Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

  1. Socrates I don’t buy that frankly.

    I’m not about to go and pull out the data, but the critical lines such as T1 were running at 40+ percent capacity even in the inter-peak period. That’s past “safe” capacity – so there’s no spare capacity for people to displace into.

    Also, if you take a typical T1 train running at 120 percent capacity in peak hour and spread that out to 3 or 4 trains at other times, where are those trains going to fit into the timetable? And who will drive them?

    This problem is insoluble as Gladys is about to find out.

    Oh and even if you added rolling stock and drivers and had a peak hour timetable all day, you simply could not shift the numbers of people, whilst keeping to 30-40 percent seated capacity. Not to mention that new trains have a several year lead time and drivers take a year.

    Oh, and buses are even more asburdly impossible to make safe.

    This is a good example of where people will look the other way because the reality is too horrible to contemplate.

  2. Lizzie

    There used to be a “public benefit test” in the ps (Federal and state) for assessing the spending of public money. No pass = no funds. Bridget McKenzie and cronies should be asked if they even know what the test is.

    Have a good day all in the cowardly new world.

  3. PeeBee @ #975 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:42 am

    BB, interesting experience you had on Centrelink.

    What a shame you didn’t have P1 as your advisor. Your issues would have been resolved in quick time. Just like hers.

    Centrelink has gone a bit downhill since BB’s day. Still, well done him for being able to remember so far back at all 🙂

  4. What I’m saying here Socrates is that in the short term, the CBD will be crippled. And a lot of people will be angry about that. That’s assuming that Gladys doesn’t backlfip and give up on social distancing. That’s also too horrible to contemplate.

    Also, I have serious doubts that a “socially distanced” train is entirely safe. Not given a) the length of exposure and b) the way the recirculated (and essentially unflitered) air passes over everyone in the carriage.

  5. Cud

    NO you would not shift the same number of people by rail with demand spreading. My first paragraph was on how you would maximise rail capacity, but that will still not be enough capacity to make the system work. You need something else.

    So, as I said, look to bikeways. In terms of persons moved per square metre of road space they beat cars. They can beat carmaggedon under social distancing. Cars, buses and trains cannot. And bikeways are cheap.

    For public transport WSP did a good recent paper and webinar. Capacity is reduced to 20% to 30% of normal peak.
    https://www.wsp.com/en-AU/insights/covid-19-and-public-transport-from-response-to-recovery

  6. From what I know of the Melbourne experience, separating bikes & motors with a line in the road is not protection enough. Dedicated bikeways need to be constructed.

  7. Socrates for operational reasons, there’s bugger all you can do to add capacity in rail.

    You cannot solve the problem with bikeways either. That’s small change. A certian fraction of people in inner suburbs will switch from bus to bike – unless its raining. But it just won’t scratch the scale of the problem.

    You’ve still (in a normal functioning CBD) got hundreds of thousands pouring in from places that are far too far away to bicycle. These people cannot drive and park, so what’s going to happen?

    Bottom line is the CBD won’t return to normal.

    In a way I’m happy with that because it will put a brake on the virus, but its going to be a rude awakening to everyone out there who thinks you can have anything other than a crippled economy and still only “suppress” the virus.

  8. Where did the “fight” go ? Seems like Labor has settled into the comforts of opposition, covid 19 has been convenient in justifying having a rest.

  9. And I love this bit…

    “Operational considerations are important for passenger behaviour at stops, stations and on vehicles and promoting compliance. Changes to boarding and alighting locations, one-way flows, floor markings and additional operational staff may be required. Timetabling may need to be adjusted to account for longer passenger loading and unloading times.”

    It makes no mention of the riot police. Because if you enforce social distancing and people show up expecting to use the bus and have to wait in a (socially distanced) line that goes several blocks for 2 hours, you’re going to have a riot.

  10. Priorities. Why does sport get all the attention? It’s not just Morrison.

    David Ribbon
    @david89293299
    · 2h

    In the Shoalhaven, where bushfires burnt through 80 per cent of land and destroyed 280 homes, the council has allocated $400,000 of its Federal bushfire recovery grant to upgrade a sporting field.

  11. “The reality is for many PB participants they will see 4 long term Liberal Prime Ministers in their life times:

    Childhood – Menzies
    Young Adult – Fraser
    Middle Age – Howard
    Old Age – Morrison

    and only 1 Labor PM – Hawke. Says it all really“

    So ‘long term’ = 7 years or more.

    There are two dynamics – (1) winning successive elections, and (2) maintaining support in the party room. The current ATM government is already into its third term and has been unstable throughout.

    Scotty is a pure political animal possessing equal measures of rat cunning and astonishing luck. Beyond marketing spin he’s an incredibly narrow minded and incompetent individual. It is always a question as to when his luck will run out and his cunning and nose for spin will leave him short. ‘But For’ covid19 his goose was already cooked in March this year.

    The acid test for Moses Morrison for the next 2 years will be how his government handles the post shutdown economy. Already the signals they are sending do not look promising for their political prospects of keeping just enough folk on board in just the right seats. As an article of faith then word’ is that the private sector will drive the ‘snap back’ and lead all Howard’s battlers to the promised land. What is likely is that there will be no snap back, and the government will be faced with the choice of subsidised training wages, increased social security, creating socially useful jobs and massive infrastructure programs on the one hand and austerity and tax cut ‘stimulus’ on the other. No doubt Moses will attempt a conman’s trick – doing the later but promising a few merge baubles of the (undoubtably popular) former measures to keep the punters in voter land gulled and generally onside with The Father of the Nation. To me – it only seems to be a matter of time before that house of cards comes crashing down on top of the government. At the moment, I don’t think SfM can keep up the political confidence trick for two whole years.

    There has been a lot of criticism of the long term game that Albo is playing. Already the signs are promising that he is positioning Labor to be in a good place to capitalise on the crash in support if/when it happens. Albo is now Hawke or Whitlam, but he is a long term experienced and IMO astute political operator. Morrison is no Menzies or Howard either. Further, Albo’s political team is headed by a proven political winner.

    The 2021-22 federal election will be no lay down for SfM. I am quietly hopeful atm

  12. Coronavirus has changed the ACT election landscape and dwindled the campaign issues to one

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-17/coronavirus-has-changed-the-act-election-landscape/12256134

    The ACT Greens will argue a different line altogether — that COVID-19 has changed so much, and exposed so many problems in areas like casualisation and job insecurity, that now is the time for dramatic change.

    Arguing if normal is over, it is time to make a better normal.
    :::
    The last thing voters grappling with their own personal issues will want to hear is politicians squabbling, particularly if the issues are not relevant to their immediate problems.

    It will not be an easy campaign for anyone.

    ———

    ACT election likely to proceed in October, but should it?

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6758592/act-election-likely-to-proceed-in-october-but-should-it/

    The ACT election is likely to go ahead as planned on October 17, but some minor parties say it will be bad for democracy.

    The major parties both support the election happening on schedule, despite the coronavirus pandemic.
    :::
    In its submission, the ACT Greens said it would accept a postponement of the election – to November or later – if it was deemed safer or if Elections ACT needed more time to prepare for a safe election.

    It said to prevent the spread of germs, how-to-vote cards should not be handed out, and a drive through voting option should be established.

  13. lizzie
    That so reminds me of Port Stephens Council. The councilors pay no attention to the ordinary business of council (like you know, roads and drains) and instead lobby staff to deliver their vanity projects (like a sporting club). Meanwhile the area’s infrastructure including critical drains goes neglected.

  14. Lizzie

    Yes that is why I said “protected” bikeways with physical separation. That can be done many ways.

    https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-and-transport/roads-infrastructure-and-bikeways/bikeway-and-pathway-projects

    Or
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/12/28/how-bike-lanes-are-transforming-paris/#23d5fd38f620

    With E bikes lots of people in Adelaide under full lockdown were cheerfully riding 8 to 10 km, some longer. Longer distances than that there is no solution for the majority. Covid19 is going to change people’s travel patterns.

    Cud the cycling mode share in many citirs

  15. Greensborough Growler @ #1001 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:22 am

    Another well focussed biden advetisement.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1261432240703016962

    Socrates @ #1005 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:29 am

    Lizzie

    There used to be a “public benefit test” in the ps (Federal and state) for assessing the spending of public money. No pass = no funds. Bridget McKenzie and cronies should be asked if they even know what the test is.

    Have a good day all in the cowardly new world.

    Albo fights tories dontcha know!

  16. Reminds me of my experience of the CBD light rail (pre-pandemic). The patronage quickly doubled when it started raining.

  17. Unless you are an inner city dweller or pretty damned fit then cycle ways will do SFA for most. Then we get on to the weather and the dangers that can add.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1018 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:46 am

    “The reality is for many PB participants they will see 4 long term Liberal Prime Ministers in their life times:

    Childhood – Menzies
    Young Adult – Fraser
    Middle Age – Howard
    Old Age – Morrison

    and only 1 Labor PM – Hawke. Says it all really“

    So ‘long term’ = 7 years or more.

    There are two dynamics – (1) winning successive elections, and (2) maintaining support in the party room. The current ATM government is already into its third term and has been unstable throughout.

    Scotty is a pure political animal possessing equal measures of rat cunning and astonishing luck. Beyond marketing spin he’s an incredibly narrow minded and incompetent individual. It is always a question as to when his luck will run out and his cunning and nose for spin will leave him short. ‘But For’ covid19 his goose was already cooked in March this year.

    The acid test for Moses Morrison for the next 2 years will be how his government handles the post shutdown economy. Already the signals they are sending do not look promising for their political prospects of keeping just enough folk on board in just the right seats. As an article of faith then word’ is that the private sector will drive the ‘snap back’ and lead all Howard’s battlers to the promised land. What is likely is that there will be no snap back, and the government will be faced with the choice of subsidised training wages, increased social security, creating socially useful jobs and massive infrastructure programs on the one hand and austerity and tax cut ‘stimulus’ on the other. No doubt Moses will attempt a conman’s trick – doing the later but promising a few merge baubles of the (undoubtably popular) former measures to keep the punters in voter land gulled and generally onside with The Father of the Nation. To me – it only seems to be a matter of time before that house of cards comes crashing down on top of the government. At the moment, I don’t think SfM can keep up the political confidence trick for two whole years.

    There has been a lot of criticism of the long term game that Albo is playing. Already the signs are promising that he is positioning Labor to be in a good place to capitalise on the crash in support if/when it happens. Albo is now Hawke or Whitlam, but he is a long term experienced and IMO astute political operator. Morrison is no Menzies or Howard either. Further, Albo’s political team is headed by a proven political winner.

    The 2021-22 federal election will be no lay down for SfM. I am quietly hopeful atm

    ‘Further, Albo’s political team is headed by a proven political winner.’
    Mark Textor is working for Albo?

  19. One of the adaptations people will use is to avoid shopping in the CBD. Instead they’ll shop more locally. That way they have more chance of being able to drive. That’s actually quite sensbile behaviour.

    Cosnequence is the CBD economy just won’t rebuild the way some people expect. All those knock-on effects.

  20. Pegasus @ #1011 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:37 am

    Rage, rage against the rule of the tories!

    Once upon a time wasn’t Albanese a ‘celebrated’ tory fighter.

    ‘I like fighting Tories. That’s what I do,’ Anthony Albanese once said.
    ‘In ya guts, you know he’s nuts’ Albo once bellowed across the chamber in full tory fighting mode.

    Those days are gone. Gentle Albo has lost the taste for it.

  21. Greensborough Growler

    I have a good idea of what is involved as I spent time working at an LNG plant, including monitoring the CO2 removal system. The big fly in the ointment is capturing the CO2 from flue/exhaust gases uses a huge amount of energy. To then liquefy it and transport it will add a hell of a lot more energy. I note they are starting with the storage, that is the easy bit. To work there will need to be a great over supply of ‘green energy’ .If we have that why would we burn oil/gas.

  22. I think there needs to be some urgent changes to awards and subsidies.

    A common problem with the clusters seems to be testing and people returning to work.

    We have just had an employee test and it was seven days from test to result. The employee was off work for the seven days, as it should be. In my view if you want testing and people staying at home the employee should not have to cover the cost and nor should the business, I think the issue needs to be directly addressed urgently.

  23. “ Earlwood is the best poster on this site.
    Just sayin’”

    Not referring to myself in the third person means that I’m off to a good start. Just saying.

  24. I’ve been back at work for 2 weeks. Trains to and from work have been very sparsely occupied. Bus routes I’ve been doing have had sfa on them. A couple of days with 20 going to Cranbrook otherwise about 10 a day. The other routes have ranged from zero to maybe 15.
    Coogee and Maroubra beaches were quiet apart from board riders.
    Uni vacation starts today so I’ll be doing different routes for 2 weeks.
    Will be interested in passenger loads.

  25. frednk

    Agreed. If you’re going to get symptom free people to want to get tested you need to be fair.

    I think the best method is a loterry with a guaranteed minimum prize. You get a ticket in the lottery for getting tested. And if you test positive you get taken care of (and your boss) financially. Since it will only be a few testing positive it can be pretty much done on an individual basis.

  26. “Socrates the average commute by train in Sydney is (iirc) 17 km. That’s not something you’d do, even on an ebike.”

    Nah…….I used to do that long a commute on a normal mountain bike. Have ebike now and 17km easy as a 4 day a week thing.

    Decent cycleways make a huge difference though..

  27. A major Carbon Capture project to proceed in Norway funded by Shell and other oil Companies.

    Including Equinor of Great Australia Bight drilling fame (now shelved).

  28. Actually driver training seems to have ramped up just recently.
    Winter is usually a bad time of year for driver shortages. Cold and flu season. I’ve had my flu shot but I’d rather not be there at all. It’s only a matter of time and normal loadings will resume.

    And speaking purely from self-interest and self-preservation,
    If someone in government with an iq 2 above a napkin came to the conclusion that lowering the age of access to the pension to 60 would potentially solve 2 problems, namely opening up job vacancies for younger people and protecting older people. I’d be outta there quicker than a politician getting a job in a private company after resigning from parliament.
    My 2c for what it’s worth.

  29. Aqualung

    Unfortunately, this stubborn govt thinks that “stepping backwards” shows weakness. Lowering the pension age would scoop up so many people now in trouble.

  30. 5 million tonnes of CO2 capture a year.
    Your average roof top solar saves about 10 tonnes a year.
    So equivalent to 500,000 rooftops.

  31. Socrates
    Another factor regarding longer and more frequent trains is the effect on vehicular traffic as the dynamics of multiple interconnected interruptions to traffic flow at all of the level crossings.

  32. Socrates
    Another factor regarding longer and more frequent trains is the effect on vehicular traffic as the dynamics of multiple interconnected interruptions to traffic flow at all of the level crossings.

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