Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more

A second tranche of Newspoll results finds Daniel Andrews taking a coronavirus-related popularity hit but still doing well in absolute terms, with Gladys Berejiklian also down from earlier peaks.

It is apparently the case that Essential Research will, at long last, be including voting intention when it publishes its next survey next week. I also gather that it’s back to a fortnightly publication schedule after going to weekly for the first few months of the coronavirus crisis.

Also:

• My Newspoll post on Sunday night noted that the sample was an unusually high 1850, compared with the more normal 1500 to 1600. It turns out that this was done to juice up the New South Wales and Victorian sub-samples to 601 and 605 respectively, allowing The Australian to run a follow-up yesterday on the respective state governments’ handling of coronavirus. This predictably found a decline in Daniel Andrews’ numbers, though they remain high in absolute terms, with his approval down ten since a June 24-28 poll to 57%, and disapproval up the same amount to 37%. However, Gladys Berejiklian was also down four on approval to 64% and up four on disapproval to 30%, suggesting part of Andrews’ fall was purely gravitational. Andrews is still rated as having handled the virus well by 61% and poorly by 36%, compared with 72% and 25% from June 24-28 and 85% and 11% from April 21-26. However, the decline has been concentrated in the “very well” response, which has progressed from 51% to 32% to 27%. Berejiklian is at 68% for well (down eleven) and 26% for poorly (up ten). Scott Morrison is now doing better than both, at 72% well (down seven) and 24% poorly (up six) in New South Wales and 77% well (down four) and 20% poorly (up three) in Victoria. Results at national level found 76% saying they were more concerned about moving too quickly to relax lockdowns and restrictions, up four from May 13-16, compared with 20% saying they were more concerned about moving too slowly, down four. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday.

• An academic survey conducted by the Democracy 2025 project, encompassing the United States, United Kingdom and Italy as well as Australia, records a dramatic increase in trust in the federal government (54%, compared with 29% in last year’s post-election Australian Election Study survey) and the public service (up from 38% to 54%), with smaller improvements recorded for the media (television up seven to 39%, newspapers up eight to 37% and radio up three to 41%). The survey was conducted from a sample of 1059 in May and June – small-sample state breakdowns provide another increment of evidence that Western Australia’s government is doing best of all out of the crisis.

• The Victorian Liberals have been spruiking internal robo-polling, apparently commissioned by Senator James Patterson, showing 65% to 70% disapproval of state government agreements with China as part of the latter’s “Belt and Road” initiative, based on a sample of 7000 respondents across seven marginal Labor-held seats.

• South Australian Attorney-General Vickie Chapman has confirmed the government will proceed with an attempt to introduce optional preferential voting in the state. Labor and the Greens are opposed, which will leave the fate of the proposal in the hands of upper house cross-benchers elected under the Nick Xenophon banner. A blog post by Antony Green tackles the issue with characteristic thoroughness. I gather they have thought better of clamping down on the dissemination of how-to-vote cards at polling booths, contrary to earlier reports.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,045 comments on “Miscellany: Newspoll state leaders ratings, trust in goverment and more”

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  1. C@t:

    Like Vic, I couldn’t tell you what Colbeck looks like. In fact if it wasn’t for people posting about him yesterday I wouldn’t have known who the Aged Care Minister is!

  2. The serco run centrelink call centre office in my part of woods, was closed down yesterday cos of covid.

    Waiting to hear from stuart Robert about support for the 450 staff stood down.

    Laughs hysterically……………

  3. Victoria @ #1650 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 6:18 am

    Victoria was undermined by the federal and state liberals and nationals from the get go.
    Giving the premier the moniker Dictator Dan.
    Demanding and putting adverts in layers to re open in economy and schools back in April.

    All the while allowing travellers back to the country to this day, whilst covid runs rampant around the globe.

    No frickin wonder the MSM and fellow supporters of the coalition are doing their hardest to scapegoat Dan Andrews, rather than where it should be. With the fiberals.

    There’s nothing wrong with letting people come into the Country if you quarantine them effectively.

    Ultimately it’s the Potato’s responsibility to ensure this is being done.

    No wonder he’s been so quiet!

  4. I’m so pleased that at last we are seeing a few opinion writers criticising Morrison/Frydenberg’s economic ‘strategy’.

  5. mundo says:
    Saturday, July 25, 2020 at 8:25 am
    Sooner or later Labor has to go flat out on full elimination of Scrooter & Co.

    ———-
    Not with the current leadership, which is appeasing the libs/nats corrupt foreign media propaganda unit

  6. BarneyITB

    Dutton quiet? You must have missed hearing about him being on 2gb radio with Ray Hadley
    this week.

    Prompting this burn from Daniel Andrews

    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    #DanielAndrews on #PeterDutton saying he should “swallow his pride” and ask for more C’wealth support: “If I need something I don’t hesitate to ask – and I’ll tell you who I ask. I ask the Prime Minister. I don’t waste my time asking the bloke he beat in a party room ballot.”

  7. Victoria

    Several years ago I remember that Serco was in trouble in the UK for shady practices and I was more than a little surprised when they were welcomed into Australia. They must have a very persuasive sales group.

  8. Morning all. I see the government wants us to have more children. Not for love or anything silly like that, but to bail out the government from its total inability to reform the economy and create any improvement in productivity or generate economic growth without population growth. Women of Australia, have one for Josh!
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/07/25/baby-bonus-frydenberg-costello/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Saturday%20News%20-%2020200725

  9. Lizzie

    Serco are huge and permeate every sector in Australia.

    Morrison and co have outsourced practically everything to them.

    It’s about time the blowtorch was directed to the feds.

  10. lizzie: “Several years ago I remember that Serco was in trouble in the UK for shady practices and I was more than a little surprised when they were welcomed into Australia. They must have a very persuasive sales group.”

    Apropos of nothing much, their current CEO is Winston Churchill’s grandson.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Soames

  11. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1655 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 8:29 am

    Victoria @ #1650 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 6:18 am

    Victoria was undermined by the federal and state liberals and nationals from the get go.
    Giving the premier the moniker Dictator Dan.
    Demanding and putting adverts in layers to re open in economy and schools back in April.

    All the while allowing travellers back to the country to this day, whilst covid runs rampant around the globe.

    No frickin wonder the MSM and fellow supporters of the coalition are doing their hardest to scapegoat Dan Andrews, rather than where it should be. With the fiberals.

    There’s nothing wrong with letting people come into the Country if you quarantine them effectively.

    Ultimately it’s the Potato’s responsibility to ensure this is being done.

    No wonder he’s been so quiet!

    Time for Labor to make some noise.

  12. lizzie @ #1656 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 8:31 am

    I’m so pleased that at last we are seeing a few opinion writers criticising Morrison/Frydenberg’s economic ‘strategy’.

    David Crowe the other day got it in one:

    With the health crisis getting worse, Australians should not be shocked at Thursday’s confirmation that the deficit will reach $184.5 billion this year.

    The number reshapes Australian political debate after a decade of Liberal and National alarm about deficits and debt. The parties that attacked Labor for posting deficits in a crisis a decade ago, but could not post surpluses in better times themselves, now ask voters to accept the worst numbers since World War II. No government has been mugged by reality quite like this.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/no-government-has-been-mugged-by-reality-quite-like-this-20200723-p55euj.html

    I loved the burn about ‘and couldn’t post a surplus in better times’ 😀

  13. Yep.

    See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    Serco stands down Melbourne call-centre staff without pay on one day’s notice.| Because they can. #auspol
    Serco stands down Melbourne call-centre staff without pay on one day’s notice
    Covid-19 outbreak sees multinational indefinitely shut down centre that had been processing Centrelink calls
    theguardian.com

  14. Tax cuts and industrial relations “reform”. That plus more culture war stuff. The Government will bungle the recovery when the worst of the crisis passes. They have nothing other than to use the crisis as an opportunity to redouble on what they wanted to do anyway.

  15. I really hope it is a tsunami and not just a blue wave.

    In the dozens of interviews we conducted with Republican and Democratic strategists as part of our latest Hotline House race ratings, one dynamic became apparent: The bottom is falling out for Republican candidates across the country, from traditional battleground states to even heavily Republican strongholds like Alaska. While public polling shows President Trump badly behind in typical swing states, internal surveys from top pollsters are indicating trouble in surprising locales.

    There are hints of the looming GOP shellacking all over. Joe Biden is up by a whopping 13 points in Trump’s new home state of Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac poll, as close to a must-win as it gets for the president. Trump is trailing in Texas by 1 point, consistent with other surveys showing the president in trouble in a state Republicans have carried in every election since 1976. Democrats are investing millions in Georgia, convinced that they can contest not just the presidential race but both Senate seats up for grabs in the traditionally red state. Democrats provided us with remarkable internal data from reliably Republican House seats—from Oklahoma to Indiana—showing districts that Trump carried by double-digits are now Biden battlegrounds in the presidential race.

    Biden is now the heavy favorite to win the presidency. This week, The Cook Political Report declared Democrats are favored to win back the Senate, with a massive Democratic gain of five to seven seats more likely than a narrow Republican majority. And our House race rankings of the most competitive races contained more Republican-held seats than Democratic ones, a stunning dynamic given how many red-district seats Democrats are defending after riding a big blue wave in the 2018 midterms.

    https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/708658?unlock=XZMW5BGIJVUT6MJF

  16. Socrates

    Observation by Cheryl kernot re Josh Frydenberg encouraging a baby boom to help economy.

    ………………………..

    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    Anatomy of birth of a “narrative”: 1.Jane Norman chairing Frydenberg’s Press Club address uses her first question to ask if there’ll be a baby bonus. Frydenberg answers population growth will help; 2 Andrew Probyn does after speech cross to Greg Jennett who asks about baby bonus
    7:57 PM · Jul 24, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
    111
    Retweets and comments
    235
    Likes
    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    12h
    Replying to
    @cheryl_kernot
    Probyn just happens to have a photo of Peter Costello & babies; 3. Jane Norman makes baby bonus & silly fertility puns the main focus of her 7pm news piece. ‍♀️ Elsewhere questions about superannuation withdrawals as de facto stimulus spending (Probyn being serious)
    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    12h
    and whether Libs should acknowledge hypocrisy of their debt & deficit campaign against Labor during GFC & years after. Who orchestrated this silly ABC set-up. Think I have an idea ‍♀️ And Twitter thinks Frydenberg suggested having babies. #auspol
    DropletSeedling TED. Fire IN HIBERNATION.
    @Tioz49
    ·
    12h
    Replying to
    @cheryl_kernot
    All very sickening Loudly crying face
    All #ABC people with a very #Packer approach.
    #ABC has been well and truly #Buttrosed.
    Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    12h
    I think they thought it was funny.

  17. Also very pleased that Jason Falinski has had a public reprimand for his boorishness.

    Australia’s leading academic expert on class actions has hit back at aggressive questioning from a government backbencher during a torrid federal parliamentary inquiry.

    “My God, is this going to be the standard of the questioning today,” Vince Morabito, a professor at Monash University, said after being peppered with queries from Jason Falinski, a Liberal MP from NSW.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/jul/24/class-action-expert-denies-liberal-mps-accusation-of-cherry-picking-data

  18. Socrates
    If you have been following demographics you could see this coming. Australia’s local reproduction has been seriously ( 1.3) below 2.1 for years.

    There is a good solid demographic reasons to offer free child care, don’t expect it from a government stuck in the 50’s.

    Sweden has tried free child care etc. (1.8) , it is better, but it is still not above 2.1.

    Australia’s long term problem, there are now very fer countries above 2.1 and the number shrinks each year. The virus has just moved the inevitable forward.

  19. C@t

    It’s not lost on me that Morrison is a mini Trumpolini.

    I’m waiting to see how they are going to play the China issue.

    Morrison and Trump together. What could go wrong,

    Sigh……..

  20. C@t:

    related to that.

    President Trump signed a memorandum Tuesday in support of barring undocumented immigrants from being counted for congressional apportionment next year.

    Doing so, he said, would represent a “better understanding of the Constitution” than the way apportionment has been implemented for over two centuries.

    “For the purpose of the reapportionment of Representatives following the 2020 census, it is the policy of the United States to exclude from the apportionment base aliens who are not in a lawful immigration status . . . to the maximum extent feasible and consistent with the discretion delegated to the executive branch,” the memo said.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/trump-administration-seeks-to-bar-undocumented-immigrants-from-a-portion-of-the-2020-census/2020/07/21/9af682ee-c87f-11ea-a99f-3bbdffb1af38_story.html

  21. Victoria @ #1661 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 6:32 am

    BarneyITB

    Dutton quiet? You must have missed hearing about him being on 2gb radio with Ray Hadley
    this week.

    Prompting this burn from Daniel Andrews

    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton
    #DanielAndrews on #PeterDutton saying he should “swallow his pride” and ask for more C’wealth support: “If I need something I don’t hesitate to ask – and I’ll tell you who I ask. I ask the Prime Minister. I don’t waste my time asking the bloke he beat in a party room ballot.”

    Yeah, so?

    What else has he had to say lately?

    Especially about border security.

  22. Re: Cheese

    Nobody is accusing the manufactures of being racist. It’s not the fault of the late Mr Coon that his last name also happened to be a racial slur. However, the fact is that it is a racial slur which causes great offence to First Australians. I commend the company for making this responsible decision. It is quite possible that they could suffer financially from the loss of a well known brand but they are obviously willing to cop that in order to do the right thing. That’s putting people before profit. Well done. That’s the kind of capitalism that can work. People first, money second.

  23. Steve777 @ #1671 Saturday, July 25th, 2020 – 8:46 am

    Tax cuts and industrial relations “reform”. That plus more culture war stuff. The Government will bungle the recovery when the worst of the crisis passes. They have nothing other than to use the crisis as an opportunity to redouble on what they wanted to do anyway.

    I’m amazed at how determined Morrison and Frydenburg are to push their Deregulation agenda using this crisis as cover!

  24. Lizzie, frednk

    OF course we know there is a problem with birthrates, but Josh completely fails to deal with it at source. The costs of childcare and housing are both highly relevant to working couples ability to have children. Josh has no intention of solving either problem because he wants to keep landlords rich and workers poor, yet still wants the children. He is a child.

  25. Barney ITB

    Hence my point. Dutton pops up to throw barbs everywhere but actually show accountability for his own job.

    Morrison and his ministers are really good at that sort of thing.

  26. C@t

    Mustn’t forget that Thatcher was a hero to Frydenberg, who has probably never had an original thought in his life.

    “Drawing on the free market philosophy of Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek, she embarked on an ambitious program of privatisation, deregulation and labour market reform”

    https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/latest-news/margaret-thatcher-a-hero-to-remember/
    Opinion Piece

    Date : Tue, 09 Apr 2013 00:00:00 +1100
    Author: Josh Frydenberg MP
    Publication: HeraldSun.com.au

  27. There is a heck of a lot of things Albo could be highlighting right about now. Considering parliament has been cancelled for now

  28. “Lizzie

    Serco are huge and permeate every sector in Australia.

    Morrison and co have outsourced practically everything to them.

    It’s about time the blowtorch was directed to the feds.”

    ***

    Private contractor Serco to run detention centres

    JUL 01, 2009

    As part of the refugee and asylum seeker policy embedded in the Labor party’s 2007 national platform and constitution, the party pledged:

    * The length and conditions of detention must be subject to review and detention centres managed by the public sector.

    Despite this, today UK services company Serco’s Australian subsidiary, Serco Australia, begins to phase in its control over seven detention centres. The Villawood, Maribyrnong, Darwin and Perth centres, and three centres on Christmas Island, will be run by Serco. Transition from existing service provider Global Solutions Ltd (now G4S) will commence in July, and is expected to be completed by November.

    In 2006 the former government announced it would not extend G4S’s $300 million contract when it expired at the end of 2007, and all detention services would be retendered.

    The Age reported in January that at the time, “Labor criticised the decision and said the contract with G4S should be terminated and the centres returned to government control so there was a clear line of responsibility back to the minister.”

    “This is the private company that has people coming in the doors with no mental health problems and going out as broken human beings,” then Labor immigration spokesman Tony Burke said. “There is one answer and one answer alone, and that is there have been enough breaches of this contract for the government to take action to terminate the privatisation of our detention centres. It was a bad idea from the start. It should not have taken place. It should not be continued.”

    The $370 million, five-year contract with Serco may be extended for a further four years. According to Dow Jones, Serco will manage and operate seven adult immigration detention centres and provide national and international transport and escort services from Australia.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/01/private-contractor-serco-to-run-detention-centres/

    By all means, turn the blowtorch on the Feds, just make sure you turn the blowtorch on your own party while you’re at it, for they deserve much of the “credit” for this abhorrent abuse of innocent people.

  29. Hartcher’s spot on with this, particularly his assessment of Albanese:

    [‘To now, the opposition has been largely irrelevant since the pandemic struck. Partly that’s because, to Anthony Albanese’s credit, he’s chosen to be a responsible political leader. He’s not exploited the coronavirus crisis or fearmongered but he has made constructive criticisms. He was well ahead of the government in calling for a wage subsidy, what we now know as JobKeeper, for instance.

    And partly Labor has been irrelevant because as long as the government has been observing the expert medical advice, the opposition is hardly better qualified than the epidemiologists. Labor has been wise to respect medical expertise, too.

    But the economic situation is very different. It opens the first real opportunity for Labor to make some political inroads. And the criticism that the government has no plan for the future is a potent one.’]

    As far as a plan for the future is concerned, Chalmers has been out and about pressing this line. And given
    Frydenberg appeared at the NPC, Chalmers should be afforded the right of reply.

  30. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/24/asian-australians-threatened-and-spat-on-in-racist-incidents-amid-coronavirus

    Asian-Australians have been physically harassed, threatened with weapons, spat at and told they can’t enter premises because “Asians need to stay indoors”, according to a community survey that tracks racist incidents related to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Launched on 2 April by community group the Asian Australian Alliance, the survey received 377 reports of racism in the two months to 2 June – an equivalent of 47 a week.

    A preliminary report released on Friday shared the experiences of people who had been attacked, threatened with a knife, and discriminated against at work and in housing.

    Women were overwhelmingly the most frequent victims (65% of respondents), 40% of racist incidents happened on a public street, and almost 60% of incidents involved physical or verbal harassment.

    One 23-year old woman from Perth told the survey that a group of men walked past her in the street and told her: “You’re fucking Asian, go eat bats and die alone. Don’t come to Australia.”

  31. lizzie

    It can’t be easy for a new mum learning to manage a household on nothing more than the $400K plus expenses her partner gets, and not working herself. She knows what its like for normal people, yes she does.

    Hopefully the kids from Barnaby’s family #1 don’t drop by too often. Perhaps they airbrushed them out of the photo?

  32. It seems to me that the ever-escalating cost of housing has absorbed most of the growth of the last few decades. So are today’s Australians (or at at January – pre Virus) twice as well off as those of 40-50 years ago? Some are, but the majority struggle to put a roof over their heads, at least during young adulthood. If rents and home prices weren’t so insane, maybe parents would have the choice to have one partner stay at home with the children, if one wanted to do so. It would also take the pressure off child care too. Perhaps more children would be born.

  33. You can guarantee that Unified Security weren’t at all curious about their sub-contractors until they had to be:

    Unified Security, which was not on the government’s panel of security providers, engaged five subcontractors to provide guards. The company, which ended up overseeing security at 13 hotels, said it required all sub-contractors to comply with industrial obligations and conduct audits to ensure correct payments to staff.

    “Unified was not aware of any breaches of any industrial obligations by Unified’s subcontractors. Had we been made aware of those matters we would have taken action including investigating the allegations and if true Unified would have taken steps to ensure that employees were being paid correctly or sought to terminate the contract,” the company said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/hotel-quarantine-security-done-on-the-cheap-via-subcontractors-says-guard-20200724-p55f1t.html

  34. Socrates

    I think I might have picked up an undertone of resentment towards the useless father. Plus a hint of a disorganised household. Perhaps I’m too harsh. 😉

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