Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll

Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on track for a landslide in September.

Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:

• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.

• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.

Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.

Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:

• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.

• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.

Meanwhile across the pond:

• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.

• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,562 comments on “Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll”

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  1. RonniSalt
    @RonniSalt
    ·
    56s
    It’s totally for positive PR optics.

    Of course Josh Frydenberg could have delivered his statement from Melbourne.

    But that would mean the public wouldn’t be treated to the story of his hero’s journey to Canberra on our behalf & what a martyr he is for it.

  2. lizzie @ #1131 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    Player One

    You said you didn’t understand something. Several posters have tried to explain it to you. You insist that you still don’t understand. How is that “piling on”?

    Just repeating what an R value is does not explain how the current numbers could support the claims of the CMO that NSW has an R value of 1.4, and Victoria has an R value of 1. That’s the part I find hard to understand. The implied accuracy of these claims is at least one decimal place.

    But when you consider how an R value is calculated, and look at the actual numbers, it is abundantly clear that it is not possible to come up with the answers the CMO blithely quoted, with any degree of accuracy at all.

    To get those answers, the CMO must be using only the last 2 or 3 days of data from Victoria, where the numbers have jumped around from 300 to 400 to 200. In NSW during the same period the numbers have jumped around in the range of 10 to 15.

    Calculating an R value at all based on numbers such as these is not only foolish, it is potentially dangerous.

  3. Spray @ #1140 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Victoria @ #1132 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Spray

    I dont know why you are being sensitive about my disgust at the media over the past few weeks. Especially from NSW.

    I am well entitled to feeling this way.

    I can see why you’d feel under siege, just not sure why you feel the need to blame one state for it. I saw plenty of idiotic stuff from Victoria getting stuck into the Andrews government, even before the case numbers exploded.

    BTW, can you point me to the expressions of sympathy from the Victorian media (let alone the likes of GG and others on this board) when NSW was bearing the brunt of the pandemic back in the early days?

    For the record idiot, I have not indulged in any NSW or Federal Government bashing re the pandemic. I understood at the outset that it was going to be a difficult issue to manage and that finger pointing and all round shoutiness was totally unproductive and missed the point of what needed to be done.

    There are legitimate questions regarding how the Ruby Princess came to dock and unload it’s passengers. However, my feeling is naievity and the Aussie “She’ll be right” ethos. Neither of which can be sheeted home to the The Premier or the Prime Minister.

    So, I get you might hate Victoria and Victorians. But, at least try and get your fact straight.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #1153 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:13 am

    Spray @ #1140 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Victoria @ #1132 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Spray

    I dont know why you are being sensitive about my disgust at the media over the past few weeks. Especially from NSW.

    I am well entitled to feeling this way.

    I can see why you’d feel under siege, just not sure why you feel the need to blame one state for it. I saw plenty of idiotic stuff from Victoria getting stuck into the Andrews government, even before the case numbers exploded.

    BTW, can you point me to the expressions of sympathy from the Victorian media (let alone the likes of GG and others on this board) when NSW was bearing the brunt of the pandemic back in the early days?

    For the record idiot, I have not indulged in any NSW or Federal Government bashing re the pandemic. I understood at the outset that it was going to be a difficult issue to manage and that finger pointing and all round shoutiness was totally unproductive and missed the point of what needed to be done.

    There are legitimate questions regarding how the Ruby Princess came to dock and unload it’s passengers. However, my feeling is naievity and the Aussie “She’ll be right” ethos. Neither of which can be sheeted home to the The Premier or the Prime Minister.

    So, I get you might hate Victoria and Victorians. But, at least try and get your fact straight.

    This is self-parody, right?

  5. Not that I’m suggesting his gay – not that there is anything wrong with that. No. I’m suggesting that he might in fact be an intergalactic space cockroach in a Scotty suit.

    There’s a guy who owns a nearby pie shop up here.

    They have always “just run out of pies”. Same for sausage rolls. Also cream buns. They don’t take credit cards either.

    The spooky thing is that if you wear Polaroid sunglasses into the shop you CAN see vague, sort-of holographic images, chimeras of pies and sausage rolls shimmering in and out of vision. But you can’t touch them. They seem to be always just out of reach. These savouries obviously exist only in some alternative dimension.

    The man himself moves awkwardly, and in jerks. He never looks you in the face, and keeps strange hours.

    Sensationally, a few weeks ago a discarded carapace was found in a nearby rubbish bin. As if … something… had grown too big for… something else.

    He is clearly an intergalactic space cockroach. True story.

  6. Spray @ #1156 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:14 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #1153 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:13 am

    Spray @ #1140 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Victoria @ #1132 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Spray

    I dont know why you are being sensitive about my disgust at the media over the past few weeks. Especially from NSW.

    I am well entitled to feeling this way.

    I can see why you’d feel under siege, just not sure why you feel the need to blame one state for it. I saw plenty of idiotic stuff from Victoria getting stuck into the Andrews government, even before the case numbers exploded.

    BTW, can you point me to the expressions of sympathy from the Victorian media (let alone the likes of GG and others on this board) when NSW was bearing the brunt of the pandemic back in the early days?

    For the record idiot, I have not indulged in any NSW or Federal Government bashing re the pandemic. I understood at the outset that it was going to be a difficult issue to manage and that finger pointing and all round shoutiness was totally unproductive and missed the point of what needed to be done.

    There are legitimate questions regarding how the Ruby Princess came to dock and unload it’s passengers. However, my feeling is naievity and the Aussie “She’ll be right” ethos. Neither of which can be sheeted home to the The Premier or the Prime Minister.

    So, I get you might hate Victoria and Victorians. But, at least try and get your fact straight.

    This is self-parody, right?

    Get your fact straight dickhead!

  7. I watched that twitter video about the UK Gov’t response to the pandemic. Depressing stuff.

    Out of curiosity I searched for polling data from the UK. The Tories are still polling at the levels of the last election and Johnson has a positive approval rating. WTAF?

    I understand and appreciate we are always evaluating how it’s been handled here and don’t think any Gov’t should be above scrutiny but a bit of international comparison would be useful. Yeah, there was probably a slip up in quarantine in Melbourne but that’s a far cry from putting COVID patients into aged care facilities, refusing shipments of PPE, having your advisers flout lockdown while positive for COVID, the list goes on.

    Seems increadible that Andrews is copping all this while in the UK it seems to be “as you were”.

  8. I was just getting used to “idiot”, now it’s “dickhead”. Could lead to an identity crisis.

    Not sure these were proportionate responses to my comments, but it must be said they’re difficult to argue with!

  9. For those jumping on P1 it is quite simple. There is not enough data points to get an accurate R number. What was the average daily temperature in July ? Would just using the first 3 days provide an accurate number ? Possible but most like not.

  10. poroti @ #1161 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:23 am

    For those jumping on P1 it is quite simple. There is not enough data points to get an accurate R number. What was the average daily temperature in July ? Would just using the first 3 days provide an accurate number ? Possible but most like not.

    My slight correction to Player One would be that yes you can construct an R number from that limited data, it’s just that it would be foolish to try to infer very much from it.

  11. So, is it worth my while watching a replay of Insiders ?

    Is it still a little CPG bubble of LibLab sycophants on the drip …?

  12. Bugler says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:21 am
    I watched that twitter video about the UK Gov’t response to the pandemic. Depressing stuff.

    Out of curiosity I searched for polling data from the UK. The Tories are still polling at the levels of the last election and Johnson has a positive approval rating. WTAF?

    Corbyn and his co-riders wrecked Labour. It will take time – probably a lot of time – before voters will feel inclined to support them again, pandemic or no pandemic.


  13. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:34 am

    So, is it worth my while watching a replay of Insiders ?

    Is it still a little CPG bubble of LibLab sycophants on the drip …?

    You will be happy to know no one bothered to mention Michael O’Brien’s yapping. If your looking for someone to take the Greens seriously, not the show for you.

  14. P1

    Fine. But being in the industry I am, and in the area I live, I have to care

    I wasn’t talking about temperature. :sigh:

  15. lizzie @ #1167 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:39 am

    P1

    Fine. But being in the industry I am, and in the area I live, I have to care

    I wasn’t talking about temperature. :sigh:

    Neither was I. We are now routinely turning down bookings from Victoria and some other states, and also carefully vetting our customers from NSW to avoid the “hotspots”.

    We have to monitor the current situation closely, and the regulations affecting our industry, or we could find ourselves at the centre of a new cluster. This would put us out of business … very likely permanently.

    An idiotic CMO who makes silly and unsupported allegations about people in NSW now being more likely to spread the virus than Victorians is not something we need 🙁

  16. Oh I’ve just seen an Insiders tweet of David Crowe excusing our parliamentarians from gathering.

    Seems he’s not quite au fait with this new digital tech age …?

    Good to see Andrew Wilkie dismiss his sycophancy.

    If Fed Parliament can’t sit physically, then it sure could convene virtually. There’s been more than enough time to organise to do so. Is it 2020 or 1920? No wonder politics, political parties and politicians are held in such low regard nowadays #auspol #politas #FederalICACNOW— Andrew Wilkie MP (@WilkieMP) July 18, 2020

  17. South Africa cases become fifth-highest worldwide

    Among the countries that reported the highest one-day case increases as part of that startling record global rise reported by the WHO is South Africa, which now ranks fifth in the world for confirmed coronavirus cases caseload as the African continent faces the pandemics first wave head-on, AP reports.

    South Africa on Saturday reported 13,285 new confirmed cases for a total of 350,879. That puts the country ahead of Peru and makes up roughly half the cases in Africa. The only four countries with more confirmed cases the US, Brazil, India, and Russia all have far more people than South Africa’s 57 million.

    Women look on as a charity hands out food parcels to poor communities in celebration of Mandela Day in Eikenhof, South Africa, 18 July 2020. Photograph: Shafiek Tassiem/Reuters
    The virus arrived on the continent a little later than elsewhere, giving officials more time to prepare, but Africa has fewer health care resources than any other region and South Africas public hospitals struggle to handle the growing number of patients.

    Gauteng province, home to Johannesburg and the capital, Pretoria, is now Africa’s epicentre for the virus. It has one-quarter of the country’s population and many of the poor are crowded in township areas with inadequate access to clean water and sanitation.

    South Africa has seen 4,948 reported virus deaths, but the South African Medical Research Council in its most recent report shows the country had 10,944 excess deaths between 6 May and 7 July.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/19/coronavirus-live-news-who-reports-record-global-case-rise-as-sydney-tightens-overseas-arrivals#block-5f1393ca8f08c52937e2f88d


  18. Player One says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:48 am
    …..

    An idiotic CMO who makes silly and unsupported allegations about people in NSW now being more likely to spread the virus than Victorians is not something we need

    As lock-downs aim to reduce the spread, it is probable the case. We will know in a few days. if the CMO is right, the Victorian cases loads will cross the NSW load in a few days. That is the thing with this, reality matters, it is not some debating point on a blog.

  19. continuo @ #1162 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:36 am

    Bugler says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:21 am
    I watched that twitter video about the UK Gov’t response to the pandemic. Depressing stuff.

    Out of curiosity I searched for polling data from the UK. The Tories are still polling at the levels of the last election and Johnson has a positive approval rating. WTAF?

    Corbyn and his co-riders wrecked Labour. It will take time – probably a lot of time – before voters will feel inclined to support them again, pandemic or no pandemic.

    Wrong.
    Labour will win the next election under Starmer.

  20. Player One @ #1153 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:11 am

    lizzie @ #1131 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    Player One

    You said you didn’t understand something. Several posters have tried to explain it to you. You insist that you still don’t understand. How is that “piling on”?

    Just repeating what an R value is does not explain how the current numbers could support the claims of the CMO that NSW has an R value of 1.4, and Victoria has an R value of 1. That’s the part I find hard to understand. The implied accuracy of these claims is at least one decimal place.

    But when you consider how an R value is calculated, and look at the actual numbers, it is abundantly clear that it is not possible to come up with the answers the CMO blithely quoted, with any degree of accuracy at all.

    To get those answers, the CMO must be using only the last 2 or 3 days of data from Victoria, where the numbers have jumped around from 300 to 400 to 200. In NSW during the same period the numbers have jumped around in the range of 10 to 15.

    Calculating an R value at all based on numbers such as these is not only foolish, it is potentially dangerous.

    I think the CMO has a little bit more data than you to work with.

  21. continuo

    South Africa has very large slums and limited health resources. There is no way they will come out of this nicely.

    Cape town ( the place I have spent some time) has a density of 1530 people a sq/km. Melbourne has a density of 508.


  22. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:55 am

    Let’s face it, Insiders has become so boringly predictable and routine in its conservativeness…

    Q&A got better with the change of host, Insiders got worse.

  23. On Insiders, it was alright. Nothing overly informative but nothing narky. Speers tried to box Michele O’Neil in with a few “but Labors” which she batted off easily.

    Did make me think about any time the BCA, Australian Industry Group, Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the IPA, etc give policy direction or release reports they’re reported without question despite clear links to the Liberal party but if the ACTU releases anything it’s always through the lense of what the Labor position is.

  24. Player One says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:48 am
    lizzie @ #1167 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:39 am

    We have to monitor the current situation closely, and the regulations affecting our industry, or we could find ourselves at the centre of a new cluster. This would put us out of business … very likely permanently.

    The industry in which I’ve been involved for the last 35 years has experienced 100% loss of sales as a result of covid19. The disruption has been felt in every market. Production has declined to zero. There is no prospect at all that this will change until the pandemic is over. Suppliers in this sector face a complete loss of production and income and, in many cases, foreclosures and the forfeiture of assets.

    At the same time, I have switched my own production to serving other sectors that are also experiencing covid19 disruption. These sectors have lost access to more than 75% of their historical markets but I’m able to prepare their produce in ways that will allow them to create new products and access new markets. This will eventually be very positive for these sectors as well as for me.

    So covid19 is having divergent effects. It represents business and financial collapse for some. For others it represents new opportunity as well as new problems and new learning.

    For my own, if I had not been prepared to change my effort I would have had to close down. Difficult as it is, my business is worth quite a lot more now than it was 6 months ago. I’m not sure how long this will last….but few things are predictable now. At many levels, we have to learn to live with uncertainties that are unprecedented. Risks are very high.

  25. Player One says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 10:55 am

    frednk @ #1172 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:53 am

    That is the thing with this, reality matters, it is not some debating point on a blog.

    Of course it matters. That’s my point. It matters to get it right.

    The CMO job is to get it down, part of that is organized restriction, the other part is scaring the trousers off the entire population. NSW will know if he has succeed in a few days. If he fails your bookings are gong to be the least of NSW’s problems.

  26. The impacts of Covid19 have been different across the economy.
    Some sectors like travel, tourism, hospitality and entertainment have shut down or are operating at a small fraction of their pre Covid levels.
    Essentials like groceries, pharmacies, power, water would be largely unaffected.

  27. Standby for the backlash over mandatory masks in Melbourne. At the moment its probably 1% who wear them. Its going to be carnage.

  28. Standby for the backlash over mandatory masks in Melbourne. At the moment its probably 1% who wear them. Its going to be carnage.
    ______
    Particularly once they see they cost between $10 and $50 EACH.

  29. I think P1 under scores why elimination is the only option. The reality is she will not have a business until interstate tourism opens up and no matter what bullshit is spoken, tourism won’t restart until it is safe to travel again and people feel it is safe.

    Not traveling to Canberra is sane. Pressuring state government to open boarders and take other risks is insane. It would be helpful if Morrison was consistent.

  30. C@tmomma @ #1190 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 11:15 am

    Confessions @ #1117 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    Victoria @ #1111 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:40 am

    Barney ITB

    No point trying. Player one just doesn’t want to understand for some reason.

    I’m uncertain why so many PBers are willing to get into P1’s circular, go-nowhere, ridiculous ‘debates’. Who freakin cares whether s/he understands or not?

    Exactly. Why come to PB to keep P1 bemused?

    You two are both such charmers, aren’t you?

  31. See new Tweets
    Conversation
    Heidi Murphy
    @heidimur
    Premier: “80% of our new cases since mid-May are through workplace transmission.. including private aged care”. Police, Worksafe, and health teams to be visiting high risk industries.. like call-centres… distribution centres.. meat processing centres.
    11:17 AM · Jul 19, 2020·Twitter Web App

  32. A quick check on eBay indicates gouging already starting.

    Up to $5,000 for a pack of 20

    Unbelievable.

    The government should have announced they were giving them away for free

  33. BK @ #1193 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 11:24 am

    Standby for the backlash over mandatory masks in Melbourne. At the moment its probably 1% who wear them. Its going to be carnage.
    ______
    Particularly once they see they cost between $10 and $50 EACH.

    I’d say it is much higher than 1%. I have noticed a significant increase in masks when out and about.

  34. Can you imagine how many calls the police will get about people not wearing masks?They will be overwhelmed.Not to mention the arguments ,confrontation and violence it will cause.

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