Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

  1. If Mundo is about taking the game relentlessly to the Tories and hitting them over the scone with the almost bottomless barrel of bullshit acts that they have done over the last decade,

    well, all I can say is, ‘May Mundo’s tribe increase.’

    BTW

    Mundo is true.

  2. Cud
    I think all employee ( casual or permanent) should be allowed two tests over the next twelve months, the time off is from test to result, the employee gets a certificate when they do the test, the employer pays the days as sick leave and it is part of the BAS statement.

  3. mundo, an anonymous poster, can’t bring himself to talk about himself in the first person. That is a serious identity issue.

  4. Lars Von Trier @ #1057 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 11:38 am

    Does anybody think Mike Kelly will be the last Labor retirement this term?

    The first of a few I reckon. Even though opposition is Labor’s natural office, and clearly they’re not averse to it, I suspect many may have wanted a turn at actual government but most see the graffiti on the wall.

  5. LvT, you need to go off and write some new lines. The ones you have been repeating endlessly over the last few days are getting tired, real fast. They have no substance to them. A flummery has more substance than your baseless jibes at Labor. Nevertheless, I know that you are shameless, as well as talentless, and so will not be going anywhere.
    Mores the pity.


  6. mundo says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 12:03 pm

    Lars Von Trier @ #1057 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 11:38 am

    Does anybody think Mike Kelly will be the last Labor retirement this term?

    The first of a few I reckon.

    Glad to see your recovering.

  7. Marcos De Feilittt @ #1058 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 11:41 am

    If Mundo is about taking the game relentlessly to the Tories and hitting them over the scone with the almost bottomless barrel of bullshit acts that they have done over the last decade,

    well, all I can say is, ‘May Mundo’s tribe increase.’

    BTW

    Mundo is true.

    Clearly you have not understood a word of what Mundo has being saying.
    Nor did you ‘get’ my Bruce Von Hawker reference in a reply to AE.
    Surely one of the wittiest repostes of the morning if Mundo does say so himself.

  8. Mundo’s identity is well known.

    Mundo is not outspoken
    But he likes to speak
    And loves to be spoken to
    Mundo is happy in his work
    We’re only making plans for Mundo

  9. mundo
    says:
    Sunday, May 17, 2020 at 12:10 pm
    Surely one of the wittiest repostes of the morning if Mundo does say so himself.
    _______________
    wanker.

  10. Oakeshott Country @ #1067 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 12:10 pm

    26 minutes today Lars – you’ve done much better thaN last night

    Oh, please excuse me for not being so sad as to have PB as the centre of my universe, as you and Loser von Thrombosis seem to have. Neddy No Friends.

    Yep, I have been on a Skype call to the US for the last hour and trivialities had to wait.

  11. The Geelong Football club has confirmed new recruit Jack Steven is in hospital following an incident last night.

    The Herald Sun is reporting the 30-year-old sustained a stab wound to the chest after an assault on Saturday night.

    Police are investigating the matter.

  12. Ryan Struyk‏Verified account @ryanstruyk

    Reported US coronavirus cases on date:

    Feb. 16: 15 cases
    Mar. 16: 4,459 cases
    Apr. 16: 671,151 cases
    May 16: 1, 507, 773 cases

    Reported US coronavirus deaths on date:

    Feb. 16: 0 deaths
    Mar. 16: 86 deaths
    Apr. 16: 33,268 deaths
    May 16: 90, 113 deaths

  13. Oh, please excuse me for not being so sad as to have PB as the centre of my universe
    I never know if you have a well developed sense of irony or just a lack of self awareness

  14. Oakeshott Country @ #1078 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 12:30 pm

    Oh, please excuse me for not being so sad as to have PB as the centre of my universe
    I never know if you have a well developed sense of irony or just a lack of self awareness

    Oh I get it. You were the nerdy kid at school the highlight of whose year was getting one over on the popular group. It kept you and all your sad little friends sustained over in the corner of the school yard where you had been banished to, until it was your time to shine again the next year.

  15. If you compared Victorian and New South Wales’ rates of testing with nations with the same Or higher populations, New South Wales would be in the top 10 and Victoria would be in the top five worldwide.

  16. Advice from vic health minister.

    Jenny Mikakos MP #StayHomeSaveLives
    @JennyMikakos
    ·
    1h
    Over the past 3 weeks we’ve undertaken a massive #COVID19
    testing blitz – giving Victoria the highest per capita testing rate in Australia. Doing so much testing was about seeing the extent of the virus’ transmission in the community

    1h
    After processing 233,000 tests we found 39 diagnosed cases (unrelated to outbreaks or travellers in mandatory quarantine). This gives us confidence to begin to gradually reopen cafes , restaurants & the dining areas of pubs & clubs from 1 June, initially with 20 patrons. 2/3

    @JennyMikakos
    ·
    1h
    Before then we’ll be working with the hospitality sector to make sure they have in place the necessary guidance & measures they need to keep staff & patrons safe. And we will keep on testing to track how we’re going. So keep getting tested, even if you have mild symptoms. 3/3

  17. So Birmingham is upset that his Chinese counterpart will not answer his calls.

    Perhaps he should have a word with his LNP stablemate Christensen – and remind him that summonsing the Chinese ambassador to appear before a Senate committee is not the best way to encourage that country’s cooperation.

  18. PeeBee @ #975 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:42 am

    BB, interesting experience you had on Centrelink.

    What a shame you didn’t have P1 as your advisor. Your issues would have been resolved in quick time. Just like hers.

    Centrelink has gone a bit downhill since BB’s day. Still, well done him for being able to remember so far back at all

    I remind P1 that it’s not me who has the problem with Centrelink. It’s her. So why she is blaming me for her misfortune is puzzling.

    Of course, if I had insinuated dementia in a commenter older than myself, as P1 insinuated in that reply to Pee Bee above, she would have branded me as “ageist”, and most likely accused me of “egregiously mocking serious societal mental health issues” etc. etc.

    But she gives herself a free pass to use unfounded generalizations and slag-offs (that she would unhesitatingly condemn in others), because Truth Tellers like herself have a duty to call it as it is, without fear or favour. She is not the only one here to do that. It’s usually the big squealers and finger-pointers here who are the worst offenders.

    This kind of mindless, drive-by insult only confirms what has been apparent for a long time: lady, you have a serious attitude problem, and a too high opinion of yourself. While we all have those faults to a greater or lesser degree, your attitude is now doing you and your family a lot of financial harm, for which you are blaming all the wrong people.

    Blame yourself.

    P1 is someone who has come on this board to whinge about not getting Centrelink benefits, despite (as she tells us) doing “everything they told her to do”. This is, as anyone who’s ever dealt with Centrelink would know, merely providing them with copious ammunition to deny her claim.

    The Golden Rule of Centrelink is: “The more complicated your life is, the more your application is guaranteed to fail” – usually for a reason no-one will tell you.

    Centrelink also told her (verbally and anonymously) that she was sure to receive the benefits sought: again, as anyone who has dealt with Centrelink knows, not worth a tinker’s cuss.

    She quotes her local MP giving similar assurances of success: again, pointless. Water off a duck’s back as far as Centrelink is concerned.

    She even asserts (and this is part of the greater general insult, I think, implying dementia and ignorance of modern ways in myself) that it’s I who doesn’t understand how Centrelink works, at least as expertly as she does. And if I ever did understand, it’s a miracle I remembered any of it. Truly cutting P1 classic put-downs, all. I should be shattered.

    Except for one thing…

    How come I am successful in my dealings with Centrelink, and she has failed; and failed for reasons they won’t even tell her?

    Take two case studies:

    1. Simple
    A young boy I know up here, out of even casual work at the local supermarket, with two changes of clothes, an Xbox, a bomb car and no money gets $750 per week dole, just by phoning up Centrelink and telling them he’s been fired. This is $550 more per week from the dole than he was making by actually going to work.

    2. Complicated
    A family, man, woman, kids, having just received a bushfire-related insurance payout, also want the taxpayer to give them an additional bushfire-related payout. This is inexplicably rejected.

    Not to be discouraged, they apply for both Job Keeper, and Job Seeker benefits. Someone (who has not been introduced to the bored, but anonymous Centrelink assessor who’s handling their case, and 500 other cases simultaneously) told them that if they didn’t get the one, it was only because they were sure to get the other.

    Surprisingly (to them) they got neither. This is despite filling out form after form, spending hours on the phone to equally bored “Centrelink” call-centre operators,who, it turns out, don’t even work for Centrelink, not really, paying their accountant (!) to prepare a dozen or more documents (presumably including tax returns showing they are negatively gearing their expensive B&B holiday home down the South Coast, and God forbid if a “Pty. Ltd.” is mentioned anywhere in their pages).

    When they ask for reasons why their application was declined, they are not given one, but are assured they will “get a letter”.

    ********

    Now, if YOU were a bored, but overworked Centrelink assessor, tasked with untangling these two cases dumped onto your desk, which one would YOU find it easier to approve with a quick tick-and-flick?

    Centrelink, despite what P1’s MP told her, are not in the business of subsidising complicated business scenarios riven with what look like (doesn’t matter whether they are, or not) tax dodges and expenses reimbursement scenarios, slickly prepared by sharp accountants. Nor are they in the business of preserving any assets or lifestyles in any way related to these (again what appears to be, in Centrelink’s eyes – and these are the only eyes that matter in these cases) self-serving arrangements.

    Give them a genuinely broke 25 year-old who’s lost a job stacking shelves, any day of the week. And that goes double if everything he owns really did go up in the bushfires.

  19. I think everyone should be grateful to BB for sharing his many decades experiences of dealing with Centrelink. I think that’s how he ended up here. He was looking for a payment and hit a P instead of a D!


  20. Rex Douglas says:

    The Dems are ignorantly going ahead with a dead weight.

    The Dems don’t have the option the greens and all the minor parties have; they have a clear method of nominating their candidate and he won.

  21. People think ‘Oh. We’ll plant trees and everything else will follow’ … Well, it doesn’t necessarily happen that way.

    Thanks BK.
    Yes, weed removal and tree planting alone isnt the way to go. Something killed or is killing most of the trees on our block. Borers and maybe phytophthora. But why were the trees susceptible? Drought, climate change, nutrient rich water, weeds. There is a lot in there that cant be controlled so the trees need to be as healthy as possible to survive the pressures. Soil microbiome, undergrowth… – the general ecosystem – needs to be part of the solution.

    I have seen many seedlings of Candlebarks spring up under dead trees where I have cleared weeds. More so where topsoil has been removed. But they still struggle. They are getting borer at sapling stage. They are getting leaf disease on new growth. There is no doubt they will continue to struggle until the general ecosystem (grasses, fungi, undergrowth) return as well.

    We are doing it at the same time – as the trees are popping up anyway we try to clear further around them each year and add grasses etc as we go. We dont clear large areas. The blackberries are yummy both to us and the native birds. And what replaces the blackberries is often worse. So little by little…..

  22. frednk @ #1091 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 1:52 pm


    Rex Douglas says:

    The Dems are ignorantly going ahead with a dead weight.

    The Dems don’t have the option the greens and all the minor parties have; they have a clear method of nominating their candidate and he won.

    What else was going to happen when Amy and Mayor Pete et al dutifully fell in behind the dead weight.

    What a crock.

  23. And BK…. I can tell you there is genuine acknowledgement at the highest level that the bushfires represent both an opportunity and a risk for native vegetation in SA. Weed control is high on the list, as is the threat of grazing animals (native and farm) to emerging natives. And they seem to be trying to get a good grasp of what the science is saying about fire threats into the future rather than just relying on old fashioned blunt techniques. Fire ecology has come a long way.

    Excellent article.

  24. Simon Katich

    In NZ blackberries are an official noxious weed so required by law to remove. However it was amazing how each farm , at least in our area, managed to accidentally miss several pockets. Funnily enough they all seemed to be in little gullies that could not be seen from the road 🙂 Blackberry jam made from berries freshly picked at their prime is heavenly, only the taste of eating them fresh beat it (insert Homer Simpson Mmmmm)

  25. BB,
    You can put it 7 different ways from Sunday what Player One’s issues are and she will just take one line out of your copious explanation and use that as the basis for replying with a smarmy retort. I gave up trying to get a ridgy didge reply. Life’s too short.

  26. poroti,
    Blackberries have THE worst thorns! I pull them out as soon as I notice them around here. Little buggers keep coming back! You don’t need to mollycoddle them at all! They have a monster survival instinct! 😆

  27. The apples don’t seem to fall far from the lunacy tree with the Trump kids

    Earlier today – Donald Trump Jr smears Joe Biden with ‘incendiary and baseless’ accusation of being a pedophile

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/donald-trump-jr-smears-joe-biden-with-incendiary-and-baseless-accusation-of-being-a-pedophile/

    and not to be outdone Eric Trump predicts COVID-19 is a conspiracy against his dad that will ‘magically’ disappear in November

    “Listen, Biden loves this,” he claimed. “They think they’re taking away Donald Trump’s greatest tool, which is being able to go into an arena and fill it with 50,000 people every single time.”

    “So you watch, they will milk it every single day between now and November 3rd,”

    “And guess what, after November 3rd, coronavirus will magically all of the sudden go away and disappear and everybody will be able to reopen,” he predicted.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/eric-trump-predicts-covid-19-is-a-conspiracy-against-his-dad-that-will-magically-disappear-in-november/

  28. Gee, the mundo posting storm earlier was Trumpian in its smarmy vindictiveness. But keep going, Franz did..

    Franz von Weyrother (1755 – 16 February 1806) was an Austrian staff officer and general who fought during the French Revolutionary Wars and the Napoleonic Wars. He drew up the plans for the disastrous defeats at the Battle of Rivoli, Battle of Hohenlinden and the Battle of Austerlitz, in which the Austrian army was defeated by Napoleon Bonaparte twice and Jean Moreau once.

  29. Earlier today – Donald Trump Jr smears Joe Biden with ‘incendiary and baseless’ accusation of being a pedophile

    Yeah. But it was just a joke.
    I call all my friends pedophiles. In public. It’s hilarious.

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