No Newspoll this week, a three week schedule clearly being the deal now; presumably Essential Research will be along tomorrow morning, hopefully inclusive of the monthly leadership ratings (voting intention apparently being too much to ask). Beyond that, there is the following to relate:
• Mathias Cormann’s recent announcement that he will quit politics at the end of the year leaves the Western Australian Liberals with a Senate vacancy to fill. The West Australian ($) has identified three potential preselection nominees: Sam Calabrese, the state party director; Joe Francis, a minister in Colin Barnett’s government who lost his seat at the 2017 election; and Sherry Sufi, a party activist whose radicalism caused him to be dumped as candidate for Fremantle in 2016, but apparently times have changed. Also named initially was Paul Everingham, chief executive of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, but he told the paper ($) on the weekend that he had decided not to run.
• The Sunday News Corp tabloids ($) reported on a YouGov poll on republicanism, which I’m guessing was commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement, because it posed the softball question of whether respondents wanted an “Australian as our head of state”. Put thus, the question reliably receives a favourable response, in this case 52% yes, 32% no and 16% don’t know. The poll was conducted from a large sample of “nearly 4500”, on field work dates not identified.
• Below is a podcast from Ben Raue of the Tally Room in which he and I discuss the Eden-Monaro by-election and looming federal redistributions.
SNIP
OK, no worries then.
The Dividend Imputation policy change was ugly for Labor in that it allowed the Liberals to spin yet another scare campaign about Labor coming to get all the oldies hoarded loot…….What was the killer was the comment that if the oldies did not like it, they could vote Liberal – which, clearly, quite a few did. However, the mood in Queensland was much wider and had much more impact than the impact of the DI mooted change……………………….Bowen’s throw away line would rank of one of the more stupid in the history of Labor….along side Hawke’s, “No child will ever in poverty again…………..” (wtte) rubbish that many years ago………………………………………
p
Yep.
Fighting losing wars for decades, and on tick, generally goes into the negative column of will it, or will it not, survive!
There is an interesting divergence, IMO.
IMO, the Soviet military essentially parted way with the Soviet autocracy – at least partly as a direct result of being sent into Afghanistan for ten years to fight a losing war.
Currently the impact of Trump’s boorish behaviour towards military heros, military alliances, families of the military casualties, the Kurds, etc, etc, etc is having the reverse impact. IMO, the US military is currently a major bulwark for democracy in the US.
In China, IMO, the links between the military and the Civil are also robust.
Player One @ #698 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:25 pm
I can admit my limitations.
How about you?
boerwar @ #689 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:17 pm
Me either. That’s one reason I found it so interesting. It seems Amalrik had the misfortune to die at just the wrong time – the other dissidents went on to make names for themselves in the west, but it seems Amalrik was the only one who actually got it right!
Why would the crap thrown at Andrews bother him- he is making life and death decisions every hour. He has the economic future of the state in his hands. Why would he sweat over the noise of Twitter or Facebook, or Dutton or the CPG?
Tricot @ #703 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:29 pm
More importantly it gave them an excuse to talk about Labor, rather than defend their own record.
Greensborough Growler @ #705 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:30 pm
Sure. When I find one, I’ll be sure to let you know 🙂
Torchbearer………………..The point I did not make well enough, was that Andrews looked entirely on top of the task. I compare this with the shifty look (to my eyes) and the shop-worn look of Morrison at the moment………………….However, as a caveat, the 10 second snipped on free to air TV is not one of the best means of making more than passing comment…..
boerwar
John Eliot left the house long ago,
I agree with your comment Tricot.
Basically Labor lost because it had an extremely unpopular leader and a confusing policy platform which the Liberals mercilessly distorted.
The Sawford formula predicted a Liberal return too!
Ironically dividend imputation will ultimately be wound back – most likely under a Liberal Government but in a more politically saleable way eg the first $50,000 in credits can be claimed back etc.
What comes around goes around- Hayden was destroyed in 1980 on CGT yet 5 years later it came in – largely because Labor had an extremely popular leader in Hawke.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 7:28 pm
The two changes that must occur is that 6, 6,6 at Centre bounces and point scores.
No marks if you play back in your defensive half. It’s paly on.
………………………………
Your second suggestion, together with increasing the length of kick to 25m, IMO is essential.
Your first suggestion won’t work. Waiting for teams to get their players back into position after a point would be very boring, tho the advertisers would like it.
Greensborough Growler @ #700 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:28 pm
The comment you’re referring to links straight to the source. 🙄
Lazy questions get lazy answers.
Player One @ #710 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:32 pm
mate,
Your limitations are well known on this blog.
Maybe time for you to escape to a Centrelink wonderland.
Cheers.
GG, that’s pretty much the ball game isn’t it? I’m somewhat swayed by the argument that split in two the territory seats could go either way but right now the safest bet is to hand just one to Labor.
Given the offhand dismissal of a voice to Parliament it does seem like yet another blow, abolishing a seat with such a large proportion of Aboriginal voters. It wouldn’t at all compensate for those voices that remain unheard and let’s face it if they elected a Labor member that voice probably wouldn’t be heard outside the ALP party room. Still having at least a chance of electing a noisy independent or perhaps even a minister in a major party would be healthy for the outback Territorians. Perhaps a bit of a listening drive by the AEC to find ways of enrolling a greater proportion of the population could also help them save their seat. Mackerras’ argument was using enrollment numbers to show their lack of underrepresentation but this argument could be blunted were enrollment more successful. I don’t really know whether it’s lack of engagement or technical issues with remote addresses or something easily soluble that’s suppressing enrollment. Hopefully it’s not just because nobody cares.
P1
The idea of picking an unlikely end point and then working out events, trends and personalities that might get us there is interesting and useful, IMO.
I speed read your link and it seems to me that Amalrik himself actually missed some of key elements of what was about to happen.
The USSR as empire has gone.
However the USSR as Russian regime seems to reverting to the norm.
The way in which the US is an empire is quite different from that of Russia.
How that might unravel is interesting.
Will it lose control of the world’s reserve currency, for example.
Will it come to the core of Australia’s dilemma – that US military might (still incomparably greater than that of China) cannot deliver trade fairness between Australia and China. While this is an existential problem for Australia it is also a massive problem for the US system of military and trading alliances.
What price the EU after Putin and Boris do their worst?
To me the ultimate disruptor that we already know about and about which we are refusing to leave our comfort zone on (qua Amalrik’s comfort zones) is global warming.
‘poroti says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:34 pm
boerwar
John Eliot left the house long ago,’
True. But they will not be slaying is ghost until they win a flag.
Still, the Blues are lucky. We still have Mouth from the South Kennett.
Barney………agree with this………….I tried very hard with our local member (Labor) in November to see what a blunder Labor was making here. I got a nice reply from him….trotting out the Labor line.
In the election campaign I tried again……………..with a Labor candidate for a another seat (which she did not go on and win) who looked through me as though I was invisible. She trotted out the Labor talking points for the day and I kind of thought if this was the best Labor could do, the Labor was in a spot of bother. At the latter time, I think Labor thought they had the election in the bag and had stopped listening to other then the snake oil, as it turned out to be, of the Newspoll ratings…………………………..
a r @ #715 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:36 pm
Windhover @ #714 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:35 pm
Free kicking in front of goal would focus some minds imho.
Greensborough Growler @ #715 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:36 pm
So, more infantile snark instead of an argument? All because you insist on responding to a post without actually bothering to try and understand it, as seems to be your wont?
Why am I not surprised?
poroti:
[‘Andrews gives me many mixed feelings’]
I like the man. He’s not a BS artist. And going by the last election, so do most Victorians. While he’s no Whitlam, he has potential.
boerwar
A night to remember from Mr Fisk 🙂
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/9-11-osama-bin-laden-interview-robert-fisk-world-trade-center-attack-al-qaeda-terror-a8532256.html
Player One @ #722 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:39 pm
Goodness, the Queen of PB snark whinging that no one takes her seriously.
Remind me, who won the EM by election?
p
Yes, well. Good pick up!
The Romans thought that hiring the Huns and training them to fight a bit better would work out alright in the end as well.
Lars von Trier?
Where is Lars and what have you done to him?
Mavis
“He’s not a BS artist.” . That is my fave part of my impression of him. Even if I do not agree with something he says I treasure that I do not think I am being bullshitted to.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:42 pm
______________________
EM was a magnificent Labor win! Presaging a thumping Labor win in 2022. Just like Bass 1975 and Canberra 1996.
I love how you cravenly came out the week after the by election to claim bragging rights. Profiles in courage!
boerwar @ #717 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:37 pm
Sure, he got some details wrong – he actually got the date wrong by something like 8 years – but I think you are underestimating his success – he (apparently) predicted the demise of Soviet Russia in the 70’s. Long before anyone else. Also, he got the mechanism of its demise correct.
Perhaps this was just luck. But predicting the demise later should have been easy-peasy. And yet, very few people did so.
Lars………I agree in part with you……………….The DI issue is ripe for amendment but it should be done gradually with plenty of warning. I am not sure that Shorten was “unpopular” it was just he did not cut through……..Despite the malice shown to him here by one or two ratbags here, Shorten was no better/worse than many other politicians. People have memory blanks with Shorten forgetting he came preciously close in the previous election to becoming PM……..It is laughable when some stirrers here suggest he is waiting in the wings to somehow become leader again. For better for worse, two stabs at PM is about as many as anyone can expect….That does not mean he should be on the scrap heap, but it does mean Labor has to look for a younger and more dynamic leader. Much as I hate to admit it, I don’t think Albo is the answere. However, with the economy about to drop into a bucket, who knows what the Oz electorate will do……………………….
@Barney
Labor is still pretty weak, they need to return to negative campaigning.
Jobs at Risk.
Health at Risk.
Life at Risk.
For real?
suemazzy
@suemazzy1
·
2h
9 Sydney news- reporter hearing the govt really doesn’t want to go back to lockdown & with just 21 cases out of a city of 6 million & we’ve spent millions on ICU beds ……
Woman shrugging now how comforting is that NSW
#covidnsw #auspol
Lars Von Trier @ #729 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:47 pm
You know this sort of personal abuse commentary never works out well for you, don’t you?
For fans of US politics, the Election Whisperer. A Democrat operative interviews Rick Wilson on electioneering tactics…
https://youtu.be/n-FR_7ivu_k
No Tricot, Shorten was deeply unpopular. 2016 was because Turnbull was such a hopeless campaigner and Shorten wasn’t expected to win.
Albo deserves a go – but not sure he will be given it. There is no credible alternative atm.
If I receive $50k franking credits tax free, that would be on top of $167k tax free income. My accountant/super fund has already outdone themselves. For everyone else that is still having to go to work and paying a hefty rate of tax on that kind of income, the $50k cap suggested by Lars would have to seem somewhat superfluous. It’s barely an incentive to pay one’s accountant an extra hour of toil.
Apologies if your sarcasm just flew right over my head Lars.
L’arse wrote:
And it’s all true!
It’s taken a week or so, but L’arsey finally gets it.
Zerlo @ #731 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:49 pm
So, we’ve had 3 successive shit Coalition Governments and they have never had to defend their record and actions at an election because they turn it into being all about Labor.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:53 pm
L’arse wrote:
EM was a magnificent Labor win! Presaging a thumping Labor win in 2022. Just like Bass 1975 and Canberra 1996.
And it’s all true!
It’s taken a week or so, but L’arsey finally gets it.
____________________________-
Oh look no women for BB to bully so he comes on and calls me names!
P1
I agree that he was impressive.
What I was trying to get across is that Amalrik’s technique of picking an end date and a change state and working backwards has large potential margins of error.
One difficulty is a tendency to think/understand from analogy.
Another is that large stochastic events can happen – the pandemic – but which are difficult to time if the discussion is about what might happen within one or two generations. The Virus was one of a list of predictions I made when I was 20.
Another is how emerging technologies might change control/freedom equations.
Emerging technologies are turning several US citizens into trillionaires and are pushing 1.4 billion Chinese into a draconian Big Brother situation.
brett says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:53 pm
_____________________-
Thats factually incorrect – kind of explains why dividend imputation policy was such a dumb idea politically if you don’t understand it.
How many sixes did Sir Donald Bradman hit in his test career?. No googling.
bill @ #742 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:00 pm
Very few.
bill @ #742 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 9:00 pm
Not many.
He always hit it on the ground.
Apparently, you can never be caught that way.
Well perhaps I don’t understand your imputation policy. How much tax did you pay and how much income would you have earned to have hit the 50k cap? It should be easy to explain.
Historyintime says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 8:02 pm
“While I think Victoria has been unlucky, there are also nagging doubts. Were the security guards mismanaged? Did Andrews’ rather pompous and moralistic approach have perverse consequences? Was there an element of political correctness in play which distorted the approach to ethnic and religious communities?”
Love your questions. Here are the answers:-
1. We will have to await the enquire findings.
2. Nfi what you are referring to. Please provide particulars of what YOU allege amounted to “rather pompous and moralistic approach”. He strikes me as earnest, caring and always thanking all for following the restrictions. When you do provide particulars try working out how your causal nexus even begins to work.
3. Again, what do YOU mean by PC? When identified try explaining how it could possibly have distorted the approach to ethnic, religious communities to make your question remotely interesting.
But you go on . . .
“That aside, things fucked up on his watch, so fair or not, he is accountable. ‘
………………………………….
Of course Andrews is accountable. He is the premier and he has expressly stated he is responsible. What being accountable means is that he continues to act in the best interest of all Victorians in responding.
Blaming him for the breakout is a completely different matter. It is not enough to say “shit happened on my watch so I am to blame”. If that were the case Scomo would also bear blame. Actually, as the PM who has not lead the nation to elimination, and told us all to pop out from under the doona (maybe distorting the message to ethnic, religious communities), perhaps he should be blamed.
And you end . . .
‘Personally, I am angry that what happened in Victoria might seep through to Queensland, and do not want to give Andrews the benefit of the doubt.’
Before you consider giving anyone the benefit of the doubt you need to have some evidence, maybe even a prima facie case. At the moment all you have is partisan bilge dressed as questions of interest.
Bushfire Bill @ #737 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:53 pm
Yep, a win is a win is a win.
Barney
It’s not Labor by any means, it’s the same thing happening in USA at present.
Trump, GOP, Media, Rich folks.
ScottyFromMarketting, Liberals+Nats+OneNation+Palmer, Media, Rich folks.
Thanks sprocket. Bookmarked to listen to later.
Here you go Brett , from the ATO website:
Eligibility for a refund
You are eligible for a refund of excess franking credits if all of the following apply.
You receive franked dividends, on or after 1 July 2000, either directly or through a trust or partnership.
Your basic tax liability is less than your franking credits, after taking into account any other tax offsets you are entitled to.
You meet our anti-avoidance rules, which are designed to ensure everyone pays their fair share of tax.