After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.
Robert of the Holts
☘️
@rhholt
·
1m
Replying to
@atrupar
Oregon is suing the Federal Govt. for violating its citizens’ civil rights.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/18/portland-oreland-ag-lawsuit/
PORTLAND, Ore. — The Oregon attorney general filed a lawsuit late Friday night alleging that the federal government had violated Oregonians’ civil rights by seizing and detaining them without probable cause during protests against police brutality in the past week.
The legal action comes after days of intensifying clashes between the Trump administration and Portland officials, who have accused federal agencies of heavy-handed tactics that inflame unrest and threaten citizens.
Lars Von Trier @ #48 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:22 pm
In your wet dreams, LvT.
I wonder if the voters are mistaking a Coalition Government – a Labor Government due to free money?
LVT
The Liberals are fucking hypocrites.They were only pushed into wage subsidies. One week they said it wasnt going to happen and the next they rolled over squealing and spouting socialist handouts.
Comments at the end of Benson’s article are, well,…. interesting
Quite an amazing comment string- almost as if Simon wrote them himself. No! Perish the thought.
I’d be fascinated to see the state breakdowns of Newspoll. I’d imagine, when all was said and done that Labor took a hit in Victoria.
So C@t, what happens if ScoMo just keeps spending money on people ? Is anybody going to hold it against him?
And, as I have zero desire to engage in Edwina’s fol de rols, I’m off to do some serious reading.
The Newspoll numbers are not exceptional in any way. They reflect a continued modest rally-to-the-flag impulse during a phase where the economy is reeling because of a public health emergency. If anything, they suggest Labor’s Primary support is relatively steady….itself a good result given the shocks to which the community has been subjected. The pandemic has not changed the political culture in Australia. Why would it?
If the government is seen to be losing control; if the economic stress becomes more intense; if these appear to be attributable to the acts of the LNP, then we should expect the polling to shift around in Labor’s favour. But until then, default settings will apply.
Sorry, one last thing. Watch this lady make a fantastic mask out of a sock!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284670646694232064
LVT
And if Shorten had been PM all you would have been on about is how much Shorten was wasting giving extra money to dole bludgers and how the budget would be in the red forever. Also calling for him to walk like the stupid MSM wants Andrews to do.
NonSequitur is exactly right. So much handwringing by Bludgers tonight over what is a very minor and within-the-MoE opinion poll change. It won’t mean much at all within a few weeks.
The Commonwealth has all the financial instruments required to prevent a depression; to restore full employment. The question is whether it will use them or not.
Very wisely, Labor has refrained from trying to politicise the government response to the pandemic. Had it done so, Labor’s PV would likely have taken a battering.
NonSequitur
I’m inclined to agree, NonSequitur.
Benson has pumped them up into a story based on very little change. We will have to wait to see how they got 53:47 – I presume it was via an allocation of preferences, but based on what ?..I will be interested to see.
I’m sure William will do a breakdown in due course.
I look forward to it.
A delayed bounced because this is where the polls should have been a few weeks ago.
“NonSequitursays:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:30 pm
The Newspoll numbers are not exceptional in any way. They reflect a continued modest rally-to-the-flag impulse during a phase where the economy is reeling because of a public health emergency. ”
+1
Look at the bump the state governments have had. Morison hasn’t got much goodwill to play with when the economy goes bad.
If it doesn’t go bad, then frankly he’ll deserve another term.
The sight of supporters of a political party stuck in the vicinity of ten percent for the last decade really is something else. The Greens; going nowhere and less relevant than ever.
Interesting ALP gets some traction with E_M win then next News poll slaps them down. Given Newspolls outrageous failure at the last election I wonder if it just a corrupted conservative tool like just about everthing else in the media ..
I like how when polls show Labor losing support the conclusion is that had Labor done anything other than what they did they’d have lost even more support. Therefore losing support is lauded as wise, and Labor cannot do wrong.
Scotland is now going for Covid elimination.
“ Leading Scottish scientists have backed the nation’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, over her handling of Covid-19 – amid suggestions that contrasting government responses in London and Holyrood may be helping the cause of Scottish independence.
The SNP government’s drive to achieve “total elimination” of the coronavirus differs from England’s bid merely to suppress its spread.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/19/plaudits-for-nicola-sturgeon-fuel-talk-of-scottish-independence-drive
You can’t tell some people a r, why change when things are going so well?
I would say the Labor PV is about 33%.
Given KK got the NSW PV down to 25% in 2011 you would have to say Labor can still lose 8% of its PV if it doesn’t change course.
Even worse for Labor if 2019 is its high water mark in Victoria.
Frankly, these numbers could be explained by something as simple as a bit of anti Labor backlash in Victoria because of the current situation with the virus there.
NonSequitur,
Your wrong.
Labor should be talking about it’s record on the GFC and very publicly suggesting stimulus solutions like a Green New Deal for all the construction workers who are going to be going broke over the next 6 months.
I was walking my dog today talking with my wife about buying a new car. We want to go electric but the charting networks not there yet. What a great thing to get built during a downturn!
If labor were willing to engage in more politics it could work on a loop like this.
1. Honestly suggests good solutions, ie Green New Deal.
2. Wait for government to either reject it on partisan grounds or implement a shit version.
3. Attack the government for thier choice in step 2.
4. Repeat
With charging stations. It’d be like the NBN, but the coalition wouldn’t be able to roll it out fast enough, thus there’d be an opening for politics.
I’d love to know how things are going inside the shadow cabinet. I wonder what they are thinking at the moment. They faced something so similar and yet coped so much shit for the GFC yet Absent Albo is letting Scotty off the hook because….why?
a r says:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:50 pm
I like how when polls show Labor losing support the conclusion is that had Labor done anything other than what they did they’d have lost even more support. Therefore losing support is lauded as wise, and Labor cannot do wrong.
This is a misconstruction. The Labor-hostile parties have been attracting 2/3 primary votes certainly since the last election. Nothing has occurred that could be thought likely to change this. Australian political culture is relatively stable, and when it does change records shifts over intervals of years rather than weeks or months.
We are living through a remarkable event – an event that is unique in our lives. Even so, it has yet to change the political culture. Such a change might occur. The pandemic has a long way to run yet. But so far it has caused very little change. The Newspoll numbers are a measure of this.
south….Labor will never become a sales agent for anything branded ‘Green’. This will not happen. Never. The Greens are a Labor opponent. Labor will no more advocate Greenware than Blueware.
NonSequitursays:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 11:02 pm
“Labor will never become a sales agent for anything branded ‘Green’. ”
This is not actually the case.
ALP jumps on any trending Greens initiative and claims it as their own to make up for their lack of inspiration.
Well I happen to think 53:47 is pretty bad for Labor. It would be the worse result since 2014.
Maybe it is Dan Andrews related, including people from other States who are pissed off. But you have to start wondering about Albo.
ICANCU says:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 11:11 pm
NonSequitursays:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 11:02 pm
“Labor will never become a sales agent for anything branded ‘Green’. ”
This is not actually the case.
ALP jumps on any trending Greens initiative and claims it as their own to make up for their lack of inspiration.
In their dreams the Greens like to imagine this to be true. In real life no-one owns ideas. There is no IP in public policy. What Labor will not do is market Greenware….promote the Green brand. The Greens justify their existence by claiming they will influence Labor. It’s very much in Labor’s interest to make sure this does not happen.
The Newspoll numbers are consistent with Kevin Bonham’s summary of Essential polling data, which suggests the LNP has experienced a significant improvement in their imputed 2PP vote since the onset of the pandemic. KB’s charts suggest the LNP might have achieved as much as 55% 2PP support. Really….why would anyone expect anything else???? We face a grave crisis. Voters will really hope the government-of-the-day can handle it. Morrison has been highly visible and focused on the issues…on the public health as well as the economic and social impacts, and on managing the responses. He will get credit for this, just as State Premiers have been rewarded in their polling.
south @ #74 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:55 pm
That “but” should really be an “and yet again”.
Don’t forget, the Liberal Party stated that the “Multi-Technology Mix” bastardization of the NBN would be completed by 2016. It’s July 2020 now and still not done.
NonSequitur,
It’s not about the color it’s the content that matters.
I’m hoping that labor are just waiting for the jobless figures to explode and then make a pouncing comeback but I’m not holding my breath. Even when they had a list of corruption with sports rorts they couldn’t land a punch. No ministers resigned. sigh.
Absent Albo not leading Labor. Morrison is default.
That’s the original on water matters monster as PM for another term.
a r says:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 11:27 pm
south @ #74 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:55 pm
It’d be like the NBN, but the coalition wouldn’t be able to roll it out fast enough
That “but” should really be an “and yet again”.
Don’t forget, the Liberal Party stated that the “Multi-Technology Mix” bastardization of the NBN would be completed by 2016. It’s July 2020 now and still not done.
Voters have very low expectancy in relation to the NBN. It’s gadgetry that is characterised by slogans and abbreviations and concepts that mean almost nothing to most people. It belongs in the ‘don’t really know/don’t really care’ box for all but a small minority of voters. Voters also know it’s been highly contested/politicised and therefore discount nearly all claims made for or against the NBN and the policies that relate to it.
south says:
Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 11:37 pm
NonSequitur,
It’s not about the color it’s the content that matters.
I’m hoping that labor are just waiting for the jobless figures to explode and then make a pouncing comeback but I’m not holding my breath. Even when they had a list of corruption with sports rorts they couldn’t land a punch. No ministers resigned. sigh.
Bridget McKenzie resigned.
Take heart, south. Labor will not promote, advertise, sell, endorse, distribute or promulgate ideas that are branded ‘Green’.
The new ABC News/Washington Post poll is the latest to show former Vice President Joe Biden on a roll.
He leads President Donald Trump 55% to 40% among registered voters. (It’s a slightly tighter 54% to 44% among likely voters). The poll comes on top of other surveys last week from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Quinnipiac University giving Biden a double-digit advantage.
Biden’s advantage in the polls is most evident in the suburbs, where he is earning a historic amount of support for a Democrat.
Biden is up by a 52% to 43% margin among suburban voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll.
View 2020 presidential election polling
Other polls in the last month show Biden doing even better among suburban voters. The latest Quinnipiac University poll has Biden ahead by a 56% to 34% margin with suburbanites. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has Biden beating Trump 60% to 35% among suburban voters. Fox News has Biden with a similar 55% to 33% lead.
Our early June CNN poll had Biden with a 14-point lead in the suburbs.
In the average of all the polls, Biden’s ahead by nearly 20 points with suburban voters. This is a historic margin, if it holds.
The fact that Biden is doing so well in the suburbs shouldn’t be a surprise. The suburbs are a bellwether vote of sorts in our current political environment. That is, the suburban vote mirrors the national vote closer than the urban or rural vote.
Despite the urging of the pop-left and the crazy right….Biden is miles ahead in the places that will determine the US election.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/19/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-suburban-voters-polling/index.html
Trump is finished. The end cant come soon enough.
And we are stuck with fucking Trump junior.
NonSequitur @ #83 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 11:39 pm
That could all well be true.
But also, Australia now ranks 62nd in the world for broadband speeds. Three years ago we were 43rd. New Zealand is (relatively speaking) killing it at 21st. We spent $51 billion (and counting) for that result.
Those are facts, not jargon, technical abstractions, or political hyperbole. A savvy operator should have been able to leverage them.
a r says:
Monday, July 20, 2020 at 12:51 am
NonSequitur @ #83 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 11:39 pm
It’s gadgetry that is characterised by slogans and abbreviations and concepts that mean almost nothing to most people. It belongs in the ‘don’t really know/don’t really care’ box for all but a small minority of voters. Voters also know it’s been highly contested/politicised and therefore discount nearly all claims made for or against the NBN and the policies that relate to it.
That could all well be true.
But also, Australia now ranks 62nd in the world for broadband speeds. Three years ago we were 43rd. New Zealand is (relatively speaking) killing it at 21st. We spent $51 billion (and counting) for that result.
Those are facts, not jargon, technical abstractions, or political hyperbole. A savvy operator should have been able to leverage them.
It’s eye-glazing stuff. Almost no-one can comprehend what $51 billion means. No-one cares about relative internet speeds. This means next to nothing to most voters, even if they believe them…which they most likely do not. The telecoms/internet space is crowded with scams, rubbish deals, false discounts, ‘free’ stuff that’s not free at all, endless unsolicited marketing calls, junk mail, auto dial-up phishing and other nonsense. This is the actual experience of most punters. Voters flee. Understandably, they do not want to hear the arguments.
NonSequitur,
Re: NBN
It should have been framed as jobs, in construction and future jobs and Services in IT.
Where’s labor talking about the 2nd rate NBN causing remote working to be hard.
Where’s labor talking about the 2nd rate NBN causing people to risk infection having to go back to the office before necessary.
Absent Albo. I think he’s good at surviving, like the RGR years. But that’s not leading.
Most people can appraise the meaning of small numbers…. …$5…..$50….$500….$50,000….$5 million….These are meaningful magnitudes…
But $500 million…$5 billion….$50 billion….these mean nothing specific to most people. They are just big numbers….they could be trillions for all the difference it would make. The dollar value assignable to the Australian economy exceeds $2 trillion. This is Big….but it’s not specifically comprehensible in the sense of being ‘comparable’ to objects and/or values found in daily experience.
The NBN may well have cost $50 billion. So what? Is that one submarine or 10? Is it anything more than an abstraction or a computation?
south says:
Monday, July 20, 2020 at 1:16 am
NonSequitur,
Re: NBN
It should have been framed as jobs, in construction and future jobs and Services in IT.
Where’s labor talking about the 2nd rate NBN causing remote working to be hard.
Where’s labor talking about the 2nd rate NBN causing people to risk infection having to go back to the office before necessary.
Absent Albo. I think he’s good at surviving, like the RGR years. But that’s not leading.
Bollocks. Labor have pitched on the NBN. No-one gives a rats. Even the partisan fail to notice. There would not be 1 voter in 50 who would rate it as a front-of-mind important issue.
Stuck with shit second rate internet to go with the second rate government.
60th in the world for internet speeds. I think the punters just want us to be shit at everything nowadays. They’re certainly voting for it.
If we keep going as backwards as we are, I will meet myself coming the other way.
steve davis says:
Monday, July 20, 2020 at 1:31 am
Stuck with shit second rate internet to go with the second rate government.
Yes. The dysfunction that characterises centre-left politics in this country means the government will not change. The anti-Labor voices attract 2/3 primary votes….as tabulated by Newspoll this very week; as published tonight; as counted at the last election. The Labor-hostile forces will do their utmost to keep Labor from winning. This is the long and the short of Australian political culture and the balance of political expression.
I think Australian politics would be very well served by the abolition of preferential voting and a return to First Past the Post ballots.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/07/19/newspoll-53-47-coalition-2/comment-page-2/#comment-3449103
First past the post?
That would hurt the ALP and would have done so at just about every election since about 1980. The days of the DLP causing the Coalition to benefit from preferences (and before that the lack of significant minor parties other than the Coalition constituent Country Party doing the same) are long gone.
Voters also like the choice available through preferencing.
TomF&TB
First past the post would probably effect both major parties in equal measure with neither side gaining a clear advantage because in most cases the party leading on the primary usually goes on to win the TPP.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/07/19/newspoll-53-47-coalition-2/comment-page-2/#comment-3449108
While in most seats where the primary vote leader wins, the in seats where the candidate with the second most primary votes wins that is more often than not are more often won by the ALP than the Coalition and there have also been Green victories this way. At least one Green has also won from third most primary votes twice (the first time taking it off a Liberal).