Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

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  1. Barney

    It relates to her grandparents. I imagine it would be very hurtful. These LNP types need to act like adults.

  2. LVT

    Steve Bracks – dump the unions comments are good too.

    Yes, I saw his comments the other day.

    No role for unions in Labor policy rethink: Bracks:
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/no-role-for-unions-in-labor-policy-rethink-bracks-20200514-p54t0s

    In an interview with federal Labor frontbencher Clare O’Neil for her weekly podcast entitled The Long View, Mr Bracks said the union movement should be treated as no more than any other interest group.
    :::
    “The trade unions don’t represent the bulk of the workforce any longer, they’re a diminishing and less influential group in the workforce, they don’t have the same sort of stock of talented people that we used to draw on for the Labor Party.

    “The trade union movement is not going to give us the way forward for this and I think that’s been part of the legacy problem we’ve had to date.”

    imo ACTU and the unions need to “dump” labor

  3. The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services says it is working with two Melbourne businesses where Covid cases have been confirmed.

    The businesses are a Dominos outlet in Fairfield, in the inner north-east, and The Comfort Group, a bedmaker with headquarter at Deer Park in Melbourne’s west.

    “All close and casual contacts will be tested, and quarantine requirements are being implemented as necessary.

  4. I think Pegasus as long as 20 years ago people like the late John Button where calling for an amicable divorce.

  5. Well that didn’t take long. Went to my local Coles, a large store in inner city Brisbane. No distancing, no additional guards and every single self service checkout open again. Completely business as usual.

  6. yabba

    The entire organisation is dysfunctional. Morale is through the floor. Most of the decent staff have taken redundancy, and the ‘contract’ support staff on telephone duty are untrained, and under-supervised. A shambles.

    With the real crime being the scum designed it to be that way. Sadly I no longer have any confidence that should Labor win the next election that things will change much 🙁

  7. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 5:50 pm
    ________________________________
    Any update on the SA Libs little problem?

  8. Those engaged observers will know that Trump and his cronies are ramping the bullshit up to eleventy, to try to make a break, any break, in the weight of bad press, bad polls, bad policy which is going to see Dotard get the bumrush out.

    Heroic Trump videos? Tick.
    Call Joe Biden a paedo? Tick.
    Blame China for everything? Tick.

    Some really weird stuff.

  9. The Chinese Ambassador to Israel has a problem..

    ‘Chinese Ambassador to Israel Du Wei was found dead Sunday in his apartment in a Tel Aviv suburb. Police have launched an investigation into his death.

    Wei, 58, was found dead in his bed and appears to have died in his sleep. left behind a wife and a son. He was appointed as China’s envoy to Israel in February.

    On Friday, the Chinese Embassy in Israel responded to criticism voiced by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during his visit to Israel last week, calling his remarks that China had concealed information about the outbreak of the coronavirus from the world “absurd.”

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-chinese-ambassador-to-israel-found-dead-in-his-home-1.8851513

  10. sprocket_ @ #1210 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 5:58 pm

    Those engaged observers will know that Trump and his cronies are ramping the bullshit up to eleventy, to try to make a break, any break, in the weight of bad press, bad polls, bad policy which is going to see Dotard get the bumrush out.

    Heroic Trump videos? Tick.
    Call Joe Biden a paedo? Tick.
    Blame China for everything? Tick.

    Some really weird stuff.

    Yeah, when Brad Parscale said they were going to release the Death Star, I didn’t think they meant cheesy Sci Fi movies!

  11. Looking closely at the latest stats suggest the US has passed the peak of infections and its likely to be at where most of Western Europe is now (ie declining active cases) by the end of the month.

    So June to October or 5 months. A lot is going to happen in that time.

    So it comes down to 4 states

    Arizona (11 votes) – which ultimately will go Republican. (If Trump loses Arizona its good night Irene).

    and Biden holding all of

    Pensylvannia
    Wisconsin
    Michigan

    At the moment Predictit – has Trump at 49 c to win and Biden at 44c to win.

    Interestingly Nate Silver (whose reputation rests on getting it right) doesn’t appear to be committing on the outcome.

  12. What say you Bob Sprocket? If you had to bet your copy of Chester A Arthur’s collected speeches are you prepared to call it (given your vehemence about Trump)?

  13. Taylormade says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 4:26 pm
    People on here seem to have no idea how jobkeeper works.
    Individuals cannot apply for Jobkeeper. It is done through thier employer or other type of business structure.

    I certainly know about JobKeeper because I am applying on behalf of a small not-for-profit. It looks simple in the beginning but then the complications arise. There have already been a number of changes since JobKeeper was launched in March.

    There can also be complications for low income part time workers (e.g. students) who suddenly find their income under JobKeeper temporarily boosted to $1,500 per fortnight and this then affects any Centrelink payments or other allowances. The ATO even warns of employees in this situation potentially being pursued by the robodebt monster (or words to that effect).

  14. Bushfire Bill @ #1168 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 4:26 pm

    Screaming at me and throwing insults won’t help you. I’m not the person you have to convince.

    No, you are just a pompous git who keeps insinuating that Centrelink couldn’t possibly be wrong (have you not heard of the appeal process? What do you think it is for?), that our business must be dodgy, that we rip off our customers, and that we must be trying to rort the system – just because we are following the advice of people who actually know a bit more than you do about how it works.

  15. SK, I think people on Jobkeeper are not counted as unemployed or their jobs counted as ‘lost’. This may be the reason the unemployment rate is ‘only’ 6.2.

    Thanks to those who replied.
    Yeah, I wasnt counting them. I was trying to work the 600k who officially lost their job into a 1% rise in unemployment.
    Participation rate drop doesnt account for it.
    The fact that about half of those 600k jobs were part time doesnt account for it.

    It must be they havent filtered into the unemployment rate yet.

    I still question how 600k jobs could be lost with the jobkeeper system in place. Seems a very high number when you consider businesses were being offered a bucket load of cash to keep them on. No doubt there will be a breakdown of those 600k jobs soon and a deeper look at who they are and why they were let go.

    Where are the stories of those 600k? I would have thought they would have been front page spreads of this considering the RW are pushing so hard for a big relaxation of the restrictions. I must be cocooned in a tower because I know of only 4 or 5 who have lost their jobs while there must be over a hundred I know who kept their jobs thanks only to jobkeeper. And I know plenty who are still working as usual.

    I am shocked (not in a disbelieving way) by that 600k number. This is a huge human and nationwide economic and social story. Either it is not being talked/written about or I am not watching/reading the right media. I need to rethink where I get my ‘news’.

  16. Strange, or maybe not. This is coming from US conservative RW peeps. The Quincy Institute a Koch bro project. Yet it sounds pretty ‘lefty mainstream’. A move to isolationism ?
    .

    It Took COVID To Expose The Fraud Of ‘American Exceptionalism’

    Our leaders were so preoccupied with remaking the world they failed to see that our country was falling apart around them.

    Has the time come to bury the conceit of American exceptionalism? In an article for the American edition of The Spectator, Quincy Institute President Andrew Bacevich concludes just that:

    The coronavirus pandemic is a curse. It should also serve as an opportunity, Americans at long last realizing that they are not God’s agents. Out of suffering and loss, humility and self-awareness might emerge. We can only hope.

    The heart of the American exceptionalism in question is American hubris. It is based on the assumption that we are better than the rest of the world, and that this superiority both entitles and obligates us to take on an outsized role in the world.

    In our current foreign policy debates, the phrase “American exceptionalism” has served as a shorthand for justifying and celebrating U.S. dominance, and when necessary it has served as a blanket excuse for U.S. wrongdoing.

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/it-took-covid-to-expose-the-fraud-of-american-exceptionalism/

  17. RD

    Asio could question children and more easily use more tracking devices under new powers

    Morrison government’s proposed changes to spy agency’s rules draw fire from Greens and Law Council

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/13/asio-could-question-children-and-more-easily-use-more-tracking-devices-under-new-powers

    The Greens accused the government of a “dangerous and cynical” attempt “to use the pandemic as cover for the increased scope of the surveillance state”.
    :::
    Labor called for the bill to be sent back to the parliamentary joint committee on intelligence and security to be scrutinised “as is normal practice”.

    Labor’s home affairs spokesperson, Kristina Keneally, said the opposition would “always take the advice of our national security agencies” while noting the powers in the legislation were “ongoing matters which have been extensively considered since they were first created by John Howard”.

    The Greens senator Nick McKim said the national terrorism threat in Australia had not increased for more than five years “and yet we have been confronted with wave after wave of legislation”. He said Dutton had failed to justify interrogating children as young as 14.

  18. ASIO legislation to allow spies to question terror suspects as young as 14 introduced to Parliament

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-14/peter-dutton-introduces-bill-giving-asio-powers-to-talk-to-teens/12246886

    Labor backed the recommendations in 2018 and Shadow Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said the intelligence committee would “give very rigorous scrutiny” to the bill presented to Parliament.

    “Particularly bills like this that deeply affect civil liberties in Australia,” Mr Dreyfus said.

    “It’s been quite a time coming — the particular power is prompted in part by the shocking murder of Curtis Cheng in 2015 by a 15-year-old.

    “It’s well-known that some of these terrorist groups prey on younger people, horribly influence younger people to participate in their terror activities.”

  19. “ People on here seem to have no idea how jobkeeper works.
    Individuals cannot apply for Jobkeeper. It is done through thier employer or other type of business structure.”

    Taylormade, and our lil’ Green pony who chimed in to endorse this shite are fuckwits. Amongst other character deficits.

    I’m an individual. I’ve applied for JobKeeper. I’ve been paid JobKeeper. The end.

  20. Fulvio Sammut:

    [‘I don’t think anyone has suggested that, P1.’]

    You really are a smartarse. I’m sure your mother loves you?

  21. Bracks isn’t the first to talk about breaking the link between the ALP and the unions. I don’t think it’s possible, though I agree with the idea.

    Instead, a new Social Democrat Party will have to be founded. It will have to consist of most of the current Greens and the ALP, but with the dark elements like the SDA and the Shortcons etc are excised. I’m not sure it will be possible to accomplish. Victoria must lead the way though.

  22. nath
    Where do you reckon the SDA leadership would find their new roost ? Family First, Poorlene’s place or Coalition ?

  23. Lars Von Trier @ #915 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 6:18 pm

    Interestingly Nate Silver (whose reputation rests on getting it right) doesn’t appear to be committing on the outcome.

    Nate Silver has never ‘committed’ on any outcome, ever.
    In the lead up to, and on the eve of elections he publishes calculated percentage probabilities of alternative outcomes, based on a monte carlo analysis involving thousands of model runs.
    This process put the likelihood of a Trump win in 2016 at 35%.

    His 538 site aggregates polls, applying correction factors to reduce ‘house effects’, and using weightings based on proven the historical reliability and consistency of pollsters, and how recently each poll has been taken. He does not give opinions on likely outcomes this far from an election, but he and his colleagues often provide reasoned commentary on historical precedents that they can identify that might provide some guidance in interpreting current poll data and trends.

  24. “ I’m an individual.
    You certainly were.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0Q5JFHrGNk”

    An ind-a-bloody-dividual, to be precise.

    Whilst I’m more of an opera guy, I reckon our singing and dancing styles are pretty much the same. In fact, other than the fact that Jacko is 6’4” and I’m 5’10” (but build like a brick shithouse), we are doppelgängers.

  25. Yabba wrote:

    The lovely lady over the road from me works at Centrelink… She tells me that Centrelink are simply overwhelmed at present, and that their computer systems are unreliable, internally contradictory, and just ‘down’ several times a day, for hours at a time.

    In many encounters with Centrelink people and systems I have almost never had a transaction that worked ‘first time’, and have found on multiple occasions that their representatives do no know their own rules, and are rude and dismissive. ..

    The entire organisation is dysfunctional. Morale is through the floor. Most of the decent staff have taken redundancy, and the ‘contract’ support staff on telephone duty are untrained, and under-supervised. A shambles.

    A bit late to the party, Yabba, after nearly 24 hours of abuse from P1, blaming me for all her problems, but basically you confirm what I wrote about Centrelink.

    ● Dysfunctional,
    ● Would rather say no than make a mistake,
    ● Call centre staff untrained (and not real Centrelink people),
    ● Most transactions fail first time,
    ● Computer prefers Centrelink “reality” to real Reality.

    I don’t know whether you get mixed up with applications that involve corporates/businesses setups, but they add the seven circles of Hell to an application.

    We know that P1 has some kind of business: a B&B or holiday home type of setup. 14 separate documents filed would corroborate that her situation is not just that of an unemployed (and unencumbeted) youth with the arse out of his pants trying to score the dole.

    This involves an accountant, probably a company structure, negative gearing, a “tax-effective” expenses arrangement, ambiguoys assets, and employees of some kind (as Job Keeper was also applied for).

    In other words: just the kind of complicated mess Centrelink loves to get their teeth into.

    The Golden Rule of Centrelink: “First say ‘No’. Then sit back and see how keen they are.”

    ● Do they have assets they can liquidate?
    ● Money in the bank they could spend?
    ● Any other assets, even ones they’ve forgotten about from 10 years ago?
    ● Where does the bushfire insurance payout figure in all this?
    ● Have they tried to get a job? Even cleaning toilets? Stacking shelves?
    ● What about “Mutual Obligation”? Any implications there?
    ● Tax returns up to date? Completely?
    ● Job Keeper: are they on-paper employees of their own company?

    I can think of a thousand other questions. I’ve been asked most of them, either in relation to myself, my wife, or us as a couple over the years.

    First time, back in the early 2000s, I gave up. But my asset register – actually my then company asset register – was immortal. They were STILL adding that into my current personal assets (and of course those of my wife) as late as 2018… without telling me, or producing any documentation whatsoever that I could inspect. It was just “there” as a number that kyboshed any dealing either myself or my wife had with them for a considerable period of time. Until one day I asked: “What’s that $150,000 that keeps cropping up as an ‘asset’?”

    Even after I gave up on Centrelink in 2003, they didn’t give up on me. They remembered everything like it was yesterday, and just as “real” as today.

    It had been up to me to tell them that money was long gone. It never occurred to me to do so. Never.

    One thing Centrelink will never do is fill out your forms for you. If they’re not oerfect, or a bit ambiguous, or out of date, then it’s YOUR problem, not theirs.

    Next!

  26. poroti
    says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 7:04 pm
    nath
    Where do you reckon the SDA leadership would find their new roost ? Family First, Poorlene’s place or Coalition ?
    _____________________
    Interesting question. They could back a Catholic themed party and use their preferences, but that’s not they want. They want seats in Parliament. So I’m guessing they will go to the Libs.

  27. Andrew_Earlwood:

    [‘Thanks, you champion cut ‘n paster and genera, all round feckless wonder.’]

    Really, dear. We expect better, lest we’ll be judged fecklessly.

  28. Nick Dyrenfuth predicts a Labor primary of 30% at the next election.

    Although it does appear Albo has lifted it from the Shortenite low of 33% to 36% atm.

  29. AE

    I always know I am on the right track when you appear to bloviate, rant, rave, spit and froth in my general direction.

    I am always happy to provide you with an excuse, no matter how small, to don your metaphorical steel-capped boots. A bully, wannabe head-kicker and coward always needs a punching bag when he is filled with angst and distemper.

    You’re welcome.

  30. P1 wrote:

    No, you are just a pompous git who keeps insinuating that Centrelink couldn’t possibly be wrong (have you not heard of the appeal process? What do you think it is for?), that our business must be dodgy, that we rip off our customers, and that we must be trying to rort the system – just because we are following the advice of people who actually know a bit more than you do about how it works.

    It’s immaterial what I think, P1. It’s what Centrelink thinks that’s your problem.

    You’ve told us that your MP said you were entitled to something. Someone at the call centre also said so. Your accountant got all the tax returns and other documents ready.

    You put in your application.

    It failed.

    This has nothing whatsoever to do with me. Get it?

    I didn’t reject your application. Centrelink did. Both of them dead certs, according to those giving you advice, and they still failed.

    That ought to tell you something. Somewhere in your personal situation there is something that causes Centrelink to hesitate in giving you the dole.

    Stop squealing about persecution and Centrelink trying to “break you”, and find out what’s the problem. Go in personally, join the queue where everyone can see you (like everybody else has to) and quit thinking you’re special.

  31. Re Centrelink. I worked in a backroom role for them for 18 months.
    In 2016 I had to apply for carer pension. It took 2 attempts and 8 weeks wait the 2nd time to come through. I remember thinking what if we were really desperate for that money. I was close to giving up despite that advantages in background and knowledge that I held.

  32. A_E
    A barrister is getting Jobkeeper- really? What has happened to noblesse oblige?
    The government has gone mad

  33. Bushfire Bill @ #1241 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 7:13 pm

    We know that P1 has some kind of business: a B&B or holiday home type of setup. 14 separate documents filed would corroborate that her situation is not just that of an unemployed (and unencumbeted) youth with the arse out of his pants trying to score the dole.

    This involves an accountant, probably a company structure, negative gearing, a “tax-effective” expenses arrangement, ambiguoys assets, and employees of some kind (as Job Keeper was also applied for).

    Christ, you really have no clue, have you? You are making it more and more clear that you have not dealt with Centrelink recently, nor with the ATO, and are now resorting to just making shit up. Why?

    You want some facts, you idiot? Here are some facts:

    We do not have a company.
    We do not negatively gear anything.
    We do not have employees.
    We do not have “ambiguous assets” – we barely have even one “asset”, which is our home.
    We do not have “tax effective expense arrangements”.

    Yes, we do have an accountant. You repeat this accusation so often it appears you think this means we must be dodgy. This just shows how utterly out of touch you are – because we have no telephone service, and no mobile reception, we can no longer deal with the ATO directly. We have to go through a registered tax accountant. It is the only option available to us.

    You really need to grow up a bit, BB. You are making more and more of a fool of yourself.

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