The week that was

Party turmoil in Victoria and Queensland, state and territory seat entitlements for the next federal parliament determined, and more polling on attitudes to demonstrations in the United States.

After a particularly eventful week, a whole bunch of electorally relevant news to report:

• The last official population updates have confirmed next month’s official determination of how many seats each state and territory will be entitled to in the next parliament will cause the abolition of seats in Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and the creation of a new one in Victoria for the second consecutive term. Antony Green offers detailed consideration of how the redistributions might look, suggesting Victoria’s will most likely result in the creation of another safe Labor seat in Melbourne’s outer north-west, while Western Australia’s could either mash together Hasluck and Burt in eastern Perth, or abolish the safe Liberal south-of-the-river seat of Tangney, with knock-on effects that would weaken Labor’s position in Fremantle and/or Burt.

• In the wake of the 60 Minutes/The Age expose on Adem Somyurek’s branch stacking activities on Sunday, Labor’s national executive has taken control of all the Victorian branch’s federal and state preselections for the next three years. Steve Bracks and Jenny Macklin have been brought in to serve as administrators until January, and an audit of the branch’s 16,000 members will be conducted to ensure that are genuine consenting members and paid their own fees.

• Ipsos has published polling on the recent demonstrations in the United States from fifteen countries, which found Australians to be supportive of what were specified as “peaceful protests in the US” and disapproving of Donald Trump’s handling of them, although perhaps in slightly lesser degree than other more liberal democracies. Two outliers were India and Russia, which produced some seemingly anomalous results: the former had a strangely high rating for Trump and the latter relatively low support for the protests, yet both were uniquely favourable towards the notion that “more violent protests are an appropriate response”.

• The Tasmanian government has announced the periodical Legislative Council elections for the seats of Huon and Rosevears will be held on August 1, having been delayed from their normally allotted time of the first Tuesday in May.

In Queensland, where the next election is a little over four months away:

• After floating the possibility of an election conducted entirely by post, the Queensland government announced this week that the October 31 state election will be conducted in a more-or-less normal fashion. However, pre-poll voting is being all but actively encouraged, to the extent that Attorney-General Yvette D’Ath says there will be an “election period” rather than an election day. This will mean “more pre-poll locations, longer pre-poll hours, and more pre-poll voting days in the two weeks prior to the election”.

• The Liberal National Party opposition was thrown into turmoil last week after the Courier-Mail ($) received internal polling showing Labor leading 51-49 in Redlands, 52-48 in Gaven, 55-45 in Mansfield and 58-42 in inner urban Mount Ommaney. The parties were tied in the Sunshine Coast hinterland seat of Glass House, while the LNP led by 52-48 in the Gold Coast seat of Currumbin, which it recently retained by a similar margin at a by-election. Frecklington’s supporters pointed the finger at the state branch president, Dave Hutchinson, who was reportedly told by Frecklington that his position was untenable after Clive Palmer hired him as a property consultant in January. The party room unanimously affirmed its support for Frecklington on Monday, as mooted rival David Crisafulli ruled out a challenge ahead of the election.

• The Queensland parliament this week passed an array of electoral law changes including campaign spending caps of $92,000 per candidate and limitations on signage at polling places. The changes have been criticised ($) by the Liberal National Party and Katter’s Australian Party, who complain that union advertising will now dominate at polling booths, and that the laws was pushed through with indecent haste on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,922 comments on “The week that was”

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  1. RIP Scotty’s “Trans Tasman Bubble” push. No Snow for you this year ar.
    ……………………………………………….
    Why the Trans-Tasman travel bubble is dead

    OPINION: A tsunami of rage swept over the country last week as Covid-19 quarantine bungles emerged. ………………….Here are six reasons Tasman travel is looking unlikely any time soon.
    1) Public anger

    Last week’s series of bungles taught us that the public has zero-tolerance for slip-ups. The country is at Alert Level 1, meaning …………………………………

    2) Australian cases

    Epidemiologists are warning about a potential second wave emerging from Victoria. The Australian state is struggling with ………………………

    4) Public mood

    The overwhelming sense I get from a few trips around the country in the past few weeks, is that most Kiwis don’t want a trans-Tasman bubble if Australia is still managing an outbreak…………………..
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121905826/why-the-transtasman-travel-bubble-is-dead

  2. Norman Swan is emphasising the use of masks in public until this latest breakout is over. He cannot understand why they have not been recommended by states.

  3. poroti, I like this bit…

    Yes, we could only deal with states like South Australia… But… South Australia has already relaxed border restrictions with some states. Therefore, it’s impossible to deal with one state when its borders are porous.

    Australia does not have the elimination strategy we do – with its Government aiming to “minimise the number of people becoming infected or sick with Covid-19”. New Zealand, on that other hand, has a zero-tolerance approach.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121905826/why-the-transtasman-travel-bubble-is-dead

  4. The health program director at the Grattan Institute says Queensland and Western Australia have done the right thing keeping their borders closed amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

    I bet that statement has given Liberals nationwide a collective bout of indigestion. 😆

  5. C@tmomma @ #1564 Monday, June 22nd, 2020 – 12:36 pm

    The health program director at the Grattan Institute says Queensland and Western Australia have done the right thing keeping their borders closed amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

    I bet that statement has given Liberals nationwide a collective bout of indigestion. 😆

    More like egg on face. Esp in light of the situation in Victoria.

  6. More like egg on face. Esp in light of the situation in Victoria.

    Never.
    Non-stick coated faces.
    And they always have a spare face in the briefcase.

  7. Simon Katich

    That’ll teach ’em to not mix with Victorians and NSWelshmen 🙂 Stick to WA,NT,Tassie and maybe Qld peeps.

  8. Los Angeles Times
    ·
    2m
    “‘I’ve never seen so many white people marching, and I’ve been watching these things for a long time,’ my father, now in his 85th year, tells me. ‘Change is coming, I think”

  9. Instead of posturing, Sandell should urge Bandt to do something that he CAN do: implement the Greens policy to initiate a community debate about migration and population policies.

    Surely that is not too much of an ask 30 years after the Greens started playing at politics?

  10. boerwar

    Around about where do you live?
    ——————-
    Currently near Brunswick Heads…… but i grew up in south western Queensland.

    The Warrego was mostly dry.

  11. Incitatus

    “I trust you provided the same feed back to Pegasus? No?”
    ___________________________

    Haha. I think even less of Peg’s thought processes than I do of yours!

  12. In an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz — a rising star of conservative politics whose response to the outbreak has been credited with avoiding thousands of deaths — said draconian measures used to stamp out the virus might only be a one-off move because leaders were now better prepared to react and the public more alert to the health risk.

    “If there is a second wave, our situation would be very different than in February and March,” said the 33-year-old Kurz, who is the world’s youngest leader.

    “We all have become better at containment. There’s a much higher test capacity and we have much better structures now to deal with this pandemic, so I think that there is a big chance that we will be able to react to a second wave with more regional measures, probably with regional lockdowns.

    “The second point is people now have much more experience with the virus. So I think if the numbers go up again, people would react on their own probably without the need for strong legislation as they themselves don’t want to get sick.”

    A major second wave would force governments to make difficult decisions about balancing public health against economic recovery. The director of the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Andrea Ammon, has previously said a second wave was almost guaranteed.

    “The question is when and how big, that is the question in my view.”

    People would react because they don’t want to get sick.”
    What if they simply don’t believe they will?

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/very-different-than-in-march-sebastian-kurz-morrison-s-unlikely-new-ally-looks-to-second-wave-20200619-p554fs.html

  13. The working population of Australia vs the Morrison government:

    The nation’s major industry superannuation funds have lashed the Coalition MPs who want to delay lifting the compulsory contribution amid the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

    Industry Super Australia has labelled the MPs “out of touch” for themselves receiving more than 15 per cent super, but arguing that 9.5 per cent is enough for the average Australian to fund a dignified retirement.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/industry-super-funds-lash-out-of-touch-coalition-mps-over-call-to-freeze-rate-20200622-p5550c.html

  14. rakali

    I sometimes contribute to the Platypus Conservancy which also ‘does’ rakali.

    You live well within the range of rakali and you also live near different sorts of water habitats suitable for rakali.

    If you contact the following link they would probably be able to let you know where you are likely to see them near where you live.

    The best thing to do is get up before dawn or get down towards dusk and just sit still where you can see the banks along the water’s edge: they often seem to patrol along the banks.

    If you walk along streams and finding little clumps of yabbie claws, etc, say on a rock you have probably found a rakali ‘dining room’. Check to see if the leavings are fresh. Then find a spot well back and sit still.

    They tend to be shy of any human movement and tend to dive.

    If you are close enough you can sometimes see a trail of bubbles.

    The Conservancy would also be interested in any sightings you might make.

    Good luck!

    https://platypus.asn.au/

  15. Currently near Brunswick Heads

    Mullum antivaxer?
    Nimbin hippie?
    Billinudgel yokel?
    Ocean Shores bogan?
    Bangalow trendy?

  16. There was a platypus in the creek near where I lived in the Central Coast. Very cute. And Mrs Katich trapped and handled dozens in her previous work up around Ryleston way.

  17. John Oliver highlighting prison hotspots for Covid 19 on Last Week Tonight.

    One advocate describing Cook County jail as a death cruise ship petri dish

  18. ‘Simon Katich says:
    Monday, June 22, 2020 at 3:26 pm

    There was a platypus in the creek near where I lived in the Central Coast. Very cute. And Mrs Katich trapped and handled dozens in her previous work up around Ryleston way.’

    The original ‘fake news’ critters. They are rippers, IMO.

  19. Dickhead Morrison didnt want the borders closed in the first place.

    He can only go on what he tells his advisors to tell him. He listens closely to that sort of advice.

    These are the same advisors who say it is safe to fly internationally within 0.5m of someones face as, you know, airconditioning and stuff.

  20. I notice the local government areas in Victoria with COVID outbreaks are in the tradesmen belt.

    If they read the Herald Sun they would believe the COVID regulations were draconian and Chairman Dan was over reaching

  21. phoenixRED @ #1578 Monday, June 22nd, 2020 – 3:38 pm

    Greensborough Growlersays: Monday, June 22, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Time for this dude to dust off his CV.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/21/brad-parscale-donald-trump-tulsa-rally-covid-ivanka-kushner-rick-wilson?CMP=share_btn_tw

    ****************************************************************************

    The Lincoln Project@ProjectLincoln

    12 = a dozen
    144 = a gross
    6200 = a parscale

    I read this morning that the on-line form that applicants used to apply for tickets did not have an “Are you over 18” box to tick. So The trump campaign may have collected the personal details of children under 18 which is against the law!

  22. BW, I was pretty jealous of Mrs Katich. Coming from a state that wiped out their platypus she got to handle heaps of them while I could only watch mine from a careful distance.

    I must head back to Warrawong soon to see if I can spot that last one on the SA mainland ‘in the wild’.

  23. SK
    It is a bit of a pity that many of our charismatic vertebrates are virtually invisible to the average person.
    We saw a male and a female Swamp Wallaby yesterday – both less than 2 km from Canberra Post Office. They are beautiful creatures. Yet I bet that not one local in ten thousand has seen one in the wild.

  24. billie

    I was thinking they are the areas with rapid housing development, but I’m hesitant to draw any other conclusions.

  25. Greensborough Growlersays: Monday, June 22, 2020 at 3:46 pm

    phoenixRED @

    I read this morning that the on-line form that applicants used to apply for tickets did not have an “Are you over 18” box to tick. So The trump campaign may have collected the personal details of children under 18 which is against the law!

    ************************************************

    The word *law* has no meaning to the Trump family …… if anything arises to threaten their well being, then they just call in William Barr to take care of it and dismiss anyone who is getting too close to unearthing their “crimes” …..

  26. It is a bit of a pity that many of our charismatic vertebrates are virtually invisible to the average person.
    We saw a male and a female Swamp Wallaby yesterday – both less than 2 km from Canberra Post Office. They are beautiful creatures. Yet I bet that not one local in ten thousand has seen one in the wild.

    I had the pleasure of walking around the swamps surrounding Brunswick Heads for work. Saw plenty of swampies. And a giant carpet snake. Not to mention way too many cranky browns.

    And I will never forget the first yellow footed rock wallaby I saw in the Gammons. There is nothing more speccy, the way they look at you from behind a rock outcrop… with the Gammon range as a backdrop.

  27. On this job I hit a swampy driving back late at night. I was devastated. I looked for hours to try to find it. Came back the next morning hoping light would help. But no sign.

  28. No rakali.
    The water around there was tidal. Do they handle that? I know they are around the Sydney harbour north foreshore in places but thought that was mainly the creeks feeding in.

    I would imagine up around Whian and Nightcap there would be plenty. I camped in Nightcap and watched a small wallaby (not a swampy – not sure the species) hopping like mad across the path ahead. Shortly followed by a dog with nose to ground. The dog stopped and looked at me long enough for me to unload with a rock but not long enough to get hit by it.

  29. I love this. Perhaps someone could remind Morrison.

    McGowan
    There are things that are more important than football out there, as many people might be surprised to learn.

  30. SK
    Apparently they can live in estuarine waters and have been recorded on ocean beaches. My guess around Brunswick Heads would be to start just above the landward end of the tidal range of the larger watercourses.
    Just follow the mosquitoes!

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