Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll

Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on track for a landslide in September.

Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:

• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.

• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.

• Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.

Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:

• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.

• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.

Meanwhile across the pond:

• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.

• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,562 comments on “Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #23 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 8:20 am

    I don’t believe my eyes and ears. The White house of Donald Trump, via their shill, er, Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany, just said ‘ The science should not stand in the way of schools reopening.’

    It has to be taken in the context of a nation that literally bans teaching about evolution in schools (but it’s okay, you can learn “Intelligent Design” instead). The religious fundie types are openly anti-science, and numerous enough. Trump knows where his base comes from.

    sprocket_ @ #83 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 10:24 am

    Ch9 saying Vic new cases ‘above 400’

    Vic is going to set a new nationwide record all by itself. Stage 4 lockdowns incoming.

  2. lizzie

    The number of infections was baked in a week ago. There would be two waves. The first being those who went into lock down already infected and the second being others in the same household. In NZ the second wave went higher than the first. Could well be what we are seeing in Melbourne. If so numbers should start to fall quickly in the next 2-3 days.

  4. continuo @ #78 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    a very frequently-expressed view is that the ‘fighting’ in Parliament and the media really alienates voters. They mostly deeply dislike it. They liken scrapping politicians to toddlers throwing tantrums.

    I actually agree with that sentiment completely. However it doesn’t mean that I don’t want parties to go after each other with vigor, it just means the way they do it in Parliament Question Time (for instance) is less vigorous and more over the top, childish, and stupid.

    I want to see relentless, well reasoned, persuasive attacks, not endless shouting, name-calling, and obfuscation. And not meek agreement and timid bipartisanship, either.

    By all means talk about what you want to do and about how all of it is great and positive and magical. But also talk about how everything the other side does is wrong, corrupt, and going to ruin us all; especially when it actually is.

  8. NSW has announced tighter restrictions on gatherings, to come into place from Friday next week.

    She said the new restrictions “give us every opportunity to keep New SouthWales as open as possible”.

    They are:

    Expanding the restrictions that were imposed on pubs – maximum group bookings of 20 people, maximum venue capacity of 300 – to clubs, restaurants, cafes and “all indoor hospitality venues”.
    The maximum number for weddings and corporate events will be 150, and there can be “completely seated, no dancing, no singing, no mingling”.
    Strict adherence to the four-square metre rule.
    Funerals and places of worship capped at 100 people.

    Berejiklian said funerals would have a lower limit because “they are emotional occasions where people know each other and that increases the risk of transmission”.

    She said they would not currently change the number of guests you can have in your home, which is capped at 20, but are recommending that 10 is a safe number.

  9. Who would the corrupt foreign own media in Australia blame if the states/territories who had their borders close, re-open them when the corrupt foreign media controlled and owned Libs/nats wanted

  10. Scott
    I am not sure what you expect the ALP to be doing at this stage of the political cycle because right now this is about the governments in office. The ALP has just won a byelection in a marginal seat with a Liberal lean.

  11. Good Morning

    Time for Australia to do. We know people mingling inside is the most dangerous activity in Covid 19 terms. That makes the mission sharing of a huge space indoors and eating at tables high risk.

    The same applies to dormitories.

    @bradlander tweets

    Barcelona is requiring landlords to rent vacant units to make more housing available, w/the threat that otherwise the city will acquire them an 1/2 mkt value & rent them out as social housing. Time for cities to get more ambitious in our housing policy.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-16/to-fill-vacant-units-barcelona-seizes-apartments

  12. Scott says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:25 am

    The attack what Labor may be could be doing
    Point it out that the Libs/nats with their corrupt foreign media unit , are not concern for the health of Australians , but more interested in partisan politics .

    Labor can point out that they are doing what bi-partisan politics should be like
    ———————————–
    Scott
    That might work if talking to the local ALP branches but most people don’t give a shit and if that Deloitte’s report is right then only the economy and the pandemic management will matter not your obsession with the media.

  15. @Aaron_Dodd2 tweets

    Here is the grossly irresponsible @TimSmithMP again. Undermining public health messaging and thus putting gullible people, their families, friends and contacts at risk. This is how Smith undermined the first lockdown and why he is partly responsible for the 2nd outbreak. #auspol https://twitter.com/TimSmithMP/status/1283909894265901058

    @TimSmithMP tweets

    Chairman Dan is at it again. Stupid rules that reasonable people will rightly regard as having no impact on combatting the spread of the virus. Why do many Melbournians, particularly women like walking/running the Tan? Because it’s lit at night and there are no cars – it’s safe. https://twitter.com/TimSmithMP/status/1283909894265901058/photo/1

  16. NSW has announced tighter restrictions on gatherings, to come into place from Friday next week.

    She said the new restrictions “give us every opportunity to keep New SouthWales as open as possible”.

    They are:

    Expanding the restrictions that were imposed on pubs – maximum group bookings of 20 people, maximum venue capacity of 300 – to clubs, restaurants, cafes and “all indoor hospitality venues”.
    The maximum number for weddings and corporate events will be 150, and there can be “completely seated, no dancing, no singing, no mingling”.
    Strict adherence to the four-square metre rule.
    Funerals and places of worship capped at 100 people.

    On the one hand, not applying tighter restrictions until a week from now makes the whole exercise a joke. On the other hand, calling those piss-weak changes “restrictions” means it was never intended as anything else.

    It’s like watching a slow motion train crash. 🙁

  18. Victoria will today announce 428 cases of COVID-19 over the last 24 hours, according to multiple sources.

    Premier Daniel Andrews is expected to give a press conference at 11.30am.

    Victoria recorded its single highest day-to-day increase for the state yesterday, with 317 new cases recorded.

    Mr Andrews called that figure “relatively stable”, saying it will “take some time” before we see a pattern in which they’re driven down.

  22. @posty tweets

    Any journo got a spare $888 to give to the DTA to find out exactly how much the CovidSafe app was a failure from the getgo? https://www.righttoknow.org.au/request/bcg_and_covidsafe asking for this guy

    @AshaRangappa_ tweets

    THREAD. Watching the interview with @MaryLTrump on @maddow and caught a small note which has enormous significance: She mentions how, when she provided the NYT with legal documents, she discovered things about the Trump estate which her “trustees” had never revealed 1/

  23. poroti says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 11:07 am

    Australia hasn’t had “waves” – we have had ripples on a pond.

    Victoria is proving, just as the UK, Italy and Spain did that lockdowns are ineffective.

  25. @jameshoncockABC tweets

    Exercise where you live says Premier.
    In one example people travelled from Coburg to Rye for exercise.
    “a day trip is not the same as daily exercise”

    @KamalaHarris tweeted

    Today I announced the RELIEF Act, a bill to ban evictions and foreclosures for renters and homeowners for a year—and prohibit landlords from raising the rent during this health and economic crisis.

    Housing is a human right. It’s time we treated it like one.

  27. Guytuar
    LOL nah nup not in the slightest because the current E-M boundaries are favorable to the Liberals yet the ALP has been able to hold it despite the lost of a popular local MP and Scott’s obsession with the media is not shared by most Australians.

  29. Beemer

    Scott’s obsession with the media is a truth telling for Labor strategists needing to get a message out.

    See the Palace letters as to why the media is an enemy of Labor.

  30. Bucephalus @ #122 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 11:48 am

    poroti says:
    Friday, July 17, 2020 at 11:07 am

    Australia hasn’t had “waves” – we have had ripples on a pond.

    Victoria is proving, just as the UK, Italy and Spain did that lockdowns are ineffective.

    Ummm. I think what they are proving is that either not having adequate lockdowns, or lifting lockdowns too early are both pretty dumb ideas.

    Unless you happen to own a casino or a hotel, of course 🙁

  32. P1

    The counter to Buce is obvious. USA and Brazil.

    Bruce is just showing like Trump and allies kill the people for the economy is the go for the right.

  33. We’ve seen the rumour mill in action with regard to new Victorion Covid 19 cases today: “over 400”, “over 500”, 769, 428.

    The ABC< Guardian and other news sites are now saying 428, so that seems to be the number.

  34. Guytaur
    The election isn’t tomorrow or next Saturday.

    Most Australians don’t care about the media and it isn’t a major issue that will determine the next election.

  35. Beemer

    Any politician that ignores the role of media when working out how to get the message out is a total flop.
    No need to be in parliament at all. Your advocacy falls on deaf ears.

    Again thanks for proving the point.

  36. The rumour mill has been in overdrive over “stage 4 lockdown”, too.

    Spocky #FederalICAC.
    @Spockarama
    Australia is experiencing an unprecedented level of troll farms infiltrating our social media & creating narratives that didn’t exist such as Australians want Dan to resign.

    Some one is spending millions of dollars to engage these troll farms. #auspol

  37. @joshgnosis tweets

    I feel like all this morning hype over what the numbers will be isn’t useful tbh (aware that I have contributed to it).

    I have friends in Melb who have stopped reading the news and try to avoid seeing the daily numbers because all it does is add unnecessary stress.

    The other thing is I get messages being like “Did you see the numbers?” without the context of what Sutton and Andrews said about where they think it is at. This focus on the number alone is bad.

  38. Guytaur
    You are now confusing political strategy with Scott wanting the ALP to be obsessed with the media and to be continuously in full attack mode as though the election is this week.

  41. Tim Smith needs to realize that it’s not that the activity is safe or not (eg Running the Tan), it’s the action of going there, driving there, somebody touching or sneezing on your car. Or you pass somebody walking in the other direction who is sick, who might have used the drink fountain, touched the traffic light buttons.

    They are trying to contain suburban outbreaks to those suburbs and prevent you from becoming a carrier.

    Can we advise him to go back to the side of Kew that is not near…

  43. Beemer

    Its you obsessed with denying the media role in politics. The term gatekeepers was not conjured up out of thin air.

    Your lets not think about the media and strategise to counter the dominance of the right is the sure way to defeat.

  44. Buce

    ….t lockdowns are ineffective

    😆 Did you get that email NZ sent you last weekend ? It read “Having a good time.Wish you were here” .they even sent some happy snaps from last weekend.

    .

    .

  47. Buce:’Victoria is proving, just as the UK, Italy and Spain did that lockdowns are ineffective.’

    I was under the impression that you were a reasonably intelligent person, after all they don’t normally give stupid people a commission in the ADF.

    So I assumed you were trolling.

    But your comments of late, has made me reconsider my original assumption.

  48. AZ:’Tim Smith needs to realize that it’s not that the activity is safe or not (eg Running the Tan), it’s the action of going there, driving there, somebody touching or sneezing on your car. Or you pass somebody walking in the other direction who is sick, who might have used the drink fountain, touched the traffic light buttons.’

    Give it a rest AZ, that means the person having to think. Tim has shown in the past, he is not into that.

  49. When a Qatari sheikh came to live in L.A., an entire economy sprouted to meet his wishes. “His highness doesn’t like to hear no,” one associate told a professor.

    By HARRIET RYAN, MATT HAMILTON
    JULY 16, 20205 AM

    Los Angeles has long enjoyed a reputation as a playground for the rich, but the handsome teenage prince who arrived nine years ago operated on a different level.

    He came from the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar on a private jet with a squad of servants, a bottomless natural gas fortune and the stated goal of a college education. He installed himself in the Beverly Wilshire, the hotel that “Pretty Woman” made famous, and embarked on a lifestyle that few undergraduates could imagine — luxury suites for Lakers games, lunch at the Ivy and regular excursions to gamble in Las Vegas.

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-16/qatar-prince-usc-ucla-la

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