Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll ($) of Queensland state voting intention that finds a surge in Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s approval rating failing to translate into electoral support for the Labor government, which trails the Liberal National Party 52-48 on two-party preferred, after the last such poll in January showed a dead heat. Labor is down two on the primary vote to 32%, with the Liberal National Party up three to 38%, One Nation down three to 12%, the Greens up two to 12% and Katter’s Australian Party steady on 3%.
This is despite a surge in Annastacia Palaszczuk’s personal ratings, up 20 points on approval to 49% and down 11 on disapproval to 33%, with her lead over Deb Frecklington as preferred premier now at 44-23, out from 34-22. The net positive rating of 16% matches that of Newspoll’s state leaders poll in April, although that poll had a much lower uncommitted rating with Palaszczuk at 55% approval and 39% disapproval (which were actually the softest results out of any of the five leaders canvassed on that occasion). Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington’s ratings have improved, with approval up three to 26% and disapproval down four to 29%, although her 45% uncommitted rating indicates persistently low name recognition.
Despite the weak result on voting intention, Labor is credited with a 39-28 lead as best party to manage the post COVID-19 economic recovery, and there is now a 49-30 split in favour of the proposition that the state is heading in the right direction, which went 46-31 the other way in the February poll. All the online report tells us about field work dates and sample size is that the latter was “more than 1000”.
Weird result given the answers to better economic manager and heading in the right direction.
Also weird in terms of the two party preferred. Assuming the Greens stay at 80% to Labor, ON 35% to Labor and 45% to Labor for the rest I get 49.5/50.5.
Even if you reduce Labor’s ON flow to 30% and others to 40% it’s still 49/51.
More generally, no change in the Labor + Greens total but a swing of 2% in two party preferred??
I think the LNP Primary is 38% (+3) not 35%. That’s where the TPP swing is from.
William has misreported the LNP primary vote, which is 38
Applying preference flows in Queensland from the federal election (which were particularly weak for Labor) to these primary votes, I get Labor on 48.8%. But rounding might have made the difference.
Sorry about that — 35% was the last poll. Post corrected, and obviously there’s no issue with the YouGov preference flows.
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/yougov-poll-queensland-labor-governments-vote-shrivels/news-story/04e693d3de28af07ec51dad6d4b58728
Yep the LNP at 38% explains it. Now that’s a bit of worry for the ALP. 38% is a winnable situation for the LNP. It would also mean the ALP loses seats in Brisbane. don’t know what more they can do to what they are doing at the present.
The upside for the ALP is that it might mean Deb Frecklington stays on as leader.
Although the counter argument would be ‘let’s bed this down for sure with a new and popular leader.
Ah, I have been making a mistake in my seat calculations. Thought the Parliament size was still 89 but it’s actually 93 .
This makes the ALP task, from its current base of 48 seats, much harder. I see now why the LNP are the bookies favourite!
It is hard to see where the ALP can win any seats. But it has at least 7, and maybe a few more if today’s poll is right, at risk.
Still the ‘better economic manager’ result is highly significant. I think we can also expect an anti LNP scare campaign based around potential government cuts and privatisation.
2015 LNP lost government with a primary vote of 41.32%
2017 LNP remained in opposition with a primary vote of 33.69%
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Like with federal elections
The LNP will find it difficult to win government with a primary vote under 40%
“2015 LNP lost government with a primary vote of 41.32%
2017 LNP remained in opposition with a primary vote of 33.69%”
———————————
Like with federal elections
The LNP will find it difficult to win government with a primary vote under 40%
***
In 2015 the One Nation primary vote was less than 1% in QLD but now it’s at 12%. The LNP vote may be lower than when they lost in 2015 but 38% plus most of PHON’s 12% and Katter’s 3% gives them the TPP lead.
Firefox says:
Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 9:18 am
In 2015 the One Nation primary vote was less than 1% in QLD but now it’s at 12%. The LNP vote may be lower than when they lost in 2015 but 38% plus most of PHON’s 12% and Katter’s 3% gives them the TPP lead.
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That may be the case, but i will still be surprise to see the LNP get government with under 40% in the primary vote
“Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll ($) of Queensland state voting intention that finds a surge in Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s approval rating failing to translate into electoral support for the Labor government, which trails the Liberal National Party 52-48 on two-party”…
Ha, ha, ha…. yeah, good try!
Looking forward to election night…. and yet another apology from pollsters!
“Applying preference flows in Queensland from the federal election”…
William, it’s very well known that the voting behaviour of Queenslanders at Federal elections is VERY different to their behaviour at State elections. In particular, they tend to bash Labor federally (which is the main reason why Labor has been in opposition federally since 1996, with the exception of just two terms), but support Labor at the state level.
I usually would dismiss YouGov Poll as rubbish but they were closer then what I wanted to believe at the federal election in terms of Labors primary vote.
Its very wishy washy for LNP though. Annastasia Palaszczuk personal numbers have significantly improved as well. And because the vote is all over of the place it may be harder to pick a trend with a statewide swing.
Its why the Courier Mail selecting marginal seats on the pendulum and suggesting they are in play maybe misguided.
Courier Mail’s can still be dodge with polls though and Newscorp are very selective in what they use. There was a poll out that majority of Queenslanders support borders remaining closed and Newscorp didn’t run with it because it didn’t fit with their agenda.
It’s definitely a curious poll. It shows a significant, election winning, shift to the LNP but has the ALP a long way ahead on the better leader and better economic manager metrics.
So what sort of voter says ‘yeah, Anna is a better leader and the ALP is better at managing the economy, but I am going to vote LNP anyway’?
My own bias is that the Premier is not actually that popular and the better economic manager metrics relates purely to the here and now, with voters worried about debt in the future, which the LNP woukd be better placed to manage. Also, the border closure thing, while popular overall is hurting some people a lot.
Alternatively, you might think Queensland is basically an LNP State and voters just want to vote LNP.
“Alternatively, you might think Queensland is basically an LNP State and voters just want to vote LNP.”
You might think that if you were not aware that Queensland has had a Labor government for 25 out of the last 31 years.
While the ALP has been successful at a State level, this doesn’t make Qld an ALP State in terms of demography and culture.
I see Qld as like one of those Southern USA states that elected mdly progressive Democrats at State levels in the 80s and 90s but now are completely Republican. If there was ever a competent LNP government it would be in power for a long time.
Qld Labor did very well in elections from 2001 to 2006, but otherwise have not dominated. They benefited from having an incompetent LNP and of course the Campbell Newman fiasco.
Historyintime @ #16 Sunday, June 7th, 2020 – 12:47 pm
There might be a rally around the Premier componet to the popularity numbers (similar to Morrison) due to the handling of the Covid 19 pandemic.
There is also nothing in it for people to be happy with the Government atm and a “give me some reasons to vote you back again” meme is apparent. The Government can now also claim underdog status.
I’m not certain that people are particularly focussed on an Election due nearly 5 months away.
If Labor manage this sensibly, they’ll win.
“Qld Labor did very well in elections from 2001 to 2006, but otherwise have not dominated. They benefited from having an incompetent LNP and of course the Campbell Newman fiasco.”
Labor have dominated in Queensland in terms of state elections you kind of glossed over Fargo61says point since 1989 there has only been two terms of LNP government.
You also suggest QLD changing demographic is more conservative. Truth is QLD always been conservative but it hasn’t stop them voting Labor at state level before Nats took power and had 32 years of rule. Labor had dominated the previous 40 years with only one term of conservative government.
Long-term state governments have been a feature but the public generally vote state Labor in QLD because there viewed more trusted on health and education which are considered state issues and voting LNP federal because their more trusted on economic management and immigration whether agree with that is another matter but it is the perception. While Newman implosion was spectacular Labor were in power for the previous 20 out of the 22 years and just dismissing it as a five year gap from 2001 – 2006 is far from realty.
If the ALP government keeps the borders closed then the marginal electorates in the tourist areas are more likely to vote Liberal.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/06/unpopular-state-premiers-still-have.html
Unpopular State Premiers Still Have Dire Historic Fates
…mainly an update of an article with a similar title from 2013 but also contains some comments about this poll (not that Palaszczuk is currently unpopular, but her COVID bounce is rather small compared to others.)
“The ALP are better economic managers”. In your dreams! Did you notice the Queensland State debt?
Queensland is probably the hardest state to read because as Anthony Green has pointed out that unlike other states which are dominated by their state capitals. Queensland has about half of its electorates outside of the Brisbane area making it more volatile to large swings from the regional differences.
Does Queensland do the strange preference stuff?
“Does Queensland do the strange preference stuff?”
Queensland did away with optional preferential voting in 2016. LNP with support of crossbenchers expanded the parliament from 89 seats to 93 seats against the wishes of Palaszczuk government.
However Labor state MP Sterling Hinchcliffe in what some called at the time political tactically brilliant move came up with the idea of a amendment to bring back compulsory voting. The move was supported by the crossbench and stunned the LNP and contributed to the downfall of Lawrence Springborgs leadership.
The move was seen as political savy as Labor was having at their expense Greens votes exhausted where Green voters had the option of just voting 1 and not allocating a prefernce which they likely would prefernce Labor. However in a blink of an eye at the 2017 Qld state election the One Nation vote rose and what was seen as benifiting Labor ended up also benifiting the LNP. There were predicted 7 or 8 LNP seats that had their seats saved against the One Nation onslaught from Labor preferences.
LNP has said if they win the election they will change the process back to optional preferential voting.
“The LNP vote may be lower than when they lost in 2015 but 38% plus most of PHON’s 12%”…
Assuming that 100% of PHON’s voters will preference the LNP over the ALP is a bit of a wild gamble, methink….
“Does Queensland do the strange preference stuff?”…. Yes. What they don’t do is the State Upper House stuff…. In Queensland: the winner takes it all!
The measurable effect of the OPV to CPV switch, in an election where few seats changed hands anyway, ended up being minor. My detailed comments about it are here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2017/12/queensland-2017-final-results-and.html
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“Had the same primary votes been cast at an election with optional preferential voting, very few seats would have changed hands. Voter anger at the Newman government in 2015, which drove Labor’s many wins from behind on preferences despite OPV that year, was replaced with apathy about both Palaszczuk’s replacement and its opponents. The change to compulsory preferencing was seen as having backfired when the One Nation vote soared in polls, but in the end Labor would have received a slightly greater advantage statewide off Green preferences than the LNP would have off One Nation preferences, even had all the latter been distributed. To what extent that advantage would have been different under OPV – if any – is speculative.
However, compulsory preferencing had an intangible impact, since it forced major parties to make decisions about preference strategies and policy positioning in order to secure preferences. The LNP wanted to cause Labor to lose seats to One Nation, and hence had a reason to preference it in most seats (except where its candidates were too much of a liability) but this made it much easier to damage the LNP by linking it to said party, and to talk up a potential coalition involving One Nation. One Nation only won one seat as a result, so it’s likely the LNP made a strategic error by overestimating the likely seat yield of their strategy, in spite of the published modelling that showed One Nation’s vote needed to be around 20% before they started winning lots of seats. Labor seemed wide open to attack on its switch on Adani loans during the campaign as a possible sop for Green preferences, but my impression is that attacks on Labor over this (and indeed on the Premier’s obvious conflict of interest) failed to gain the traction they might have gained.
My perception is that far from harming Labor as was widely expected, the switch to compulsory preferencing was in the end close to neutral in terms of the impact on preferencing, and that the strategy of handling it actually played out in Labor’s favour.”
I notice that last night deb freck couldnt be bothered to acknowledge that Black Lives Matter, all she could do was hang shit on the Premier. What is the LNP policy on Indigenous Australians, extermination?
“Assuming that 100% of PHON’s voters will preference the LNP over the ALP is a bit of a wild gamble, methink….”
***
“plus most of PHON’s 12%”
“Most” =//= 100%.
Betting markets now have the LNP at about 60% and Labor at 40%. Not sure if that’s correct given the history of incumbent State Governments holding on provided they aren’t too ripe.
there was 3 kap 1 ind and 1 onp 1 gr elected at last election….. suspect 4/5 would support labor in minority………..also i think the net result of preferences last election was neutral…… it is any one’s election still
.
The Courier Mail had another front page article on Deb Frecklington’s unpopularity today, including leaked internal polling.
I expect that Dave Crisafulli will replace her in the next month or so, if not before.
There will then be a significant shift to the LNP in polls (if there are any), maybe to 55/45 the LNP’s way.
However, there would be some drift back over time, but the LNP will certainly be in the box seat for 30 October.
@Historyintime
I agree Historyintime what you said about Deb Frecklington being replaced. You would have to think the LNP wouldn’t have leaked that research if there weren’t some in the party who want to tear down her leadership.
But polling 55-45 to the LNP under David Crisafulli? Where did you pull that number out of? Those are Campbell Newman like numbers when he first assume the leadership and if the LNP had that internal polling David Crisafulli would have been installed as leader already. It was reported in Courier Mail the LNP corporate donors are not donating because they don’t think they can win with Frecklington which is why she may be replaced.
You say the LNP are in the ‘boxseat’ if Crisafulli assumes the leadership but you were making noises Frecklington was the favorite before the Couier Mail article came out.
Crisafulli maybe a tougher prospect for Labor but he doesn’t have the following Newman had after his career as Brisbane city lord mayor in South East Queensland. LNP are pushing the panic button because if they are to change leaders they have to do it now as the election is only four and half months away and a fixed four year term is at stake.
Nightwatchman,
The basis to my view that the two party preferred to the LNP would initially blow out to 55/45 is that it is currently 52/48, and you might think that replacement of an unpopular leader would increase the LNP’s two party vote materially.
I’m happy to add numbers to my thoughts, at least on psephological matters, rather than speaking in generalities, or like a lot on this site, thinking that any positive comment about the LNPs polling is somehow treasonous to the ALP.
If the LNP retain Deb Frecklington I think they would still be the favourite to win at the moment but a switch to Crisafulli would make them more so. The LNP only need to win 3 or 4 regional seats to form a minority government and that’s well on the cards. That said, a powerful negative campaign about cuts and privatisations could get the ALP over the line.
Tangentially, I can’t see any ON or KAP members supporting an ALP government. Their constinuencies would not allow them. In addition, Palaszczuk has harmed ALP relations with KAP.
@Historyintime
I think you need to get so caught up on one poll. And one of the reasons the LNP are so worried is because their internal polling is not as glowing then the Yougov statewide published. It was reported the LNP’s primary vote is 3% lower in the 20 most marginal seats. It shows the LNP primary was 35 per cent compared to Labor’s 32 per cent with a two party-preferred result of 50 per cent a piece.
And the LNP know that when a election is called it will favor the incumbent and undecideds will tend to likely head back to
Labor during the campaign as Deb Frecklington is not seen as a credible alternate with the voters via her personal numbers and will become a drag on the vote.
I agree there is not alot room for Labor to misstep. However Labor do have a chance to form a minority government via the Greens MP and the independent for Noosa would likely back a Labor government despite her being based a conservative seat.
Your 55-45 prediction is not credible as the election is going to be a armwrestle. There is nothing to sugget David Crisafulli will get a bounce like that and is heading for a landslide win in front of him.
I also don’t think a LNP majority government is favored at this stage. I saw their must win 11 seats target list and I just can’t see them winning the some they llisted. A minority government is a more likely scenario.
Well my snap to 55/45 in the LNPs favour when Crisafulli takes over looks wrong on both counts. He is unlikely to take over, and even if he did all the drama this week will have tarnished him somewhat.
Memo: never give credibility to anything Campbell Newman is involved in.