Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 20 of 25
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  1. Simon Katich @ #942 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 12:10 pm

    I was just suitably sceptical.

    But we got an early mark out of it.

    And getting out from under the doona led to this, from the Mogo fb page:

    “In Mogo Village over the past three weeks, we have seen many thousands of visitors, and some stores blew off the social distancing guidelines provided by the government for mandatory social distancing. It is with these people in mind that we find ourselves in another state of insecurity.”

    …Further south, venues in the Victorian towns of Orbost, Marlo and Lakes Entrance were also closed after a person from Melbourne reportedly visited the region at the weekend and then subsequently tested positive.

    Other local businesses affected reportedly included: DG Clothing & Donchi Group, HOF Design, Marlo Hotel, Club Hotel Orbost, Orbost Club Inc, Beachside Takeaway in Marlo, Hair on Argyle, Your Wellness Co in Marlo, Snowy River Taxis and Snowy River Cafe Marlo.

    “Ever wondered how much impact the actions of a single person could have?” the Orbost Club Hotel wrote on Facebook.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coronavirus/2020/07/21/covid-regions-victoria-nsw/

    Irresponsible idiots and greedy business owners.

  2. Mundo, ‘Because discussing Scrooter’s ‘leadership’ is pointless.’

    The anti-Labor brigade think that bleating about Albo has a point?

  3. Headline on my phone, from Yahoo/finance:

    JobKeeper has been extended until March 2020

    For those not paying attention (most people), the news all sounds good.

  4. nath says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 12:20 pm
    Victoria says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 12:15 pm

    And the public preferred him over Shorten!

    ————–

    Not really when you look at it Labor won more seats than the liberal/LNP in the house of reps

  5. Douglas and Milko @ #958 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    Headline on my phone, from Yahoo/finance:

    JobKeeper has been extended until March 2020

    For those not paying attention (most people), the news all sounds good.

    The good news announcement is a free kick for Scotty for Marketing. However, he won’t be able to run away from the harsh realities he has just announced as well.

  6. Douglas,

    Every Morrison announcement sounds good at first blush.

    Let us see how it all unfolds in coming days after the ACTU, ACCOSS , labor and other stake holders dig through the entrails.

  7. Jobkeeper now below the poverty line – they will have to claim Jobseeker as well (jobkeeper is income under the jobseeker income test).

  8. Isobel Roe
    @isobelroe
    BREAKING: Ardent Leisure informs the ASX it has been charged over the Dreamworld ride fatalities in 2016.

    good!

  9. The problem with Jobkeeper according to the government is it had to be rushed, although in my opinion, it was still to slow, and the government didn’t have time to refine it. They have now had time to refine it and they still have not addressed the major problem which is all the casuals who missed out.

    The pragmatic part of my mind acknowledges that as a means of keeping workers engaged with their employer the priority would be those with a long standing or strong connection to their employer. What I don’t think the government understood, was the extent that the IPA have been successful in destabilising the workforce through casualization of workers and limiting their terms and conditions.

    They have now had time to refine the initiative and all they have done is lowered the rates. No redistribution, no help to those left out. Once the rate drops to $1200 per fortnight even a shop assistant would be needing a top up from their employer if working full time. The lower level for part timers equates to even lower hourly rates or a reduction in hours. So do the government think this will encourage employers to employ people or are they encouraging the employers to pay only minimum or lower levels of pay.

    The issue of all the casual workers who are ineligible for any assistance as a result of their visa status has not been addressed, even at a time when the outbreaks in Victoria have clearly shown this to be a major factor in the breakdown of our defence against Covid.

    The question is was the government unaware of the extent of casualization and insecure work, have they really bought the business councils spin that it is IR regulations that make business profits unsustainable, or, more likely that this is the golden opportunity to reset minimum wages and conditions under the new Covid norm.

    I am tending to think the latter

  10. PeeBee,
    Yes Albo’s leadership is important. And it’s lacking nature is significant. The pressure the opposition puts on the government has an effect on the day to day. If Labor doesn’t show up to the fight then the government can be lazy. And it is.

    I’m critical of Albo because he doesn’t last in any fight. He last about a day before going quiet.
    It’s pretty simple to develop a simple message, and just hammer it every day.

    Everyone put shit on Abbot for holding up his flimsy plan in 2012-13 but every photo had Abbot on message with a plan in his hand. The ALP doesn’t message like that. It should.

    You can talk all you want about media bias, but Albo isn’t writing articles for the paper, he isn’t on youtube weekly, he’s not on twitter every day. He’s not using the free media he could be.

    He doesn’t need to used that media for policy he can use it like Kristina K did with Jordon Shanks.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6toZb997UU
    He can just ask questions and talk about Jobs and those who lost jobs. And the future of jobs, and the future of work and the future of Labor and the Unions. And then have fun tearing strips of the gov.

    Albo has a lot of leading he can do. Part of that is being visible. Until that changes #AbsentAlbo stays

  11. Every Morrison announcement sounds good at first blush.

    Smoke, mirrors, distractions, confusions. Journos gush then put a slab over it never to be revisited; it might uncover their own failings.

    Irresponsible idiots and greedy business owners.

    Written and directed by the greedy idiot in chief. Lobbyist producers. Riders by donors. CGI, lighting, pyrotechnics, stunt doubles and sound engineering by media companies and their biased and incompetent journalists.

  12. They know the current scheme that is burning cash, their cash, taxpayers’ cash, to the tune of some $11bn a month cannot go on forever. Australians understand that. They also understand that the jobseeker at the elevated levels cannot go on forever.

    Oh really? Ask Bill Shorten how that went with negative gearing and franking credits at the last election.

  13. south @ #955 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 12:43 pm

    PeeBee,
    Yes Albo’s leadership is important. And it’s lacking nature is significant. The pressure the opposition puts on the government has an effect on the day to day. If Labor doesn’t show up to the fight then the government can be lazy. And it is.

    I’m critical of Albo because he doesn’t last in any fight. He last about a day before going quiet.
    It’s pretty simple to develop a simple message, and just hammer it every day.

    Everyone put shit on Abbot for holding up his flimsy plan in 2012-13 but every photo had Abbot on message with a plan in his hand. The ALP doesn’t message like that. It should.

    You can talk all you want about media bias, but Albo isn’t writing articles for the paper, he isn’t on youtube weekly, he’s not on twitter every day. He’s not using the free media he could be.

    He doesn’t need to used that media for policy he can use it like Kristina K did with Jordon Shanks.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6toZb997UU
    He can just ask questions and talk about Jobs and those who lost jobs. And the future of jobs, and the future of work and the future of Labor and the Unions. And then have fun tearing strips of the gov.

    Albo has a lot of leading he can do. Part of that is being visible. Until that changes #AbsentAlbo stays

    Mundo approves of this post.

  14. PeeBee @ #946 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 12:24 pm

    Mundo, ‘Because discussing Scrooter’s ‘leadership’ is pointless.’

    The anti-Labor brigade think that bleating about Albo has a point?

    The people talking about Albo are pro-Labor Peebrain.
    Why in all of god’s green goodness would an ‘anti-Labor brigade’ want Albo to lift his game?
    You need to think through your posts before hitting the submit button.

  15. What was the payment per fortnight pre pandemic?

    Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    1h
    Merry Christmas.
    Quote Tweet

    Samuel Clark
    @sclark_melbs
    · 1h
    JobSeeker will now be $810 a fortnight, down from $1100. Until the end of the year, @ScottMorrisonMP says it will be looked at again then #auspol

  16. Jobkeeper and Seeker needed attending to. I know hard working people on normal wages watching people doing nothing get a pay rise. It was blunt (and needed to be); unfortunately we have Morrison sharpening the knife.

    Everyone I know in my industries are nervous. Busy, but lacking any confidence in what will happen in 3-6 months time. If we and our clients knew there were big government spending programs coming and/or a UBI or similar it might be different.

    Big investment in infrastructure around renewable energy and transport and low emissions building retrofits etc would be a great start. Unfortunately, around here, the only ones doing well out of government spending are tree fellers and arborists and some builders who just jacked up their cut.

  17. What was the payment per fortnight pre pandemic?

    $550?
    Job seeker was/is a supplement. Was $550 (bringing it to $1100). Supplement to drop to $250.

  18. Pre Covid:

    Single, no children $565.70 JobSeeker Payment

    Single, with a dependent child or children $612 JobSeeker Payment

    Now:
    Single, no children $1,115.70 includes:
    $565.70 JobSeeker Payment
    $550 Coronavirus Supplement.

    Single, with a dependent child or children $1,162.00 includes:
    $612 JobSeeker Payment
    $550 Coronavirus Supplement.

    From September:

    Single, no children $815.70 includes:
    $565.70 JobSeeker Payment
    $250 Coronavirus Supplement.

    Single, with a dependent child or children $862.00 includes:
    $612 JobSeeker Payment
    $250 Coronavirus Supplement.

  19. Holdenhillbilly @ #969 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 1:10 pm

    Pre Covid:

    Single, no children $565.70 JobSeeker Payment

    Now:
    Single, no children $1,115.70 includes:
    $565.70 JobSeeker Payment
    $550 Coronavirus Supplement.

    From September:

    Single, no children $815.70 includes:
    $565.70 JobSeeker Payment
    $250 Coronavirus Supplement.

    Don’t forget for many people 50+ years old this is what they will have to live on until they get to Aged Pension age (mostly 67 now). Plus deal with the issues caused by mutual obligation and the harassment from Job Search agencies.

  20. This whole jobkeeper/seeker thing is overcomplicating matters.

    The government should simply:
    a) Support people. Those people can then figure out what to do with themselves.
    b) Support efforts to transfer/learn skills and find/create/adjust activities that are safe in the current environment.

    Why are all these levels of indirection necessary?

    Their current backwards-looking policy is essentially a direct intervention in the market that attempts to sustain the old ecosystem, favouring “business as usual”. So much for the government being solution “agnostic” :-P.

  21. I think not because some people were receiving more on JobKeeper than they were earning before.

    JobSeeker coronavirus supplement cut
    The JobSeeker payment replaced the former Newstart unemployment payment when coronavirus struck.

    The Government effectively doubled the old Newstart rate, applying a $550 coronavirus supplement.

    The revised JobSeeker program will allow recipients to earn $300 a fortnight before facing a reduction in their Government payment.

    The program will be reviewed again before December and the Prime Minister said he expected a coronavirus supplement was likely to be continued into 2021.

    People on JobSeeker will be required to apply for more jobs than required earlier in the pandemic and failure to take a job means people risk losing the payment.

    “So, if there is a job to be taken and a job that is being offered, then it is an obligation, a mutual obligation, for those who are on JobSeeker to take those jobs where they’re on offer,” Mr Morrison said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/jobkeeper-jobseeker-extended-rates-cut-coronavirus-morrison/12475716

  22. laughtong

    Yes. Agreed.
    For those older who are at least 10 or more years away from being eligible for pension or a matured super policy, it isnt very much to live on at all.

  23. South
    There are a few problems with calling on the government to simply employ more public servants. What exacetly are they going to do and the public service has a rigid structure so people would need to met the section criteria which is based around qualifications and experience.

  24. I’m quite fed up with the notion that this lockdown in Melbourne and greater Melbourne is unnecessary.

    If this had not occurred. We would not be dealing with averages of 300 per day, but thousands.
    And God knows how many people would be in hospital at any given time.
    Not forgetting how many front line workers would also be out of action due to either exposure to virus or a close contact.
    People are just not getting it.

  25. Actually its 300 per fortnight for job seeker

    Merit there. I reckon they could have upped that. It is, like the jobseeker payment, taxable after all and keeping tax flowing into the coffers will have treasury smiling.

    Again, it could lead to a situation where someone on jobseeker with supplement, earning $300/fortnight, will be on more than someone working for every dollar.

    It all starts to make the UBI (which I have never supported) more…. supportable.

  26. Dan Andrews
    @DanielAndrewsMP
    ·
    5h
    Nurses and doctors wear masks when they’re treating you.

    So I don’t think it’s too much to wear one when you’re at the supermarket or on the street.

    If it helps to prevent you from ending up in hospital, or stops someone else from getting sick – that’s worth it.

  27. GG
    The rate of the Jobkeeper payment for part timers is in excess of the income limit for Jobseeker. The choice people will have to make is take the lower Jobkeeper amount and hope your employer gives you extra hours and pay until you have a living wage. Alternatively you can stop working, I don’t know if you still have to meet a mandated period of unemployment to get benefits. You will be better off initially but if the Jobseeker supplement again decreases at Christmas you will be looking for work or living in poverty.

    For people working for employers who do not qualify for Jobkeeper then you can get Jobseeker and work for a period equal to $300 before losing your benefits.

  28. I haven’t read all comments yet but it’s worth pointing out a lot of casuals ans young people have multiple casual jobs, only one of which they could apply for Jobkeeper for meaning many would be being “overpaid” for their one jib but potentially underpaid overall compared to pre pandemic. So if the rules change to stringently these people would be caught out

  29. People are just not getting it.

    They have Newscorp collar and leads. Sucking on King Murdochs Love Potion Number 9.

  30. Mexicanbeemer,
    The public service could employ more people. It’s actually a pretty lean beast.

    But just for fun.
    Been to Canberra lately?
    Ask a public servant if they know a consultant. When they say yes, ask if that person’s ‘consulting’ could be done by someone in the APS. They’ll say yes of course, it’s only the work of a smart EL1.
    The APS is hollow because the use of contractor worker is a essentially industry welfare targeted at companies like PWC. The government could save money and build capability by in sourcing.

    I also agree that the APS isn’t so Agile, but that’s very much how it’s setup to be a model employer. You could create agencies with different employment standards and try and encourage a performance culture. There are depts out there the do have that.

  31. Simon Katich

    1 million unemployed, businesses are closing not because of dole bludgers, not because they don’t want to work, but because of lack of leadership!

  32. Bugler @ #992 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 1:31 pm

    I haven’t read all comments yet but it’s worth pointing out a lot of casuals ans young people have multiple casual jobs, only one of which they could apply for Jobkeeper for meaning many would be being “overpaid” for their one jib but potentially underpaid overall compared to pre pandemic. So if the rules change to stringently these people would be caught out

    Thanks for that heads up, Bugler. 🙂

  33. I haven’t read all comments yet but it’s worth pointing out a lot of casuals ans young people have multiple casual jobs

    And many young people move around casual jobs. A lot were caught out not qualifying at all.

  34. 1 million unemployed, businesses are closing not because of dole bludgers, not because they don’t want to work, but because of lack of leadership!

    Yes. I said as much didnt I? That the economy, businesses, business clients etc all need confidence.. certainty and atm that comes from leadership. Investment. And a cleverer, fairer assistance package.

  35. Jon Kaila
    @jonkaila
    ·
    2h
    Bauer Media Australia has announced the closure of eight titles, Harper’s BAZAAR Australia, ELLE Australia, InStyle, Men’s Health Australia, Women’s Health Australia, Good Health, NW and OK! Australia, due to the ongoing impact of COVID-19. Via @TelumMedia

  36. Mexican beemer
    Hospitals could go back to employing their own cleaners and security.
    Police levels could be ramped up to stop the reliance on security guards.
    Schools and Tafe’s could also employ additional support staff.
    Call centres for government departments could come back to the public sector along with increases to the number of employees in Services Australia
    All the consultancy work currently being outsourced in everything from IT to tax auditing could again be done by public servants.

    Those are just the ones that Spring instantly to mind. If we had a better depth of knowledge in the public service maybe the constant stuff ups with every program could be ameliorated.
    It won’t happen because the public service serves the public not the Liberal party profit for mates agenda.

  37. South
    Good because i wasn’t sure if you knew about how the public service is structured. The government should cut back on its use of the big four because they offer little value because most of what they recommend could easily come from within a department and they often do simply recycle departmental ideas at great expense to the government.

  38. south @ #987 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 1:33 pm

    Mexicanbeemer,
    The public service could employ more people. It’s actually a pretty lean beast.

    But just for fun.
    Been to Canberra lately?
    Ask a public servant if they know a consultant. When they say yes, ask if that person’s ‘consulting’ could be done by someone in the APS. They’ll say yes of course, it’s only the work of a smart EL1.
    The APS is hollow because the use of contractor worker is a essentially industry welfare targeted at companies like PWC. The government could save money and build capability by in sourcing.

    I also agree that the APS isn’t so Agile, but that’s very much how it’s setup to be a model employer. You could create agencies with different employment standards and try and encourage a performance culture. There are depts out there the do have that.

    Many of those consultants know very little of the ‘business’ unless they have recently been retrenched from that Department.
    I was in the old central library for CSIRO at the time that all the services in that building were McKinseyed. They provided a very glossed over presentation to one of the most highly educated workplaces in the country. Did not go over well and caused imense issues at all levels of staffing

  39. Spray

    That has been the most frustrating aspect of the reporting and blame game of this pandemic.
    It is not absolute. It is not black or white

    As mentioned earlier. Although not sure how accurate it is. Woman from Melbourne who had tested positive decided to visit Orbost anyway.
    If true, she not only failed to stay in isolation for 14 days, but left her lockdown area.

  40. Victoria @ #1004 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 1:51 pm

    Spray

    That has been the most frustrating aspect of the reporting and blame game of this pandemic.
    It is not absolute. It is not black or white

    As mentioned earlier. Although not sure how accurate it is. Woman from Melbourne who had tested positive decided to visit Orbost anyway.
    If true, she not only failed to stay in isolation for 14 days, but left her lockdown.

    What was she thinking!?! Was she bored with the streets of her suburb? 🙄

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