exceeded 400,000.
With a COVID-19 death in Florida every 8 minutes, this community fears who will be next
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-07-23/a-coronavirus-death-every-8-minutes-this-florida-community-fears-who-will-be-next
“Victoria that is a rational response but in a rational world we would not have Trump as President of the States.”
***
Nor would someone with such a terrible track record like Biden’s be the presumptive Democratic candidate, but unfortunately we don’t live in a rational world.
Victoria @ #1757 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 10:59 am
Ron Steslow seems like a very moderate Republican though.
Voluntary voting makes US elections far less predictable than ours – that plus the difficulty in voting over there – long queues, held on a working day, voter suppression efforts in some states.
As we know now, ours aren’t as predictable as some thought.
I think Nevada was a possibility for Trump. If his general polling improves it may come into play.
He talked up Minn and a poll a while back showed him only 5pts behind. But that’s not likely to happen now unless something completely unforeseen happens.
Steve777
Thanks for finding the link, proving how far removed the privileged Minister is from the real world, and how she doesn’t make any effort to find out the truth.
“Stop calling it so early. Remember when PM Shorten was a locked-in inevitability?”
***
Never mind that, although it is a good point, but a more relevant lesson is what happened to Clinton. Trump needs to go – the last thing the world needs is the Democratic establishment to be making the same dumb mistakes that delivered Trump the presidency in the first place. Do not underestimate him. Do not take states for granted. Fight like you are behind. Don’t just assume Trump is going to lose because he is such a nutcase, make damn sure he loses.
Talking to ‘my’ medical specialist yesterday, his opinion was that Andrews hasn’t done anything wrong, and that if people are unwilling to obey the rules, Victoria is heading for a harder lockdown which will be much more onerous.
poroti
————
Good one! But don’t forget the deer hunting!
That (and sheep) is what the clearances were for!
https://www.dunalastairhotel.com/scottish-highlands/deer-stalking-holidays
Biden made electoral college rational sense. He just needs to be as solid (or as airy) as he was in the primaries and he will win back Pa and Mich. that leaves Trump with a lot of ground to cover.
Brooks outlined that Biden will focus on middle class jobs and opportunities. The campaign has a clear and disciplined electoral college aim.
IMHO, Biden calling Trump a racist was a little ad lib he should otherwise avoid.
Oops i meant deer Stalking!
Of course Dan Andrews has done nothing wrong. The more infections and deaths in Victoria the better job Dan Andrews is doing. He should be absolved of any responsibility. Perhaps the public hanging of a few nightclub bouncers will appease any misguided anger at Saint Dan.
nath
Just shut up. You’re not funny.
“There will always be cases that come because Australia has not completely shut itself off from the world.” Mr Morrison said, because that’s Liberal Party policy.
As i have said, the only way the Liberal Party would seek elimination is if the virus was discovered to be an Australian native marsupial!
Until this week the media was judging the picture according to the number of known CV cases. Now they’re counting the deaths as the measure.
In the specialist’s rooms, I had my temperature taken and was handed a mask. I have concluded that the shape of the nose makes a lot of difference when it comes to fit, and I think our Asian population has an advantage, as they have nice small noses.
So, if NSW doesn’t get a spike in New infections, what does that show?
There is a big difference between someone on here calling the election and the Biden Campaign getting overconfident.
There is no way they will be overconfident. There is no way they will ignore state campaign officials warning of problems. And there is no way anti Trump voters will get complacent – This won’t be a Goodies election. Anti Trump voters are crouched on the starting line, Engines pumping and thumping in time. When The green light flashes and the flags go up; Churning and burning, they yearn for to vote. They deftly maneuver and muscle in queues. Fuel burning fast on an empty tank. Reckless and wild, they pour through the turns. Their prowess is potent and secretly stern
(For C@t)
“I think our Asian population has an advantage, as they have nice small noses.”
I know you’re not meaning to be racist, but this is the type of comment that leads to all sorts of conspiracy theories.
Next we’ll be hearing that “Asians” have better controlled the virus because of their noses, not because of competent government.
Blobbit
Oh dear, this is so silly isn’t it.
Blobbit
It shows that NSW has handled the pandemic a hell of a lot better than Victoria has.
Taylormade
I have read that after the disaster that was the Ruby Princess, NSW stepped up its systems, but Victoria was taken by surprise.
Taylormade
NSW and federal libs/nats have not handled the pandemic well
Ruby princess has been the biggest disaster
Apparently the hotspots in NSW are still growing and spreading
I didn’t know Richard Colebeck minister for aged care is from Tasmania.
I’m looking at his press releases and social media.
Very lack lustre indeed.
https://m.facebook.com/colbeckrichard/
Oh I missed this from a few days ago.
Support for aged care residents and aged care workers across Victoria
The Australian and Victorian Governments, in collaboration with representatives from the aged care sector, have announced additional measures to ensure aged care providers are equipped to minimise the spread of COVID-19 and can continue providing quality care.
Listen Print Share
Portrait of Greg Hunt
The Hon Greg Hunt MP
Minister for Health
Media event date:
19 July 2020
Date published:
20 July 2020
Media type:
Media release
Audience:
General public
The Australian and Victorian Governments, in collaboration with representatives from the aged care sector, are today announcing additional measures to ensure aged care providers are equipped to minimise the spread of COVID-19 and can continue providing quality care.
https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/support-for-aged-care-residents-and-aged-care-workers-across-victoria
Speaking of an leader who is absent , there has been no word from Micheal McCormack for weeks
Lizzie, ‘but Victoria was taken by surprise.’
And they shouldn’t have been surprised. Our health minister, Jenny Makakos, had plenty of time to make sure we didn’t have a Newmarch situation and now we have heaps. She should be sacked.
What concerns me about NSW is they have not done anything about the additional hardship insecure workers suffer if they are tested for the virus. I don’t believe that Andrews would have instigated his hardship package which also now includes a payment to keep you at home while awaiting test results if it wasn’t a driving force for spreading the virus.
The differences between Sydney now and Victoria when the numbers were at the same level is Sydney have been pre warned. The population in NSW are watching what has happened in Victoria and for many they will have reenacted their own behavioural changes.
The encouragement to wear masks was something being dismissed a month ago, but the scientific opinion changed and the use of masks is now happening
Morrison has started telling Victorians to listen to the Premier, he is now acknowledging the problem and advising them to follow the restrictions, something he was actually working against earlier in the Victorian outbreak.
Only time will tell if NSW has dodged this bullet, I think the linking to numerous church’s, associated schools is telling. Where in Sydney do impoverished, insecure workers congregate. Are they testing there.
Victoria @ #1798 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 12:10 pm
Is part of that preventing Casual Aged Care workers going from home to home spreading the virus because they are too much on the financial edge to stop working?