Newspoll state leadership polling and Essential Research coronavirus latest

State-level polling finds the coronavirus tide lifting all boats — but none so far as Mark McGowan in WA, whose numbers may be without precedent.

The Australian ($) today provides Newspoll findings on state leaders’ handling of the coronavirus, from samples of around 520 for each mainland state plus 309 for Tasmania. The poll finds all concerned riding high, including three who strongly outperformed Scott Morrison’s ballyhooed 68% approval and 28% disapproval on the weekend. These are WA Labor Premier Mark McGowan, at 89% approval and 6% disapproval; Tasmanian Liberal Premier Peter Gutwein, at 84% approval and 11% disapproval after three months in the job; and Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews, at 75% approval and 17% disapproval.

Morrison was also matched on approval and bettered on net approval by NSW Liberal Premier Gladys Berejiklian (69% approval and 23% disapproval) and SA Liberal Premier Steven Marshall (68% approval and 21% disapproval). Only Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, who faces an election in October, was below the prime ministerial par (55% approval and 39% disapproval). With due allowance for small samples, I believe McGowan’s ratings may be a record for Newspoll, or indeed for any other Australian pollster, and that Gutwein’s might have been too if not for McGowan’s.

The leaders record even stronger ratings on the specific question of handling the coronavirus outbreak: 77% rate Berejiklian as having done well, compared with 18% for badly; Andrews is at 85% and 11%; Palaszczuk is at 72% and 23%; McGowan is at 94% and 4%; Marshall is at 82% and 11%; and Gutwein is at 89% and 8%. Equivalent results are also provided for the Prime Minister, and here too Western Australians are most positive, at 73% approval and 23% disapproval, with 85% rating Morrison had handled coronavirus well compared with 14% for badly. In New South Wales, Morrison scored 67% approval and 30% disapproval, and 82% well and 16% badly for coronavirus; in Victoria, 72% approval and 26% disapproval, 83% well and 14% badly; in Queensland, 67% approval and 28% disapproval, 81% well and 17% badly; in South Australia, 70% approval and 27% disapproval, 83% well and 15% badly; and in Tasmania, 64% approval and 31% disapproval, 81% well and 18% badly.

As reported in The Guardian, the weekly Essential Research coronavirus poll provides us with a third set of small-sample findings on mainland state governments’ handling of the crisis, ranging from about 80 respondents in South Australia to 320 in New South Wales. The latest results produce combined very good and good ratings of 77% for the Victorian and South Australian governments, 76% for Western Australia, 67% for Queensland and 63% for New South Wales. The table below records the progress of this series over its three weeks, together with an averaged result which again shows Western Australia highest at 77%, followed by 74% for Victoria, 72% for South Australia, 61% for Queensland and 60% for New South Wales.

Essential Research also finds confidence in the federal government’s handling of the crisis continuing to rise, with 70% rating it good or very good, a measure that earlier progressed from 45% in late March to 65% last week. Seventy-three per cent now say they consider themselves unlikely to catch the virus, compared with 57% at the peak of concern at the end of March. In response to a list of options for budget repair, 64% supported preventing companies in offshore tax havens from receiving goverment support, but only 32% favoured removing franking credits and negative gearing, and 18% supported death duties.

On the COVIDSafe app, the weekend’s Newspoll found 21% saying they would definitely take it up, 33% that they would probably do so, 21% that they would probably not, and 18% that they would definitely not. Apart from the lower uncommitted rating, this is broadly in line with an Australia Institute poll of 1011 respondents on Thursday and Friday which had 45% saying they would and 28% that they wouldn’t. Essential Research also weighed in on the question, and found 53% saying it would limit the spread of the virus, and 46% that it would speed removal of distancing restrictions. A full set of results from Essential Research should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,040 comments on “Newspoll state leadership polling and Essential Research coronavirus latest”

Comments Page 56 of 61
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  1. poroti @ #2751 Saturday, May 2nd, 2020 – 3:25 pm

    RD

    It was a very good article by Chip LeGrand I thought.

    He really really needs a name change. All that comes to mind is the name Russell Crowe adopted during an early cringeworthy phase Rus le Roq.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    It’s an excellent name. I wish I had a name like that.

  2. The COVID-19 pandemic will impact South Australia’s economy and jobs until 2024, with double-digit unemployment, a plunge in Gross State Product and a slow recovery predicted in a new report.

    Flinders University’s analysis of the effect of the virus suggested stimulus packages, like JobKeeper and JobSeeker, would be needed longer than the expected six months.

    The report found unemployment was predicted to more than double from 52,000 to 117,000 in the current quarter, with its peak expected to reach 13.3 per cent.

    The jobless rate is expected to remain above 10 per cent at the end of 2023.

  3. Pegasus

    I’m not trying to get rid of you (in case you’re accusing me of being “one of the usual suspects”). I used to reply to some of your posts in a friendly way, even agreeing with you, but you never responded, so I gave up. I assume you enjoy being unfathomable.

  4. Confessions says: Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    Agree, but there has been speculation about the virus being scared of sunshine.

    “We could, you know, maybe radiate the sunshine inside the body somehow…”

    Dr Donald J Trump, April 2020

    **************************************************************

    Donald is OK – he has been well treated for the virus : – just needs the lamp up the jaxie

  5. PhoenixRed
    “Donald is OK – he has been well treated for the virus : – just needs the lamp up the jaxie ”

    Or a hot poker. You won’t need a medical professional to administer that.

  6. GG,
    Interesting experiment: Beachgoers VS stay-at-homes in summer. Might be hard to control for other variables though.

  7. Steve777

    My view regarding the app can be expressed in several question/answer pairs:

    Q: Will the app be taken up in large numbers?
    A: Probably not. The takeup curve is flattening out and it looks like we’ll end up with a takeup of around 20 percent – similar to Singapore.

    Q: How does this limit the usefulness of the app?
    A: The proportion of contacts captured is the square of the takeup rate. Hence at 20 percent takeup, the app will report about 4 percent of contacts

    Q: Does the app do anything that cannot already be done by normal tracing methods?
    A: Yes, possibly. It will certainly spot contacts you weren’t aware of or can’t remember. Where this feature would come into its own is if we get to the stage of there being more people in close quarters in crowded places – food courts, trains etc. But this sort of situation should never be allowed to happen by any responsible government. In other words, if we do not eliminate the virus and accept suppression, then we also accept a suppressed economy. So no food courts, people forced to wait in long lines to avoid crowding on trains and restaurants. No cinemas. No public events. And so on. If these sorts of activities are not allowed then the app doesn’t really get to see its best use.

    Q: Will the app get used to its best effect?
    A: That depends. Apparently the app does poll every minute and does record the code number for every contacted phone, the signal strength and the timing. All that information is uploaded to the server when you’re tested positive. its up to how that information is used (what filters are used) as to whether the health workers get the full benefit out of the app. There are lots of situations (like in train carriages) where its meaningful to contact every single person in range which is typically the whole carriage. Will they use all the information available, or will they filter it down and miss a lot of valuable contact information? I don’t know. I suspect after a while, they will get better at it.

    Q: Am I going to use the app?
    A: I hope not. At the moment it is no use to me. I’m in isolation and expect to remain so whilst there is still live virus. If at some point we get to the point where elimination has stalled then the most likely scenario is that it will be confined to Sydney. Then its a question of whether they impose barriers (compulsory testing) of those travelling north. This may keep my region safer. If I feel safe to go out (say to the beach) and the virus hasn’t been eliminated at that point, then I’ll use the app.

    Q: Is the app going to make it safe for us to ease restrictions?
    A: Absolutely not. Its over hyped and deliberately so. Even if elimination stalls and again if it does then we are far more likely to be in a situation where its confined to Sydney, there are far more powerful tools than the app. Especially given that the app will only reveal a small fraction of contacts. More conventional tracing is going to be far more useful. So is blanket testing – of entire suburbs if necessary. Again we are talking about a post lockdown world where a single carrier will cause dozens of infections before it starts to show up as a cluster. The app, such as it is, may give a bit of background intelligence once a cluster is large enough – but it won’t help us get on top of it early. The best response is still local lockdowns and mass testing – as they did in NW Tas.

    Q: Is the app a privacy threat?
    A: Potentially, but in reality this issue is a bit of a non event. We already have far more of our valuable data – identity theft material – out there on cloud servers already. I for one don’t think the government is being ill willed about this. I think its genuine and I think the privacy controls are ok. It could be better, but this isn’t the best reason for not using the app.

    Q: What’s the best reason for not using the app?
    A: Its not needed and won’t be needed unless elimination stalls. In the mean time registering yourself with the app is a vote for Scomo to prematurely reduce restrictions and thus destroy what we have worked hard to achieve.

    Q: But what about people currently at risk? Don’t they need the app?
    A: Far more effective is blanket testing of targeted groups. Which is what we should have been doing before we infected and killed a bunch of people in hospitals and nursing homes. Having said this, until we are mass testing, I’d recommend the app to anyone at risk because its better than nothing.

    Q: Will the app ever see enough takeup to reach its full potential?
    A: Probably not. However if Scomo gets his way and we have a second wave and thousands more cases, then you’ll see people rush for the app in the mistaken belief it will cure things. In reality even 40 percent was a weak target. This would mean catching only 16 percent of contacts. For such an app to be really effective we need 80+ percent takeup. To get there would mean a) a second wave and/or b) paying people to use it and probably c) giving people phones with the app pre-installed because a lot of people don’t have smartphones. Again, the app really only comes into its own in a situation where we have people are once again forming crowds, packing trains and where just a few carriers will become hundred of cases in a couple of weeks. I hope we never get there.

  8. Western Australian health minister Roger Cook said for the third day in a row, no new virus cases had been recorded in the state. He announced the Therapaeutic Goods Administration had approved an order for up to 10,000 Western Australian manufactured face shields. They are being manufactured in the suburb of Malaga, and will be rolled out to hospital staff. The shields have involved input from staff at Royal Perth Hospital.

  9. National Cabinet has agreed to consider relaxing social distancing restrictions when it meets next Friday, but this will only occur if more Australians download COVIDSafe.

    Too soon to know, so any decisions will be based on Morrison’s feelgoods.

    More than 4 million people have downloaded the COVIDSafe app, but the system granting health authorities access to the information it collects is not yet operational.

    Key points:
    The app will not be fully functional until states and territories finalise data rules
    More than 4 million Australians have downloaded the app already
    App downloads will be a key discussion point when National Cabinet decides whether to ease restrictions
    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the app a vital tool in protecting Australians against coronavirus.

    But the ABC has confirmed that if a person tests positive to coronavirus today, the information on the mobile application will be of no use to health authorities because the states and territories are yet to finalise how the data can be used.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/coronavirus-app-currently-not-fully-operational/12208924

  10. Am I the only one secretly hoping that there will be a cluster of covid-19 (mild, mine you) in Tamworth in the next couple of weeks, now that Dutton has approved the arrival of the New Zealand football players.

    Whoever posted this stupidity appears to have a very poor understanding of the word “secretly”

  11. South Australia

    10 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! – 0 new case recorded
    – 7 active cases remain
    – 3 patients at RAH

  12. And Trim.

    Yes. And Trim.
    There are times I would like to send my two on a leaky boat on a dangerous journey over the oceans.

  13. There is a possible link of some degree between sunshine and Covid outcomes. They found that spanish flu survival rates increased when they took peeps out of tents and popped their beds out into the open. Collecting a proper measure of sunshine gives our bodies the chance to collect the wherewithal to make Vitamin D.

    Vitamin D is related to the efficacy of our immune systems.

    CAVEAT: I AM NOT A DOCTOR GENIUS LIKE TRUMP.

  14. BK

    What is the WA health minister saying about whether or not they are going to eliminate the virus?
    ___
    Cud
    Just like in SA he says now is the time to press home the advantage and do even better.

  15. I hope people appreciate the benefits this country with its various public services – despite them being decimated in the past.

  16. MPs from both sides have long assumed 2017 would be Labor’s high-water mark and some seats would swing back into the blue column in 2021, even if the McGowan Government recorded another comfortable election win.

    But the Premier’s current popularity has some Liberals concerned about saving their own furniture, worried that seats including Darling Range and Hillarys are vulnerable if the situation does not change.

    Lost ground next year could significantly hurt hopes of a 2025 election victory as well, some Liberals fear.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-02/mark-mcgowan-coronavirus-leadership-impact-on-2021-wa-election/12205178

  17. “Just like in SA he says now is the time to press home the advantage and do even better.”

    Good! I just hope Gladys gets it.

  18. Kakuru says:
    Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 3:01 pm

    My unit was deployed in that and it was under a DACC request which is the legally correct process.

  19. BK: “The guy representing the CMO at the current presser is very impressive.”

    Michael Kidd: former President of the Royal College of General Practitioners, former medical reporter on JJJ (I think he called himself “Medical Mike”) and husband of Alastair McEwin, Disability Discrimination Commissioner.

    And one of the nicest blokes you could ever hope to meet.

  20. Boerwar

    CAVEAT: I AM NOT A DOCTOR GENIUS LIKE TRUMP.
    —————

    You mean this weirdly poetic stream of disconnected words?

  21. Hillbilly

    “10 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

    I just hope your Premier puts the boot into Scomo over the next few days 🙂

  22. And one of the nicest blokes you could ever hope to meet.
    _____
    m b
    That does not at all surprise me. A superior person without exuding it.

  23. The bigger the gun, the smaller the………brain.

    Four years ago, Donald Trump’s core supporters embraced Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” label because it encapsulated their class struggle against the perceived ruling elite.

    Now, as Trump’s reelection nears, the Deplorables are back, but this time they’re gunning for a new moniker: the Discombobulateds.

    If his supporters are unified by anything in 2020, it is a shared confusion about his rationale for a second term. This has become a movement without a message.

    At the American Patriot Rally at the state Capitol in Lansing, Mich., on Thursday, many of the hundreds of protesters wore red “Make America Great Again” caps or flew “Trump 2020” banners and “Build the Wall” or “Drain the Swamp” signs. Others waved the yellow “Don’t Tread on Me” flags of the tea party. Demonstrators, several armed with military-style guns, then marched into the statehouse and stared down the police.

    What did they propose to do with these weapons? Shoot the virus? Shoot the governor? Shoot themselves in the foot?

    They didn’t seem to have a plan. They were there to rail against Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s pandemic restrictions, though hers are not so different from those in other states, even those run by Republican governors. They howled about “tyranny” even though the country is now run by the man they helped elect. They fretted about losing their Second Amendment rights even as they carried guns, legally under Michigan law, into the Capitol. They complained about runaway government spending and money-printing even though Trump and the GOP have championed it.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/01/trumps-gun-toting-supporters-are-firing-blanks/

  24. Tasmania posted zero yesterday. The first day every state and territory posted zero cases – except NSW and Vic.

  25. Rakali
    We will know we are reaching the end game when Trump reports seeing some light at the end of his tunnel.

  26. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 2:38 pm

    Simon Katich @ #2692 Saturday, May 2nd, 2020 – 2:34 pm

    I am not wasting my time arguing over what someone said about Captain Cook.

    Cook, like Bradman, is over-rated.

    In our patriotic rush to elevate Cook we do miss out on what did make him and his journey so interesting. The beauty, achievement and greatness is in the detail.

    Observing the transit of Venus?
    ————————————————————————–

    As much as I support the Victorian deputy MO and her accurate metaphor about how the indigenous Australians were decimated by smallpox and syphilis, I also recognize the incredible achievements of Cook.

    Most of his amazing exploits are well known, but there a couple of adventures that are not often recognized.

    In 1773 he took the 34-meter-long Resolution, half the length of a Manly ferry, and the even smaller Adventure around the Pacific. And then on January 17th became the first to sail over the Antarctic Circle at 60 degrees south.

    From his log:

    “From the masthead, I could see nothing to the southward but ice in the whole extent, from east to southwest, without the least appearance of any partition. This immense field…was 16 to 18 feet high. I did not think it was consistent with safety of the ships or any way prudent for me to persevere in going further to the south.”

    It would be another 70 years before a ship sailed further south.

    Earlier in his career, in 1759, he was instrumental in producing the charts of the St. Lawrence River which helped enable General Wolfe to successfully attack the French under Montcalm at Quebec City and claim what became Canada for Britain.

    Cook and the masters of two other vessels, working under the range of French guns, re-charted and re-buoyed the St. Lawrence River approaches to Quebec.

    Cook’s charts of the St. Lawrence and Newfoundland waters were still being used a century later.

    That doesn’t include his exploration and charting of the west coast of North America, particularly what is now British Columbia.

    Over-rated?

  27. Boerwar

    “…. Trump reports seeing some light at the end of his tunnel.”
    ————

    Ooh … it can’t be good to imagine that 🙁

  28. Search the NSW case database for “contact not identified” and look at the last 2 weeks.
    You get only 17 cases.

  29. beguiledagain

    That is the amazeballs thing about those early 15-16-17-18th century sailors , the actual size of the ‘dinghies ‘ they set off into the unknown in.

  30. As much as I support the Victorian deputy MO and her accurate metaphor about how the indigenous Australians were decimated by smallpox and syphilis, I also recognize the incredible achievements of Cook.
    …..
    Over-rated?

    Oh, OK. Bradman tho…. That guy was over-rated.

  31. “Ocean warming is causing massive ice sheet loss in Greenland and Antarctica, NASA study showshttps://t.co/PX5Vi1irhZ A new study by NASA shows that Antarctica and Greenland’s ice sheets lost 118 gigatons and 200 gigatons of ice on average per year.— Svein T veitdal (@tveitdal) May 2, 2020”

    Thanks Rex. Its a good example of…….

    Oh i am so scared of the virus!!

    Hmmm….why are my shoes wet????

    We have a prob with the virus yes, but physics (not actually subject to viral infections) goes on regardless.

  32. beguiledagain @ #2788 Saturday, May 2nd, 2020 – 4:23 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, May 2, 2020 at 2:38 pm

    Most of his amazing exploits are well known, but there a couple of adventures that are not often recognized.

    In 1773 he took the 34-meter-long Resolution, half the length of a Manly ferry, and the even smaller Adventure around the Pacific. And then on January 17th became the first to sail over the Antarctic Circle at 60 degrees south.

    From his log:

    “From the masthead, I could see nothing to the southward but ice in the whole extent, from east to southwest, without the least appearance of any partition. This immense field…was 16 to 18 feet high. I did not think it was consistent with safety of the ships or any way prudent for me to persevere in going further to the south.”

    It would be another 70 years before a ship sailed further south.

    Cook’s charts of the St. Lawrence and Newfoundland waters were still being used a century later.

    That doesn’t include his exploration and charting of the west coast of North America, particularly what is now British Columbia.

    Over-rated?

    There was an excellent TV series a couple of years ago, with Sam Neill narrating, covering Cook’s Pacific voyages.
    The detail of his maps and the care for his men was astounding for the time.

    There was a book produced of the series titled The Pacific in the wake of Captain Cook.
    Author Meaghan Wilson Anastasios.
    It was a real eye opener to me.

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