Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more

A second tranche of Newspoll results finds Daniel Andrews taking a coronavirus-related popularity hit but still doing well in absolute terms, with Gladys Berejiklian also down from earlier peaks.

It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.

Also:

• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.

• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.

• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.

• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,045 comments on “Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more”

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  1. lizzie @ #1700 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 9:31 am

    Socrates

    I think I might have picked up an undertone of resentment towards the useless father. Plus a hint of a disorganised household. Perhaps I’m too harsh. 😉

    Yep. Two hands in the peanut butter jar!?! Who lets their kid that close to the jar of peanut butter!?! It only makes for more work down the track. Bringing up kids is all about forward planning and logistics. 🙂

  2. @Rakali

    The UK is coming apart at the seams, just as many predicted it would post-Brexit. Scotland is demanding it’s independence, while the rumblings in Northern Ireland are getting louder and louder.

    Aside from that, I am proud to add that the Irish Greens are now part of the government of the Republic of Ireland, of which I am a dual citizen. Éirinn go Brách!

  3. Steve777

    Forgetting the current pandemic for a moment, getting on the property ladder is not easy for young people today. Apart from the cost of housing, insecure work is a primary reason for lenders refusing to give loans.

    Waiting for an inheritance isn’t always an option either. Due to the fact that by the time you get an inheritance, much time has passed and housing needs don’t wait for death. Lol. Also any inheritance may have lost a great deal of value as it is needed for aged care placement and care.

  4. I also thought the photo was a bit dodge. ‘Construction’? Teaching the kids that life is all about destroying the environment?

  5. Victoria @ #1703 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 9:34 am

    Steve777

    Forgetting the current pandemic for a moment, getting on the property ladder is not easy for young people today. Apart from the cost of housing, insecure work is a primary reason for lenders refusing to give loans.

    Waiting for an inheritance isn’t always an option either. Due to the fact that by the time you get an inheritance, much time has passed and housing needs don’t wait for death. Lol. Also any inheritance may have lost a great deal of value as it is needed for aged care placement and care.

    Yep, my kids were lucky that their grandmother was still living at home until the day she died.

  6. Lizzie, Cat

    “I think I might have picked up an undertone of resentment towards the useless father. Plus a hint of a disorganised household. Perhaps I’m too harsh. ”

    Dreadfully sorry if any comment sounded like criticism of the scrupulously ethical Barnaby or his virtuous partner Vicky. I can truly say I hold both of them in equally high regard. As a taxpayer, it is gratifying to know that my contribution to the nation in part helps make ends meet for such a deserving couple 😐

    Have a good day all.

  7. [‘A single case of coronavirus linked to a woman in southwest Sydney could spark an outbreak, authorities fear.
    The woman, who attended several church services more than a week ago, is believed to have been infected at the time. Parishioners in south west Sydney have been put on notice after she attended church services at:

    • Bankstown: St Brendan’s Catholic Church (6.30pm to 7.30pm, July 16)

    • Fairfield East: Ausia Funeral Services (1pm to 8pm, July 17)

    • Bankstown: St Brendan’s Catholic Church funeral service (10am to 11am, July 18)

    • Rookwood Cemetery: St John of God Law burial service (11.30am to 1pm, July 18)

    • Mt Pritchard: Our Lady of Mt Carmel Catholic Church (7.30am, July 19).’]

    This is a quintessential example of how quickly things have the potential to go pear-shaped.

  8. C@t

    Not a common situation anymore. Although My parents are both still at home.
    The family pitched in to make their current living arrangements workable.
    They don’t want to go into care and we don’t want that either.
    Not for any other reason, but they want to stay and enjoy their own home for as long as possible.
    There may come a day when that changes.

  9. Mundo@8.25
    “Sooner or later Labor has to go flat out on full elimination of Scrooter & Co”
    “Scrooter & Co” as you have reasonably named them, are intent on eliminating themselves. Scrooter & Co will be eliminated by their own deeds well before they have eliminated Covid 19.
    As Labor is in opposition, the LNP Morrison government, governing by decree and tempting fate, is well advanced in its own elimination.
    While Morrison takes holidays, continues to allow the big business lobby to run rampant, forcing the modern working classes into homelessness and unemployment and destroying small businesses along the way, the lucky country, saturated with aerial propaganda bombing by the MSM’s dross and repetitive opinion pieces is fast becoming unlucky.
    The bodgie from Bronte,the Shire and Kirrabilli House will have the Federal Liberal and National Parties living in foxholes by Christmas as the public waken to the folly of electing Morrison as PM and exposing Morrison’s full plume of incompetence and illusion.
    The Australian voters will save themselves from the ravages of Covid 19 and then save the economy, by eliminating the marketeer.
    Only at this time will we experience the everyday freedoms we have all taken for granted.
    Mundo, by criticizing Albanese and Labor on a daily basis, you achieve nothing. Rather like George.

  10. Greensborough Growler @ #1708 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 7:42 am

    Anyone looking for a Primer on the Lincoln Project could look here.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-25/the-lincoln-project-is-trying-to-troll-donald-trump/12488902

    The team themselves admit that they deliberately troll him because a) he’s so easy to goad and b) once goaded, he and his campaign lose days attacking the Lincoln Project. Days they could otherwise more productively spend campaigning.


  11. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 8:52 am

    Yep, those babies will look very cute out on the streets when their parents get evicted.

    Yes, and even if that is not a risk.

    I love kids, really really love the grandchildren but we are a two family bunch. The truth of the matter, you really should have three if family life suits you. Reality, two gives you satisfaction, three is an expensive indulgence.

  12. lizzie @ #1706 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 9:38 am

    C@t

    Remember Barnaby’s “my private life is my private life” ?
    Obviously not when there’s a buck to be made.

    Barnaby Joyce never stops scheming to get himself front and centre. It can be guaranteed that he still harbours designs on the National Party leadership again and this remaking of Vikki and the kids is of a piece with that.

  13. Mavis @8:46

    ”… The woman, who attended several church services more than a week ago, is believed to have been infected at the time.…
    This is a quintessential example of how quickly things have the potential to go pear-shaped.”

    Yes. I think that the second wave happened in Victoria (so far) rather than NSW is just the luck of the draw. Even other states as border restrictions are relaxed. And instead of religious services it could well have been attendance at sporting events or visits to pubs.

  14. Victoria @ #1710 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 9:47 am

    C@t

    Not a common situation anymore. Although My parents are both still at home.
    The family pitched in to make their current living arrangements workable.
    They don’t want to go into care and we don’t want that either.
    Not for any other reason, but they want to stay and enjoy their own home for as long as possible.
    There may come a day when that changes.

    I’m in the same boat. My parents are still living in their own home but my dad just turned 80 the other day and my mum’s memory is going so I don’t know how long that situation will last. And they are so far away from me! If they need to go into care I would prefer they came back down here to be near my brother and I and the grandkids.

  15. Firefox

    Aside from that, I am proud to add that the Irish Greens are now part of the government of the Republic of Ireland, of which I am a dual citizen. Éirinn go Brách!
    ————
    Yes. It is interesting in UK. The Tory Government think the “unwritten” UK constitution means they can do anything they like to suppress the “upstart” Jocks.

    On the other hand the Independence movement in Scotland is under real tension. Many see the SNP leadership as too inactive in taking action before the looming brexit occurs in 5 months time. They just seem to hang on the Tories buckling and granting their so called s. 30 “permission” to hold Indyref2. There is no Plan B.

    The proposed Trade Bill will over ride Acts of the Scottish Parliament if interferes with internal UK trade or new Trade Agreements entered into by Westminster, effectively neutering any Scottish deviation from Westminster policy.

    Some argue for the withdrawal of all SNP MPs from Westminster like Sinn Fein.

  16. c@t

    my parents live very near me and rest of my family.

    It makes it so much easier for me to attend to their needs. Doing their shopping, medical appointments, and sorting their medications.

    I could not imagine being able to do much for them if they lived so far away.

  17. Stephen King
    @StephenKing

    I have started to see a lot of Trump signs in my little patch of America, and each one provokes the same surge of unreality. I think, “Really? After all the deaths, and all he’s done to wreck the economy? REALLY?”

  18. Vic,
    Yep. I can’t just pop around to their place. At the moment my dad is healthy and is doing everything. That won’t last forever.

  19. c@t

    I’ve concluded that people who continue to support Trump have been red pilled. lol!

    Speaking of which, I think it is about time those behind Qanon are exposed.

    Surely it can’t be that hard

  20. The woman, who attended several church services more than a week ago, is believed to have been infected at the time.

    Wow, church crawls are a thing?!

  21. C@t

    Whoa. The Lincoln project are taking no prisoners.
    Which takes me back to Qanon.

    The whole premise of Qanon started 3 years ago,with someone posting on 4chan claiming to be in military.
    I’ve long thought it was a psychological operation that portrays Trump as the saviour against pedophiles.
    But as per the Goebells handbook. Accuse others of which you, yourself are guilty of.

    But I just saw this on Rick Wilson’s twitter feed!

    Rick Wilson Retweeted

    ☤ Doc ☤
    @Doc_68W_
    ·
    24m
    Replying to
    @ProjectLincoln
    and
    @realDonaldTrump
    What if…and bear with me here…. Ghislaine Maxwell is Q? cc:
    @TheRickWilson

  22. With respect to the gestapo like scenario playing out in Portland Oregano, and the GMaxwell,Qanon stuff, It feels as if it is culminating to something shall we say,game changing.

    And all in the midst of a out of control pandemic In the USA.

    2020 has been a heck of a year

  23. I’d be cheesed off if I were a Scot, having been dragged into the English Tories’ mad project to restore buccaneering capitalism. I’d want out of a UK that’s so hopelessly infested with the neoliberal virus.

  24. I don’t know when or if Anne Ruston said this, but if she did, she’s not fit to be a Minister. But then, how many of them are?

  25. Sob. Sob. Wail. Poor little me. Oh the agony.

    “He also discussed his use of Twitter, admitting he “often” regretted what he posted. In the old days, he said, you could write a letter, and then reflect on it before sending.” What an utter crock of smelly brown substance. The Donald doesn’t, and can’t do regret, his malignant narcissism overpowers any other positive emotions he purports to have.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-was-devastated-trump-reflects-on-becoming-president-20200725-p55fch.html

  26. Sadly, Little England with the Etonians in charge is struggling for relevance both overseas and at home. No amount of flag waving of the St George flag is going to make any difference. For those of us with some kind of heritage and love of the old place that such is happening is sadder than sad. Bit like an old actor putting on new clothes and makeup pretending they are 50 years younger and important…..

  27. Victoria – Trumps supporters (and I have heard them already) will say but Clinton was more involved than Trump and act like that is an appropriate response.

  28. In the old days, he said, you could write a letter, and then reflect on it before sending

    And you can do the same with emails, tweets and other electronic messages. Engage brain before hitting “send” or “post”.

  29. Cutting taxes would lead to shareholders and corporate executives snorting more cocaine and spending more on “escorts” …

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