Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

After a long period of stasis, Newspoll credits the Coalition with its biggest lead since the first post-election poll a year ago.

After an extended period stuck at 51-49, The Australian reports a solid shift in the latest Newspoll, with the Coalition out to 53-47 from 51-49 three weeks ago. The primary vote shifts are a little more modest, with the Coalition on 44% (up two), Labor on 34% (down one), the Greens on 10% (down one) and One Nation on 4% (up one). There is little change on personal ratings, with Scott Morrison steady on 68% approval and 27% disapproval, Anthony Albanese down one to 41% and steady on 40%, and Morrison’s preferred prime minister lead out from 58-26 to 59-26. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1850, which is rather more than the usual 1500 to 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 18 of 25
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  1. citizen @ #838 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 9:54 am

    The rules of Jobkeeper have created big inequities in work places whereby all employees must be paid at least $1,500 per fortnight regardless of their normal pay.

    Everyone receiving equal compensation seems pretty equitable actually, by definition.

    A better concern might be whether the compensation everyone gets is adequate to actually live on.

    I know of one case where part time permanent employees had their pay almost doubled under the rules of JobKeeper. I’m sure each person appreciated the extra cash but it was essentially taxpayers’ money wasted and the probable cause of unnecessary resentment in the workplace.

    If someone has had their pay doubled thanks to JobKeeper it means they were earning under $20k/year. That’s below poverty level.

    Of all the wasteful things to be outrged about politically, lifting underemployed people out of poverty shouldn’t be one, and isn’t a waste of taxpayer money.

    Coworkers who resent chronically underpaid and underutilized people finally catching a break and becoming less underpaid are simply jerks.

  2. Firefox @ #847 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:02 am

    “Do you have a subscription to The Washington Post? If you do you should read this:”

    ***

    Please tell me you don’t actually pay them to brainwash you. At least get your brainwashing for free and use a paywall blocker lol.

    Of course we could all follow your “open minded” approach!

  3. a r

    The govt could have ensured that funds were available from the get go for those working in the aged care sector. They only agreed to support them now that here in Victoria aged care workers have been going from one facility to another to get enough work in a weekly cycle.
    And by doing so, infecting people at different facilities.

  4. C@t

    Yes I did. I’m over him and his snake oil salesmanship.

    Mind you where is the outrage about how the commonwealth have been handling the aged care sector during this crisis. It is under their control. Sigh

  5. This could be interesting

    Josh Bornstein
    @JoshBBornstein
    ·
    5m
    looking forward to it. 1pm on the inter webs.
    Quote Tweet

    Clare O’Neil MP
    @ClareONeilMP
    · 6m
    Work and the workplace is never going to be the same again after COVID.

    Join me, @TimothyJKennedy, @JoshBBornstein & @SarahJKaine today at 1pm to discuss the workplace and labour market issues that have been underscored and amplified by the pandemic.
    https://australiaathome.com.au/upcoming-conversations/broken-work-place-broken-society

  6. I like the analogy between activities now and what did occur in WW2 in UK say………When the government said “blackout” it meant “blackout”…(Dads Army – ‘Put that light out!’)….One of the outcomes was the increase in petty crime and road accidents. However, the blackout held for all of WW2…………….Currently, there are total morons who would challenge a blackout/lockdown/masks whatever, as their “right” not to accept these kinds of restrictions……It amazing how many of this lot – especially in the US – see their actions as some kind of patriot duty………

  7. “You seem to think Labor is in Government.”

    ***

    You seem to think that they aren’t, which is understandable I suppose… 😛

    Last time I checked Labor was most certainly in government in Queensland. Just had another look, and you wouldn’t believe it, but yes they are still the government. Incredible!

  8. The daily test of ABC “loyalty”?

    @BelindaJones68
    ·
    6m
    PM presser about #JobKeeper & #JobSeeker at 11am on
    @abcnews

    Dan Andrews also due to speak about the same time, PM’s presser will take precedence over Dan’s

    ABC will bring details & keep us up-to-date on both pressers says @JoeABCNews

  9. Victoria @ #816 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 7:29 am

    This is another aspect to the covid app.

    Denise Shrivell – Anti-Fascist
    @deniseshrivell
    ·
    11h
    So a tech firm aligned to the Liberal Party has possible access to a data base of 6 million Australians? Well – there’s another surprise #not #auspol #qanda
    Quote Tweet

    Stuart Musgrave
    @stuart_musgrave
    · 11h
    App collects 6 million sets of registration data
    Legislation has few protections for registration data
    Developer has admin access to the database
    Developer has connections to the LNP…. twitter.com/deniseshrivell…

    C’mon now. Own up.

    Who amongst you was actually stupid enough to infect their phones with this battery draining LNP data collection tool?

  10. Firefox @ #859 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:21 am

    “You seem to think Labor is in Government.”

    ***

    You seem to think that they aren’t, which is understandable I suppose… 😛

    Last time I checked Labor was most certainly in government in Queensland. Just had another look, and you wouldn’t believe it, but yes they are still the government. Incredible!

    One of the criticisms from the federal Government in their proposed changes to environmental approvals, was that the Qld Government was holding up projects like Adani. 🙂

  11. “One of the criticisms from the federal Government in their proposed changes to environmental approvals, was that the Qld Government was holding up projects like Adani.”

    ***

    Construction on the Carmichael Mine commenced in June 2019 after Adani received its final approvals and confirmation its plan complied with all regulatory conditions set by the Australian and Queensland Governments.

    https://www.adaniaustralia.com/projects-businesses/mine

    Shame on you, Labor.

  12. Why should a casual who was working 8 hours a fortnight receive the same amount of jobkeeper as another casual who was working 60 hours a fortnight especially given over one million casuals were deliberately excluded from the scheme in the first place ?

    Jobkeeper should be better targeted and the monies saved by reducing jobkeeper for those working or having worked very few hours directed to the one million casuals who have missed out completely.

    My buggest concern is this targeting of casuals “ overpaid” will be used as a cover to reduce the jobkeeper payment for all casuals.

    Remember their is a huge issue with the rate of casualization of the workforce in Australia. You have workers employed as casuals who are working 60 hours a fortnight, sometimes more, on regular shifts but do not have the same rights as full time workers. In the hospitality and tou4ism sectors , two of the hardest hit sectors, the rate of casualization is huge.

    Will Morrison use the overpayment argument to cover the reduction in jobkeeper for those casuals who look like a permanent worker, quack like a permanent worker but treated differently to a permanent worker ?

    Let us see where labor runs with its argument. Remember, the ACTU was also in favour of changes to jobkeeper that better target those workers most in need and addressing the problems around one payment amount for all casuals irrespective of hours worked.

  13. Firefox @ #865 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:34 am

    “One of the criticisms from the federal Government in their proposed changes to environmental approvals, was that the Qld Government was holding up projects like Adani.”

    ***

    Construction on the Carmichael Mine commenced in June 2019 after Adani received its final approvals and confirmation its plan complied with all regulatory conditions set by the Australian and Queensland Governments.

    https://www.adaniaustralia.com/projects-businesses/mine

    Shame on you, Labor.

    Yes, bad Labor.

    Allowing something to proceed after it met the regulatory conditions.

    How many years did that take? Obviously just a rubber stamp.

    I hear the mine is now going gangbusters. 🙂

  14. The Green campaign against Adani failed to stop the mine. Good. The Greens should not be rewarded. They should be opposed at every step. Labor can do themselves a lot of good by condemning the Greens – by making it absolutely clear they will never accede to the Greens and their mimics.

  15. DP

    Happily my phone is CovidSafe Safe. Xanthippe warned me from the start that there were no protocols established to deal with the data. It devolved from a failure to a data gathering scam.

  16. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #871 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 10:38 am

    Firefox @ #865 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:34 am

    “One of the criticisms from the federal Government in their proposed changes to environmental approvals, was that the Qld Government was holding up projects like Adani.”

    ***

    Construction on the Carmichael Mine commenced in June 2019 after Adani received its final approvals and confirmation its plan complied with all regulatory conditions set by the Australian and Queensland Governments.

    https://www.adaniaustralia.com/projects-businesses/mine

    Shame on you, Labor.

    Yes, bad Labor.

    Allowing something to proceed after it met the regulatory conditions.

    How many years did that take? Obviously just a rubber stamp.

    I hear the mine is now going gangbusters. 🙂

    Yep, not a cross word from Firefox (and lord knows he’s chock a block with them) about the Morrison government seeking to gut environmental laws.

  17. The Greens are Lib-like in their exploitation of refugees. They are Thatcher-like in their exploitation of coal miners. They have to be opposed.

  18. AR

    Thanks for dealing with that nonsense from citizen. He should feed his posts through a sanity checker. How can paying equal wages increase inequity??

    Also how is it a “waste of money” to increase people’s income above poverty? The opposite is true. It usually costs society far more in terms of health, social welfare, mental illness and court costs to repair people whose lives are broken by poverty than to prevent them entering poverty in the first place.

  19. Socrates @ #874 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 10:49 am

    DP

    Happily my phone is CoviDsafe Safe. Xanthippe warned me from the start that there were no protocols established to deal with the data. It devolved from a failure to a data gathering scam.

    How emblematic of the Modern Liberal.

    I’m glad I didn’t give in to Bushfire Bill’s proselytising for that damned app. Just another Liberal scam.

  20. doyley @ #865 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 10:36 am

    Why should a casual who was working 8 hours a fortnight receive the same amount of jobkeeper as another casual who was working 60 a fortnight especially given over one million casuals were deliberately excluded from the scheme in the first place ?

    Couple of reasons:

    1. Many of the people on 8 hours a fortnight aren’t doing that by choice.
    2. The basic living expenses for the 8 hour worker and the 60 hour worker are approximately the same.

    The excluded people shouldn’t have been. But they can be fixed without punishing others to do so (not that the government actually will).

  21. “Construction on the Carmichael Mine commenced in June 2019 after Adani received its final approvals and confirmation its plan complied with all regulatory conditions set by the Australian and Queensland Governments.”

    Shame on both. Approving a mine that will only rob jobs from other existing mines, requires infrastructure subsidies, is being given a concession on royalty payments and with an owner that pays no Australian tax is NOT in the interest of the Queensland or Australian economies. It benefits a desperate few in the immediate vicinity who get jobs from it. But with a fraction of thought the same government money could have created more jobs in the area by funding other things. Policy failure has led to economic failure, which locks in political failure.

  22. Rex,

    Absent Albo is getting bad advice from his Newscorp deserters.

    Infact i bet they higher echlons of the ALP are captured by them. Fighting over debt and deffict is the wrong approach. It’s fighting yesterdays war, which is always a mistake.

    The ALP should be trying to lure the public and the LNP into a policy area the LNP don’t have strength in. Clean Energy.
    The ALP adopted the NEG. the coalition dumped their own policy because of that. This should be the model the ALP follows. Keep following the clean energy and green economy jobs.

    If the ALP talks about new wealth creation linked to rennewables then the government will just wedge itself by opposing labor and then summer hits and everyone will be hot as f–k and thinking why aren’t we making money off this sunlight!

    Absent Albo needs to show up and start thinking.

  23. nath @ #853 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 10:02 am

    C@tmommasays:

    They’ve got one job to do. They can’t even do it properly. Not to mention they’ve already had one massive stuff-up with the Ruby Princess.

    But you go on your merry way and ignore all that. You usually do.
    _______________
    I agree. Obviously the Victorian disaster means more to me. Let’s agree then. Both Gladys and Dan are fucking hopeless and their failures mean both should resign in disgrace. Can we agree?

    As it’s not going to happen, eg the Trump model of political ‘leadership’, it’s moot. But we can dream. 🙂

  24. a r,

    Jobkeeper was introduced as a wage subsidy. No worker who was affected by government policies should have been worse off under jobkeeper let alone completely ignored.

    The reality was , because the government was under pressure and was caught with its pants down many casual workers ended up better off while one million csasuals received no support at all. One million casuals worse off.

    As long as a casual worker is no worse off than they were before lockdowns then I have no problem with a reduction in job keeper for some casuals. In many cases you would have casuals working one or two shifts a fortnight pre lockdowns simply to get some “ going out “ money. Yet those casuals are now receiving $1500 a fortnight while a huge number of casuals who were working 60 hours plus a fortnight pre lock downs are excluded from any jobkeeper payment at all.

    Recalibrate jobkeeper by all means on the proviso that no casual worker will be worse off than pre lockdown. Monies saved should be redirected towards those casuals excluded from the original package.

    Fairness for all not largeness for some.

  25. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #877 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:01 am

    Rex Douglas @ #879 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:58 am

    I see the polar bears are fast heading to extinction.

    But we must have our thermal coal….

    No thoughts about the Government’s environmental approval changes?

    I suppose it’s much easier to shout at the clouds.

    Don’t worry about me shouting at the clouds – you’ve got more important partisan business to look after. Keep repeating – thermal coal is good…

  26. doyley:

    In the hospitality and tou4ism sectors , two of the hardest hit sectors, the rate of casualization is huge.

    Higher Education too, on both counts.

  27. Rex Douglas @ #884 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 9:05 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #877 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:01 am

    Rex Douglas @ #879 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 8:58 am

    I see the polar bears are fast heading to extinction.

    But we must have our thermal coal….

    No thoughts about the Government’s environmental approval changes?

    I suppose it’s much easier to shout at the clouds.

    Don’t worry about me shouting at the clouds – you’ve got more important partisan business to look after. Keep repeating – thermal coal is good…

    When have I ever said that?

    So seemingly you’ve got no concerns with the Government’s changes around environmental approvals.

  28. south,
    It’s not about fighting yesterday’s war for Albanese. What it iS about is making sure that the embers of the old war horse aren’t fired up all over again by the Coalition for some easy hits on Labor going forward.

    You seem to forget that what won Kevin Rudd massive support was his proclamation that he was a fiscal conservative and that all this reckless spending has to stop!

    Now you in your Che t-shirt may not like them apples but there are plenty of people for whom budgetary restraint by their governments is important.

  29. C@tmomma @ #884 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:09 am

    south,
    It’s not about fighting yesterday’s war for Albanese. What it iS about is making sure that the embers of the old war horse aren’t fired up all over again by the Coalition for some easy hits on Labor going forward.

    You seem to forget that what won Kevin Rudd massive support was his proclamation that he was a fiscal conservative and that all this reckless spending has to stop!

    Now you in your Che t-shirt may not like them apples but there are plenty of people for whom budgetary restraint by their governments is important.

    You sound like a tory …?

  30. caf,

    A oversight by me. You are exactly right.

    Over 70% of workers in higher education are casuals or short term contract workers and all are excluded.

  31. COVID LIVE
    @covidliveau
    374 new #COVID19Aus cases in Victoria (+347 total)
    • 62 linked to known outbreaks
    • 312 under investigation
    • -27 reclassified
    11:10 AM · Jul 21, 2020

  32. OFGS

    Your Home Timeline
    RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    38s
    I tweeted out a few days ago, the only reason Josh Frydenberg & the Lib’s comm machine are making such a fuss about Frydenberg dragging himself to Canberra is for the optics.

    Exhibit A.
    Joshy & Scotty casually “walking to work” in the dark surrounded by a press throng.

    Martyrs

    No social distancing. It seems Morrison is immune.

  33. C@t,
    If budgetary restraint was important they why didn’t Albo say the FACT that Centerlink and social payments + the cost of the ABC cost the government the same money as Neg gearing.

    Jobs are important to people. Investing in Industry and creating Australian owned industries are important to people.

    Albo is pretty invisible and when he does show up, he’s talking about small stuff. Reminding people that the ALP hasn’t forgotten about the greater emergency of CC should be a priority. but……budgets.

    Just watch, Alan Kohler’s bit about magic money and the RBA will do the rounds. And i bet in a week or two the News LTD papers will be giving cover the government for spending big. Everyone knows this isn’t normal, so the spend isn’t going to be worried about.

    Part of leadership is seeing the way things are going to go and getting there first. It’s about Jobs!!!!! ALP should be talking about jobs all day every day. Why isn’t the government creating more jobs!

  34. This is current trend line

    DATE CASES TESTS POS
    Wed 15 Jul 224 27,040 0.83 %
    Thu 16 Jul 302 28,607 1.06 %
    Fri 17 Jul 415 24,409 1.70 %
    Sat 18 Jul 188 28,104 0.67 %
    Sun 19 Jul 343 26,674 1.29 %
    Mon 20 Jul 246 26,588 0.93 %
    Tue 21 Jul 347 29,464 1.18 %

  35. Bill Kristol@BillKristol

    51 years ago today we landed on the moon. Now we can’t produce enough swabs and lab equipment to test people quickly and reliably for the coronavirus so we can safely reopen our schools.

  36. C@tmomma @ #887 Tuesday, July 21st, 2020 – 11:09 am

    Now you in your Che t-shirt may not like them apples but there are plenty of people for whom budgetary restraint by their governments is important.

    Sure are. And all of them will be voting Conservative, no matter what Labor does. Why Labor believes it should cater to such beliefs in the midst of an unfolding economic, environmental and medical catastrophe is almost as dumbfounding as why Labor continue to cater to coal-miners, who wouldn’t dream of voting Labor ever again (assuming they ever actually did).

    Federal Labor – an experiment in policy-free, strategy-free and leadership-free politics!

    How’s that working out for you? How’s your polling going?

  37. People who breach any coronavirus restrictions could be jailed for up to two years, under legislation going before South Australia’s parliament today.

    Police Commissioner Grant Stevens yesterday said he supported the move even though he did not think it would deter “the types of people trying to sneak across borders” from offending.

  38. Bloody cheek. Morrison reminding journos to stick with social distancing arrangements, when he was filmed walking with Josh.

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