Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  2. Leroy @ #1048 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 4:57 pm

    GG – no sign of a birth boom, but another birth related trend has been noticed.

    “This spring, as countries around the world told people to stay home to slow the spread of the coronavirus, doctors in neonatal intensive care units were noticing something strange: Premature births were falling, in some cases drastically.

    It started with doctors in Ireland and Denmark. Each team, unaware of the other’s work, crunched the numbers from its own region or country and found that during the lockdowns, premature births — especially the earliest, most dangerous cases — had plummeted. When they shared their findings, they heard similar anecdotal reports from other countries.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/health/coronavirus-premature-birth.html

    Cue, women should not be working while pregnant?

  4. On masks, there is an interesting and detailed multi-variate analysis of global per-capita mortality of COVID19 in 198 countries, up until May the 9th. Apparently unpublished/reviewed, or not submitted aside from news at the obscure to me Virginia Commonwealth Uni in the US, and open access on researchgate.

    Could be what otherwise not so busy ophthalmologists might get up to during a pandemic lockdown with mountains of actual real world data on COVID19 across the world to dig through.

    Nevertheless lots of data and perhaps because of the debate in the US, introduction or use of face masks is one the variables they investigate and find it is a statistically significant variable in per capita mortality rate, along with % aged >60, level of obesity, urbanisation, colder temperature countries, closing schools and public events, limiting international travel and govt economic support.

    Interestingly they find introduction of masks as a significant variable in per-capita mortality, but not testing rate or strict long lockdowns, nor contact tracing.

    All the data sources and discussion of various cultural rationale for early or late adoption of masks is discussed and referenced.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342655031_Association_of_country-wide_coronavirus_mortality_with_demographics_testing_lockdowns_and_public_wearing_of_masks_Update_July_2_2020

    In summary, older age of the population, urbanization, obesity, and longer duration of the outbreak in a country were independently associated with higher country-wide per-capita coronavirus mortality. International travel restrictions were associated with lower per-capita mortality. However, other containment measures, testing and tracing polices, and the amount of viral testing were not statistically significant predictors of country-wide coronavirus mortality, after controlling for other predictors. In contrast, societal norms and government policies supporting mask-wearing by the public were independently associated with lower per-capita mortality from COVID-19. The use of masks in public is an important and readily modifiable public health measure.

  5. Jim Chalmers made a statement of profound illiteracy today – he just reinforced the myth that the private sector’s savings are somehow a burden on taxpayers. Ged Kearney said some very sensible things today. In a rational world Ged Kearney would either be leader or Treasury spokesperson.

  6. GG – probably due to a range of factors, from reduced physical stress & less infections to reduced air pollution. They don’t know why yet, too early. I’m sure if everyone could take time off while pregnant it would help, but what are the chances of that?

  7. Is this Geds announcement of a tilt at the leadership …?
    She’ll never get a better chance at the top job.

    Penny is the new Amy.

  8. Oooooh! How they hate being accused of “cuts”!

    Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has denied today’s changes to jobkeeper and jobseeker can be classified as a cut, instead describing the changes as an “extension”.

  10. Leroy @ #1054 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:13 pm

    GG – probably due to a range of factors, from reduced physical stress & less infections to reduced air pollution. They don’t know why yet, too early. I’m sure if everyone could take time off while pregnant it would help, but what are the chances of that?

    Revert to a society that acknowledges differences rather than accentuates ideology.

  12. Nicholas @ #1051 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 5:12 pm

    Jim Chalmers made a statement of profound illiteracy today – he just reinforced the myth that the private sector’s savings are somehow a burden on taxpayers. Ged Kearney said some very sensible things today. In a rational world Ged Kearney would either be leader or Treasury spokesperson.

    Ged also has the political good sense to make a claim for the environment policy ground the Green currently enjoys. Plenty of primary votes on offer there I’d suggest.

  14. Have been reading up on job seeker. Today’s announcement may be seen as a major boon by some business owners.
    The return of mutual obligation and cancellation of payments if you refuse an offered job give them the main ingredients required to rip off workers.
    Given bosses are unable to correctly calculate pay rates and make sure job conditions are upheld will they act fairly with respect to new employees.

    I can see a number of situations were employees will take jobs well below their qualification level and I am not confident that they will not be coerced into higher level duties at the minimum rate. If you complain your out, if the union interferes it will be anti economy.

  15. south @ #1047 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 4:31 pm

    Albo should listen to Ged.
    That’s where the next election’s going to be fought.

    I don’t know if Ged is quite ready to be leader yet, but hell … at least she stands for something.

    I’d be willing to give her a go, since she could hardly be any worse than Neville “Peace For Our Time” Albanese.

  17. Greensborough Growler

    It is not ‘ideology’ that makes women work through ther pregnancy it is the need ‘these days’ for both partners to be working to keep a roof over their head.

  20. Snigger.

    Guardian
    But one avid reader has contacted the Guardian this afternoon, surprised to see the Parliament House website promoting tours for members of the public on its home page.

    While visitors will have to book their free ticket on the website so their details are registered, tour groups for up to 20 people can be booked every day through til 31 July.

    You can read the details here, but there doesn’t seem to be any fine print stopping a politician from booking a visit.

  21. Does Labor realise how uninspiring these non-positions are for voters? This is position evasion. Take a stand, raise the rate, have the arguments.

    “Labor’s leaders said the Opposition was likely to support the Government’s JobKeeper changes, but criticised the program for having paid some people more than they earned before the pandemic.
    Leader Anthony Albanese and Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers criticised the Government for failing to permanently lift unemployment benefits. But neither would say what rate they thought the new permanent JobSeeker rate should be”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/jobkeeper-jobseeker-extended-rates-cut-coronavirus-morrison/12475716

  23. Mark Duckett
    @MarkRDuckett
    ·
    5m
    Laming say ‘it’s a real challenge’ for business to find workers because welfare is too generous.

    They guy is a bullshit conveyor belt . ABC has him on as a regular guest because they value tabloid bullshit more than critical commentary.

  25. Laming say ‘it’s a real challenge’ for business to find workers because welfare is too generous.

    What alternative universe on the planet, Bizarro World, is this guy inhabiting!?!

  27. Laming say ‘it’s a real challenge’ for business to find workers because welfare is too generous.

    Jesus Christ all fucking mighty.

  30. GG
    Maybe it is more men at home doing housework, so less direct exposure of pregnant women to household chemicals.

    Or men cannot get out to see their mistresses so are taking more care of their pregnant wives.

    Both are as justifiable as the monumental ideological leap you made about pregnant women working.

  31. Puffytmd @ #1078 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:07 pm

    GG
    Maybe it is more men at home during housework, so less direct exposure of pregnant women to household chemicals.

    Or men cannot get out to see their mistresses so are taking more care of their pregnant wives.

    Both are as justifiable as the monumental ideological leap you made about pregnant women working.

    I said, “Cue”. This is where this goes as a debate whether it pleases you or not.

    Get your arguments running. Because I sense we’re going back to the future on this.

  35. GG

    How Liberal of you to say.
    So in your universe economic reality is such that both partners do not have to work . 😆

  37. Shellbell
    Forget about buying Mens Health magazine.
    Best workout for abs and stubborn belly fat is burpees.
    25 a day will get you ripped.

  38. poroti @ #1083 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:25 pm

    GG

    How Liberal of you to say.
    So in your universe economic reality is such that both partners do not have to work . 😆

    Seeing as you have made an open declaration that you will preference Labor last, you really are scratching at straws if you believe you’re not a Lib at the end of the day.

  41. Earlier reporting was accurate

    Nadia Dimattina
    @NDimattina
    ·
    1h
    Police have just confirmed a 25yr old woman who travelled from Glen Waverley to Orbost was issued a fine of $1652 for breaching the CHO’s directions. An Orbost Police officer is in self quarantine after coming in contact with the positive case.
    @9NewsGippsland

    @9NewsMelb
    #9News

  42. Lizzie, ‘Laming say ‘it’s a real challenge’ for business to find workers because welfare is too generous.’

    I saw a puff piece in TV the other day about a few businesses (in Townsville, I think) complaining they couldn’t get workers as ‘welfare’ was too high. I thought at the time, this is setting the scene for a reduction in Jobseekers/Jobkeeper.

  45. The ex pollies and Abbott fave Fiona Scott is on theDrum insisting that $40 is ok bc of all the extras available. Later she admitted that it cost $50 for transport to and fro to appear.
    Silly moo.

  46. PeeBee @ #1090 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:53 pm

    Lizzie, ‘Laming say ‘it’s a real challenge’ for business to find workers because welfare is too generous.’

    I saw a puff piece in TV the other day about a few businesses (in Townsville, I think) complaining they couldn’t get workers as ‘welfare’ was too high. I thought at the time, this is setting the scene for a reduction in Jobseekers/Jobkeeper.

    He’s appealing to his own Electorate where those sorts of views apparently resonate.

  48. Victoria @ #1090 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 6:53 pm

    Earlier reporting was accurate

    Nadia Dimattina
    @NDimattina
    ·
    1h
    Police have just confirmed a 25yr old woman who travelled from Glen Waverley to Orbost was issued a fine of $1652 for breaching the CHO’s directions. An Orbost Police officer is in self quarantine after coming in contact with the positive case.
    @9NewsGippsland

    @9NewsMelb
    #9News

    There was absolutely NOTHING Dan Andrews could do about that.

    There are just people out there who don’t give a flying fig.

  50. Where is the personal responsibility about social distancing and masks?
    Its ridiculous to blame the governments and authorities for every case.

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