Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Two areas that currently are run privately by a mix of organisations are Childcare and Aged care. These programs are publicly funded but have little government oversight.
    Both of these organisations have some very similar problems, poor staffing levels, poor pay rates and employee rights. The culture amongst those running these organisations is one of growth at all cost.

    It isn’t that the government is not putting significant money into the programs but that the organisations running them are focused on growing the business. The way they do this is undercut services of their current clientele to provide the funds to build more centres. It is how we have reached the rediculous situation where one of the major aged care providers is deemed too big to fail and therefore doesn’t even attempt to meet standards.

    It would be a major move to make but there are already systems in place that would allow the government to remove the shonks and take back control,under a public model.

    The outcome would be no increase in funding and a noticeable increase in quality. It is one of the reasons that I tell people that if you must look for care for the elderly or your kids look for a small community organisation. Unfortunately a lot of them have been taken over by big groups who initially offer to manage them and then cut staff to pay their fees.

  2. C@t

    This story was retweeted by a journo but I dont know if it has been confirmed.

    If it is true, it merely illustrates that despite all the measures in place, variables will occur that make it a little more difficult to get on top of the virus.

    Hence why the MSM and the political games are very unhelpful and actually sabotage progress in this space.

  3. 1 million unemployed, businesses are closing not because of dole bludgers, not because they don’t want to work, but because of lack of leadership!

    Oh, i think i see where that came from.
    I agree. My point was that any assistance package will need to be fair and be seen to be fair. It needs broad support, and if people working hard on wage that is on or below that assistance value for people not working at all… then those people will get miffed and not support it – regardless of the benefit the assistance package has to vulnerable people and the economy as a whole.

    The system has been unfair in the early stages due to the need to make it simple and get it out quick. People understood that.

    So I am just putting it out there, from someone who distrusted the idea of UBI (was going to be used by the right to drive down wages and remove public institutions), that perhaps in this time of pandemic and economic disturbance a UBI may be a more equitable system.

    Another thing I have been yacking about with some clients is the reflex to choose high energy but low human capital options in construction. A very simple example is kerbing. IMO, Councils choose heavily engineered Stormwater infrastructure in areas that dont need it. This uses a large amounts of concrete and steel (and often just kick the can down the hill). The alternative are more natural management that requires more maintenance. I believe this would be job positive and climate emission positive but engineering design consultancy and concrete company negative.

    And before you say engineering designers are jobs…. some of them have already gone offshore. More and more drafting is done offshore. Raingardens, sand/reedbeds, vegetated open drains can be designed within Councils or local consultants and cant be maintained from India.

  4. Victoria @ #1007 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 1:57 pm

    C@t

    This story was retweeted by a journo but I dont know if it has been confirmed.

    If it is true, it merely illustrates that despite all the measures in place, variables will occur that make it a little more difficult to get on top of the virus.

    Hence why the MSM and the political games are very unhelpful and actually sabotage progress in this space.

    It’s much worse to play political games with this virus than not. Yet people here, day after day tell us that’s exactly what Labor should be doing!

  5. C@t

    Yes. Simply hot air as far as I am concerned.

    Until this virus is sufficiently controlled by vaccine, treatment or it decides to disappear, things are not going to be normal for a very long time.
    I’m actually okay with Morrison and co attempting to chart a course at present
    Time will tell as to where it will all lead

  6. C@tmomma wrote:

    I was just suitably sceptical. I was right to be. The App has made 3/5 of bugger all difference cf manual Tracking and Tracking.

    And not because people refused to download it, but because it was full of bugs and incompatible with many older phones. You know, the sort that a lot of old people have. The people more at risk of catching COVID-19.

    Enjoying having your data hoovered up by the Liberal Party?

    The Liberal Party have not hoovered up my data. My name and phone number are freely available. Every time I use a credit card a record is kept. When I drive through town, or walk through the local Stockland Mall any number of CCTV cameras record my progress. The Highway Patrol checks my rego every time their automatic scanning cameras OCR my number plate. I’m on the Electoral Roll, accessible to anyone, and with special access given to political parties. Red Energy knows how much power I use. As do all the other utilities I employ, including Telstra, which knows every call I make or receive, and every internet connection I make. My email ISP knows who I’m sending and receiving emails to and from . The local council has the plans of my house.

    In short: the privacy horse has bolted, C@t.

    I can’t stress enough the thinness of infections here in Australia. It’s infected less than one-tenth of one percent of the population. Theres 99.96% to go. We’re a nation of coronavirus virgins.

    There is no “second wave”. There was hardly a first wave. We are minnows in the viral sea.

    For example, our number of infections over the six months since the first was recorded in January, is a fraction of just Florida’s daily infection number.

    You’ll be aware I’m no coronavirus denier. In fact I’m the opposite, if anything. I want to do everything I can possibly do to avoid infection. This includes the app, wearing a mask in enclosed public spaces, using ethanol handwash in the car after visiting the shops (and using it inside them, if it’s offered), social distancing and so on.

    On any day, because we have very low infection rates here on the Mid North Coast, the measures I employ to protect myself are, in the same way you say the app is useless, useless; useless because it’s unlikely – very unlikely indeed – that I’ll pass by or exchange droplets or aerosols with an infected person. Up here there is virtually no virus to protect myself against. It’s next to pointless worrying about it.

    But I take those precautions seriously and use them despite the low risk in my particular environment. I think it’s fair to say that, redneck wackos and (some particularly militant) anti-vaxxers aside, no-one deliberately gets infected with coronavirus. The point is: most of us take precautions because the virus will really take off if we don’t.

    It was and is a fact that 15 million downloads were needed to give the app a good chance of being effective in finding cases that manual tracking coukd not find. It got 40% of that: 6 million. Combine the paucity of downloads with the vanishingly small (relatively, at least) number of infections to trace, and it’s little wonder the app hasn’t augmented conventional tracing methods.

    It’s not that contacts have not been revealed by the app. My understanding is that they have. It’s more that no new contacts have been revealed. There is at least an element of in-the-field functionality working.

    I’m not worried about the Liberal Party having my data (even if it’s true that the company which coded the app broke the law by stealing my data, which I doubt… I think that’s paranoia). They can get it anyhow through relatively public records. I get regular begging letters from the Libs, anyway. I’m on their email list, because I like to know what they’re up to. I’m sensible enough to realise that the virus doesn’t give a damn about my political opinions. If it can infect me it will, whether I like the Libs or loathe them. Thinking about it, if the cost of protecting myself from infection via the app DID involve the Libs knowing my name and phone number, I’d STILL sign up.

    Hating Liberals is not worth dying for.

    The point is: IF the app doesn’t work then it was at least worth a try to see if it did. It cost me absolutely nothing by way of freedoms, money or trouble to find out.

  7. BB There is NO evidence that the ‘app’ works at all. The inventors of Bluetooth have stated categorically (in no uncertain manner) that the basic premise on which the app is supposed to work is false.

    The data produced by the phones that are, almost randomly, triggered is so unreliable in its form and content as to render the processing that data into ‘information’ an impossibility. False alarms are massively more likely than real potential infection situations, and the likelihood that such ‘real’ situations are missed is very high.

    Information is that which is useful in aiding sound decision making. The noise produced by the app is not, and never will be, information; just misleading, frustrating noise that will waste the time of those trying to make any sense of it. You are barking at the sky.

  8. The covid app is not going to tell anyone that they have been in contact with someone who has the corona virus , if that contact data has not been put into the app database

    The covid app will not save lives , but put more lives in danger

    Because people for some reason think the covid app is going to tell them magically that they been in contact with someone who is infected

  9. Victoria
    Yes privately run often by not for profits. They don’t make a profit they just rebadge the money.
    I know of a home taken over by a large religious provider. Within twelve months hours worked per day on sight had dropped by 25 percent. The number of RN hours had dropped by 75 percent. In that period they bought out another 3 homes from another smaller provider.
    Some religious providers have rebadged their aged care division because it was sent to be negatively impacting on the church.

  10. It is time for voters to hassle Gladys Berejiklian and Scott Morrison tell them that they are toast/finish if they do not lock down NSW

  11. Victoria
    I have consulted for both private and not for profit. Not for profit are the worst offenders.
    At one point the government offered a percentage levy on the fees that the governments pay related to nursing and personal care fees. The not for profits who had been yelling loudest for additional money would not take it up. To recieve the levy they had to show full audited accounts of the whole organisation. As the church’s use various subcontractors owned by them to facilitate siphoning money to the bigger organisation this would have shown the true extent of the rorts.
    The stupidest thing the government ever did was untie care funding from wages paid. It has been downhill ever since.

  12. Assantdj

    Yep. And now this pandemic has exposed the fault lines in this sector. I feel so sad for the residents themselves as well as the exploited workers.

  13. It is time for voters to hassle Gladys Berejiklian and Scott Morrison tell them that they are toast/finish if they do not lock down NSW

    Those two bounce with the high roller lobbyists and rely on Murdochs Ministry for Information being the only feed in the plebs jumping castle.

  14. Scott
    I think that NSW think they have a handle on the outbreak and they will contain it.
    Andrews discovered that large family groups especially those where the income came from insecure work had enabled the disease to spread undetected.
    If the NSW government or Morrison don’t put in place a hardship payment for those excluded from other forms of welfare then they open themselves up to the same problem. They should be learning from events in Victoria not putting their heads in the sand.

  15. According to this article, anything other than having a clear cut winner in the 2020 US election could result in mayhem.

    It is dumb politics by Trump. If Biden is ahead in the polls in the week leading up to the election, anti-Trump peeps still have a good reason to get out in droves.

    I hope he continues to threaten to dispute the election on every count he can find.

    And it wont work. It will just be a prolonged pathetic end to a disgraceful human entity.

  16. Assantdj

    Interestingly, an epidemiologist from UNSW did a podcast last week.
    She basically said that the large family clusters that caused the spread in Victoria is unique to Victoria.
    She said that family groups are not as socially well connected in NSW.
    So it may be less problematic in NSW.

    I dont know how she was able to reach this conclusion

  17. Victoria
    That is interesting and hard to explain.
    Whether you need the large family clusters is probably the Unknown. It is known that people in insecure work are least likely to volunteer to test and from little clusters big clusters grow.

  18. From The Guardian:

    We cut away from the Victorian press conference earlier because of the jobkeeper/jobseeker announcement, but I thought you would be interested in this comment from the chief health officer, Prof Brett Sutton.

    He said that while today’s figure of 374 new cases was not what he wanted to see, it’s not indicative of exponential growth – which is what would happen if the spread was uncontrolled.

    Certainly we are seeing a rollercoaster of numbers, to a degree, our anxieties rise and fall as the numbers do. There has been some levelling in the last four or five days. We know day-to-day changes can be substantial.

    Off the modelling of a couple of weeks ago, if we had been on an exponential curve – which is what happens with Covid-19 – we would have been thousands of cases at this point. And we are not, we are at 374. I’m not satisfied with that but it is better than 3,000.

  19. Assantdj

    Yes. It would have been good if she was able to illustrate this in concrete terms. But maybe they have data, we are not privy to

  20. GG

    Yes. Precisely.

    I missed todays presser. But hence my earlier comments.

    People still dont understand why the need for lockdown.
    Without it, we would have thousands of cases per day by now.

  21. And for those who didnt watch fourcorners last night. I recommend it. Inside look at one hospital in Italy at the height of the outbreak there. It is through the eyes of a doctor.
    Because I am familiar with the Italian language, it gave it a certain dimension for me

  22. lizzie,

    It seems our MSM is too busy creating fear, uncertainty and doubt in order to sell their product that they forget that balanced and informed reporting would serve them and the community better.

    We also have a few keyboard warriors on PB that are in love with their own self determined intellectual supremacy.

    Me, I tend to rely on the appointed experts and not the bollocks of the blusterers.

  23. Without lockdowns and restrictions, we could have gone as badly as the USA. Divide the USA’s numbers by 13 to get an indication of how Australia could have gone:

    Total cases ~300,000
    New cases per day ~ 4,500
    Deaths ~ 11,000

  24. Steve777

    Most of the USA at some point employed restrictions and some type of lockdown.
    The problem has been one of federal leadership in having a co ordinated effort.
    Of course it didnt help when Trump and co demanded and made threats for states to open up.
    We are seeing the results now of such actions.

  25. Assantdjsays: Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 2:57 pm

    Victoria
    That is interesting and hard to explain.
    Whether you need the large family clusters is probably the Unknown. It is known that people in insecure work are least likely to volunteer to test and from little clusters big clusters grow.

    *******************************************

    Just been talking to my SIL …… one of her niece’s went with a group of girls to a Melbourne venue to enjoy a night out on July 6th – now 14 of them have tested positive to COVID-19

  26. Victoria @ #1022 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    Assantdj

    Interestingly, an epidemiologist from UNSW did a podcast last week.
    She basically said that the large family clusters that caused the spread in Victoria is unique to Victoria.
    She said that family groups are not as socially well connected in NSW.
    So it may be less problematic in NSW.

    I dont know how she was able to reach this conclusion

    Victoria,

    Do you have a link or some other way I can track down this podcast? Thanks.

  27. For anyone addicted to news and pollies, here is an extended smorgasbord.

    PatriciaKarvelas
    @PatsKarvelas
    ·
    5m
    HUGE #afternoonbriefing starting at 4pm and extended through to 5:30pm today on
    @abcnews
    TV Television including
    @JoshFrydenberg

    @JacquiLambie
    also unions, business, panels, experts #auspol #COVID19Aus

  28. After the announcement today by Morrison two glaring issues remain on the table.

    Jobseeker needs to be raised permanently. The cut of / review date is now December. Not good enough for a economy where 13 people are unemployed for each vacancy and the situation is not going to improve by December. People should not be reduced to poverty levels at the flick of a switch on a particular day.

    Secondly, the government had the perfect opportunity today to target those casuals who been excluded completely from jobkeeper. The tightening of the programme will deliver the government billions in saved expenditure. This money should have been directed to casuals in aviation, higher education, hospitality and tourism etc etc who have been deliberately ignored by this government. The focus should have been on these forgotten workers. Huge opportunity lost.

    Let us see where labor goes with these issues over coming days.

  29. Avani Dias
    @AvaniDias
    ·
    1h
    A NSW Police watchdog report has found officers asked a young woman to remove her tampon while strip-searching her at Star City.

    A woman working at the Secret Garden Fest. has accused officers of asking her to pull her underpants down and bend over. No drugs were found. THREAD

  30. More than 1000 Victorians have been fined in less than two weeks for breaching coronavirus restrictions since the stage three lockdown was reimposed on metropolitan Melbourne.

    Another 73 people were caught breaching the rules in the past day, bringing the number to 1106 since 11.59pm on July 8 – at least $1.8 million worth of infringements.

  31. Ged Kearney
    @gedkearney
    ·
    4m
    All this talk from the govt about JobKeeper and JobSeeker with no mention of job creation. We will only get out of the this recession with a commitment to full employment. There’s plenty to kick off with – ACTU’s jobs plan and the Climate Council’s green jobs plan to start with!

  32. GG – no sign of a birth boom, but another birth related trend has been noticed.

    “This spring, as countries around the world told people to stay home to slow the spread of the coronavirus, doctors in neonatal intensive care units were noticing something strange: Premature births were falling, in some cases drastically.

    It started with doctors in Ireland and Denmark. Each team, unaware of the other’s work, crunched the numbers from its own region or country and found that during the lockdowns, premature births — especially the earliest, most dangerous cases — had plummeted. When they shared their findings, they heard similar anecdotal reports from other countries.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/19/health/coronavirus-premature-birth.html

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