Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book

Various recent electoral news happenings, including a new poll that suggests the looming Northern Territory election will be, if nothing else, more competitive than the last.

The Eden-Monaro by-election has naturally consumed my energies of late, and I’m continuing to follow the late count through the post below, although the result is no longer in doubt. There appears to be no Essential Research poll this week, which leaves me with the following to hang a new open thread off:

• A local environmental concern has published results of a uComms robo-poll of the Darwin area ahead of the Northern Territory election, to be held on August 22. Including responses to the forced-response follow-up for the 13% who were initially undecided, the poll records Labor on 39.3% and the Country Liberal Party on 31.0%, compared with 47.9% and 33.6% respectively in Darwin seats last time. The new Territory Alliance party of former CLP Chief Minister Terry Mills is on 13.7% and the Greens, who only ran in three seats last time, were on 7.2%. The poll was conducted on June 29 from a sample of 699.

• The determination of state and territory seat entitlements for the next parliamentary term was reached on Friday, with a conclusion that was long known in advance and discussed here at length: namely, that Victoria will gain another new seat while Western Australia and the Northern Territory will each lose one, bringing the total number of House of Representatives back to a more typical 150 from its current 151.

• The Australian National University’s regular post-election review of the federal election, entitled Morrison’s Miracle: The 2019 Australian Federal Election, contains 24 chapters of analysis of every facet of the campaign and result, and is available as a free download.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,788 comments on “Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book”

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  1. Yep, multiple problems:

    1. Can’t access pages (get a 500 response code) if logged in (and also if not logged in but have old cookies on your device).
    2. Can’t load comments if running C+ (will get an endless loading spinner).

    The first issue is solved by clearing cookied, and the second by disabling C+.

  2. Yep, multiple problems:

    1. Can’t access pages (get a 500 response code) if logged in (and also if not logged in but have old cookies on your device…or recent cookies also seem like they may cause issues).
    2. Can’t load comments if running C+ (will get an endless loading spinner).

    The first issue is solved by clearing cookied, and the second by disabling C+.

  5. The NSW quarantine regulations are:
    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Documents/pho-air-transport-2.pdf

    An unaccompanied child must be in home isolation, there is no requirement for testing unless symptomatic
    Air crew are required to isolate until the next flight with a small number of exceptions including buying urgent supplies.
    I know of one air crew who developed symptoms and was subsequently detained in hotel quarantine

  7. I can access this page,but not any previous pages.

    It’s possible to access other pages, but you need to clear your cookies first.

    Strangely this seems to mostly apply to going backwards to past pages. Going forwards from a past page tends to work okay.

  10. Robert Mueller speaks out on the Stone commutation.

    The jury ultimately convicted Stone of obstruction of a congressional investigation, five counts of making false statements to Congress and tampering with a witness. Because his sentence has been commuted, he will not go to prison. But his conviction stands.

    Russian efforts to interfere in our political system, and the essential question of whether those efforts involved the Trump campaign, required investigation. In that investigation, it was critical for us (and, before us, the FBI) to obtain full and accurate information. Likewise, it was critical for Congress to obtain accurate information from its witnesses. When a subject lies to investigators, it strikes at the core of the government’s efforts to find the truth and hold wrongdoers accountable. It may ultimately impede those efforts.

    We made every decision in Stone’s case, as in all our cases, based solely on the facts and the law and in accordance with the rule of law. The women and men who conducted these investigations and prosecutions acted with the highest integrity. Claims to the contrary are false.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/11/mueller-stone-oped/?arc404=true

  12. AR:

    No but I did that in Chrome and still PB won’t load. I’m using the Microsoft browser which is working okay.

  16. The interesting thing about the NSW quarantine regulation is that the Minister directed the Commissioner of Police to enforce the regulation with the exception of air crew which is the responsibility of the airline.

    If the reported air crew were not buying essentials then A report needs to be made and the airline would be in some difficulty

  17. In general I am in agreement with the decision to charge people for their own quarantin. I also think however that as this is going to be a longstanding issue maybe using a regional centre with a more holiday camp style accomodation as a lower cost initiative might be an option.
    As someone posted the other day it’s a pity that the infectious diseases hospital in Melbourne was closed.
    The use of Rottnest in WA was in my opinion a very smart move.

  18. Can’t access any more than the front page of PB from my computer but can access threads and comments from my phone. Both browsers are Chrome.

  21. It’s comforting to see that the Vic Premier has again put the media in their place about partisan point-scoring by declining to make a comment about the PM being on holidays. I also commend all Premiers for also declining to start shit fights and focussing on the matters at hand.

  22. Bugler
    Loved your post last night and heartily agree.
    I would love to see how much money the government could save and then redivert to public services such as servicesaustralia, the health system etc if all the contracts to private profit making companies were reined in.

    It used to be said that if you wanted a stable job you went into health, teaching or the public service. That no longer applies and are country and society are the worse for it.

  23. Assantdj,

    Yes, and disappointing some leaders have decided to freeze public sector wages despite the public sector being what is responsible for actually keeping the country moving (though I note in Queensland it has become a wage increase “deferral” which I guess is justifyable).

  26. The public sector is a big place. I think stopping a senior public servant from getting a pay increase greater than the average annual wage is a bit different to stopping a pay increase to cleaners, social workers or orderlies making well under $40,000.

  27. Confessions
    I am not sure it is politically untenable for the Govt to freeze the wages of doctors, nurses and teachers in the public service. There was quite the outcry about that. However I can understand that it is difficult to separate out certain workers only and ignore the rest.

  30. The public sector is a big place. I think stopping a senior public servant from getting a pay increase greater than the average annual wage is a bit different to stopping a pay increase to cleaners, social workers or orderlies making well under $40,000.

    Of course there’s a difference. A huge difference. But that doesn’t mean it’s politically tenable to do so. Unfortunately public servants are commonly regarded as overpaid office clerks, and not frontline workers in local communities.

  31. The Age – By Timna Jacks
    “Taxpayers will forfeit hundreds of millions of dollars in landfill levies that were supposed to be paid by the West Gate Tunnel’s builders under new regulations quietly released by the Andrews government”.
    ________________________________________________________

    Gutsy move by Andrews to sneak these new regulations through during a crisis.
    Does revenue forgone constitute a break of the promise that not 1 cent more will be given to the builders of the West Gate Tunnel Project ?

    Hundreds of millions of dollars would come in handy in dealing with fall out from the covid 19 crisis.

  32. There is a major misconception in the public mind about what a public servant is. People don’t associate the title with police and nurses and teachers. Maybe it’s time to call them by another name such as Essential services workers – public. I’m sure someone could come up with something catchy.
    Of course if our media stopped supporting the IPA and Liberal party small government agenda they might actually point out that these groups of people are the ones targeted by efficiency dividends and wage freezes.

  33. It’s sad that squeezing the economy is the only politically tenable option in a recession. This seems designed to drive wages lower more broadly which I guess is consistent with the desire to snap back to that stellar economy we were experiencing at the start of the year.

  34. Bugler says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 1:52 pm

    The public sector is a big place. I think stopping a senior public servant from getting a pay increase greater than the average annual wage is a bit different to stopping a pay increase to cleaners, social workers or orderlies making well under $40,000.
    ——————————————
    Bugler
    I know Victoria isn’t every state but i doubt any full time employed public servant would be on less than $40k and only a handful would be on less than $50k. When i last looked the bottom of the VPS pay grades was just under $50k.

  35. The SmearStralian giving Morrison some advice..

    AN HOUR AGO JULY 12, 2020350 COMMENTS
    Just when you’re starting to think he hasn’t put a foot wrong he goes and puts his foot in it.

    His scarf in it.

    His plastic cup of beer in it.

    You’ll know by now that Scott Morrison went to the football on Saturday night to cheer on the Sharks.

    The pictures are everywhere.

    He’s in a crowd.

    He’s not wearing a mask.

    He’s whooping it up, cheering on his team, because, well, I don’t know, because we’re all Victorians now?

    Or only up to a point, Prime Minister?

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/scott-morrison-enjoying-a-beer-at-the-footy-while-victorians-grapple-with-covid-lockdown-is-not-a-good-look/news-story/26b7fc60c48ef23664523f9e4a1367a8?nk=a674713108c317603687365a8daade7a-1594531206

  36. Driving back from Jervis Bay today via the Sassafras route we arrived in Goulburn and the crowds there in the center of town and around the main takeaway outlets were like nothing we’ve seen before. As we drove out we both agreed that it looked like people making the best of limited time before things lock down again.
    Goulburn is nearly home for us and the comparison to what we see there any other time was stark.
    Back on the highway it was clear by the time we passed the Federal Highway exit that most of the traffic was from Canberra.

  38. Mexicanbeemer,

    I work in a public school as an education support worker and I can assure you my pay is not above $40,000. As I understand it the NSW freeze would include people such as myself and not just those officially under the NSWPS – but I may be wrong. There are multiple awards covering public employees in each state. It’s not as though money can’t be found elsewhere either. It’s just the “easier” option.

  40. Always of interest when the organ grinder gives the monkey a clip over the ear.

    Murdoch goon just reminding Morrison who is cranking the handle, and he’d better dance to the tune which Rupert likes

  41. DB @3:55 “… As we drove out we both agreed that it looked like people making the best of limited time before things lock down again.“

    I’ve had the same impression and have felt a bit the same way myself – that we might be enjoying a brief window of near normality between lockdowns.

  43. ”Looks like you can cite The Australian when it says something you like.“

    Of course we can cite anything we like in support of points we are making. For my own part I will be unlikely to cite the Australian because it is paywalled and I won’t be buying a subscription.

  48. ‘dave says:
    Sunday, July 12, 2020 at 12:29 am

    bill @ #2379 Saturday, July 11th, 2020 – 10:29 pm

    dave, just downloaded ‘Greyhound’ and will watch. Be interested to see how close it is to the original C.S Forester story ‘The Good Shepherd” He wrote this during his Hornblower period of writing.

    Ahh Yes . I saw that reference in the credits of the movie

    Which gets back to the late great Patrick O’Brian and his magnificent Aubrey–Maturin series – unbeatable.

    ‘

    Aye, aye, as who should say.

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