Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll

Concern about the state of the economy pushes climate change down the issue agenda batting order; evidence of a trend in favour of legalisation of cannabis; and New Zealand Labour still on track for a landslide in September.

Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:

• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.

• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.

Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.

Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:

• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.

• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.

Meanwhile across the pond:

• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.

• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,562 comments on “Miscellany: issues polling, drug law reform, Eden-Monaro wash-up, NZ poll”

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  1. lizzie @ #1095 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:32 am

    Did he really go to the football again? I didn’t catch it on TV.
    This is so arrogant.

    Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    53s
    22,000 went to the football yesterday. Morrison mingled with donors in the corporate box, interviewed footballers. But can’t organise 150 MPs to sit in Parliament? Lazy. And journalists seem to be OK with this and can’t see the anomaly. #insiders #auspol

    Look on the bright side, at least he didn’t take Anthony with him.

  2. Re Scott @9:19. Morrison and his cronies reluctance to:

    Fix the economy – they want “reform” – more privatisation, lower corporate taxes
    Fix the employment rate – not interested except for political fallout
    Fix Education – not interested apart from more privatisation of delivery, more user pays
    Fix Health – see Education
    Fix Cost of living – see employment rate
    Fix environmental issues – not interested. Want to wind back protections.
    Fix the corrupt like behaviour – not interested apart from allegations involving unions

  3. “Remember all the “Sleepy Joe” memes sucked up as truth by a few weak minded posters here on PB re Biden’s imminent Dementia. It was bullshit and has now been replaced by a “Biden The Evil Mastermind” meme. That’s bullshit too.”

    ***

    Joe Biden must release the results of his cognitive tests — voters need to know

    Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden very nearly survived his first press conference in three months without a single goof. Almost, but not quite.

    At the very end of the question-and-answer session, asked by a reporter if he had been tested for “cognitive decline,” he answered, “I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly.” Biden went on to say he could “hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.”

    Pretty snappy answer for a fellow thought by 38 percent of likely voters to be suffering a mental decline. Except, of course, that Biden’s response raised more questions than it answered.

    Such as…where was he tested? Why, exactly, is he being “constantly tested”? Are his doctors worried about him? Most importantly, when will he release the results of those tests?

    A columnist for The Washington Post ascribed concerns about Biden’s mental state to political gamesmanship, writing that “Fox News has been relentlessly pushing the line that Joe Biden might be suffering from dementia.” The columnist also categorized commentary about Biden’s near invisibility over the past few months as “the Trumpworld talking point that Biden is hiding in his basement.”

    In other words, Biden’s disappearing act and his apparent mental challenges are figments of Fox News’ collective imagination.

    Sorry, that doesn’t wash. I would like to remind WaPo readers that questions about Biden’s acuity have circulated for months, leading him to promise last September to publish his medical history. While he did indeed release some details of a physical check-up in December, that report did not include any appraisal of his cognitive capabilities.

    At the time, The Washington Post quoted Stuart Jay Olshansky, a public health expert at the University of Illinois at Chicago who “analyzes the longevity of presidents,” as saying that Biden’s workout regimen was a good indicator that he was fit.

    However, in that piece, Olshansky acknowledges that “the only test that hasn’t been done is the cognitive functioning test.”

    The WaPo article further quotes the professor as saying, “Cognitive tests are typically not required unless problems are detected.”

    Oops.

    https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to

  4. Player One @ #1099 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:32 am

    Victoria @ #1083 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:07 am

    Player one

    What? A professor in epidemiology cant say something they understand to be the case.
    They have been spending each and every day following the data on this virus.

    You are not making any sense whatsoever.

    The problem is that the numbers simply do not support the statements he made – at least, not to the level of accuracy he implied. And, when you are talking about R values near 1, accuracy is critical.

    If you want the actual numbers, look here –

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0#dailygrowth

    Compare the graphs of NSW and Victoria, and you will see what I mean.

    Your actual numbers aren’t R.

  5. ”But can’t organise 150 MPs to sit in Parliament?”

    He only has to organise a quorum – 30 members – plus a few spares. That plus pairing arrangements. Should be a doddle.

  6. Steve777 @ #1102 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:37 am

    Morrison and his cronies reluctance to:

    Fix the economy – they want “reform” – more privatisation, lower corporate taxes
    Fix the employment rate – not interested except for political fallout
    Fix Education – not interested apart from more privatisation of delivery, more user pays
    Fix Health – see Education
    Fix Cost of living – see employment rate
    Fix environmental issues – not interested. Want to wind back protections.
    Fix the corrupt like behaviour – not interested except apart from allegations involving unions

    and…not formally entering into a coalition with Labor.

  7. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    4m
    Unbelievable. A rare sighting of a federal Labor MP on #Insiders. Jim Chalmers. On for four seconds 42 minutes into the episode. Like seeing a white whale. #auspol

  8. Victoria @ #1064 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    Why do you think I have had a gutful with the NSW media pile on of Victoria.

    They have had an outbreak in an hotel environment. Other hotels have breached rules and got a slap on the wrist.

    Going forward the restrictions commencing Friday are laughable.

    And they want to put it on Victoria.

    As I said yesterday, they can GAGF

    Victoria,

    I live in NSW, and I don’t hear anyone who has anything but concern and good wishes for the problems being experienced in your state. As well as an acute awareness that the same thing could happen here. Maybe already is.

    Most thinking NSW people don’t source their information or opinions from Alan Jones or the Daily Telegraph. God knows why you do.

  9. Find this puzzling-why aren’t the affected businesses immediately notified? Shouldn’t the aim be to avoid further spread by the cleaning of surfaces, etc? By contacting them immediately they can in turn alert their contacts . Further, why only one testing station and the delay in providing more? There seems to be a reactive rather than proactive approach in NSW.
    “The Planet Fitness Casula voice mail message notes that it found out about cases linked to the gym from the news media rather than NSW Health.“

  10. Spray

    The media pile on, especially from NSW has been appalling and disgraceful.

    It wont be forgotten anytime soon.

  11. I wish Pegasus would come back. Since she left, the “pack” we have here on PB seems to have decided to turn their attention on me 🙁

  12. Player One

    You said you didn’t understand something. Several posters have tried to explain it to you. You insist that you still don’t understand. How is that “piling on”?

  13. Spray

    I dont know why you are being sensitive about my disgust at the media over the past few weeks. Especially from NSW.

    I am well entitled to feeling this way.

  14. Firefox says:
    Sunday, July 19, 2020 at 9:38 am

    The pop-left campaign against the Democratic candidate….nothing new there. In a binary race, they’re stumping for Trump. Just like last time. The pop-left are pro-Republican decoys.

  15. Today’s Telecrap front page is not attacking anyone. For some reason it’s promoting a new movie to be made in Australia featuring Nicole Kidman. The other 25% of the front page is taken up with news on idiots being fined plus ads.

    Three quarters of a front page promotion – a worth about $75,000 to … someone.

    People pay for this crap.

  16. 18/07/2020|1min from SkyNews..

    There are reports former prime minister Tony Abbott is being encouraged to return to federal politics. The Daily Telegraph has reported senior members of the Liberal Party’s right faction want Mr Abbott to run for the seat of Parramatta. It’s understood the seat could be up for grabs with speculation long-serving Labor MP Julie Owens may retire. The Daily Telegraph says Mr Abbott declined the offer, according to a Liberal source. Mr Abbott has been out of politics since losing his seat of Warringah to independent Zali Steggal at the last federal election.

  17. Cheryl Kernot
    @cheryl_kernot
    ·
    52s
    Why can’t Frydenberg deliver the economic statement from Melbourne if Parliament’s not sitting??? All that tittering about how he had to get ACT exemption is ridiculous & trivial #insiders

  18. Victoria @ #1132 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    Spray

    I dont know why you are being sensitive about my disgust at the media over the past few weeks. Especially from NSW.

    I am well entitled to feeling this way.

    I can see why you’d feel under siege, just not sure why you feel the need to blame one state for it. I saw plenty of idiotic stuff from Victoria getting stuck into the Andrews government, even before the case numbers exploded.

    BTW, can you point me to the expressions of sympathy from the Victorian media (let alone the likes of GG and others on this board) when NSW was bearing the brunt of the pandemic back in the early days?

  19. Abbott gets a healthy pension without having to perform the duties of a backbencher in a marginal seat. Why would he want to return to Parliament?

  20. sprocket_ @ #1137 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:59 am

    18/07/2020|1min from SkyNews..

    There are reports former prime minister Tony Abbott is being encouraged to return to federal politics. The Daily Telegraph has reported senior members of the Liberal Party’s right faction want Mr Abbott to run for the seat of Parramatta. It’s understood the seat could be up for grabs with speculation long-serving Labor MP Julie Owens may retire. The Daily Telegraph says Mr Abbott declined the offer, according to a Liberal source. Mr Abbott has been out of politics since losing his seat of Warringah to independent Zali Steggal at the last federal election.

    How limited is their pool of new talent must be.

    And of course replacing a woman with a man will do wonders for their gender balance.

  21. Spray

    Again I will repeat. The MSM has been feral over the past few weeks. In particular, the media and commentators in NSW.
    It has been pathetic and disgraceful.

    I am entitled to hold this view.

    I am not casting aspersions on individual
    People on this blog.

    I dont understand why you are feeling personally slighted by this.

  22. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1140 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:04 am

    sprocket_ @ #1137 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 7:59 am

    18/07/2020|1min from SkyNews..

    There are reports former prime minister Tony Abbott is being encouraged to return to federal politics. The Daily Telegraph has reported senior members of the Liberal Party’s right faction want Mr Abbott to run for the seat of Parramatta. It’s understood the seat could be up for grabs with speculation long-serving Labor MP Julie Owens may retire. The Daily Telegraph says Mr Abbott declined the offer, according to a Liberal source. Mr Abbott has been out of politics since losing his seat of Warringah to independent Zali Steggal at the last federal election.

    How limited is their pool of new talent must be.

    And of course replacing a woman with a man will do wonders for their gender balance.

    Why does the Liberal party want new talent?
    Scrooter’s got another 10 years to go then Highpants gets a go.
    Plenty of time yet.

  23. Victoria @ #1145 Sunday, July 19th, 2020 – 10:06 am

    Spray

    Again I will repeat. The MSM has been feral over the past few weeks. In particular, the media and commentators in NSW.
    It has been pathetic and disgraceful.

    I am entitled to hold this view.

    I am not casting aspersions on individual
    People on this blog.

    I dont understand why you are feeling personally slighted by this.

    I’m not. Good luck down there. Hope the decline in new cases yesterday is a good sign.

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