Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19

Scott Morrison settles in at a lofty approval rating perch, as hordes of candidates descend upon Eden-Monaro.

Firstly, as per the above post, don’t forget to give generously to the Poll Bludger’s bi-monthly donation drive. Now to an assembly of recent events in the worlds of polling and Eden-Monaro:

• The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Scott Morrison’s approval up a point to a new high of 65% and disapproval down a point to a new low of 26%, reflecting continuous improvement since a nadir of 39% and 52% in February. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53-23, compared with 50-25 last time. Albanese stands at 43% approval, up one, and 30% disapproval, up three. These numbers have been used to update the BludgerTrack trends, which can be see on the sidebar or in detail here, showing Morrison now at a plateau after his recent ascent.

• The Essential poll also finds 41% saying Jobkeeper reporting bungle reflected negatively on the federal government, compared with 43% saying it did not. “A third” wanted Jobkeeper broadened in response, along with another 20% who wanted the eligibility criteria broadened, while 45% preferred that it go to reducing the debt. The poll also featured a semi-regular suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes, which have become more favourable for both leaders across the board since January. This is especially so in the case of Morrison, and still more especially in the case of his ratings for good in a crisis (66%), leadership capability (70%) and trustworthiness (66%), which have yo-yoed between the bushfire and coronavirus crises. These ratings will be available to review in detail when the full report is published later day. UPDATE: Full report here.

• A poll by the Australia Institute finds 77% support across the country for state border closures. Labor and Greens supporters are somewhat more in favour, One Nation supporters somewhat less so. The poll was conducted online on May 27 and 28 from a sample of 1005. Small-sample state breakdowns suggested Western Australians were particularly supportive, at 88%, a finding consistent with …

• The West Australian ($) had a poll yesterday that recorded a remarkable 89% in favour of keeping the state’s borders closed, with which the state government is persisting in the face of criticism from the federal government and New South Wales government. Presumably the poll had more to it than that, but that’s all there is in the report. The poll was conducted online by Painted Dog Research on Thursday from a sample of 1000.

Eden-Monaro latest:

• With a week still to go before the closure of nominations, the ABC by-election guide records ten candidates and counting, including Cathy Griff for the Greens, Matthew Stadtmiller for Shooters Fishers and Farmers, sundry candidates for the Liberal Democrats, Science Party, Christian Democrats and Sustainable Australia, and two independents. The Nationals have also opened nominations, although they have not traditionally polled strongly in the seat. The deluge has prompted Antony Green to argue that all candidates should be required to produce 100 locally enrolled nominators. This burden is currently imposed only on independents, exemption being a perk of party registration.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced its service plan for the by-election, detailing special measures arising from COVID-19. A familiar set of social distancing rules will apply at polling booths, and mobile polling will not be conducted as normal at hospitals and aged care facilities, where “support teams” will instead assist with postal and telephone voting (the latter still only available to the visually impaired).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,003 comments on “Leadership polling, Eden-Monaro latest, yet more on COVID-19”

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  1. Now this could make things very ugly. If you can’t eat then you aren’t going to be too worried about niceties.

    US grocery costs jump the most in 46 years,
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/us-grocery-costs-jump-the-most-in-46-years-led-by-rising-prices-for-meat-and-eggs.html
    .
    People are going to go hungry’: pandemic effects could leave 54m Americans without food
    Demand for aid at food banks has soared since coronavirus has forced the economy to close and resulted in millions out of work
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/31/people-are-going-to-go-hungry-pandemic-effects-could-leave-54m-americans-without-food

  4. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol.

    An interesting article in “The Australian”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/coronavirus-retail-dumps-support-for-minimum-pay-rise/news-story/b6a24be47328171f1bf260d6b7bc3165

    Construction employers are pushing to scrap Saturday penalty rates and cut casual shifts to as few as two hours, warning that up to one-third of businesses in the industry could shut down if conditions do not improve in the next year.

    The bid to apply changes to “restrictive” industry awards for the rest of 2020, however, is being resisted by powerful construction unions, who have accused businesses of exploiting the coronavirus pandemic to attack workers.

    The standoff between builders and unions comes as the Morrison government prepares to seek consensus for industrial relations changes and industry groups demand a minimum-wage freeze for the nation’s low-paid workers be imposed for 12 months.

    etc, etc, but the comments are what are interesting

    Ann L
    1 hour ago
    Get rid of the unions and we will prosper. Freedom and flexibility are well overdue. ..take the shackles off…get rid of the parasites that stifle productivity and allow workplaces to thrive
    Andrew
    1 hour ago
    Saturday should be a normal working day with no penalty rates for any worker, not just construction.

    Two hour casual shifts are too short. You could spend more time commuting to work than actually working. Four hours is a fair minimum shift.

    Pat
    3 hours ago
    Sure cut penalty rates and make all hours ordinary hours but then pay workers sick leave, holiday pay and all other entitlements for those extra hours of work at ordinairy hours pay. Regarding 2 hours work as the minimum shift for casual workers – good luck in getting good workers for that one. Keep reducing conditions and pay and see how well you go in getting apprentices and new entrants. This critical industry will be brought down totally as highly skilled workers are replaced over time by low skilled backpackers, temporary Visa workers and international students – the employers dream but coupled to more faulty buildings and more Opal Towers. If this is the best solution that our industry associations can come up with together with their union mates – the construction industry is doomed.

    We will very quickly have a growing army of unemployed unskilled youth on Jobseeker and an underpaid, underclass of foreign construction workers. This all makes sense in a world that’s deranged.

    Does anybody remember the “Food for Britain” after WW2?

    May have to be restarted for the US of A. UK and maybe ourselves.

  5. Chip Rolley
    @ChipRolley
    7m
    Yes they cleared the peaceful protesters for a photo op. Bad enough. But they scheduled the photo op so the police would have to clear the peaceful protesters ensuring there were scenes of conflict, setting the stage for Trump’s speech.

    Janine Perrett
    @PerrettReport
    ·
    14m
    This US President made the speech about him rather than the good of the country. To hold it outside in Rose Garden with riots as backdrop showed for him it was a reality show. His specific mention of Second Amendment rights was incendiary and only fuels fear not calm the nation

  6. C@t

    I’m sorry, but today is not the day to give us a dissertation on threatened species. Today there is a guy in charge of what was once the Beacon of Democracy for the world declaring Martial Law in that country so that he might cling onto power!
    ————
    You really religiously believe this twaddle?

  7. Bizarre.

    Trump just did “street walk” (surrounded by hundreds of armed guards), so he could stand outside a church and hold up a bible with some of his flunkies.

    Then he went back inside.

  9. Victoria

    Yes its one reason why I though Sanders was the best bet and not Biden. Sanders was addressing the underclass directly.

    The Democrats should have taken the gamble. The Establishment Democrats did not see why Sanders was the best bet. Now we have martial law declared after a few violent incidents that are the exception to the majority.

    Why? People not being represented. Those voter suppression efforts have had their effect. Its no wonder people are in the streets protesting. Not only do you have police brutality as the norm the whole system is rigged to oppress and diminish a lot of people.

    As Martin Luther King Junior III said. In 1968 King was with sanitation worker demanding dignity. 58 years later nothing has changed.

  11. Bushfire Bill @ #106 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 9:14 am

    Bizarre.

    Trump just did “street walk” (surrounded by hundreds of armed guards), so he could stand outside a church and hold up a bible with some of his flunkies.

    Then he went back inside.

    David Pepper
    @DavidPepper

    An egregious violation of First Amendment rights so Trump could have a photo-op.

    Peter Baker
    @peterbakernyt

    Evidently the police and troops fired tear gas at peaceful protesters to push them back to make it possible for Trump to go to St. John’s Church for a photo op.

  12. Just wait for the next round of polling.
    That Robodebt scandal debacle fiasco will take quite a bit of the shine of the Prophet Scrooter.
    Mark Mundo’s words!
    Mark ’em I tells ya!

    White hot this issue is out there!
    White hot I tells ya!!

    And the leader of the opposition, Andrew Allbany (I think that’s right?…is that right?) anyway that other bloke will rise like a phoenix!

    A phoenix I tells ya!!!

  13. Brian Bennett, Snr WH Correspondent for Time magazine:

    Brian Bennett
    @ByBrianBennett

    At 5:05 pm, I counted 9 two and a half ton military trucks carrying troops in tan uniforms and helmets pull off 17th Street into the White House grounds.

  14. Bushfire Bill

    Apparently the historic church had a fire. Conveniently in a ‘recently renovated room’ rather than any old bit. Fox News will be a bit sad as the church’s minister when they interviewed him said that “whoever did it does not represent the vast majority of protesters”

  16. You should hear some of the media coverage on Australian media at the moment about Trump’s walkies stunt…falling for it hook line and sinker…especially that Kotchy dweeb…..

  17. Five hours ago

    @Kamala Harris tweets

    It’s been one week since George Floyd was murdered and the other three officers involved still have not been held accountable.

  18. Yes its one reason why I though Sanders was the best bet and not Biden. Sanders was addressing the underclass directly.

    The rapper KillerMike who gave that speech in Atlanta recently is a Sanders fan.

  19. Senior Writer Politico:
    Lois Romano
    @loisromano

    He is provoking the protesters after curfew. There are no words. And no bottom.

    John Weaver Project Lincoln founder
    @jwgop

    There is one terrorist in our nation: @realDonaldTrump

  20. Whatever is the point in Trump holding up a bible?
    Is he pretending that any God is on his side? Or that he is on God’s side? No God would want him.

  22. Get real. Bernie Sanders would have been one of the first ones in handcuffs. At least Joe Biden has the political legitimacy, and Secret Service protection detail, of having been Vice President for 8 years. Much harder to touch up. People like Bernie Sanders, even though a Senator, are much more easily swept away at times like this.

  23. “Bizarre.

    Trump just did “street walk” (surrounded by hundreds of armed guards), so he could stand outside a church and hold up a bible with some of his flunkies.

    Then he went back inside.“

    Not bizarre at all. Small town America will love this. As they will the seemingly incoherent reference to the second amendment in his ‘law and order’ President speech immediately before.

    Voter turnout amongst the base will be huge.

  24. lizzie @ #58 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 6:28 am

    @brandongmz7
    ·
    1h
    Ive just learned the rubber bullets are not made of rubber at all, they have a thin covering of rubber but are essentialy cannonballs, Lets stop calling them, rubber bullets, they are cannon balls being shot at the heads and limbs and eyeballs of protestors

    This is from the Wikipedia page on rubber bullets.

    Has this changed, or are police ignoring it or not being trained properly?

    The intended use is to fire at the ground so that the round bounces up and hits the target on the legs, causing pain but not injury.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rubber_bullet

  26. lizzie

    He has to convince the evangelicals this is the moral choice.

    If they buy that they truly lost any claim to christianity they had left.

    Of course it could just be Trump is so weak he will hold any prop to seem authoritative.

  30. Police tear-gassed protesters for Trump to violate curfew for a photo-op posing with a Bible

    On Monday evening, police and the military launched tear gas against protesters near the White House.

    Reporters on the scene are now reporting the action was done so Trump could visit St. John’s church, where he posed with a Bible for a photo opportunity.

    Trump’s visit was in violation of the curfew imposed on Washington, DC.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/06/police-tear-gassed-protesters-for-trump-to-violate-curfew-for-a-photo-op-posing-with-a-bible/

  31. A lawyers’ perspective:

    Ethan Bearman, Esq.
    @EthanBearman

    Make no mistake, the president declared war on Americans, our Constitution, and our very lives with that speech and invoking the 1807 Insurrection Act.

    Congress must act to prevent this.

    The Posse Comitatus Act was enacted to stop this, but Congress must act.

  32. lizzie @ #129 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 9:33 am

    Barney

    Pics show police aiming directly at the eyes of journo and prtesters.

    new desert golfing 18 hole speedrun world record
    @IexistentiaI
    cops don’t even call them “rubber bullets,” they call them 40mm. “rubber bullets” is 100% a cop apologist media invention to reduce the apparent severity of what is actually a horrific weapon that can absolutely kill a person

  33. Simultaneously a pandemic, a recession and a citizen revolution. Trump’s achievements are the greatest. He will be proud.

  34. Call me cray cray.

    Trump knows what messages he is sending out.

    Who is behind qanon. The word out there is that some random idiot started posting it on 4chan etc.

    I believe it is psyops.

    The qanon crowd have been conscripted into believing Trump is the saviour
    Apparently Obama, clinton, all the Hollywood elite including the likes of Tom Hanks etc are all Pedos and sacrifice children etc.
    The qanon crowd have been made to expect the rapture, with Trump rounding up all the guilty democrats etc
    Trump holding up the Bible and doing what he did, is definitely a message to this crowd.

    Ive always felt that qanon was created to project the guilt that lies elsewhere.

    The scary thing is that the pandemic has focussed the minds of these cultists.

  35. Andrew_Earlwood @ #117 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 9:29 am

    “Bizarre.

    Trump just did “street walk” (surrounded by hundreds of armed guards), so he could stand outside a church and hold up a bible with some of his flunkies.

    Then he went back inside.“

    Not blizzard at all. Small town America will love this. As they will the seemingly incoherent reference to the second amendment in his ‘law and order’ President speech immediately before.

    Voter turnout amongst the base will be huge.

    ‘Small town America will love this’
    No question.
    Small brain Australian media lapping it up as well…..

  36. @karenko tweets

    I interviewed someone today who has been studying economic inequality in the US for at least two decades and he told me he was surprised the protests hadn’t happened earlier

  37. Cud Chewer @ #83 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 6:52 am

    With that Queensland man
    He initially tested positive. Then a second test was negative.
    Given that we are now discovering the limitations of the “gold standard” test, this still leaves the question hanging. Was the first test correct and…?

    The second test was disregarded because it was thought tainted.

    How do you get a tainted negative test?

    I can understand the possibility of a tainted positive test, but a negative one!

  39. It is not just white people that have guns. Many of those black people protesting have them, and left them at home. If the MAGA vigilantes start coming out it will be different. And the nutters know it. Most are cowards and wont risk open direct conflict with armed blacks or very large crowds that could overwhelm them. So expect drive by shootings or long range stuff. Everyone knows this would get very ugly. Trump is betting on it. Sick sad angry little man. Sick sad angry country.

  41. AE

    Both of your comments re US….I agree. Unfortunately, Trump and the people behind him must not be underestimated.

  42. Biden is the presumptive Democratic candidate because he won the primaries and Sanders lost. This has nothing to do with any so-called Establishment. It is a reflection of the votes cast by ordinary people, whether they are members of a party or not.

    The Splitters do not want to accept this. But it is the true story here.

  43. Finally, the adults in the room are speaking up:

    Molly Jong-Fast
    @MollyJongFast

    Good

    TinaSfon
    @TinaSfon

    Governor Pritzker on what he’ll do if Trump mobilizes the military in Illinois: “Well, it’s illegal. He can’t do it. We won’t request military assistance here in the state of Illinois. I can’t imagine why any governor is going to do that. This is, it’s ridiculous.”

  44. Walking with Trump to the church were Bill Barr, Mark Esper, Jared Kushner, Senator John Thune (I think), and Kayleigh McEnany. Plus the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces I think.

    Not an ounce of care or concern amongst them. This makes them feel important. There is no gravitas – just delusions of grandeur.

  45. Simon Katich @ #144 Tuesday, June 2nd, 2020 – 9:48 am

    Walking with Trump to the church were Bill Barr, Mark Esper, Jared Kushner, Senator John Thune (I think), and Kayleigh McEnany. Plus the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces I think.

    Not an ounce of care or concern amongst them. This makes them feel important. There is no gravitas – just delusions of grandeur.

    If only there was a wiggling your little finger emoji.

  48. If only there was a wiggling your little finger emoji.

    Plenty of those walking dont have little fingers. Just empty husks, chaff, pretending to be bread.

  49. Barney

    Police attacking the media is surely a first. They have been protected in most war zones (doesn’t mean they’re not in danger, I know).

  50. Briefly

    This is beyond politics as usual. This is about preventing martial law.

    The inequality reached such peaks people are out in the streets. Yet its still mainly peaceful.

    The so called “Bernie Bros” were on the money about the inequality and lack of dignity of the American Underclass.

    Leave your rhetoric at home and at least acknowledge the realities. I did not say Sanders would have won or the primary choice would have been different.

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