Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires

A new poll registers fears of a second coronavirus wave and prolonged economic slowdown, and finds concern about climate change still at a high pitch.

The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research poll has still more results on coronavirus, together with some findings on climate change. On the former count, the poll found 63% rating a second wave of coronavirus as restrictions are eased as very likely or quite likely, with only 13% rating it very unlikely; more than 60% expected international travel restrictions to remain for between one and two years; 70% thought it would take between one and two years for employment to recover; 60% expected a prolonged impact on the housing market; more than 60% expected a vaccine would be developed “over the next few years”; and 58% that the population would build resistance through exposure over that time. Despite it all, 45% said they felt very or somewhat positive about the next 12 months compared with 33% for very or somewhat negative.

On climate change, 52% now think Australia is not doing enough, down eight on November, with 25% holding the contrary view, up three. Forty-two per cent said they were now more concerned about climate change than they were a year ago, with a further 46% saying they were no more or less concerned. Full results from the poll will be published later today. (UPDATE: Full report here).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Essential Research: coronavirus and bushfires”

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  1. In March 2020 SDC released a report into sexual harassment.

    https://humanrights.gov.au/about/news/sex-discrimination-commissioner-launches-respectwork-report-national-inquiry-sexual

    “Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins has today launched Respect@Work, the Australian Human Rights Commission’s report of the National Inquiry into Sexual Harassment in Australian Workplaces 2020.

    The report is the culmination of the world-first 18-month National Inquiry, which examined the nature and prevalence of sexual harassment in Australian workplaces, the drivers of this harassment and measures to address and prevent it.
    :::
    Respect@Work brings together evidence gathered from Everyone’s Business, the Commission’s fourth national survey on sexual harassment in Australian workplaces (Everyone’s business), which surveyed 10,000 Australians, in addition to 60 public consultations with more than 600 people across Australia, 460 submissions, and global research and economic modelling on the cost of sexual harassment.

    Through a package of 55 recommendations, Respect@Work proposes a new approach for government, employers and the community to better prevent and respond to sexual harassment in the workplace, and position Australia as a world leader in addressing workplace sexual harassment.”
    ——–

    Respect@Work: Sexual Harassment National Inquiry Report (2020): https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/sex-discrimination/publications/respectwork-sexual-harassment-national-inquiry-report-2020?_ga=2.156453618.852758707.1592866317-523069244.1592866317

  2. John Bolton on Putin and Trump:

    He said a number of foreign leaders, and particularly dictators, had “mastered the art of ringing (Trump’s) bells”, or in other words, of manipulating him.

    “I think Putin thinks he can play him like a fiddle. I think Putin is smart, tough. He plays a bad hand extremely well. And I think he sees that he’s not faced with a serious adversary here. And he works on him, and he works on him, and he works on him,” Mr Bolton said.

    “Chancellor (Angela) Merkel of Germany had no success. I don’t think she tried. I think she just tried to say what her position was, like a normal leader would do, and expect a response. Didn’t get it.

    “But the dictators seem to be better at it than the leaders of the democracies. And I just hope that pattern is not going to persist if he’s re-elected.”

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/john-bolton-says-trumps-impeachment-excuse-is-utter-nonsense-in-explosive-tv-interview/news-story/edec31e64fa48d4c46f61bb14dfa8407

  4. Only evangelicals and uneducated white males will be left?

    At the core of the erosion is a dramatic abandonment of Trump by key demographic groups. The college-educated female rebellion against the president in 2018, which delivered Democrats control of the U.S. House via victories in the suburbs, has begun to register more deeply in recent months among non-college educated and older women.

    Trump’s weekend rally in Tulsa, which focused more on his personal grievance than on solutions to America’s pressing problems, reinforced the sentiments that political strategists say have driven women to desert him.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-slumps-his-campaign-fixes-on-a-target-women/2020/06/22/8bed7cda-af1b-11ea-8758-bfd1d045525a_story.html

  6. Jaeger @ #41 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 8:45 am

    FBI investigates after noose found in garage of Bubba Wallace, Nascar’s only black driver
    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jun/22/bubba-wallace-noose-nascar-fbi-investigation-confederate-flag-ban

    I read about this in The Washington Post last night. Apparently it’s almost impossible to gain access to the garages unless you have a pass. Also all garages have cameras. So I imagine it won’t take long for NASCAR to figure out who, seemingly on the inside of the organisation, it was who did it.

  7. Confessions @ #55 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 9:02 am

    C@t:

    The time for Bolton to tell everyone this stuff was during the impeachment inquiry!

    Apparently that was the Democrats fault 🙄

    The Democrats have criticised Mr Bolton for not coming forward to say what he knew during the impeachment investigation. Today Mr Bolton bluntly rejected that criticism.

    “I was fully prepared (to testify), if I got a subpoena, like everybody else who testified got a subpoena. I think the way the House advocates of impeachment proceeded was badly wrong. Like, I think it was impeachment malpractice.”

    A party man till his dying day.

  8. It’s good to see Labor finally coming on board with the Greens and cross-bench re RC into #robodebt.
    ————

    Australian Greens call for a Royal Commission into robo-debt

    After long advocating for the suspension of the program, Senator Siewert has called for a Royal Commission into the Centrelink Online Compliance Intervention program.

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/australian-greens-call-for-a-royal-commission-into-robo-debt/

    ———

    Labor must have been getting feedback it wasn’t a good look to be seen resisting a RC.
    ———-

    June 17, 2020: A Royal Commission will ensure we know the full truth of what happened with robodebt including before 2015

    https://rachel-siewert.greensmps.org.au/articles/royal-commission-will-ensure-we-know-full-truth-what-happened-robodebt-including-2015%C2%A0

    “I am very disappointed that the Government and Labor combined to vote down my motion in the Senate today calling for a Royal Commission into robodebt”, Senator Rachel Siewert said.

    “We need a judicial review so we can find out exactly who knew what and when and for how long. There needs to be a forensic audit of every debt including those before 2015.”

    ———

    It’s obvious why Labor opposed this motion.
    ——–
    Siewert continues:

    “It took many years for Labor to join the Greens calls for a Royal Commission into the abuse of disabled people as well the Royal Commission into the banking sector.

    “I’m sure eventually they will join in this pathway to justice too.”
    ——–

    And so it came to pass. How likely the ToR acceptable to both major parties for such a RC comes to pass is something else entirely.

  11. So it turns out that the man who headed up the purely political TURC is a serial sexual harasser, using his high office for self-gratification. It says a lot for both Howard’s and Abbott’s judgment, as the latter at least would’ve or should’ve known of the rumours concerning Heydon, by all accounts a nasty piece of work. Whatever legally stems from the inquiry into his conduct, his reputation is irrevocably in tatters. Known as the “Great Dissenter” while on the bench, karma has finally caught up with him.

  13. Hmm, what would be the more effective course of action?

    Launching an external Class Action in the courts that the Coalition could not run and hide from, or baying for a Royal Commission in the federal parliament that the Coalition government of the day could set the Terms of Reference for, BEFORE any external legal body’s judgement could apply pressure on them? THEN call for a Royal Commission. Jeez, hard decision to make. Grandstanding, or making the government accountable in a way they couldn’t manipulate for their own benefit?

  14. Allegations against former High Court judge Dyson Heydon must result in workplace change, Law Council says

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-23/allegations-against-dyson-heydon-must-lead-to-change-law-council/12382308

    The Law Council of Australia conducted a survey into the progression and attrition of male and female lawyers in 2013, and Ms Wright said the findings were disturbing.

    “Sexual harassment is one of the key reasons that women cite for leaving the legal profession early,” she said.

    “We know that about one in six female respondents to our survey indicated they had experienced some kind of inappropriate behaviour in the workplace.”
    :::
    Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins said allegations of sexual harassment were not confined to the legal sector.
    :::
    “Our inquiry told us that one in three Australian workers have been sexually harassed and particularly young people under 29 and women are at the highest risk and we know that it happens in all different workplaces but particularly ones where there is a great hierarchy of power,” she told AM.

  15. Queensland border skirmish hiding much more difficult and fraught issue of economic recovery

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-23/coronavirus-queensland-analysis-economy-lnp-risk-border-stance/12369556

    Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington has thrown the dice in her first major gamble of the 2020 Queensland election campaign.

    Breaking away from an uneasy consensus with the Palaszczuk Government on keeping the borders closed until at least July 10 during the coronavirus pandemic, she’s sharpening a key point of difference between the LNP and Labor.

    It’s a strategy that comes with considerable risks, particularly in light of the recent spike of COVID-19 cases in Victoria.
    :::
    Despite all the political theatrics, the two major parties had almost identical policies on border closures up until last weekend.

    They were both committed to an official “road map” for a July 10 border opening, subject to COVID-19 cases being kept under appropriate control.

    But many businesses complained Ms Palaszczuk created considerable confusion last month by floating the idea of the borders remaining closed until September — a statement she has never explicitly walked away from.
    :::
    The LNP will now be calling for the borders to be opened on July 1.</blockquote?

  16. “It’s good to see Labor finally coming on board with the Greens and cross-bench re RC into #robodebt.”

    ***

    We lead, they follow. About time too. Heads need to roll in the Coalition over this disgusting attack on people who were/are doing it tough. It has destroyed lives.

  17. Phillip Lodge
    @phlogga
    ·
    1m
    Jeez the bloody Vic Libs have got a fucking hide. Last week they were attacking “Chairman Dan” for not easing the restrictions behind other states. Now they’re attacking him because there have been outbreaks and we’re a “State of Confusion”. No confusion, just dumb pricks

  18. “It’s good to see Labor finally coming on board with the Greens and cross-bench re RC into #robodebt.”
    ______________
    A Royal Commission into Robodebt should also examine Bill Shorten’s role in setting up the system. What did he know and when? Was it all his idea?

  19. Andrew Leigh
    @ALeighMP
    ·
    4m
    Having been a High Court associate (for the wonderful Michael Kirby in 1996-97), this power abuse is deeply shocking. Associateships are incredibly sought-after & extremely personal. There’s nowhere to go if you fall out with your judge.

  20. Quasarsays: Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 8:50 am

    “ There was clear evidence that Trump and members of his circle had coördinated with the Russians, Wallander said. Trump’s recent attack on nato as being “obsolete” showed that he intended to do whatever Putin wanted. ”

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/29/what-fiona-hill-learned-in-the-white-house

    ****************************************************************

    Confirmed: Roger Stone was the link between Trump and Russia — and a lot of people missed that

    The US Department of Justice released unredacted parts of Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in 2016. The parts involved Roger Stone, the president’s friend and confidant. (They were redacted while Stone’s federal trial was ongoing.) Thanks to Buzzfeed, which sued for the release of the information, it’s abundantly clear there was a link between Trump and Kremlin operatives attacking Democrat Hillary Clinton. That link was Stone

    During testimony to the US Congress, Robert Mueller said the Russians waged a cyber-offensive against Clinton to benefit Trump. His report explained how hackers under the direction of Vladimir Putin gave stolen documents to Wikileaks, which timed their release for maximum impact. Unclear, however, was whether the Trump campaign knew about Putin’s efforts and more importantly, whether Trump himself knew about his campaign’s effort to obtain the information. If a link could be established, it would be clear that to win, the president colluded with the enemy.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/confirmed-roger-stone-was-the-link-between-trump-and-russia-and-a-lot-of-people-missed-that/

    Newly Revealed Mueller Findings Show Prosecutors Suspected Donald Trump Lied About Roger Stone

    To summarize this long-running saga of presidential misconduct: Mueller suspected Trump lied to hide his knowledge of Stone’s interactions with WikiLeaks and involvement in scheming related to emails hacked by Russia. Mueller also laid out the case that Trump obstructed justice to ensure Stone did not reveal this information, in part by dangling a pardon. Now Trump, at least according to a tweet he issued on June 4, is considering pardoning Stone before he sets foot in prison. That is brazen. If Trump does pardon Stone, it’s hard to imagine a president more overtly abusing his power to protect himself.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/06/new-sections-mueller-report-roger-stone-trump-lie/

  21. WA police officer escaped sanction for ‘shocking’ force against Indigenous boy

    Exclusive: Outrage after CCTV reveals Perth officer dragged handcuffed teenager to ground, causing him to hit his head

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/23/wa-police-officer-escaped-sanction-for-shocking-force-against-indigenous-boy

    Amid a spate of incidents raising concerns about heavy-handed policing against Indigenous people in Australia, footage obtained by the Guardian highlights what critics say is the flawed process by which investigations into alleged misconduct made against officers are handled internally.
    :::
    A witness to the incident, who heard the boy cry out in pain, was also arrested for obstructing police. The charges were later dropped after the CCTV footage seemed to contradict statements filed by police.

    The footage shows the officer then using his forearm to press the boy’s face into the pavement for about a minute. A second officer then pulls the boy’s leg up behind his body and also leans on him. The boy remains pinned to the ground while handcuffed for about five minutes.
    :::
    But the case highlights what critics say is a lack of transparency and accountability in the way police in Australia investigate alleged excessive force by officers, and reveals concerning details about the way some police treat bystanders who speak out against what they see as unnecessary force.

  22. Some of the best items from “The Daily Telegraph”

    As I said yesterday who could honestly support that Brand Trust survey lizzie posted yesterday.

  23. I cannot wait for C to explain why it’s wrong for Labor to have a Royal Commission into Robodebt because the Greens called for it before Labor did. 🙂

  24. A Royal Commission into Robodebt should also examine Bill Shorten’s role in setting up the system. What did he know and when? Was it all his idea?
    _____
    I’m sure Shorten would be only too pleased to front up and explain how averaging was properly used to identify POSSIBLE excessive misreporting by NewStart recipients. He would go on to say how once identified, the cases would be closely and individually examined by departmental employees in order to establish those worthy of follow up with the recipients.

  25. ALP looks for new state boss to lead branch clean-out

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/alp-looks-for-new-state-boss-to-lead-branch-clean-out-20200622-p55533.html

    “The administrators of the Victorian Labor Party need someone to take on one of the most difficult jobs in politics after a succession plan hatched by disgraced factional warlord Adem Somyurek came unstuck.

    Former Victorian premier Steve Bracks and retired MP Jenny Macklin, the ALP elders entrusted by the national executive to clean up the party in the wake of the Somyurek branch stacking scandal, have begun searching for a new state secretary.
    :::
    The current state secretary, Clare Burns, has been living in Canberra since March for personal reasons and is due to begin maternity leave. She has indicated to party bosses that she won’t return to work for a year.

    Mr Somyurek had arranged for her replacement to be Michael de Bruyn, one of his most trusted factional operatives.
    :::
    Mr de Bruyn was working as an adviser to Premier Daniel Andrews when he split with his father’s traditional SDA factional grouping and threw his lot in with the rising Mr Somyurek, a Turkish-born MP busily constructing his own power base. His appointment as state secretary would have further strengthened Mr Somyurek’s administrative control of the party.”

  26. BK @ #74 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 7:38 am

    A Royal Commission into Robodebt should also examine Bill Shorten’s role in setting up the system. What did he know and when? Was it all his idea?
    _____
    I’m sure Shorten would be only too pleased to front up and explain how averaging was properly used to identify POSSIBLE excessive misreporting by NewStart recipients. He would go on to say how once identified, the cases would be closely and individually examined by departmental employees in order to establish those worthy of follow up with the recipients.

    It would act as an important contrast as to how the current Government corrupted the system when creating RoboDebt.

  27. BK
    says:
    Tuesday, June 23, 2020 at 9:38 am
    A Royal Commission into Robodebt should also examine Bill Shorten’s role in setting up the system. What did he know and when? Was it all his idea?
    _____
    I’m sure Shorten would be only too pleased to front up and explain how averaging was properly used to identify POSSIBLE excessive misreporting by NewStart recipients. He would go on to say how once identified, the cases would be closely and individually examined by departmental employees in order to establish those worthy of follow up with the recipients.
    _________________________________
    Were you working in the Department at this time or are you repeating what Bill Shorten has said?

  29. So Labor want to establish an RC into RobDebt from Government, where it has control of the terms of reference, whilst the Greens want one now with the terms of reference controlled by those who created the it.

  31. What was it Labor people called the Greens demand for a Royal Commission into Robodebt?

    A stunt from memory. Round about the time private members bills being restricted was being discussed.

    Labor cant. When the Greens do it it’s a stunt. When Labor does it it’s seizing control of the narrative.

  32. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #79 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 9:50 am

    So Labor want to establish an RC into RobDebt from Government, where it has control of the terms of reference

    That’s years away, at the earliest. The cries of “political witch-hunt” will be deafening.

    whilst the Greens want one now with the terms of reference controlled by those who created the it.

    Wasn’t the same complaint made about the banking one, and then it did mostly okay anyways?

  33. guytaur @ #81 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 7:51 am

    What was it Labor people called the Greens demand for a Royal Commission into Robodebt?

    A stunt from memory. Round about the time private members bills being restricted was being discussed.

    Well it was.

    As I just said, any RC held now would need the consent and approval of the current Government, with the terms of set up by them also.

  34. Barney

    Total Bullshit from you.

    It was a good call when the Greens made it. It’s a good call now Labor has also made it. Labor’s call is also a stunt. Only the government of the day calls Royal Commissions when you are talking control of the terms of reference.

    Edit: Reminder. Labor is not the government

  35. a r @ #82 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 7:53 am

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #79 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 9:50 am

    …

    whilst the Greens want one now with the terms of reference controlled by those who created the it.

    Wasn’t the same complaint made about the banking one, and then it did mostly okay anyways?

    The banking RC was limited in scope and time, so there were many areas of banking it did not address.

    Politics had it chasing after industry super funds, while other areas of concern went untouched.

  36. guytaur @ #84 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 7:58 am

    Barney

    Total Bullshit from you.

    It was a good call when the Greens made it. It’s a good call now Labor has also made it. Labor’s call is also a stunt. Only the government of the day calls Royal Commissions when you are talking control of the terms of reference.

    Well that’s Labor’s proposal, to call it when it’s in Government.

  37. Yeah I remember

    Wilson Retweeted
    S.V. Dáte
    @svdate
    ·
    45m
    Remember that Brexit guy?

    His presence at the Trump rally was so important to the United States that our government gave him a “national interest” waiver to enter the country despite the travel ban.

    Then the Trump camp flew him around on private jets.
    Brexit Leader Allowed To Attend Trump Rally With A ‘National Interest’ Travel Ban Waiver
    Nigel Farage and other VIPs were flown to and from Tulsa in jets chartered by the Trump campaign for a rally that wound up drawing less than 6,200 people.
    huffpost.com

  38. Barney

    So there you have it. No politician has an impact because they are not in government. Oppositions have no role because they are not in government.

    Thanks for clarifying your position.

  40. guytaur @ #88 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 8:06 am

    Barney

    So there you have it. No politician has an impact because they are not in government. Oppositions have no role because they are not in government.

    Thanks for clarifying your position.

    Not my position, I was just pointing out the difference between Labor and the Greens call for an RC.

    I thought my first comment made this perfectly clear.

    Maybe not!

  41. @vanbadham
    ·
    1h
    “Sex pest” Dyson Heydon was part of an orchestrated character assassination of Bill Shorten mobilised by the Liberal establishment from the moment Bill stuck his head above the media parapet in Beaconsfield mine rescue.

    The Liberals have no honour. Not a skerrick. #auspol

  43. Barney

    I made my point clear. Labor calling for a Royal Commission in Opposition is just as much of a stunt as the Greens calling for one.

    If Labor gets elected it’s a different ball game. I expect that’s years away.

    Today Labor is doing a stunt by your definition

  44. The question is whether Greens and cross bench will support an RC if Labor ever gets to government. There’s always a doubt.

  46. guytaur @ #93 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 8:15 am

    Barney

    I made my point clear. Labor calling for a Royal Commission in Opposition is just as much of a stunt as the Greens calling for one.

    If Labor gets elected it’s a different ball game. I expect that’s years away.

    Today Labor is doing a stunt by your definition

    Really, Pink Bats and TURC were just stunts!

  47. Barney

    No the LNP got elected.

    They then turned their calls for a Royal Commission into reality.

    However by your definition all the other parties that also called for those royal commissions were just doing stunts. Unless you are the government by your definition all calls to address issues are just stunts.

    Edit: This means Marriage Equality was the victory of the LNP. Not the LGBTI community. Not Labor not the Greens and not anyone else I have left out that campaigned for years and got the issue addressed.

  49. guytaur @ #97 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 8:22 am

    Barney

    No the LNP got elected.

    They then turned their calls for a Royal Commission into reality.

    However by your definition all the other parties that also called for those royal commissions were just doing stunts. Unless you are the government by your definition all calls to address issues are just stunts.

    You really need to work on your comprehension, it’s really bad.

    I’ll repost my original comment.

    Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #79 Tuesday, June 23rd, 2020 – 7:50 am

    So Labor want to establish an RC into RobDebt from Government, where it has control of the terms of reference, whilst the Greens want one now with the terms of reference controlled by those who created the it.

  50. Denise Allen
    @denniallen
    ·
    2m
    Thousands packed bumper to bumper in Chadstone, Highpoint, Northland…no social distancing, very few masks. Yet media focus on a protest where 3 ppl confirmed who would have had it BEFORE protest & ZERO from protest. Woman facepalmingWoman facepalming #auspol #MSM

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