How do you solve a problem like Mathias

Jockeying begins to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate vacancy, plus a new poll of doubtful utility on the republic question.

No Newspoll this week, a three week schedule clearly being the deal now; presumably Essential Research will be along tomorrow morning, hopefully inclusive of the monthly leadership ratings (voting intention apparently being too much to ask). Beyond that, there is the following to relate:

• Mathias Cormann’s recent announcement that he will quit politics at the end of the year leaves the Western Australian Liberals with a Senate vacancy to fill. The West Australian ($) has identified three potential preselection nominees: Sam Calabrese, the state party director; Joe Francis, a minister in Colin Barnett’s government who lost his seat at the 2017 election; and Sherry Sufi, a party activist whose radicalism caused him to be dumped as candidate for Fremantle in 2016, but apparently times have changed. Also named initially was Paul Everingham, chief executive of the Chamber of Minerals and Energy, but he told the paper ($) on the weekend that he had decided not to run.

• The Sunday News Corp tabloids ($) reported on a YouGov poll on republicanism, which I’m guessing was commissioned by the Australian Republican Movement, because it posed the softball question of whether respondents wanted an “Australian as our head of state”. Put thus, the question reliably receives a favourable response, in this case 52% yes, 32% no and 16% don’t know. The poll was conducted from a large sample of “nearly 4500”, on field work dates not identified.

• Below is a podcast from Ben Raue of the Tally Room in which he and I discuss the Eden-Monaro by-election and looming federal redistributions.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

833 comments on “How do you solve a problem like Mathias”

Comments Page 11 of 17
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  1. Sweet jebus.

    This is getting more and more ridiculous.

    And all the pile on towards the Andrews govt are starting to look extremely silly.

    RAC Sydney
    @rac_sydney
    ·
    34m
    Thirty Villawood Serco guards stood down after Casula Crossroads party link
    Thirty Villawood Serco guards stood down after Casula Crossroads party link – Refugee Action…
    Around 30 Serco guards at the Villawood detention centre have been stood down to self-isolate after up to fifty Serco workers attended a Villawood manager’s party at the Casula Crossroads Hotel, the…
    refugeeaction.org.au

  2. It is a small mercy but our local Stokes rag does not seem to feature Bolt these days. It is bad enough that we have our local Liberal Party friend Paul Murray coming out with his pompous one-sided stuff without Bolt and his 5 cents worth……The West, not so long ago, was a fully syndicated off shoot of the Murdoch stable. Now, thank goodness, it is now an advertising sheet for Harvey Norman so much so that there is consideration in a name change to the Harvey Norman Bugle…….

  3. The NewsCorp formula for fmr PMs: Shut up about Murdoch's abuses of power and you'll be rewarded with positive puff like Gillard and Abbott. Speak out, like Turnbull and me, and they come after you with a rolling campaign of delegitimisation. Sorry Rupert, still not interested. pic.twitter.com/giJbAJxlFQ— Kevin Rudd (@MrKRudd) July 13, 2020

    An egomaniac in psychological decline…

  4. Redlands Mowerman @ #498 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 4:32 pm

    Australia has a new transportation option-the bandwagon.
    It has unlimited seating capacity for self righteous celebrities and rent a crowd protesters.
    Best of all it runs on the cheapest form of renewable energy known-Symbolism.

    They are collectively known as SAD. This is short for the Sky After Dark crew.

    There, fixed it for you. 😉

  5. DUAL Richmond premiership player Bachar Houli’s mother is in intensive care with COVID-19.

    The 2019 Virgin Australia AFL All-Australian shared the news on his social media accounts on Monday in the hope it might persuade more people to get tested, particularly in the Muslim community.

  6. P1’But the main point that you (and some others here) don’t seem to get is that there is very little point in endlessly slagging off at the Greens. Labor’s problems are internal to Labor, and have nothing to do with the Greens. And the solutions will have to come from Labor, and not from the Greens.’

    I think you just proved the point BW was making.

    Endlessly slagging Labor.

  7. If immunity to COVID is only temporary as recent research shows, then we can expect wave after wave of infections. Each time taking out 1% of the vumerable.

    It also means we can stop waiting for a vaccine as it will only provide protection for a short time.

  8. And this guy, under enormous pressure, still has time for maintaining his sense of humour:

    Chief Health Officer, Victoria
    @VictorianCHO

    Afternoon coffee time.

  9. ‘Victoria says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    Sweet jebus.

    This is getting more and more ridiculous.

    And all the pile on towards the Andrews govt are starting to look extremely silly.

    RAC Sydney
    @rac_sydney
    ·
    34m
    Thirty Villawood Serco guards stood down after Casula Crossroads party link
    Thirty Villawood Serco guards stood down after Casula Crossroads party link – Refugee Action…
    Around 30 Serco guards at the Villawood detention centre have been stood down to self-isolate after up to fifty Serco workers attended a Villawood manager’s party at the Casula Crossroads Hotel, the…
    refugeeaction.org.au’

    WHERE WAS THE ARMY?

  10. This is ultimately the responsibility of Dutton:

    “Thirty Villawood Serco guards stood down after Casula Crossroads party link”

  11. “Are any crowds allowed at all?

    If so, what are the rules?

    How did SfM and his Entourage comply with the rules?”

    ***

    Yes, they are now. They are very small crowds, have to spread out around the stadiums, and can only sit with their group. Frankly I don’t think we are far away from going back to the cardboard cutouts the way things are going.

  12. There are some who earnestly and even sincerely believe that the wedging done by the Greens in the last election had absolutely nothing to do with Labor’s loss of regional seats.

  13. Another nominee for a Darwin award:

    Man who believed pandemic was a hoax dies after attending ‘COVID party’

    The 30-year-old deliberately went to a gathering with an infected person to test whether the coronavirus was real.

    by Bryan Pietsch
    (Age headline)

  14. Untrained Serco guards doing the job that the ADF should have been doing?
    Hundreds of people packed in a sweaty, heaving mass?
    Where was Elliott?
    Where was Reynolds?
    Where was Morrison?
    Where was Hunt?
    Where was Berejiklian?
    What is going on?
    Where is OC?

  15. Not everyone’s an angry whinger.

    Wetherby2019
    @wetherby2019
    ·
    19m
    I’m honoured to say that my sister, an infection control nurse, was one of the many hundred nurses who spent five days at the public housing towers testing residents for COVID-19. She said that everyone involved in that process, including police, were deeply respectful …….
    ….. of the residents who universally welcomed the health workers. A personal comment about all this, too, is that police have many social roles which we don’t question in other crises. I was surprised to see the sometimes strident criticism of police presence at the towers.

    The police were assisting in the containment of the COVID-19 crisis at the towers and they seem to have done this we can be deeply grateful about. Kudos to all those front-of-line workers in the past week. What a challenge they dealt with so well Hibiscus

  16. BW

    The wedging was done by Labor.
    That’s the problem of viewing issues through a partisan lens. All the time.

  17. citizen @ #518 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 3:03 pm

    This is ultimately the responsibility of Dutton:

    “Thirty Villawood Serco guards stood down after Casula Crossroads party link”

    Lucky Scomo has a fully funded sick leave plan for people like this so they don’t show up at their 4, 5th and 6th jobs, because they need money for food.

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #492 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 4:24 pm

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I’m not a Murdoch hack or a Dan hater, but it’s common sense to hope that any new cases found in NSW can be traced to Victoria.

    It appeared a week or two ago as though NSW may have stamped out any community transmission. If the only new cases we find now can be traced to Victoria, then there’s still a fighting chance that the spread of the virus can be contained in NSW. If there was “other” community transmission, then that battle is probably lost.

    So stay calm, it’s not all state v state. Just looking for the best outcomes overall. And that includes a fervent hope that the situation in Victoria can be brought under control as soon as possible.

  19. ‘citizen says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    Another nominee for a Darwin award:

    Man who believed pandemic was a hoax dies after attending ‘COVID party’’

    He won’t be having any regrets. The family and friends who survived him might.
    The real suckers are the younger people who did not quite latch onto the way in which Covid can manifest as a neurological disorder with long-lasting neurological impacts.

  20. ‘lizzie says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    Not everyone’s an angry whinger.

    Wetherby2019
    @wetherby2019
    ·
    19m
    I’m honoured to say that my sister, an infection control nurse, was one of the many hundred nurses who spent five days at the public housing towers testing residents for COVID-19. She said that everyone involved in that process, including police, were deeply respectful …….
    ….. of the residents who universally welcomed the health workers. A personal comment about all this, too, is that police have many social roles which we don’t question in other crises. I was surprised to see the sometimes strident criticism of police presence at the towers.

    The police were assisting in the containment of the COVID-19 crisis at the towers and they seem to have done this we can be deeply grateful about. Kudos to all those front-of-line workers in the past week. What a challenge they dealt with so well Hibiscus’

    Hysterical Bandt@5.6%should apologize.

  21. Lizzie

    Angry whingers get the attention. What counts is are they correct or not?
    Labelling them angry wingers does not change the validity of their points.

    I posted earlier the Crikey article about the security guards bonking assertion.

    Basically between Andrew Bolt blaming multiculturalism and Labor partisans defending Andrews pretending he can do no wrong the truth lies.

  22. Adam Creighton
    @Adam_Creighton
    “Coronavirus is nasty for a very small proportion of people, but it is not Ebola. It badly affects the over-80s with comorbidities, including obesity, yet even of that highest risk group more than nine out of 10 survive.”

    😡

  23. Using Bolt’s logic the Crossroads was a heaving mass of unrestrained multiculturalism.
    You know it makes sense.
    At least Bolt has moved on from thinking that the same catastrophists who made climate change were making up Covid catastrophe stories.

  24. PeeBee @ #510 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 4:47 pm

    P1’But the main point that you (and some others here) don’t seem to get is that there is very little point in endlessly slagging off at the Greens. Labor’s problems are internal to Labor, and have nothing to do with the Greens. And the solutions will have to come from Labor, and not from the Greens.’

    I think you just proved the point BW was making.

    Endlessly slagging Labor.

    Seriously?

    How is pointing out that Labor has problems – which Labor themselves identified in their own post-election review – slagging Labor?

    How is pointing out that endlessly slagging the Greens is not going to help anyone -and is also extremely tedious – slagging Labor?

    Honestly, sometimes I wonder about some people who post here 🙁

  25. lizzie @ #531 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 5:12 pm

    Adam Creighton
    @Adam_Creighton
    “Coronavirus is nasty for a very small proportion of people, but it is not Ebola. It badly affects the over-80s with comorbidities, including obesity, yet even of that highest risk group more than nine out of 10 survive.”

    😡

    Absolute crap. Isn’t there anyone in the Nutjobosphere that can pull that fool into line!?!

  26. BW, the Greens are not responsible for the shitty state of the world. Sure, they are useless, but blame is counterproductive.

  27. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 5:07 pm

    Ah so much schadenfreude to enjoy. Poor Josh, just a few short months ago he was dreaming of a surplus and entering the Liberal Party Legends pantheon. All gorn now and no amount of coulda woulda shoulda if it wasn’t for The Plague will get him entry to it .’

    I must admit that I feel seriously conflicted about this bit of schadenfreude!

  28. Another lovely photo from the SMH photographer, James Brickwood:

    Jamie Crichton with his son Curtis Crichton at Manly beach. They spent Curtis’ 13th birthday spraying hands of the public with sanitizer to kill germs and to spread good vibes.

  29. lizzie @ #532 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 3:12 pm

    Adam Creighton
    @Adam_Creighton
    “Coronavirus is nasty for a very small proportion of people, but it is not Ebola. It badly affects the over-80s with comorbidities, including obesity, yet even of that highest risk group more than nine out of 10 survive.”

    😡

    Adam is a record setter as consistently the worst and most stupid takes in a field full of mediocre media personalities.

  30. P1’How is pointing out that Labor has problems – which Labor themselves identified in their own post-election review – slagging Labor?’

    Errr you can’t see that pointing out Labor’s problem as slagging Labor.

    Keep it up, you are continuously confirming BW’s point.

  31. Lizzie

    Labelling complaints as “angry whingers” is taking a position.

    Don’t get me wrong. I think Creighton and Bolt are angry whingers and not credible.

    That’s my position

  32. ‘Bill says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 5:17 pm

    BW, the Greens are not responsible for the shitty state of the world. Sure, they are useless, but blame is counterproductive.’

    Surely you jest?

    The Greens are counter-productive. The incessantly attack Labor. They wedge Labor. This is especially potent in regional seats which Labor has been losing ever since the Greens Party was formed. They promote the idea that there is no real difference between Labor and Liberal. In terms of biodiversity they have managed for thirty years to lock up the environment vote where it can do zip for the environment.

  33. Just heard that the Frankston Police station has been shutdown. Apparently, two police have tested positive after helping at the high rise tower lockdown.

    If they couldn’t stop themselves getting infected, it is game over.

  34. boerwar

    Yes,as with the crap The Australian Business Community have pushed for it is the general public who get to pay the price.

  35. ”Basically between Andrew Bolt blaming multiculturalism and Labor partisans defending Andrews pretending he can do no wrong the truth lies.“

    Well much closer to the latter than the former.

  36. PeeBee

    You have just reached the inevitable end point of ALL engagements with P1: the personal slag.

    ‘Player One says:
    Monday, July 13, 2020 at 5:15 pm

    PeeBee @ #510 Monday, July 13th, 2020 – 4:47 pm

    P1’But the main point that you (and some others here) don’t seem to get is that there is very little point in endlessly slagging off at the Greens. Labor’s problems are internal to Labor, and have nothing to do with the Greens. And the solutions will have to come from Labor, and not from the Greens.’

    I think you just proved the point BW was making.

    Endlessly slagging Labor.

    Seriously?

    How is pointing out that Labor has problems – which Labor themselves identified in their own post-election review – slagging Labor?

    How is pointing out that endlessly slagging the Greens is not going to help anyone -and is also extremely tedious – slagging Labor?

    Honestly, sometimes I wonder about some people who post here ‘

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