A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.
The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.
Elsewhere:
• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.
• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.
• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.
Well that was easy
Davidwh @ #2047 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 5:57 pm
Fair call.
CC – I tend to agree that the model your referred to is probably very conservative outside of Sydney. I reckon the NT looks like it’s probably eliminated, unless it has missed testing remote communities.
I do think that the assumption behind their “dropping restrictions” case are quite artificial. It’s a nice enough assumption for modelling, but it doesn’t seem to reflect what’s happening.
It basically assumes that 60 days after March 27 all social distancing (apart from international travel I think) rules are dropped. That doesn’t seem to be happening.
So, I think the go as we are curve is ok, but I think the drop restrictions curve is very much of limited use.
Also I find out interesting that they seem to be putting NZ and Australia in the same category, given the differences in lockdown.
Donald bleach injection.
https://twitter.com/sarahcpr/status/1253474772702429189/video/1
“shellbellsays:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 6:05 pm
Well that was easy”
The app? Twas easy for me as well. Just waiting for the police to come break down my door now.
Message from Julia Zemira to teachers: https://twitter.com/i/status/1254320235529682944
As I understand it it will use the measure of signal strength to roughly guess how close the bluetooth transceivers are.
Ok, sure, but it’s going to be a pretty unusual case in Australia, and it should just be information provided to a real human being to chase up contacts once a positive test comes back, so there should be someone with a brain involved in the contact tracing. It’s just about providing automatic, quick, collection of leads for the contact tracers to do their thing with in addition to their existing interviews or whatever.
It remains to be seen how much of a problem this is. I would suspect that until the Apple/Google collaboration is integrated it probably generally won’t work very well, and probably will be a big drain on the phone battery. Let’s see what people using it say about it.
Personally, I’m not heading out of my apartment until Friday so I’ll wait to see what the feedback is over the next few days before installing it. And, given it’s entirely voluntary, I’m planning on disabling it, and Bluetooth, when I’m at home by myself and only enable it when I’m heading out.
Blobbitt
Yep
Someone at AFP is just going through my PB contributions right now.
a r @ #2034 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 5:32 pm
Yes, I wondered about that too. I don’t know if we should be more worried if they say “yes” or if they say “no”! 🙁
Ok, just a guess, but if the idea is to check how vulnerable a system is to hacking, then the ASD is probably a good place to ask since they’re supposed to be on top of both hacking other systems and stopping other people from hacking sensitive government systems.
Having children in years 12 and 11 and a son who is enjoying home schooling because of its recumbency opportunity, it is impossible not to be aware of the herculean at this time efforts made at all levels in education – plus the benevolence that comes with it.
Very fortunate.
I wonder when someone will pop up saying Bluetooth causes Covid19, and this is just a way for our overlords to further spread the disease.
“ We all hate Mundo, Andrew_Earlwood, but that kind of language won’t do.”
Fair cop, gov. You got me bang to right to rights.
That said, Mundo is so fucking monotonous and fracking brain dead in his anti Labor critique (and him a self describes Labor true believer as well) I simply couldn’t help myself.
To parse Peter Finch, I’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!
I would really prefer the source code to be released. I can’t see why not, unless there’s concern that the code could be adapted by future hackers. That works seem a legit reason.
Old chestnut resurfaces
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/sydney/nsw-deputy-premier-john-barilaro-considers-a-tilt-at-federal-politics/ar-BB13ckiG?ocid=spartanntp
Trump has announced that he has another surefire cure for the Virus: Kool-Aid.
Tried to download the app.
Failed 5 times. Looks like at least with my iPhone it doesn’t like it. Couldn’t get Bluetooth to sync or whatever.
I’ll wait till tomorrow.
Not overly confidence building
No new cases for the ACT today.
They seem, tenuously, to be indicating that they have traced the transmissions for the two latest cases which were announced yesterday and the day before.
Ian Chappell does write well. His memories of Graeme Watson who passed away in beautiful Burradoo
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/29096786/my-roomie-beatle
I am still struggling to understand how on earth is this app going to be beneficial
1-You will have people download the app (just for laughs and leave their phone at home) while going out in the public.
2-How will the app know if any one gets infected
3- What happens if some one loses their phone , or it gets stolen ?
4- The app is not going to do the purpose it meant to do
this is not going to end well , i hope i am wrong , just cannot see how the app is going to be effective
Scott @ #2070 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 6:56 pm
I think the main “benefit” of the app is to give Morrison ammunition – or at least some plausible justification – for his efforts to re-open the economy, despite it being far too early to even contemplate.
Fortunately, so far the states are showing at least a modicum of sense. Pray they hold the line.
Scott –
Ok, this is pretty straightforward IMO. All the app can possibly do is add information quickly to the existing contact tracing process. Of course there are a whole bunch of things that can result in the app giving non-useful information – but when the people who are checking up a positive test result have a look at any data available, that should become obvious fairly quickly.
If plenty of people use the app, and the app actually works reliably (which it probably won’t until the Apple/Google stuff gets added in), then it improves our contact tracing ability and reduces the risks associated with outbreaks, improving confidence in easing restrictions.
If no one uses the app, or the app just doesn’t work properly, then we get no benefit.
It’s not rocket science.
Thanks Shellbell
Burradoo is just over the way from one of my favourite pubs.
Player One says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 7:00 pm
Scott @ #2070 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 6:56 pm
I think the main “benefit” of the app is to give Morrison ammunition – or at least some plausible justification – for his efforts to re-open the economy, despite it being far too early to even contemplate.
——————————————–
Testing in majority of the cities/towns /villages would be more justification than the app
“It’s not rocket science.”
Gotta keep poking holes.
OTOH, not sure why my phone background has changed to a picture of Morrison’s family since I installed it.
“Testing in majority of the cities/towns /villages would be more justification than the app”
Can’t see that they’re mutually exclusive.
Mundo has probably done so little with his life he can’t being himself to refer to himself in the first person.
Jackol says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 7:03 pm
Scott –
Ok, this is pretty straightforward IMO. All the app can possibly do is add information quickly to the existing contact tracing process.
—————————————-
if over 50% of the population is not going to use it.
it is going to go the same way as the opinion polls did , the data which is received is going to be vastly different to the actual event .
Boerwar says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 6:47 pm
Trump has announced that he has another surefire cure for the Virus: Kool-Aid.
For trump supporters he recommends the best, Johnstown Kool-Aid.
Tracing all the casual or incidental contacts involving a known Covid case for up to three weeks is in some circumstances either very difficult or impossible. It is also vital.
If there is 100% take up then the App enables a significant additional tracing pathway.
What the App does, however imperfectly, is provide Tracers with an additional list of potential sources or further potential Covid cases from a known case.
This enables an additional means, however imperfect, of detecting and interrupting chains of infections.
The data in the Covid positive phone provides Tracers with a list of people, their names and their phone numbers.
At a population level, even if each use provides Tracers with only an additional name or two, it would be valuable.
Nothing is certain here and certainty is, IMO, an unreasonable test.
It is a matter of improving the possible or probable outcomes. Tracing is a resource-intensive activity. Reducing the tracing load and enabling Tracers to work more effectively, quickly and efficiently is inherently useful.
I make no comment on the mooted privacy issues because I do not understand the technical details involved.
Speaking of that report on covid19 infections in school kids that is not peer reviewed but has been latched onto by certain politicians and certain sycophants of said politicians.
I just saw the report about it on both ABC and SBS. ABC reported it as if it had merit, without looking for a contrary view. Whereas SBS actually found a contrary view and he said something pretty fucking obvious.
Its based on a period where hardly any kids were at school. So its all but meaningless.
With 100% take up the App would amplify the value of the testing effort by more efficient targeting.
Blobbit says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 7:06 pm
Can’t see that they’re mutually exclusive.
——————————————-
Well if you want justification to relax the restrictions , you would need more than an app with less than half of the population as statical justification .
UK
The public’s confidence in the government’s ability to handle the coronavirus crisis has fallen sharply in the past fortnight, with less than half of voters now having faith in decisions made by ministers, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
A particularly low proportion of people (15%) believe the government is handling the key issue of testing well (down from 22% two weeks ago). Some 57% disapprove of the way testing has been handled, up from 48% on 7 April.
“I do think that the assumption behind their “dropping restrictions” case are quite artificial.”
Blobbit. I don’t think their results regarding “adherence decay” (not “dropping restrictions”) is nearly pessimistic enough.
I think that if we dropped restrictions partially – to the point where crowds gathered in food courts and trains got busy again (which can happen with nowhere near full dropping) then we can say goodbye to elimination. Indeed, I think that crowds equals return to exponential spread. *
* Unless we have absolutely massive levels of ongoing testing, face masks etc. Neither of which this government seems to understand.
The biggest outbreak in NZ was school related.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12321000
The Liberal death squad rides.
“frednksays:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 7:22 pm
The biggest outbreak in NZ was school related.”
Transmission was following a school event with parents. Transmission had been adult to adult in the main as far as I’ve read.
Pretty easy to stop patents gathering.
“Blobbit. I don’t think their results regarding “adherence decay” (not “dropping restrictions”) is nearly pessimistic enough.”
I’m not seeing anyone suggesting the things you are. Also not interested in what you think people would like, absent of a clear recent statement to that end.
Scott
My view on the app is that the best that can be said for it is that it may speed up the tracing of contacts in some cases and speeding up traces may, occasionally, result in someone being isolated before becoming infectious, whereas without speedy tracing, might go on to infect someone. That’s a string of multiplied probabilities.
The app will never replace old fashioned interviews and detective work. In fact far more important than the app are the usual things tracking you – your phone company, your credit card provider, CCTV cameras etc. All of which are used already.
Another problem I have with this app is the decision to deliberately restrict contacts to high signal strength (close) contacts and contacts lasting more than 15 minutes. This overlooks the very clear (and well evidenced) danger of being in an enclosed space with someone who is shedding the virus. For instance, if someone boards a train and has the virus, you should be testing everyone in that carriage and the app as it is configured just wont do that.
“Unions try to protect members”
Liberal death squad makes international news.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8255341/Scott-Morrison-takes-swipe-whingeing-teachers-unions-complaining-going-class.html
Blobbit I actually talk to these modellers.
frednk
Did you notice my comment up page about the guy on SBS news pointing out that the study of school kids is pretty useless if its been done during a period where hardly any kids attended school.?
Blobbit
Going to be neat watching kids getting to and from school without any social contact. Have you ever stopped o consider which social activities generate the most social contact?
The Liberal death squad rides.
What the NZ cluster shows is that kids get the virus and kids pass on the virus. The fact that it happened in a social event and not in a classroom is neither here nor there.
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 7:28 pm
‘…
The app will never replace old fashioned interviews and detective work.
…’
False test. The App will enhance the power of old fashioned interviews and detective work.
“Boerwar says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 6:47 pm
Trump has announced that he has another surefire cure for the Virus: Kool-Aid.”
It would help everyone if Trump thought that chewing on Araldite would cure the virus.
BW where and how?
For a start, an app that has 40 percent adoption (very unlikely) will capture 16 percent (at most) of possible contacts. That’s ignoring a lot of contacts discarded by the app as being too short or not close enough.
Then you need to consider that of this rather small subset, most would have been caught by the manual process. Interview, phone calls, etc. Yes the app has the potential to catch contacts you didn’t know you had made, but that’s only relevant with very high takeup – which isn’t going to happen.
Perhaps we could rate NSW ALP leaders by the faux pas that lead to their demise:
Rees – Failed attempt at a coup against The Terrigals and later slept with a constituent who was requested assistance
Kennealy – lost an election
Robertson – gave a character reference to a terrorist
Foley – put his hand in the underpants of a journalist without a specific invitation
Daley – was Pauline Hanson in Katoomba and Sarah Hanson-Young in Balmain
I think sexual assault is probably the worst indiscretion
citizen that might help a lot of Trump supporters to shut up 🙂
‘Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, April 26, 2020 at 7:37 pm
BW where and how?
For a start, an app that has 40 percent adoption..’
Well, let’s all work together to get it up to 100%. It is a remarkably cheap way of saving additional lives through better and faster tracing.
SMH has a feature on the app going live and readers’ comments. Going by the first comment it seems ministerial staffers don’t have the weekend off 🙂
…………………………………………………………………………….
James Malone: Just downloaded it. Unbelievably powerful tool to help us contact trace as we start to ease restrictions. A temporary and only limited privacy concern. Benefits outweigh concerns by a very large margin. Can’t recommend highly enough. Possibly our best defence against an epidemic.