Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

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  2. Things go from ugly to uglier. And the campaign is really only just starting.

    President Trump’s eldest son on Saturday posted a social media message suggesting Joseph R. Biden Jr. was a pedophile, an incendiary and baseless charge that illustrates the tactics the president is turning to as he attempts to erase Mr. Biden’s early advantage in key state polls.

    Donald Trump Jr., who is one of his father’s most prominent campaign surrogates, put on Instagram a picture of Mr. Biden saying: “See you later, alligator” alongside an image of an alligator saying: “In a while, pedophile.”

    When a reporter shared the Instagram post online, the younger Mr. Trump, echoing one of his father’s tactics, wrote on Twitter that he was only “joking around” and noted that he had included emojis of a laughing face.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/donald-trump-jr-biden-smear.html

  3. 50 Years From Now, Many Densely Populated Parts of the World Could be Too Hot for Humans

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052020/hot-climate-niches-50-years-human-population?fbclid=IwAR1-zFB1EUx3tha1pa9d4MgJNS_TaF6DpOJoWTF8ITQWSCDivG-nmBKvLds

    A new study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows a “surprisingly narrow” human climate niche—between 52 degrees Fahrenheit to 59 degrees Fahrenheit. And it will shift geographically more in the next 50 years than any time during the past 6,000 years. As a result, up to 3 billion people are “likely to live under climate conditions that are warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish,” the international team of researchers wrote.

  4. “More than anything, this pandemic has fully, finally torn back the curtain on the idea that the folks in charge know what they’re doing,” Obama said. “A lot of them aren’t even pretending to be in charge. ”

    That’s the difference between the US and here. .Here the folks in charge are still pretending to know what they’re doing.. 🙂

  5. New Zealand’s COVID-19 budget delivers on one crisis, but largely leaves climate change for another day

    https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-covid-19-budget-delivers-on-one-crisis-but-largely-leaves-climate-change-for-another-day-138524

    Many had hoped the COVID-19 crisis would be a critical juncture for climate change policy in New Zealand.

    The budget was not this moment. It was about minimising the immediate crisis, with an eye to the forthcoming general election – not a pivot towards a low-emissions economy.

    Under the circumstances, the budget’s short-term vision is not surprising. It is even morally necessary. Climate change is ultimately about people’s welfare too – which needs defending in the present as well as the future.

  8. The federal government appears unlikely to extend free childcare beyond the end of June.

    Under the scheme that was introduced in April in response to the COVID-19 crisis, childcare centres must continue to operate, not charge fees and prioritise care for the children of essential workers, as well as vulnerable and disadvantaged children.

    The scheme is due to expire on June 28 and federal Education Minister Dan Tehan has strongly indicated the government is unlikely to extend it, as demand for childcare places is rising faster than anticipated with the return of parents to work.

  12. A year on from the miricle and Scrote is all tucked in and comfy for the long haul with Albo bringing nice warm malty nightcaps when required.
    Move on folks.

  23. C@t:

    I used to think Birmingham was deliberately the polar opposite of Pyne. One was colourful and in your face, able to talk under water at a rate of knots. Whereas the other was steady, staid, plaid and boring.

  24. Funny, but reference to the Coalition Debt Truck has an entirely different connotation in these times.

  25. BB, interesting experience you had on Centrelink.

    What a shame you didn’t have P1 as your advisor. Your issues would have been resolved in quick time. Just like hers.

  27. Confessions @ #973 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:41 am

    C@t:

    I used to think Birmingham was deliberately the polar opposite of Pyne. One was colourful and in your face, able to talk under water at a rate of knots. Whereas the other was steady, staid, plaid and boring.

    Birmingham is a new version of the Rodent.

  29. No Malcolm, the opposition should be like a dog with a bone. Out in the media’s face every day. Make it happen, don’t wait to see if it might happen.

  32. ‘Politically-motivated violence’ seems a very broad category for ASIO to be able to target individuals.

  34. These Insiders types should just ‘fess up tell us that Scrotty is too rat cunning by half and really nothing they do or say will make any difference to anything. Then go home.

  35. Victoria’s Premier announces cafes, restaurants and the dining area of pubs will reopen on June 1. Daniel Andrews says the venues will be able to have a maximum of 20 people.

  36. In fairness to Palaszczuk, airlines are an essential service.

    Dutton on the other hand is a proponent of thermal coal – a non-essential source of energy – and is destructive to the environment, economy and society.

    Dutton is a menace to Australia.

  38. Rex Douglas @ #986 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 9:54 am

    In fairness to Palaszczuk, airlines are an essential service.

    Dutton on the other hand is a proponent of thermal coal – a non-essential source of energy – and is destructive to the environment, economy and society.

    Dutton is a menace to Australia.

    Yes, but he got re-elected 12 months ago.
    So obviously being a menace to Australia isn’t a bad thing.
    And anyway, Labor hasn’t pursued Dutton as if they were convinced he was a menace, so, maybe he’s isn’t? I dunno….

  39. Anyone care to argue with this? I can’t see that LNP attitudes have shifted an inch.

    Josh Bornstein@JoshBBornstein

    Way back in the early days of the pandemic there was an abundance of predictions of a new enlightened , progressive politics. It’s now clear that fed government & big business are gearing up for more extreme neoliberal policies- more tax cuts & regressive IR ‘reform’.

  40. The reality is for many PB participants they will see 4 long term Liberal Prime Ministers in their life times:

    Childhood – Menzies
    Young Adult – Fraser
    Middle Age – Howard
    Old Age – Morrison

    and only 1 Labor PM – Hawke. Says it all really

  41. C@tmomma

    ‘Politically-motivated violence’ seems a very broad category for ASIO to be able to target individuals.

    Do they provide a definition of ‘violence’ ? The definition of violence can be very ‘creative’ . As can ‘political’

  42. lizzie that’s exactly what I expected from them.

    What might change though is the attitude to people who are unemployed. That is the attitude of the public, not the government. There’s also been some other things that were positive, like giving homeless people accommodation, that will probably be fought for.

  43. Lars Von Trier @ #990 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:08 am

    The reality is for many PB participants they will see 4 long term Liberal Prime Ministers in their life times:

    Childhood – Menzies
    Young Adult – Fraser
    Middle Age – Howard
    Old Age – Morrison

    and only 1 Labor PM – Hawke. Says it all really

    I doesn’t get starker than that.
    I’m already at the acceptance stage.

  45. mundo @ #993 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:12 am

    Lars Von Trier @ #990 Sunday, May 17th, 2020 – 10:08 am

    The reality is for many PB participants they will see 4 long term Liberal Prime Ministers in their life times:

    Childhood – Menzies
    Young Adult – Fraser
    Middle Age – Howard
    Old Age – Morrison

    and only 1 Labor PM – Hawke. Says it all really

    I doesn’t get starker than that.
    I’m already at the acceptance stage.

    Of course as a young man, Whitlam changed my life, for the better…but it was a brief shining moment in the scheme of things….

  49. Victorians will have to give name and phone number to enter restaurant or pub
    Every patron will have to give their first name, last name and mobile phone number if they want to enter Victoria’s reopened restaurants and dining areas of pubs.

    Daniel Andrews has just said this will be mandatory for contact tracing.

    Not much different to having to book for a seat, as I recall.

  50. Morning all. I saw earlier comments on risks of carmaggedon in Sydney if train capacity is reduced due to social distancing. Yes train capacity will be reduced. Staggered start times will help make better use of the much emptier trains running either side of peak hour, and extending the period of peak frequency. That will need more rolling stock and drivers. Bus routes face an even bigger problem. In the long term trains are still the solution. But short term they are not.

    The real short term solution is probably the one people have been doing voluntarily for exercise cycling. A network of protected cycle lanes could shift Australia’s cycling mode share from its dismal 1% to 2% to 10% or 20% and make a real difference to car congestion. Permit E bikes and E scooters as well means that this will still be useful in the long term. The capacity of these lanes is higher than the capacity of a car traffic lane. Cost is just paint and a small strip of concrete kerb to separate the cars.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-17/coronavirus-brings-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity-for-cycling/12247870

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