Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings

A poll by the Australia Institute finds next to nothing in it in Eden-Monaro. Also featured: still more coronavirus polling, and the status quo preserved in a Greens plebiscite on how the party leader should be chosen.

With regard to the American presidential horse race, Adrian Beaumont offers all the latest in the post below. Closer to hand:

• Tom McIlroy of the Financial Review ($) reports Labor is credited with a statistically insignificant lead in poll of Eden-Monaro conducted by the Australia Institute. Based on response options that listed only party names, the poll reportedly had Labor leading 51.1-48.8 based on preference flows from 2019. No primary votes are provided in the report, but I expect to have that and other detail for you later today. A question on the most importat issue drew modest responses for both coronavirus (7.3%) and bushfire recovery (8.6%), with the agenda dominated by the economy (28.9%), climate change (23.4%) and health (14.0%). UPDATE: After exclusion of the 9.0% undecided, the primary votes are Labor 39.8%, Liberal 34.3%, Nationals 7.3%, Greens 6.7% and One Nation 6.5%. The polling was conducted by uComms.

• The Lowy Institute has a poll on the strategic implications of coronavirus, which records a general expectation that the crisis will tilt the international balance to China (37% more powerful, 36% just as powerful, 27% less powerful) at the expense of the United States (6% more powerful, 41% just as powerful, 53% less powerful) and Europe (5%, 46% and 48%). Respondents were asked if Australia and various other countries had handled the crisis well and poorly, and with the qualification that the uncommitted responses seem implausibly low, Australians consider their own country’s response (43% good, 50% fairly good, 6% fairly bad, 1% very bad) to have been well superior even to that of Singapore (23%, 56%, 15% and 3%), never mind China (6%, 25%, 25% and 44%), the United Kingdom (3%, 27%, 49% and 21%), Italy (2%, 13%, 44% and 40%) or, God forbid, the United States (2%, 8%, 27% and 63%). Respondents were slightly less favourable to the concept of globalisation than they were in a similar survey a year ago, with 70% rating it mostly good for Australia (down two) and 29% mostly bad (up five). The survey was conducted online and by telephone from April 14 to 27, from a sample of 3036.

• The results of a Greens internal referendum on giving the party membership a way in electing party leaders landed in the awkward zone between clear majority support and the two-thirds super-majority required for change. Members were presented with three head-to-head questions between each combination of two out of three options: the status quo of decision by the party room; the “one member, one vote” approach of having the matter determined entirely by the membership; and a Labor-style model where members provided half the vote and the party room the other half. The two questions inclusive of the status quo produced very similar results, with 62.0% favouring one-member one vote (3721 to 2281) and 62.6% favouring the Labor model (3510 to 2101). The Labor model recorded a narrow 3014 (50.95%) to 2902 (49.05%) win over one-member one-vote, but this would only have been operative if the favoured model recorded two-thirds support in head-to-head comparison with the status quo. According to Rob Harris of the Age/Herald, the response rate was 46% out of the party’s 13,143 eligible members.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,345 comments on “Eden-Monaro opinion poll and other happenings”

Comments Page 2 of 27
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  1. Socrates @ #37 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 8:41 am

    Cat

    Albanese’s efforts were good but Transport regulation is mainly a State issue. But the company behind the Melbourne crash is based in NSW. Andrew Constance needs to show some action there.

    Likewise the SA spate of truck crashes largely stopped after Jay Weatherall started prosecuting the managers sending out untrained drivers in unroadworthy trucks in court. The power to prosecute them for breaching their duty of care had existed for years but almost never been used. Once they were used, the industry soon got the message. We haven’t had a runaway truck crash on the SE Freeway since.

    Not anymore. The states transferred their responsibility for transport inspections etc. to the feds a couple of years ago.

  2. Greens are well known for their archaic and anachronistic internal systems. They squawk and finger point at other political organisations for alleged failures of process. But, this Leadership Election debacle just shows them up for the hypocrites they are regarding participatory politics within their own Party.

  5. Trump hilariously mocked for saying ‘if we didn’t do any testing we would have very few cases’

    President Donald Trump’s remarks at an Allentown medical supply facility are being pointed to as proof he not only opposes testing for coronavirus but doesn’t understand why Americans need to be tested.

    “It could be that testing’s frankly,” he said, taking a long pause, “ah, overrated?”

    “When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing we would have very few cases.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/trump-hilariously-mocked-for-saying-if-we-didnt-do-any-testing-we-would-have-very-few-cases/

  8. Of the 22,332 people who died in hospital in England between 31 March and 12 May, 5,873 (26%) suffered from either type 1 or type 2 diabetes, NHS England figures reveal.

    That was the most common illness found in an analysis of what existing conditions patients had. The other commonest comorbidities were dementia (18%), serious breathing problems (15%) and chronic kidney disease (14%). One in ten (10%) suffered from ischaemic heart disease.

    The finding about diabetes confirms anecdotal reports from intensive care doctors that many of the coronavirus patients they have been treating during the pandemic had underlying diabetes, as well as research by the UK’s Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre.

    NHS England said the one in four figure confirmed that diabetes – which 4.8 million Britons are estimated to have – increases the risk of death from Covid-19.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/one-in-four-people-who-died-in-uk-hospitals-with-covid-19-had-diabetes

  9. “Governments and international partners must unite around a global guarantee which ensures that, when a safe and effective vaccine is developed, it is produced rapidly at scale and made available for all people, in all countries, free of charge,” the letter says, adding that poorer countries should not be left at the back of the vaccine queue.

    The plea came as a French pharmaceutical company stirred outrage by saying any vaccine it discovered would be reserved for Americans in the first instance, and as global confirmed deaths from the virus passed 300,000, according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker.

    Paul Hudson, the British chief executive officer of Sanofi, said any vaccine would go to the US first since it had done the most to fund the company’s research. “The US government has the right to the largest pre-order because it’s invested in taking the risk,” Hudson told Bloomberg.

    The European commission and health experts responded furiously, pointing out that Paris-based Sanofi has received tens of millions of euros in the form of research credits from the French state in recent years.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/global-report-leaders-urge-free-vaccines-as-france-allows-staycations

  10. This man is sick in the head.

    Trump: “[Doctors and nurses] are running into death just like soldiers run into bullets … it’s a beautiful thing to see.”

  12. Morrison’s venture into COVID-19 diplomacy is fanning the polemics. The economy? Well, not so much. Politicising the pandemic is a serious mistake.

  13. @GordyPls
    What is it with former Liberal leaders saying “maybe we shouldn’t be arseholes so much” and former Labor leaders saying “Unions and workers probably not that good actually”? Is it an iron deficiency in old age or something?

  14. There is usually a rebel within a party who speaks out against policies that go too far, even when most stay buttoned up. No LNP ever seems to criticise Dutton. Why are they so scared of him?

    @brucehawker2010
    ·
    2h
    Peter Dutton’s ASIO bill amendment one more step towards a totalitarian state. (But failed to protect Australians from Covid 19 when he let the Ruby Princess offload thousands of passengers without checking for coronavirus. Massive biosecurity fail).

  15. lizzie @ #60 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 9:50 am

    This man is sick in the head.

    Trump: “[Doctors and nurses] are running into death just like soldiers run into bullets … it’s a beautiful thing to see.”

    He should lead from the front.

    The sad and atrocious thing is, demagogues like Trump know that they can say abhorrent things like that and be confident that the idiots they have armed with guns will back them up.

  16. @rwillingham
    ·
    2m
    Vic has recorded 21 new cases of the Covid19
    1 case has been reclassified, so there is a net increase of 20.
    2 cases linked Fawkner McDonalds, total 10
    1 case linked Cedar Meats, total 91.
    6 cases are in hotel quarantine.
    4th day in a row of no new community transmission

  18. Ben Eltham
    @beneltham
    ·
    15s
    The entire higher education sector is burning down, but the good news is private schools have got extra funding for hand sanitiser

  19. Queensland health minister Steven Miles is holding a press conference in Townsville, where he’s revealed that an aged care worker has tested positive for Covid-19 in Rockhampton.

    Miles says the person is a nurse at a state-run aged care facility in North Rockhampton and the test was confirmed at about 8pm last night. The aged care home has been put into lockdown, and any staff who have been in contact with the nurse are in quarantine.
    …
    The last confirmed case inRockhampton was on the 30 March. So something like seven weeks since they last had a case, the last active case was considered recovered on the 1 May. This just serves to underline that even after cities have long periods of time without active cases, things can turn very, very quickly.

  21. Kay Jay
    My hallucinations were unreal (excuse the pun). Firstly there was an invasion of huge cockroaches running around the walls. Then giant spiders on the ceiling. Funny thing, I could see them but knew they weren’t real. Then I woke during the night and thought I was in a tent and it was pouring rain. I got out of bed and went outside the ward to check things out only to find I was in hospital with a nurse asking me what the hell I was doing out of bed. The show only lasted one night thankfully.

  22. Victoria @ #7 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 7:49 am

    You have to wonder if the disastrous handling of the pandemic in both the US and UK, was deliberate. They could not have done worse if they tried.

    Another interesting question is whether our good (but not perfect – e.g. Dutton and the Plague Ships**) handling of the crisis was entirely accidental. I’m fairly sure that, left to themselves, Morrison and his government would have taken us down much the same path as Trump and Boris – i.e. doing too little, too late and hoping for “herd immunity”. There is a reasonable case to argue that we were saved only by our State governments – Victoria in particular.

    ** Which strikes me as an excellent name for a heavy metal band! 🙂

  24. Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    16h
    This is how I see it. Could be nasty surprises, but I think it’s highly likely we’ll know we have good COVID-19 vaccines by October. The issue will be to produce enough of it. Coronavirus vaccine: reasons to be optimistic https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-vaccine-reasons-to-be-optimistic-137209?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton… via
    @ConversationUK

    Coronavirus vaccine: reasons to be optimistic
    We don’t have vaccines for the Sars, Mers or the common cold. But that doesn’t mean scientists won’t crack it this time.
    theconversation.com

  25. Player One

    I honestly think that there was no conspiracy. They are simply inept. They spend so much time listening to their barrackers in Big Business that cannot think for themselves in an emergency. Then they panic and make all the wrong decisions.

  26. C@t
    It won’t be gallstones.
    It will probably be Tietze syndrome which is costochondritis (inflammation rib cartilage). Harmless.

  28. Prof. Peter Doherty
    @ProfPCDoherty
    ·
    1h
    Contrary to an article I tweeted earlier, a lot of discussion re the possibility that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is transmitting a lot less in hot, humid regions. That’s good news for people in our north and in a number of the poorer nations. What it seems to like is cold & humidity.

  29. poroti
    Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 8:55 am
    Comment #41

    KayJay

    You know that old tree just over from you ? Well it is not as dead as it appears.

    Get thee from my haid yon Poroti.

    Yesterday while waiting for to proceed to GP appointment I watched
    A Monster Calls.

    I loved the movie. Now for an old mate (emphasis on old) where are the cameras and microphones in my bedroom. I promise to stop saying those nasty things about you. 😵

  30. Morrison’s venture into COVID-19 diplomacy is fanning the polemics. The economy? Well, not so much. Politicising the pandemic is a serious mistake.

    It would be for a labor person, but when the libs engage in the lowest most nasty partisan attacks, even the guardian media personalities jump up and down to tell us how great a leader Morrison is, how great a bloke Dan Tehan is etc etc etc.

    The asymmetry is just so astoundingly obvious you’d think even the morons in our media would have enough self awareness to get, but no, they are clueless.

  32. Bulldust
    Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 10:22 am
    Comment #71

    Kay Jay
    My hallucinations were unreal (excuse the pun). Firstly there was an invasion of huge cockroaches running around the walls. Then giant spiders on the ceiling.

    I can see that I need to lift my game. My pathetic limp images hardly even constitute hallucinations and were dismissed out of hand by a nurse 3 A.M.is with a sort of “humph can’t you do better ❓ ”

    The shame of it all. Nevertheless, although I was mightily impressed and pleased with the medical services – I think I will stay home and think kind thoughts.

    Over and out. Time for me to make phone calls to loved ones. 📞😍

  33. What it seems to like is cold & humidity.

    Okay, say goodbye to Sydney. We have a cold, wet winter predicted. 😐

  34. Joe O’Brien
    @JoeABCNews
    ·
    36m
    BREAKING: Rockhampton aged care nurse tests positive .. “case out of nowhere” .. “had been working while positive” .. 115 residents and 180 staff at the North Rockhampton Nursing Home.

  38. WTF is it with Aged Care Nurses who go to work when they are symptomatic?

    I am relying on the media to have accurately reported the facts.

    Surely these medical professionals have been told to not come to work if they have any symptoms and report it and get tested. No?

    Even my kids know this.

  39. lizzie @ #84 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 11:04 am

    Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    May 11
    Scott Morrison tried to shutdown questions about sports grants today by declaring the gallery was back to politics as usual. Actually, the person back to politics as usual was the prime minister. Some commentary https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/11/scott-morrison-reverts-to-politics-as-usual-over-sports-rorts?CMP=share_btn_tw #auspol

    ‘Actually, the person back to politics as usual was the prime minister’
    As predicted.
    And he’s going to steamroll his way over anything and everything that doesn’t fit his agenda.
    And – don’t hate me – Labor, the opposition, can’t do anything about it.
    The new normal is the same as the old normal.
    It was always going to turn out like this.

    Labor missed their chance to flip the switch.
    Too passive, too meek, to scared.

  40. WTF is it with Aged Care Nurses who go to work when they are symptomatic?

    I’m just going out on a limb here, but they probably need the money desperately, they’ve probably been told they can’t take paid sick leave and they are probably scared.

    They shouldn’t, they should be so well paid they could take a year off anytime and live on their savings and investments, also they should be free to take as much additional paid leave as they need at times like this. But we pay them terribly, treat them like shit and then abuse them when they do what they have no choice about what to do.

    I don’t know about you, but I’ve never gone to work sick because I wanted to, and I must have gone to work sick about 100 times. People do it because they feel they have to. Or because they actually have to.

  41. WeWantPaul @ #79 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 10:56 am

    Morrison’s venture into COVID-19 diplomacy is fanning the polemics. The economy? Well, not so much. Politicising the pandemic is a serious mistake.

    It would be for a labor person, but when the libs engage in the lowest most nasty partisan attacks, even the guardian media personalities jump up and down to tell us how great a leader Morrison is, how great a bloke Dan Tehan is etc etc etc.

    The asymmetry is just so astoundingly obvious you’d think even the morons in our media would have enough self awareness to get, but no, they are clueless.

    ‘Politicising the pandemic is a serious mistake’
    Wrong.
    Politicising it means he has the upper hand.
    Labor doesn’t do politics.
    The ball is permanently in Scrooter’s court.
    Labor don’t even need their racquets.

  42. “ WTF is it with Aged Care Nurses who go to work when they are symptomatic?”

    What is the evidence that the nurse was symptomatic when they first went to work with the virus? I thought we’d established that this virus has a considerable period of latency – when you can pass it on whilst asymptotic. Also pinning down what is symptomatic and what isn’t is also often tricky.

    I think a detailed timeline of what, when and where is in order before Incitatus jumps to judgment. Otherwise he might look a bit like Brendan Murphy and ScoMo re the Bernie Tasmania outbreak – just a little silly.

  44. Bucephalus @ #88 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    WTF is it with Aged Care Nurses who go to work when they are symptomatic?

    I am relying on the media to have accurately reported the facts.

    Surely these medical professionals have been told to not come to work if they have any symptoms and report it and get tested. No?

    Even my kids know this.

    They are called Labour Hire firms. The ones that employ the Aged Care workers, not necessarily Nurses, they could be AINs or ENs, as opposed to a RN (because most Aged Care facilities don’t employ that many RNs). The workers are insecure workers because if they refuse a shift without medical proof going to cause, then they are sacked on the spot and told not to come back in tomorrow. In a regional city like Rockhampton, I could safely say there wouldn’t be too many jobs going around at the moment. And a big incentive to hang onto the one you’ve got.

    This is a reality I am very familiar with as my son has been in the clutches of Labour Hire companies a few times already in his short working life.

  45. Meanwhile in NSW

    “NSW Health is alerting all passengers who were in close contact of the flight to monitor for symptoms,” she said.

    NSW Health will release seat details later on Friday.

    Chant defended hotel quarantine saying it is “an effective measure” despite the new case.

    Community transmission
    The state recorded a further eight cases of COVID-19 overnight, from more than 12,200 tests on Friday.

    Of those, three are believed to have been acquired through community transmission in existing hotspots – the Bondi and Waverley area, and one other in Penrith.

    Two men in their 30s in the Bondi area have returned a positive result in preliminary testing.

  47. WeWantPaul says:
    Friday, May 15, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Yes, you are out on a limb and it’s just snapped.

    In the current situation if an Aged Care Nurse felt ill with potential symptoms and reported to their employer and a GP – who would immediately issue a Medical Certificate and order testing- on what basis could they deny sick leave that they are legally entitled to under their Award or EBA?

    Can you imagine what would happen to an Aged Care organisation that told their employees they can’t take sick leave if the have symptoms?

    Just complete utter anti-employer garbage.

    Yes, we used to go to work with a cold or sore throat – but that’s changed. Who hasn’t got that message? Especially Nurses and anyone else in Aged Care?

  48. WeWantPaul @ #90 Friday, May 15th, 2020 – 11:17 am

    I don’t know about you, but I’ve never gone to work sick because I wanted to, and I must have gone to work sick about 100 times. People do it because they feel they have to. Or because they actually have to.

    I once went to work sick for months because my doctor didn’t tell me that what he had diagnosed as “100 day cough” was probably whooping cough. I may have unknowingly infected dozens of other people as a result.

    I was told later that doctors diagnose it as “100 day cough” because if they diagnose it as “whooping cough” then they are required to notify the health authorities (it is a notifiable disease) and they simply can’t be arsed. **

    ** I should point out that some doctors here on PB disagreed with this conclusion last time I mentioned it. But I have heard of other similar cases, so I don’t really know. All I do know is that I should have been advised not to be at work – but perhaps the doc thought he was helping me – after all, who can take 3 months sick leave without losing their job?

  49. lizzie: “Vic has recorded 21 new cases of the Covid19
    1 case has been reclassified, so there is a net increase of 20.
    2 cases linked Fawkner McDonalds, total 10
    1 case linked Cedar Meats, total 91.
    6 cases are in hotel quarantine.
    4th day in a row of no new community transmission”

    Not sure about the accuracy of this tweet: who was the source? At least one of the aggregator sites says that there were three community transmission cases in Vic on Tuesday. And nine of today’s cases are still under investigation.

  50. C@tmomma
    says:
    This is a reality I am very familiar with as my son has been in the clutches of Labour Hire companies a few times already in his short working life.
    __________________________
    When Bill Shorten was with the AWU he did some dodgy deals with Labour Hire companies in transitioning workplaces away from normal employees. Look into the Chiquita Mushroom case.

    It is also a fact that Labour Hire company UniBuilt donated $40k to Shorten’s 2007 campaign. A donation that Shorten hid for around ten years until forced to disclose it when it was revealed.

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