Essential Research coronavirus latest

Confidence in the federal government and other institutions on the rise, but state governments in New South Wales and Queensland appear to lag behind Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia.

The Guardian reports Essential Research’s latest weekly reading of concern about coronavirus finds satisfaction with the government’s handling of the crisis up two points to 65%, its best result yet out of the five such polls that have been published (no sign yet of the poor rating, which hit a new low of 17% – the full report later today should reveal all).

Last week’s question on state governments’ responses was repeated this week, and with due regard to sample sizes that run no higher than around 320 (and not even in triple figures in the case of South Australia), the good ratings have been 56% last week and 61% for New South Wales; 76% and 70% for Victoria; 52% and 63% for Queensland; 79% and 77% for Western Australia; and 72% and 66% for South Australia. Combining the results gives New South Wales 58.5% and Victoria 73% with error margins of about 3.7%; Queensland 57.5% from 4.6%; Western Australia 78% from 5.5%; and South Australia 69% from 6.9%.

Also included are Essential’s occasion question on trust in various institutions, which suggests that all of the above might be benefiting from a secular effect that has federal parliament up from 35% to 53% and the ABC up from 51% to 58%. The effect is more modest for the Australian Federal Police, up two points to 68%. In other coronavirus-related findings, the poll finds “half of all voters think it’s too soon to even consider easing restrictions“, with a further 14% saying they are prepared to wait until the end of May; that 38% said they would download the virus-tracing app, with 63% saying they had security concerns and 35% being confident the data would not be misused.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,133 thoughts on “Essential Research coronavirus latest”

Comments Page 6 of 23
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  1. Jerrie Demasi
    @JerrieDemasi
    UPDATED WA COVID19 STATISTICS:

    1 new case.

    A female health worker at RPH, she did not attend work with symptoms.

    546 total positive cases.
    443 recovered. 7 deaths. 96 active.
    26 in hospital. 5 in ICU.
    29,566 negative tests.

  2. Zwaktyld @ #231 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 2:21 pm

    lizzie
    says:
    Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 1:58 pm
    No doubt I’m being unfeeling, or something, but aren’t there any other operations more important than IVF?

    Lizzie, there are plenty of more important uses for medical resources, but very few as lucrative for the provider. Desperate people encouraged to spend multiple 1000’s for low success rates, where the solution to failure is more 1000’s to try again

    Removing the subsidies via medicare should be considered also (clearly there is no medical necessity)

    IVF is carried out in specialised clinics that are housed in normal buildings which are also occupied by the full range of services that can be carried out in office space, even useless chartered accountants. IVF does not displace any other medical service at all. If you believe that it does, you are, quite simply, ignorant. It is possible to educate oneself before jumping to conclusions. Try Google.

    The standard charge for a first round is $1500, less if more than one round is needed. I have 2 beautiful, healthy grand-daughters thanks to IVF. I think that they are better value than, for instance, a coronary artery bypass graft operation for an obese 78 year old with diabetes, costing $9500, but then, I am plainly biased. (Just stirring).

    Have you read Arne Naess?

  4. Danama Papers @ #247 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 2:51 pm

    Libertarianism is the natural enemy of religion, and vice versa.

    That’s interpretive.

    Take Ron Paul, for instance. Claims to be a libertarian, but his solution to issues concerning actual civil liberties such as marriage equality is to throw it down to the states so that the ones that want to let religious fundamentalism oppress the gays can do so.

    He’s happy to see the groups he doesn’t like oppressed, and even enable their oppression. That hardly makes him an effective opponent to the repressive fundies. Or an advocate for individual freedom and civil liberties, even. But he claims to be. Because “big government bad”. And nuance too.

  5. frednk @ #248 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 2:53 pm


    I want to be clear about a couple of things. The app only collects data and puts it into an encrypted national store which can only be accessed by the states and territories. The Commonwealth cannot access the data, no Commonwealth agency at the national level, not government services, not CentreLink, not Home Affairs Committee not the Department of education, nothing. The Commonwealth will have no access to that data.

    Very telling comment from the prime minister. He has accepted that people have a higher level of state government trust.

    Agreed it is telling comment. Perhaps a dig at Dutton and others. But while we can choose to believe him or not, even before any data get to the “national store” they will have traversed several intermediary stores. Who controls those? And what about other apps collecting this app’s openly broadcast data? (I’m not convinced this has been thought through.)

  6. One assumes that the apps establish an encrypted connection and then authenticate. So it would be useless to other apps.

  7. Late Riser:

    A thought on the “tracing app”, well several actually.

    The way I understand it is that the app will turn your phone into a broadcaster, repeatedly and constantly “pinging” the world around you with your phone number. Anyone nearby can listen in and record three things: your phone number, the signal strength, and the date and time. Never mind transmitting that data to Hunt’s or Dutton’s department for their use, what about non-government uses?

    It doesn’t send the phone number (at least not in the clear)

    It sends 15 minute TempIDs. These are generated centrally and have been encrypted using a shared key known only to the central authority. The central authority also knows the phone number of each user, and can determine the phone number from the decrypted TempID

    You wouldn’t need the original app to listen, you could have a different app that just listens. Even if the government app doesn’t transmit location, your location could be “triangulated”. And phones are cheap enough that you could monitor who comes and goes from your apartment, or shop, or office, or school, or church, or anywhere you want to surveil. Hackers too must be salivating. (And other devices too have bluetooth capabilities.) This isn’t straightforward.

    It is secure against third parties.

    Ben Rubenstein from the Uni of Melbourne and others have analysed it here:
    – https://eng.unimelb.edu.au/ingenium/research-stories/world-class-research/real-world-impact/on-the-privacy-of-tracetogether,-the-singaporean-covid-19-contact-tracing-mobile-app,-and-recommendations-for-australia
    Conclusions are:
    a – The TraceTogether app provides privacy from other users.
    b – The app keeps the users safe from snoopers (this addresses your point – hackers won’t be salivating)
    c – The app does not provide sufficient privacy from the Central Authority.
    d – The server can know the private data of a user even if they are not infected.
    e – The app can potentially be (mis-)used for surveillance.
    They give several suggestions as to how points c, d and e (which some people might worried about) can be addressed. However the most important point is not within their remit, namely that it is not effective at collecting the required information. This is mainly because the fraction of contacts detected is the square of the take-up rate, so even with 70% real take-up (as in, download and have running in the foreground, ALL THE TIME one is out of one’s house) it will collect less than half the contacts.

    This is why Apple and Google are working (together) to produce a working solution. They wouldn’t do this (Apple wouldn’t ordinarily touch it with a barge pole) unless it was necessary, which it is.

  9. I want to be clear about a couple of things. The app only collects data and puts it into an encrypted national store which can only be accessed by the states and territories. The Commonwealth cannot access the data, no Commonwealth agency at the national level, not government services, not CentreLink, not Home Affairs Committee not the Department of education, nothing. The Commonwealth will have no access to that data.

    Then it should be a simple thing to legislate at a federal level a specific use for that data and indicate criminal penalties for misuse outside of the definition. The fact that only State governments will have carte blanche access doesn’t make many people any more comfortable. Either it’s specific to a single use (Covid-19 contact tracing) or it’s bullshit.

  10. I think ‘elective’ surgery should start again ASA (reasonably)P-people still need hip and knee replacements and all manner of other things- and the cases are banking up everyday.
    Normal health problems have not stopped because of corona.

  11. Late Riser @ #255 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 3:09 pm

    frednk @ #248 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 2:53 pm


    I want to be clear about a couple of things. The app only collects data and puts it into an encrypted national store which can only be accessed by the states and territories. The Commonwealth cannot access the data, no Commonwealth agency at the national level, not government services, not CentreLink, not Home Affairs Committee not the Department of education, nothing. The Commonwealth will have no access to that data.

    Very telling comment from the prime minister. He has accepted that people have a higher level of state government trust.

    Agreed it is telling comment. Perhaps a dig at Dutton and others. But while we can choose to believe him or not, even before any data get to the “national store” they will have traversed several intermediary stores. Who controls those? And what about other apps collecting this app’s openly broadcast data? (I’m not convinced this has been thought through.)

    Thanks goodness David Kalisch is no longer head of the Bureau of Statistics. This data would have definitely been a candidate to add to his “Big Data Warehouse” and linked to all your other personal data. Yes, it would be “anonymized” and “secure” … but it would be about as hard to de-anonymize as your Census data, and about as secure as your MyHealth data 🙁

    I don’t know much about Kalisch’s replacement – David Gruen – except that he comes from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and appears to have no relevant qualifications at all. Therefore, I would trust him about as far as I trusted his predecessor.

  12. yabba

    So you weren’t taking things personally when you flared up in defence of your grand-daughters’ conception?

    Arne Naess and deep ecology. I like this.

    Deep ecology, which called for population reduction, soft technology and non-interference in the natural world

  16. Philip Lowe, the RBA governor, channeling Morrison:

    and that a bridge has been built to get us to the other side.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/21/australia-coronavirus-live-updates-oil-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-latest-news-update?page=with:block-5e9e82b68f08ce473efe2c65#block-5e9e82b68f08ce473efe2c65

    A suggestion for the governor – probably best to avoid using the spin of the party in government if you want to be seen as independent…

  17. David Gruen was the top economist at Treasury during the GFC. He was tipped to become chief statistician back in 2014, but instead was given a job as deputy secretary on economic matters in PM&C.

    At Treasury, Gruen was executive director, domestic, in the macroeconomic group. He was appointed to the very senior role in 2008, five years after he started working at the department.
    He worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia for 13 years, leading the research department from 1998 to 2002, and during the 1990s was a researcher at the Australian National University’s Research School of Physical Sciences.
    Gruen was awarded a Fullbright Postdoctoral Fellowship and was a visiting lecturer in the economics department and the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University from 1991 to 1993. He has two doctorates — in physiology from Cambridge and economics from the Australian National University — as well as an honours degree in theoretical physics.

    The new PM&C economic boss comes from a family of highly respected economists. His brother is Lateral Economics CEO Dr Nicholas Gruen and their father Fred Gruen was an agricultural economics professor at Monash University.

    Source: https://www.themandarin.com.au/3627-statistical-anomaly-treasury-david-gruen-prime-minister-cabinet/

    My memory may be faulty, but I think some people also saw him as Martin Parkinson’s logical replacement, but Abbott preferred to make a political appointment to that role.

  18. This from MoneyMag

    “IVF out-of-pocket expenses
    It varies depending on your own circumstances and how many IVF cycles you need before you either fall pregnant or abandon the idea. Or if you opt for a frozen embryo transfer or insemination, there are additional costs.

    Health insurer Bupa says the typical cost for one IVF cycle is $8000 to $10,000 with Medicare covering around 48%. It estimates the out-of-pocket costs will be $3200 to $4200. If you have four IVF cycles, you will be looking at $12,800 to $16,800.

    One IVF operator, IVF Australia, estimates out-of-pocket costs to be $5042 per IVF cycle plus $2313 after the rebate for a frozen embryo transfer or $2046 for an insemination.

    As with any service, it is worth shopping around as it is a highly competitive market worth around $550 million in revenue, according to market researcher IBISWorld. As companies vie for market share, couples can benefit from the competition.”

  19. More on David Gruen from https://behaviouraleconomics.pmc.gov.au/behavioural-exchange-2018/speaker/david-gruen

    Dr David Gruen is the Deputy Secretary, Economic at the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and Australia’s G20 Sherpa. Before joining the Department in September 2014, he was Executive Director of Macroeconomic Group at the Australian Treasury.

    He joined the Treasury in January 2003. Before joining the Treasury in 2003, he was Head of Economic Research Department at the Reserve Bank of Australia from May 1998 to December 2002.

    Before joining the Reserve Bank, he worked as a research scientist in the Research School of Physical Sciences at the Australian National University.

    With financial support from a Fulbright Postdoctoral Fellowship, he was visiting lecturer in the Economics Department and the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University from August 1991 to June 1993. He holds PhD degrees in physiology from Cambridge University, England and in economics from the Australian National University.

    Sounds like a very smart cookie

  20. Religion is useful for Libertarianists.
    It helps them Liberate the rest of the population from their land and money…

  21. Those IVF costs seem pretty standard (educated myself doing quick research on Google as you instructed Yabba)

    Your family’s costs seem extraordinarily low.

  22. The summer bushfires released more carbon than the whole of Australia in 2019.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/21/summers-bushfires-released-more-carbon-dioxide-than-australia-does-in-a-year

    So what are the bets on the fastest shift in Liberal party rhetoric in recent history to say that Australia’s GHG accounting now should NOT include land use changes? Of course, without this fig leaf Australia cannot be shown to have met our GHG targets under Kyoto or Paris. So the jig is finally up for the Liberal parties GHG emission accounting scam.

  23. Hurrah, we won’t have a recession. Instead we have a bright and shiny new “contraction” and not just any old ‘contraction’ a one in a 100 years one.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………..
    RBA isn’t referring to the economic contraction as a recession, Lowe said it is “very different to a

    normal

    business cycle downturn”.

    “It’s a once in a century event – a market contraction we will recover from. The label isn’t important, it’s a once in a century contraction.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/21/australia-coronavirus-live-updates-oil-nsw-victoria-qld-schools-latest-news-update

  26. US President Donald Trump said late Monday night that he will sign an executive order temporarily suspending immigration to the US, as the nation battles the health and economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

    He added that the measure was done “in light of the attack from the invisible enemy”

    “Everyone get back to work, protest in the streets if you have to, it’s fine. But by the way, no immigration; too dangerous!”

  29. @WhistlingWhist
    ·
    8m

    Damn, it’s expired but the cosy chat Speers had with #Dutton in late feb/early March on #Insiders is worth revisiting. Dutton lied non-stop about measures already in place at ports and airports to keep his borders safe. Nothing was in place and little has changed.

  30. bc @ #267 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 3:38 pm

    David Gruen was the top economist at Treasury during the GFC. He was tipped to become chief statistician back in 2014, but instead was given a job as deputy secretary on economic matters in PM&C.

    Thanks, bc!

    So he has qualifications, just not in statistics. He’s more of a policy wonk. Although someone with a physics and economics background would be expected to have some experience with statistics, it still seems a slightly odd choice. He seems over qualified, if anything. Makes you wonder …

  32. ItzaDream @ #243 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 2:45 pm

    C@tmomma @ #207 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 1:28 pm

    Tristo,
    Check out South Dakota’s per capita numbers. Simply horrendous because their Republican Governor is a libertarian and religious nutjob. That is a state in the middle of America that is already experiencing the Coronavirus wave breaking over it big time.

    Speaking of middle America, I’m reading that the admission rate to ITU in the under-60s doubles with obesity (BMI>30).

    There’s a lot of fat people in middle America.

    I read recently that obese Americans will become the majority in the near future. 😯

  33. lizzie @ #279 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 3:59 pm

    @WhistlingWhist
    ·
    8m

    Damn, it’s expired but the cosy chat Speers had with #Dutton in late feb/early March on #Insiders is worth revisiting. Dutton lied non-stop about measures already in place at ports and airports to keep his borders safe. Nothing was in place and little has changed.

    A narcissist believes they can charm the pants off anyone and lie their way out of trouble.

  35. Rick
    @colonelhogans
    ·
    2m
    Honestly @JoshFrydenberg needs to explain to Australians why casuals with less than one years service, get nothing while rugby union players, barristers and other hugely paid people can claim $750 a week Job Payment cause they’re salary dropped. This is insanity!

  36. lizzie @ #275 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 3:51 pm

    Has Trump commented on the illness of his friend Kim?

    I just heard on the news that the problem with Kim is complications from heart surgery. Speaking of obesity. The guy is only 36!

    Also my son was wondering if he has any children yet and what age they are because N.Korea might end up with a King Tut situation if Kim dies!

    Apropos COVID-19, it attacks the heart muscle as well as the lungs. Hmm.

  37. Player One

    Many years ago I was told that the down turn of the Great Depression was originally called a ‘depression’ as it sounded less ‘threatening’. A bit of a euphemism to calm the horses , perhaps ‘contraction’ is it’s you beaut replacement.

  38. Thanks again E. G. Theodore. That article is clear enough.

    * The “TraceTogether” server needs to do the job of generating, transmitting and then remembering 10s of millions of IDs every 15 minutes. I would not like the responsibility of maintaining such a brute. How someone like Stuart Roberts will cope is a big question.

    * The server triggers the app on any particular phone to upload its data. We are told this will be only done if the owner of the phone consents. Whether malicious or accidental though I doubt this can be guaranteed. I can imagine a headline wtte “Massive Data Breach Caused By Accidental Trigger”. Because it will take too long to re-engineer the app this design flaw will probably remain.

    * Data are almost never truly deleted and there is uncertainty over the long term access. The relevance of most data degrades over time, but some such as proximity between select people (eg Barnaby Joyce +1) will not.

    Sigh. Maybe I’m overly cautious (paranoid). But thanks for that link.

  41. poroti @ #287 Tuesday, April 21st, 2020 – 4:21 pm

    Player One

    Many years ago I was told that the down turn of the Great Depression was originally called a ‘depression’ as it sounded less ‘threatening’. A bit of a euphemism to calm the horses , perhaps ‘contraction’ is it’s you beaut replacement.

    I’m guessing a bloke come up with this term. Women would probably find the term “contractions” painful to contemplate! 🙂

  42. Can you imagine the screaming if Labor was in Government now –

    RBA Sees GDP Falling 10% in First Half, Unemployment Hitting 10%

    Australia’s central bank chief said the nation’s economy is likely to suffer the biggest contraction in national output and income since the 1930s, while holding out the prospect of a rebound on the other side of the coronavirus restrictions.

    “National output is likely to fall by around 10% over the first half of 2020, with most of this decline taking place in the June quarter,” Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said in a speech in Sydney Tuesday. “The unemployment rate is likely to be around 10% by June, although I am hopeful that it might be lower than this if businesses are able to retain their employees on lower hours.”

    Australia is spiraling toward its first recession since 1991

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/rba-sees-gdp-falling-10-in-first-half-unemployment-hitting-10?srnd=markets-vp

  43. The issue the ALP needs to hit is the economy. The talk of “reforms” isn’t going to make people feel any happier.

  44. Player One

    😆 True. I’m surprised he didn’t try for “a period of robust negative growth” or “A period of strong growth in available worker numbers” .

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