Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. phoenixRED @ #896 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:18 am

    Bill Kristol@BillKristol

    51 years ago today we landed on the moon. Now we can’t produce enough swabs and lab equipment to test people quickly and reliably for the coronavirus so we can safely reopen our schools.

    Yes, I feel the same disbelief. We are a far less capable, adaptable and compassionate society than we were 50 years ago.

  2. phoenixRED

    Yeah and Billy and his dad were big contributors to the US’s current position. I bet he was too modest to take the credit he deserves in the article 🙂

  3. Danama,

    Yeah i know right!

    But seriously I am well aware the Government doesn’t create jobs, Thought truthfully the public service could be bigger.

    however, labor could easily just attack on those lines and everyone would eat it up. Yes they’d be vulnerable in the future if they ever gained office again but that’d be a pleasant change.

  4. Snap back.

    Morrison said the $1,500 per fortnight jobkeeper payment will be reduced to $1,200 a fortnight for full-time workers from the end of September, and $750 per fortnight for people working less than 20 hours a week.

    That full time payment will be revised down again for the March quarter of 2021 to $1,000 per fortnight, and $650 for part-time workers.

    Eligibility for the jobkeeper payment past 28 September, when the current scheme expires, will be based on whether businesses have shown a 30% reduction in turnover across the past two quarters, and into the next quarter.

    Previously, it was a prospective test — businesses who expected to see a 30% reduction.

  5. If budgetary restraint was important they why didn’t Albo say the FACT that Centerlink and social payments + the cost of the ABC cost the government the same money as Neg gearing.

    Hmm, maybe because for the last two federal elections the electorate said to Labor, who had a position to alter Negaive Gearing, ‘Screw you! And the horse you rode into town on!’

    Idealism is nice, south, but realism serves you better.

  6. NSW has 13 new cases, one in quarantine and others related to know outbreaks. It seems to be steady as she goes. It’s been hovering around 15 new cases a day for a while, with a small upward trend.

    Victoria – average 295 per day for the last 7 days, jumping about either side of this average. Can we hope that it has plateaued?

  7. In today’s conversation email

    Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National University

    The Morrison government on Monday released a long-awaited interim review into Australia’s federal environment law. The ten-year review found Australia’s natural environment is declining and under increasing threat. The current environmental trajectory is “unsustainable” and the law “ineffective”.

    The report, by businessman Graeme Samuel, called for fundamental reform of the law, know as the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act. The Act, Samuel says:

    […] does not enable the Commonwealth to play its role in protecting and conserving environmental matters that are important for the nation. It is not fit to address current or future environmental challenges.

    Samuel confirmed the health of Australia’s environment is in dire straits, and proposes many good ways to address this.

    Worryingly though, Environment Minister Sussan Ley immediately seized on proposed reforms that seem to suit her government’s agenda – notably, streamlining the environmental approvals process – and will start working towards them. This is before the review has been finalised, and before public comment on the draft has been received.

    This rushed response is very concerning. I was a federal environment official for 13 years, and from 2007 to 2012 was responsible for administering and reforming the Act. I know the huge undertaking involved in reform of the scale Samuel suggests. The stakes are far too high to risk squandering this once-a-decade reform opportunity for quick wins.

    And firefox posts.

    Firefox says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 9:57 am

    “Environment! What environment? There won’t be any left!”

    ***

    Not if the environmental vandals and Adani apologists from Labor and the Coalition have their way, that’s for sure.

    Is it any wonder that anybody that cares about the environment treats the Greens with contempt. They don’t care, they don’t want results they just want a anti Labor snark, for what?

  8. Bluebottle @ #909 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:31 am

    Snap back.

    Morrison said the $1,500 per fortnight jobkeeper payment will be reduced to $1,200 a fortnight for full-time workers from the end of September, and $750 per fortnight for people working less than 20 hours a week.

    That full time payment will be revised down again for the March quarter of 2021 to $1,000 per fortnight, and $650 for part-time workers.

    $500 a week is not going to pay the bills and a mortgage.

  9. Will casuals working more than 20 hours a week now be classed as a full time worker ? Wonder how the ACTU will respond to that.

    Will monies saved by these changes now be directed towards the one million plus casuals excluded from jobkeeper ?

  10. lizzie @ #899 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:21 am

    Bloody cheek. Morrison reminding journos to stick with social distancing arrangements, when he was filmed walking with Josh.

    James 1:27 ESV
    Religion that is pure and undefiled before God, the Father, is this: to visit orphans and widows in their affliction, and to keep oneself unstained from the world.

    Send now for detailed plans for the latest model “Personal Protection Force Field.” Not available from stores.
    Contact Mr. William C/ Poll Bludgers. Prices negotiable.

  11. Mutual obligation requirements for people on jobseeker will be restarted on 4 August, meaning people will need to undertake four job searches a month.

  12. C@tmomma,

    If you want to talk about realism, then why isn’t there a labor member getting into the media everyday to attack the governemnt on it’s poor performance.

    Realistically it works. a la Abbot!

    Climate change is real and it’s pretty scary in fact. Albo could get up and talk about Climate futures and scare the shit out of people, Scaring people really works.
    55C in Parramatta during summer will happen in about 15 years.

    He could get up and talk about jobs, and what happens to 55 year old men who loose their jobs. That’s scary and real. And when it happens there’s going to be a lot of suicides and broken hearts.

    I very much live in the real world and I can tell you Absent Albo isn’t do enough at all to earn his very generous salary.

  13. C@tmomma @ #913 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:38 am

    Holdenhillbilly @ #915 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:35 am

    Jobseeker – supplement reduced to $250 (currently $550 per fortnight)

    Because? What has changed? We’re still in the midst of the COVID-19-induced unemployment epidemic.

    Blow. The supplement had been a big help to my 63 year old widowed friend in Tassie. However the increase in income earnt may help her as she had a small income stream at one point. Of course we have to wait to 67 for the Aged Pension – the first full birth year that does.

  14. Currently 13 jobseeker recipients for every job vacancy. Expect this to increase as lockdowns in Victoria and potential changes in NSW start to flow through.

  15. Alan Jones to Mark Latham:
    Ill just leave you with one FACT, When Kevin Rudd wanted to raise to debt ceiling when he was PM, to 75 billion dollars, well they went to town the Coalition, went to town, the debt now is heading towards 1 trillion.
    Mark Latham to Alan Jones: Yeah in Rudds day it was a national Crisis at 75 billion, now its 1000 billion and you will probably need to double that by the time they stop the spending.
    Alan Jones to Mark Latham:”Naughty giggle”
    I remember Jones had hissyfits about Rudd spending 75 Billion on his radio program back when Labor was in, Why isnt he maintaining the rage now with the Coalition? even though their debt is 15 times the size? He can only manage a giggle?
    https://www.facebook.com/SkyNewsAustralia/videos/704023760444086/?t=337

  16. I wonder what recipients of jobseeker and job keeper in the drought, bushfire, covid ravaged electorate of Eden Monaro will think about todays anoouncement ?

  17. Some comments from vic CHO

    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    ·
    20m
    CHO Sutton: “We have seen some stabilising.. in some postcodes.. and we have seen a drop off in public housing towers.. ”
    Heidi Murphy Retweeted
    Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    ·
    22m
    Vic Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton: ‘Masks are to coronavirus what speed limits are to our road toll.’ #COVID19Vic
    @abcnews

  18. doyley says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 11:50 am
    I wonder what recipients of jobseeker and job keepermin the drought, bushfire, covid ravaged electorate of Eden Monaro will think about todays anoouncement ?


    They will continue to fall gullible to the corrupt libs/nats foreign media own propaganda unit

  19. South:’I very much live in the real world and I can tell you Absent Albo isn’t do enough at all to earn is very generous salary.’

    Oh no, another nobody thinking he is a political strategist.

    The question is, why don’t they discuss the Morrison Leadership?

  20. United States :
    Coronavirus Cases:
    3,961,429
    Deaths:
    143,834
    – 62,879 new cases and 545 new deaths in the United States

    And research has suggested that (at least up to the beginning of June) actually covid related death numbers are about 20% to 40% higher than reported deaths.

  21. The app is picking up connections, but due to:

    ● low numbers of infections (unless you think 3,500 infectees out of a pool of 6,000,000 potentials – about 0.06%, leaving 99.94% in Victoria uninfected – is high),

    ● low take-up (6,000,000 out of the 15,000,000 necessary to achieve effective coverage),

    It has not done any better than manual contact tracing.

    Taking pride, indeed bragging about not installing the app, then criticising it because it has not worked, in part because so many refused to install it, reeks of hypocrisy.

    Those who didn’t install it are one of the main reasons it didn’t work. They brought about their own self-fulfilling prophecy. That’s hardly anything to be proud of, with such a serious disease that has substantially kyboshed the economy, rendered hundreds of thousands unemployed, bankrupted businesses, made thousands sick (tens of millions elsewhere), and killed so many.

    There’s a lot of mockery of the Trump rednecks, and some vocal locals here, who say the disease itself either doesn’t exist, or is so mild they don’t care if they get infected, or who they go onto infect (until they, or someone near and dear to them get it, if course).

    But by not giving the app at least a try, you’re constructively agreeing with the outright redneck deniers. You’re effectively saying the disease is not as important as your precious rights, or is overwrighed by your somewhat paranoid suspicions that some company which donates to the Liberal Party now has your personal details. Even if it’s true, so what? Do you think the virus cares what you think, or respects your rights to privacy, as applied by yourself to yourself? Do you think not installing the app has made you immune to infection in some way?

    So far we have had about 11,000 infections out of a population of 25,000,000 potential infections. That’s around 0.04% of Australians infected: four-hundreths of one percent. It leaves 99.96% of our population as vulnerable to a sickness whose long term prognosis we still don’t really understand, and who are as vulnerable to death across all generations as they were in January, when the first case appeared here.

    We are very blasé about this disease in Australia. We think we’ve dodged a bullet. But it’s only because the government is propping us up in one form or another. For an alternative view ask the unemployed, the proprietors presiding over the ruination of their businesses, or the sick. You can’t ask the dead.

    The ranks of the blasé include rednecks, anti-vaxxers, Freedom Riders, and Bill Gates conspiracy nuts. They are rightly criticised for not taking the virus seriously.

    But sadly, in my opinion, the ranks of the blasé also include those who refused to at least try helping, by doing as much to make the app work as they could by installing it, imperfect as it may be (with the caveat being extremely low infection rates so far). It seems you’d rather stick one up Morrison than do as much as you could to protect yourselves and your families

    Rednecks, anti-vaxxers, Freedom Riders, conspiracy nuts and app refuseniks: the virus loves youse all.

  22. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 11:40 am
    Mutual obligation requirements for people on jobseeker will be restarted on 4 August, meaning people will need to undertake four job searches a month.

    —————-

    What people should be very concern about it that , being forced in slave labour (work for the dole) , while corona virus is starting to spread again

  23. PeeBee @ #932 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:57 am

    South:’I very much live in the real world and I can tell you Absent Albo isn’t do enough at all to earn is very generous salary.’

    Oh no, another nobody thinking he is a political strategist.

    The question is, why don’t they discuss the Morrison Leadership?

    Wait for it……because everyone knows the Coalition is crap! 🙄

    Evidently not enough people to change their vote for them though.

  24. BB, ‘Those who didn’t install it are one of the main reasons it didn’t work. ‘

    I think the techies that visit this site, explained the main reason as to why it was ineffective.

    They never mentioned uptake.

  25. If majority of Australians had any ounce of intelligence , the announcements today should be the end of Morrison and his cronies .

    But as we seen at federal elections , too many Australians are gullible and continue to fall to the corrupt foreign owned media and foreign owned and controlled libs/nats propaganda

  26. Taking pride, indeed bragging about not installing the app, then criticising it because it has not worked, in part because so many refused to install it, reeks of hypocrisy.

    I was just suitably sceptical. I was right to be. The App has made 3/5 of bugger all difference cf manual Tracking and Tracking. And not because people refused to download it, but because it was full of bugs and incompatible with many older phones. You know, the sort that a lot of old people have. The people more at risk of catching COVID-19.

    Enjoying having your data hoovered up by the Liberal Party?

  27. The app was also introduced as a marketing exercise by Morrison to pump up his tyres as “Äction Scotty”doing things to save Australia. Having it actually work would have been a nice bonus. But, even if it does not, then the PR value has been achieved.

  28. It will be interesting to see if casuals working more than 20 hours a week are included in the definition of full time worker.

    Full time permanent workers with sick leave, holiday leave etc etc on one hand and full time casual workers ( defined by the government as such apparently ) with jack shit entitlements.

    We shall see where this goes.

  29. My daughters partner is a techie, and he basically explained to us why covid was hopeless from the get go.
    I wanted it to be a good app. But it isnt

  30. I was never ever going to download the convid safeapp, because it was going to be useless due of the lack of testing data

  31. So, according to Pete Evans, who at the end of the day is only a cook, his expensive piece of healing ray crap is effective against COVID-19 but masks aren’t?

  32. PeeBee @ #926 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:57 am

    South:’I very much live in the real world and I can tell you Absent Albo isn’t do enough at all to earn is very generous salary.’

    Oh no, another nobody thinking he is a political strategist.

    The question is, why don’t they discuss the Morrison Leadership?

    Because discussing Scrooter’s ‘leadership’ is pointless.
    What some of us want is the Labor leadership to be actively seeking to end Scrooter’s tenure. It’s frustrating and disappointing when there seems to be little appetite for the fight from senior Labor members.
    Going over and over and over why we hate Scrooter achieves nothing.

  33. What is also interesting about todays announcement is that casuals defined as part time workers by the Morrison government will receive less than those on jobsseeker. Bit of incentive there to move onto jobseeker for a casual worker who will lose income as a result of the changes.

    Deliberate or oversight ?

  34. Victoria says:
    Tuesday, July 21, 2020 at 12:15 pm

    GG

    Yep. Scotty the bona fide snake oil salesman.
    _________________
    And the public preferred him over Shorten!

  35. C@t

    Pete Evans and his ilk are dangerous. Mainly due to people who are very susceptible to being led down the garden path.

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