Beneath this post is the latest offering from Adrian Beaumont on the polling picture in the United States ahead of the November presidential election. Closer to home, a few items of poll-related news:
• Pollster JWS Research has published results of its occasional True Issues survey, in which respondents are prompted to identify the five most important issues from a list of 20. The key changes since the last survey in February are a 17% increase for the economy and finances to 52% and an 11% drop in environment and climate change to 31%. The result for health issues has in fact changed little over recent surveys, although it has gained the top spot in the latest survey with a three point increase to 56%, overtaking cost of living which is down six to 53%. Interestingly, defence, security and terrorism is up six to 26%, which I take to reflect growing nervousness about China. Various other questions on COVID-19 are also featured, including findings that satisfaction with federal and state government performance is at record highs, with both scoring 19% for very good and 39% for good. The report notes that strongest results for state governments were recorded in Western Australia (83% combined very good and good) and the weakest were in Victoria (57%), although this is going off small sub-samples. The poll was conducted July 1 to 5 from a sample of 1000, just as the breakout in Victoria was beginning to gather pace.
• The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare has published the National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019, in which 22,274 respondents were surveyed by Roy Morgan between April and September 2019 about their use of and attitudes towards illegal drugs. On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.
• Kevin Bonham offers an interesting look at the unweighted data on voting intention that Essential Research effectively provides in its otherwise voting intention-less poll results, by way of identifying the size of the subsamples in its survey question breakdowns (for example, in the latest polls you can see from the “base” rows in the tables breaking down responses by voting intention that the sample included 299 Labor voters, 420 for the Coalition and 108 for the Greens). Notwithstanding the lack of weighting, the results paint an intuitively plausible picture of collapsing government support at the time of the bushfires, a reset when COVID-19 first reared its head, and an ongoing surge in Coalition support on the back of its support packages and the largely successful efforts to suppress the virus. These movements are considerably more variable than anything recorded by Newspoll, which has maintained the unnatural stability that was its hallmark before the 2019 election, despite its methodological overhaul.
Some wash-up from the Eden-Monaro by-election:
• John Black, former Labor Senator and now executive director of Australian Development Strategies, offered an ecological analysis of voting patterns in the Eden-Monaro by-election in The Australian on Monday. This pointed to a strong age-related effect in which older areas swung Labor and younger areas swung Liberal. Labor-swinging areas were also low-income with large accommodation and food industry workforces, while Liberal-swinging areas were white-collar and with high levels of employment in public administration. None of this would surprise students of the electorate and the result, given the Liberal swing in Queanbeyan and the Labor swing along the coast.
• Counting in the by-election is nearly complete, with today being the last day that postal votes received will be entered in the count. The latest results are continuing to be updated as they come through on my live results page. With probably a couple of dozen postals to be entered in the count, Labor holds a lead of 764. Of remaining interest will be the distribution of preferences, presumably to be conducted early next week, which will offer some insight into exactly how many Nationals and Shooters preferences flowed to Labor – contentious subjects both on the conservative side of politics.
Meanwhile across the pond:
• Roy Morgan published a New Zealand voting intention poll this week that was shortly overtaken by events, with the conservative opposition National Party experiencing its second leadership change in two months earlier in the week. The poll had Labor down two points from the previous poll in May to 54.5%, National up half a point to 27%, the Greens up two to 9%, Act New Zealand up 1.5% to a new peak of 5%, and New Zealand First apparently headed towards extinction with a one point drop to 1.5%. The poll was conducted by phone from a sample of 879, but all we are told of the field work period is that it was conducted during June.
• Concurrent with the New Zealand election on September 19 will be a non-binding referendum on cannabis legalisation. Poll results on this question are all over the shop: one poll last month, by Colmar Brunton, had 40% for and 49% against, while another, by Horizon Research, had 56% for and 43% against.
Yep. In a nutshell
Phillip Lodge
@phlogga
nswsrecklessly opens up pubs, clubs and bars without regard to consequences of just one infected person having a night out and bingo, gotcha. Suddenly it’s Victoria’s fault. There were no bans on Victorians being in NSW and the bloke was not aware he was infected. Dan’s fault? BS
8:52 AM · Jul 17, 2020·Twitter Web App
3
Likes
Some items appear to be missing as an addition to the chart shown below 👇👇👇👇👇
(a) Severe ratbaggery – possibly as a result of a pre-condition.
(b) Hiding under a doona – simple preventive measure against (a) and also Covid-19.
Avoid these creatures. Possible alien killers or tax claw back collectors from the current Gummint.
lizzie @ #36 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 8:44 am
He’s going to announce the first Space Patrol astronauts?
I think he’s been watching too much TV then. 😉
Re Frednk @8:56.
Maybe it’s like the ”illegal dinner party” attended by health workers in NW Tasmania when there was a worrying outbreak in that part of the country. Never happened.
Just thinking back to then, I don’t recall shrill attacks on the Premier of Tasmania at the time, blaming him for this. Accountability only applies to Labor.
Of course, we should take anything on the internet (including the big media organizations) with a grain of salt.
Are people really this desperate ? or stupid ?
Kay Jay, I was a little bit disappointed in the Alien attack dog last night. A little bit low-tech looking IMO.
C@tmomma,
I don’t think even International Rescue can save Trump.
Lady Penelope Creighton-Ward may keep Trump distracted for a goodly time
#ETTD
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/us/elections/biden-vs-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Where the Labor documents were found. Any link to the 3 roosters of old?
https://www.bing.com/images/blob?bcid=Sxmkun92t5ABwA
Scott @ #24 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 8:24 am
That’s more or less what Shorten did with his Town Halls. In retrospect it doesn’t seem that it helped much. I thought it was a good idea at the time but results did not bear out the optimism
KayJay
Ah, the War of the World critters!
Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.
nath @ #55 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:13 am
There are eight episodes. Whether this completes the project I remain clueless (big surprise). I suspect that the episodes may run for the rest of time. 😮
nath @ #49 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:06 am
And? It’s not like you are telling us something we didn’t already know from reading the Dawn Patrol.
Confessions @ #58 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:21 am
Sounds like Scott Morrison’s ‘Group’ of political operatives.
Anyway, Chris Christie still lost New Jersey to a Democrat at the next election. 🙂
‘fess, did you listen to the latest Bulwark podcast with Tim Miller? Apparently, Brad Parscale is still there to enable the Trump Family grift.
BK @ #22 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:28 am
I have been mildly reprimanded for the use of the word “critters” and although I like the word have since refrained.
Are you in training for your cricket comeback when circumstances permit ❓ 🏏
C@t:
Thanks, I’ll listen to it later.
I’ve previously posted commentary about the Trump campaign simply being a vehicle to funnel money to The Family, in particular Rick Wilson who has said all along that Parscale’s role isn’t so much to manage the re-election campaign but to ensure the money funnel continues.
Jaeger @ #56 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:17 am
I don’t think even these guys can save Donald Trump! 😆
@Cat – note with PawPatrol – there’s one female dog (and they’ve shoved her down back in the promotional poster)…
I never knew what a bank “bail-in” is until reading this article:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/coronavirus-crisis-heightens-fears-bank-deposits-could-be-wiped/12458462
I hope it doesn’t result in a run on the banks.
Alpha Zero @ #68 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 9:38 am
But she can fly. 😉
Re Victoria @8:17.
Research suggests the coronavirus pandemic’s greatest impact is due to people changing their behaviour voluntarily. So we may be overestimating the costs of government restrictions.
The impacts would be patchy.
– travel, holiday accommodation –> near 0
– pubs, clubs, restaurants –> near 0
– food, household – little impact
– petrol, automotive – way down
– maintenance and repairs – essential only
– books, electronic – about the same, maybe up- utilities – more household, less commercial – about the same all up?
and so on down the list. Some areas shut down, others carry on, some increase.
Will PotatoHead start saying something nice about the Palaszczuk success in Qld?
Maybe Morrison will start singing the praises of the Labor pandemic elimination success in the Sunshine State?
Surely the Murdoch organs will have their congaline of toadies point out how to deal with a pandemic, open up borders in a controlled fashion, and bring forward the sporting pursuits enjoyed by millions of their readers/viewers? (Well thousands at least)
“No new cases have been recorded in Queensland overnight, keeping the state’s active cases at four and total confirmed cases at 1071.
It comes as more sporting codes shift their teams to the Sunshine State, with all Supercars teams also based on the Gold Coast ahead of next month’s Triple Crown in Darwin.
Premier Annastasia Palaszczuk tweeted it was a “boost for Queensland’s tourism industry and small business” and meant the 2020 Championship could continue. Strict quarantine protocols and management plans will be in place, she said.
All AFL teams are also now moving to Queensland for the remainder of the season, with the majority based on the Gold Coast
T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
7️⃣
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Los Angeles, CA: cops knocking a guy out of his wheelchair and then breaking it into multiple pieces for sport while others manhandle him, as yet another shoves a woman to the ground with his baton
14 July 2020
T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
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6h
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New York City, NY: how many NYPD cops does it take to manhandle one woman?
Thinking face
I count 4
Where is boewar ? eh ?
From Melbourne 9 news reporter ..
“Am told today’s Victorian Covid-19 numbers are not good. More info expected later this morning.”
“On the latter count, it found a plurality in favour of legalising cannabis for the first time, with 41% supportive and 37% opposed, with support having risen from 21% since 2007. It also found 57% support for allowing pill testing with 27% opposed.”
***
Wonderful to see this support for two very important Greens’ policies. There really is no reason at all for marijuana to remain illegal while two far more destructive drugs, alcohol and nicotine, are legal. If you’ve ever had just one sip of alcohol you’ve already taken a far more dangerous drug than marijuana.
Furthermore, the legalisation of marijuana will create a new industry of significant size at a time when the country is desperately looking for new jobs to put all the recently unemployed into. New workers will be needed all along the production line, from farmers to grow it all the way to the retail shop assistants who will sell it.
Pill testing is just common-sense and will save countless young lives by stopping many from taking something which could kill them.
Are you in training for your cricket comeback when circumstances permit ❓
______
KayJay
The only training I am in is exercising self-control and responsibility!
Scott says:
Friday, July 17, 2020 at 7:21 am
The nice approach has failed and will not work , the public is too gullible and favours the side of politics which attacks
You’ve clearly never gone door-knocking and asked voters what they think/feel about politics. If you had, you know that a very frequently-expressed view is that the ‘fighting’ in Parliament and the media really alienates voters. They mostly deeply dislike it. They liken scrapping politicians to toddlers throwing tantrums. They reckon it treats voters with a lack of respect, that it takes them for idiots.
The reflexive reaction of most voters, when presented with a political fight scene, is to look away. They tune out. It’s very difficult to get the attention of voters at all. It’s impossible to keep that attention if the content of political display is a fight. Voters will turn away in disgust. They will recoil from the authors of the spectacle and they will vote against them.
If Labor wants to win the attention and support of voters it will have to write and sell positive themes.
What if the cops catch me on a run less than 21.1km from home?
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/lockeddown-victorians-to-pay-if-they-stray-from-home/news-story/f65b0276d7e0c8cbe614de357060ef3b
Up to now, us exercise freaks have enjoyed the freedom of the trails here in Melbourne.
I’d be avoiding the Moonee Ponds Creek Trail at the moment for sure…
KayJay
Despite his denials I have photographic evidence that he is in training . Fear not though,wher e BK is training they observe the strictest of ‘social isolation’ rules .
KayKay
That is an invasion of privacy!
Ch9 saying Vic new cases ‘above 400’
It’s also John Lennon
http://www.beatlesarchive.net/john-lennon-playing-cricket.html
Sprocket
I’ve heard 500+
Stage 4 … forget it … try Stage 5 …
Poroti
A biased, racist, sexist, pro business, pro corruption, over opinionated MSM does have the support of enough biased, racist, sexist, pro business, pro corruption, over opinionated voters to gain enough votes to form government.
A catastrophe generally overthrows a third world government. Welcome to the third world of Morrison, Taylor, Joyce, Cash, Hunt, Dutton, Frydenberg, Robert……Robb.
BK from your earlier post ‘Following this case Aiden Regan says that until the EU tackles tax avoidance, big companies will keep getting away with it.’
Who would have thought?
Just saw a infectious diseases doctor (Aaron something?) talking sensibly about elimination/suppression. To wit, our behaviours would be the same either way, so go for elimination.
I was thinking how poorly serviced we are During these pandemic times to have aa fellow with a background in marketing running the place rather than an expert in infectious medicine.
Covid data reporting NSW 8, Vic 428
Tim Smith gloating that he has something negative to say, but no care for the community.
Shellbell
769 cases in Victoria
PeeBee
From the early days the use of the word”elimination” was almost blasphemous v as far as Scrott and the national leadership went. We will never officially adopt it as an aim as to do so would be to admit Scrott and crew got it wRONg !
Sutton forecast a further rise before this week would peak. I wish people would stop panicking (people = all the opposition and LNP).
lizzie @ #91 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 10:49 am
Gee Mundo is glad Labor has not politicised the situation.
Labor is so much better than that.
Better I tells ta!!!!
Oh, and the Media, all slavering about the figures.
Kakuru thinks Mundo is better than that. But Kakuru could be wrong.
PeeBee @ #89 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 10:43 am
‘I was thinking how poorly serviced we are During these pandemic times to have aa fellow with a background in marketing running the place rather than an expert in infectious medicine.’ My Albanese said this morning.
Kakuru @ #97 Friday, July 17th, 2020 – 10:55 am
Cuckoo is wrong.
Wrong I tells ya!!