No Newspoll this week, a three week schedule clearly being the deal now; presumably Essential Research will be along tomorrow morning, hopefully inclusive of the monthly leadership ratings (voting intention apparently being too much to ask). Beyond that, there is the following to relate:
• Mathias Cormann’s recent announcement that he will quit politics at the end of the year leaves the Western Australian Liberals with a Senate vacancy to fill. The West Australian ($) has identified three potential preselection nominees: Sam Calabrese, the state party director; Joe Francis, a minister in Colin Barnett’s government who lost his seat at the 2017 election; and Sherry Sufi, a party activist whose radicalism caused him to be dumped as candidate for Fremantle in 2016, but apparently times have changed. Also named initially was Paul Everingham, chief executive of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, but he told the paper ($) on the weekend that he had decided not to run.
• The Sunday News Corp tabloids ($) reported on a YouGov poll on republicanism, which I’m guessing was commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement, because it posed the softball question of whether respondents wanted an “Australian as our head of state”. Put thus, the question reliably receives a favourable response, in this case 52% yes, 32% no and 16% don’t know. The poll was conducted from a large sample of “nearly 4500”, on field work dates not identified.
• Below is a podcast from Ben Raue of the Tally Room in which he and I discuss the Eden-Monaro by-election and looming federal redistributions.
Justin Warren ⬡
@jpwarren
·
13m
Who wants to see the AFP National Guideline on information security (NAT18001) I just obtained via FOI? Here you go:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZjsA8qSP4nGZhia169luxBuFsEZuydfJ/view
‘shellbell says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 7:17 pm
BW
Longmire too.
Been a while since we have played interesting football.
All we seem to produce are defenders who secure high numbers of possessions’
I am not sure about Sydney but the Hawks approach of trading off the future to fill ever-widening holes seems finally to be unraveling.
IMO, Clarkson is partially a victim of his own success with numerous clubs now having peeps in coaching roles who once either played for Hawthorn or who had junior coaching roles in Hawthorn.
That said I was looking forward to the footy to help me through what is a personally challenging year. A once beautiful game has been trashed, IMO. I can hardly bear to watch a game any more.
bill
We should all try to do that.
Those who demonise Andrews really need to take stock. Not only does he have more gravitas than most other leaders, he also has the smarts to realise that what’s happening in Vic at the moment could easily be replicated in NSW and Queensland, the latter of which approved 314,000 permits to enter the state, many of them for the utilitarian purpose of visiting theme parks on the Gold and Sunny Coasts. I’m not sure the authorities’ message is resonating – like seeing Morrison at a Shark’s game on the weekend, clearly in breach of the SD rules.
boerwar @ #651 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:22 pm
The blues were a pleasure to watch last night but in general yes the AFL have allowed the coaches to ruin the spectacle.
NRL fans are fortunate they have Vlandys.
For those with a view on whether C19 started in China or not.
I strongly suggest a bit of reading between the lines. IMO, WHO, which does some excellent work for people who need it most, is trashing itself on C19 and the Xi connection.
http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0713/c90000-9709704.html
Is the government trying to head off class action against robodebt?
Menzies house to the rescue, sort of. Until Deb O’Neill puts the boot in.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2020/jul/13/liberal-thinktank-submission-on-class-actions-labelled-an-undergraduate-essay-that-would-fail
Greensborough Growler @ #604 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:27 pm
Depends. If the point was to establish the source of that quote as not being a complete right-wing hack, and those remarks crediting Labor for their tax policies were made before the election outcome was known (and without sarcasm), then it would tend to do that. Even in July 2020.
shellbell @ #650 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:17 pm
Longmire’s coaching on the weekend was to reduce the margin of the loss.
The two changes that must occur is that 6, 6,6 at Centre bounces and point scores.
No marks if you play back in your defensive half. It’s paly on.
Mavis @ #653 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:24 pm
My instinct is that Andrews will be ruthless from now on in even if it costs him the leadership.
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
The NewsCorp formula for fmr PMs: Shut up about Murdoch’s abuses of power and you’ll be rewarded with positive puff like Gillard and Abbott. Speak out, like Turnbull and me, and they come after you with a rolling campaign of delegitimisation. Sorry Rupert, still not interested.
Greensborough Growler @ #658 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:28 pm
I fully support GG’s policy proposition.
Being from QLD I’m a bit slow on the take up. What’s the big deal about the picture of the NSW Premier in a meeting?
GG
I would be happy for them to try something fairly drastic.
What about rules around holding the ball, unloading the ball, pushes in the back and the like?
The Lincoln Project – One Day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOubhy4Ss3c
‘davidwh says:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 7:30 pm
Being from QLD I’m a bit slow on the take up. What’s the big deal about the picture of the NSW Premier in a meeting?’
She just saw a Victorian.
Kick it up the gut’s to a marking full-forward. This bullshit zone crap and tippy-tappy is doing my head in.
Definitely worth watching!
BW that makes sense.
a r @ #658 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:26 pm
So, you can’t answer the question asked.
But, can certainly crap on.
Turtle Bowen’s reducing the CGT concession was good politics and policy. Unfortunately he blew it with dividend imputation.
I hope Albo doesn’t can the CGT changes – but it does seem like they are going for zerlo target.
Why Trump loves to sue (CNN):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqN6zSoknCQ
It would be very interesting to have a bit more knowledge about how the sample was put together.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jul/13/heart-scans-of-covid-19-patients-show-range-of-abnormalities
boerwar @ #664 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:32 pm
They are all subjective and you cancrank it up or down from time totime.
My team, Carlton played a very “go forward” game on Sunday and have enlivened the competition.
The problem is the old coaches stultify the game to minimise the margin of losses as do the new coaches.
Key forwards and a run on game plan will win this year.
Time to get rid of Clarkson, Longmire and Buckley.
In case anyone is interested, here is some more about Andrei Amalrik, the man who fairly accurately predicted the demise of Soviet Russia, decades before it actually happened:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2020-06-30/how-great-power-falls-apart
The application of his theories to modern-day USA do indeed make one wonder … are we perhaps witnessing the beginning of the end of yet another great power?
My team is the Hawks.
I do wish they had got rid of Buckley before the last game.
GG, where will there be a place for the Lockett’s, Dunstall’s ,Modra or Ablett. These are players that are remembered. The current bunch are forgettable.
bill @ #677 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:49 pm
The kids are doing it for themselves.
As good a group coming through as ever.
All they have to do is challenge the rubbish the longterm coaches use to control the game.
Carlton is the start. But there are other teams like Brisbane and Fremantle that will emerge throughout the year.
Rex, my instinct is that Andrews will emerge unscathed. I think he’s very impressive.
Player One @ #675 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:46 pm
Yes and no. But, not just yet.
What are the NT’s chances of securing their 2nd seat via private member’s bill? I noticed many submissions for, but a killer blow from Mackerras.
I’m guessing there’s no hope of much being considered by this Parliament given its dearth of sitting days but does the government still harbour hopes of winning a seat in the NT?
Apologies if this has already been done to death.
“Those who demonise Andrews really need to take stock. Not only does he have more gravitas than most other leaders, he also has the smarts to realise that what’s happening in Vic at the moment could easily be replicated in NSW and Queensland”
While I think Victoria has been unlucky, there are also nagging doubts. Were the security guards mismanaged? Did Andrews’ rather pompous and moralistic approach have perverse consequences? Was there an element of political correctness in play which distorted the approach to ethnic and religious communities?
That aside, things fucked up on his watch, so fair or not, he is accountable. Personally, I am angry that what happened in Victoria might seep through to Queensland, and do not want to give Andrews the benefit of the doubt.
Mavis
Andrews gives me many mixed feelings. There is much I do not like but there is much that I think is ‘worth bottling’ . On the whole the ‘worth bottling’ is winning 🙂 A particular ‘like’ is his language, it does not feel like I am listening to a MkII PR Pollie Bot .
brett @ #686 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 6:01 pm
I doubt this would get up because at the moment Labor is losing a seat, so why would the Government support giving it back?
Greensborough Growler @ #680 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:57 pm
The point is that – apart from a few clever people like Amalrik – we generally only realize the truth in hindsight.
The signs that Amalrik identified as indicators of the demise of Soviet Russia – i.e. the “comfort cult” – are quite evident in modern day USA.
Also, for that matter, in a few other places … such as here in Australia 🙁
Historyintime @ #682 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:02 pm
At the end of the day, your personal Liberal prejudices will rise to the cause.
Your just a Timmy with special pontification.
Lars Von Trier:
Monday, July 13, 2020 at 7:35 pm
Hi, Lars:
[‘.. he blew it with dividend imputation.’]
I think he did, giving rise to three years of Morrison, his cronies.
GG, you lost me when you said ‘Carlton was the start’
I thought, well, there is no future..
I had a series of discussions about the future of the Soviet Union with some fairly cluey experts at Monash University in 1983/84.
We discussed and read various dissidents. I can’t recall Amalrik being mentioned.
One of my interlocuters was certain that the USSR was doomed and that it would not last long at all.
He offered various reasons.
The one I particularly recall was Samizdat/fax machines/personal printing capacity.
The Soviets were losing control of information flows.
He was on the money.
In this respect I note two parallel but quite divergent information flow phenomena in China and the US.
In the former scarcely any of 1.4 billion Chinese citizens know what is happening in Hong Kong.
In the latter the value of information flows is terribly constrained by the capacity of social media to generate tribalism. Chinese management is centralizing. US management of information is centripetal.
There has been a school of thought around for around 15 years that US democracy is in terminal decline. IMO, the trends are not good.
One future has two competing global groups, one Chinese and one US indulging in some super form of Cold War.
As for future casting, a good start date would be to work backwards from whenever it is that 2 degrees plus is likely to arrive.
IMO very few of the current modes of state organization will survive global warming. Some of the more fragile states have already collapsed as a consequence of food riots etc, because of food shortages resulting from long term declines in winter rainfall.
Others will surely follow.
Greensborough Growler
He needs Timmy Time
SNIP
Just saw a snippet of Andrews on local Channel 9 news……He did not look as though the crap being thrown at him by Murdoch and the Libs has made one iota of difference to him. Heard Lisa Harvey (LOTO in WA) on local radio wriggling like a worm on a hook when it was put to here she flip-flopped on open the border/close the border stuff. At the end she fell back into the cliched line of “when things change so does one’s position” when pressed on the matter………………Not a good time to be in Opposition anywhere really………………
bill @ #688 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:16 pm
We’re back and this time, “No more niceness”.
Greensborough Growler @ #669 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 7:34 pm
Does Google not work for you? Should have just said so.
The quote is from March 2018, so well before the election.
But the article headline is “Labor’s proposed tax reform only adds to complexity”. So cancels out; whatever faint praise he had there, it must have been walked back elsewhere. And damned if I’m going to pay The Australian for the privilege of knowing exactly where.
boerwar
Although the decline started earlier the terminal tipping point, IMHO, of the US of A Empire’s decline was the reelecting of Dubya Bush. Osama got his wish, provoking the over reaction of the US and bleeding their treasury. As Osama told Robert Fisk many years ago , he thought such ‘bleeding the treasury’ by the Mujaheddin saw the downfall of the Soviets and he would do the same to the US of A. Six or is it a lazy seven trillion dollars pissed up against the wall later he may me right.
Did I hear ‘Pig’s Arse’ in the stillness of the night?
Greensborough Growler @ #691 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 8:21 pm
That wouldn’t normally stop you.
Bill
Plenty of days like that in SW Vic and SE of SA . Port Fairy, Portland, Robe etc so not that unusual going back over my 40 years.
Not related to climate change in my opinion.
Pig’s arse!
lol, Boerwar.