What the papers say

Random notes on coronavirus and opinion poll response rates, election postponements and a call to give counting of pre-poll votes a head start on election night.

No Newspoll this week it seems – which is unfortunate, because a report in New York Times ($) suggests coronavirus lockdowns are doing wonders for opinion poll response rates:

Even in online surveys, pollsters have also seen an increase in participation over the past few weeks. At the Pew Research Center, which does most of its polling through the online American Trends Panel, many respondents filled in a voluntary-comments box in a recent survey with expressions of gratitude.

It is inferred that “a wider variety of people are willing to tell pollsters what they think, so it’s more likely that a poll’s respondents will come closer to reflecting the makeup of the general population.”

Coronavirus is rather less conducive to the staging of actual elections, the latest casualty being the May 30 date that was set for Tasmania’s Legislative Council seats of Huon Rosevears, which was itself a postponement from the traditional first Saturday of the month. The government has now invoked a recently legislated power to set the date for a yet-to-be-determined Saturday in June, July and August. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has expressed the view that a fully postal election, as some were advocating, did not count as an election under the state’s existing Electoral Act.

Tasmania and other jurisdictions with elections looming on their calendars might perhaps look to South Korea, which proceeded with its legislative elections on Wednesday. As reported in The Economist ($):

All voters will have their temperature taken before entering their polling station (those found to have fever or other symptoms will be directed to a separate polling booth). They will also have to wear a face mask, sanitise their hands and put on vinyl gloves before picking up a ballot paper and entering the booth. Election stewards will ensure people keep away from each other while queueing and voting. Door knobs, pencils and ballot boxes will be sterilised often.

Other than that, I can offer the following in the way of recommended reading: Antony Green’s post calling for pre-poll votes to be counted under wraps on election day starting from 2pm. This would address issues arising from the huge imbalance between election day booths, only one of which processed more than 4000 votes at the May 2019 federal election, and the three weeks’ accumulation of votes cast at pre-poll booths, of which 901 cleared 4000 votes, including 208 that went above 10,000 and ten with more than 20,000 (UPDATE: Make that 370 of more than 4000 and 208 of more than 10,000 – turns out the numbers in the table are cumulative). The result is that the largest pre-poll booths are not reporting until very late at night, many hours after the last trickles of election booths runs dry.

This has sometimes caused election counts to take on different complexions at the end of the evening — to some extent at the Victorian state election in November 2018, which ended a little less catastrophic for the Liberals than the election day results suggested, and certainly at the Wentworth by-election the previous month, when Liberal candidate Dave Sharma briefly rose from the dead in his struggle with the ultimately victorious Kerryn Phelps. It is noted that pre-poll votes in New Zealand are counted throughout election day itself, which is made practical by a ban on any election campaigning on the day itself, freeing up party volunteers for scrutineering who in Australia would be staffing polling booths.

Antony also argues against reducing the pre-poll period from three weeks to two, for which there has been quite a broad push since last year’s election, as it will lead to greater demand for the less secure option of postal voting, stimulated by the efforts of the political parties.

Also note my extensive post below on recent events in Wisconsin – you are encouraged to use that thread if you have something to offer specifically on American politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

769 comments on “What the papers say”

Comments Page 3 of 16
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  1. Alpha zero

    We are winning because despite the flaws with the govt strategy, they have put 130 billion dollars into supporting the economy in the short term.

    From my calculations starting next week, a couple who have lost their jobs and have children for eg. will be getting at least 1100 per week together with the usual family payments. They can stay home and not be under the financial stress that many other people are experiencing in some parts of the world.

  2. I can’t help but wonder if Malcolm left his e-book lying around where it would be found.
    (See also: honeypot, canary trap, monkey jar.)

  6. Malcolm has achieved the best publicity possible by getting the book leaked…

    My God(win Gretch), he knows what the inner sanctum there is like.

  8. Three cheers for Daniel Andrews and the other state leaders.
    Hang on! Mundo! That can’t be right, Andrews is Labor!
    Don’t worry Mundo, the voters won’t let it happen again!

  9. Goll @ #90 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:15 am

    Mundo
    No Scrotes, thank goodness, but plenty of lifelong political operatives.
    Labor has plenty of good, fair and workable policies.
    Get over it.

    You’re asking a lot from moano, Goll. However, I agree, luckily Labor don’t have Slippery leading their team, and from Day 1 Albanese has set his course for a kinder, gentler party. Quite the contrast to the Coalition.

    Labor don’t need to be a meaner, bigger, badder version of the Coalition. That’s yesterday’s politics. They are charting a course for the Post Trumpian World. mundo just hasn’t caught up yet and I doubt he ever will.

  11. meher baba –

    But maybe I’m just a grumpy old man.

    Seems likely.

    Higher education as a whole can’t go back to the old days simply because the workforce requirements are such that low-skilled jobs are a much lower proportion of the workforce.

    Whether ‘universities’ should be the venue for this training is another question entirely, but for whatever historical reasons we’ve seen ‘universities’ become the one-size-fits-all answer to whatever question is asked about what people do after high school.

    Other countries have a more clearly defined technical college vs university distinction, which makes a lot of sense to me. But all our institutions that were nominally non-universities decided/were forced into turning into universities (or at least calling themselves universities) – in Perth WAIT became Curtin Uni, WACAE became Edith Cowan Uni etc – presumably due to structural changes imposed by government policy, but also a status/snobbery associated with universities that meant being described as a college or institute was looked down on.

    TAFE, of course, has fared the worst and has been run down appallingly, where it could/should have been developed to raise its standards/appeal as a training destination and evolved to take over some of the more technical training aspects that universities now are responsible for.

    To a certain extent whether things are called ‘universities’ or something else should be largely irrelevant. We definitely had to expand the post-high school system, we just chose/happened to end up with what we have now. Focusing on diversifying the sector and breaking up the (current) function of universities more clearly into research/niche academic training vs production line churning out highly skilled workforce participants might go some way to fixing some of those tensions and satisfying the nostalgia for the elitism/ivory tower/quaint cloistered cultural centres of the past.

  12. meher baba @ #97 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:28 am

    One possible way forward would be a total re-engineering of the university sector back to something more akin to the pre-Dawkins model. Universities would be encouraged to stop thinking about themselves as being like “businesses” and go back to the idea of being institutions that are one step beyond schools.

    I have to agree with this. I remember a time when a degree from an Australian university was accepted as a valued qualification, pretty much worldwide. Now, many are barely worth the paper they are printed on. I was quite shocked when a company I used to work for decided (unofficially) that it would no longer accept a single Australian degree as sufficient qualification for new employees. If they were Australian degrees then you needed at least two.

  13. Greg Sheridan has just hung up on Virginia Trioli on ABC Melbourne. Raving lunatic, why the hell is he even given airtime?

  14. From the same Daily Telegraph article

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/hibernation/most-watched-shows-on-australian-tv-right-now-as-coronavirus-lockdown-continues/news-story/9e8947b3e0ebb6936ec8c95d60e4eb9e

    I don’t have Netflix and prolly won’t bother.

    I think the over acting with Shaun Micallef is what turns me off.
    Horses for courses and you pays (or not) your money and takes your choice.

    I have been watching ABC News with Mr. Stuart Robert telling us that all is well with the Contact App – followed by Mr. D. Trump saying lots of words.

    Would that contact App be suitable for use by Private Detective dudes on the trail of norty husbands or wives ❓ Of course, being Gummint operated, there would be no chance of hacking or misuse.

    I used to think I have big ears. Mr. S. Robert ………………….👂👂

    Fascinating item from “The Australian”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/take-care-with-this-home-beauty-routine/news-story/9aaa1136955e6eedf387195055c1f307

  16. meher baba @ #97 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:28 am

    I rather hate what the universities have turned into. Most university libraries have now locked almost all of their books away in off-site storage: particularly those dealing with non-commercial aspects of intellectual life such as the humanities, higher mathematics, theoretical physics, etc. Some universities are now digitalising these books and then selling them to book dealers. The space freed-up in the libraries has been replaced by coffee bars and row after row of desktop computers.

    To me it all sucks big time. But maybe I’m just a grumpy old man.

    As a former Librarian in one of our University Libraries I understand where you are coming from. However no extra library space to store physical books in the libraries was going to be forthcoming and there is the need to provide workspaces for the increasing numbers of students.
    At least with electronic books we do not end up with 20+ copies of a physical text that will superceeded almost annually and the digital versions are easier to ensure a fair distribution amongst the students.
    Moving the lesser used books into storage areas maybe a pain to retrieve but at least they are still available upon request. Digitizing them where possible, also makes them more accessible and is part of the conservation programs.
    Selling the old texts to book dealers to digitize I had not heard about but I have now been away from Libraries for 5 years. I imagine there would not be many they would want, unless part of some rather dubious dealings around an academic writing a chapter for an electronic text book and making it a set text. Our library and the University was activily working against this.

  19. “I reckon Cud will want to get a hold of that Nick Cater article about the modelling and chew it to pieces! ”

    C@t do you have the link?

  20. The crazies in America are reflections of the delusion that social, religious and political beliefs will confer immunity on those who hold those beliefs.

    We saw mullahs in Iran, rabbis in Israel and Happy Clappers in America all refusing to alter their social behaviours, indeed explicitly claiming immunity for themselves and their followers.

    We now see libertarians and MAGAs in America abandoning social distancing because they believe their faith in a piece of paper – the US Constitution – and the words printed on it, plus the inconsistent rantings of their President will protect them.

    Here we saw equally deluded people claiming that being nice to each other was all that was needed to shrug off the virus. Proposals to stop inbound travellers from China (tourists and students alike) were classed as “racism” rather than prudent measures. Boycotting of areas where Chinese tourists congregated, even when the Chinese community itself led those boycotts in vast numbers, were written off as “White Australia Reborn”.

    The World has been waiting for this virus. It’s highly contagious, but largely asymptomatic in the most socially irresponsible demographic: the 0-39 age group. Above that it gets quite vicious, particularly if local availability of ICU facilities has been allowed to languish. But even older age groups share the longish incubation period.

    If the virus killed gruesomely within one day – as Ebola often does, and also meningococcal disease (yes, I know meningococcal’s a bacterium) – we’d be much more vigilant and careful. But because it spreads throughout a community before it starts causing illness, the social urge, and misplaced moral considerations were allowed to take precedence.

    If it killed more rapidly, or affected all age demographics equally, it probably wouldn’t have spread so widely. If it was more virulent the Chinese government could not have covered up it’s existence as well as they did (until it was too late).

    What a clever virus: it sits in an almost perfect sweet spot for combining human transmission with megadeaths.

    An ideal virus – from a virus’s point of view – would be equally contagious, but wouldn’t cause any symptoms at all. That way everyone would get it, and get over it. But if we’re talking fatal viruses, this one’s about as good as it gets.

    It could only be worse if a long symptomless (but contagious) period was combined with universal mortality, but at a much later date. Let’s hope there isn’t one like that out there just waiting to jump the species gap.

    In the meantime we need to stop whingeing about various “rights” being violated and quit projecting our own views of what’s “moral” (and conversely “immoral”) onto an uncaring speck of barely organized RNA that’s about to kill millions, unless an universally accessible treatment or vaccine is found that will control it.

    With that in mind, after several day’s thinking about it, I’ve decided that I will be installing the virus app on my phone, despite obvious misgivings as to the Morrison government’s probity when it comes to personal privacy.

    When it comes to coronavirus, the “sacrifice” of “freedom” is more in my mind than it is something real. Not doing it is pretty much as overly dramatic and silly as those placard waving Trumpists outside state legislatures raving about a piece of paper.

    Put yourself in the position of receiving notification that you were unwittingly in close proximity to an infectious person. The notification tells you to get tested straightaway, with a view to early medical intervention if you are infected, perhaps treating the disease before it takes over your body and its vital organs. You’d also be protecting yoyr own loved ones.

    Is any ideal worth declining that opportunity?

  21. Goll @ #105 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:44 am

    Three cheers for Daniel Andrews and the other state leaders.
    Hang on! Mundo! That can’t be right, Andrews is Labor!
    Don’t worry Mundo, the voters won’t let it happen again!

    As I’ve said on more than one occasion, why do so many state Labor leaders run rings their federal counterpart?
    Find a safe federal seat for Dan Andrews pronto…..

  22. The Dawkins reforms were all about increasing the number of university places. A degree was a ticket to higher income, so the idea was to maximise the number of people with degrees. This is along the lines of ‘let’s print more money so we can all be rich’.

    Unsurprisingly, the result was inflation, where jobs that used to require a single bachelor degree now require two, or a master’s. So we’re back where we started.

  23. Socrates @8:28

    HSR might be an economic game changer, but not the version of HSR that was proposed in 2013. Labor needs to update its policy.

  24. Player One @ #114 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:56 am

    C@tmomma @ #109 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:46 am

    … from Day 1 Albanese has set his course for a kinder, gentler party.

    From Day 1 Albanese has set his course for a kinder, gentler opposition. There is very little likelihood of such an approach leading to government.

    You wouldn’t think it possible for Labor to become any more supine…..then along comes Gentle Albo, who used to fight tories they say…..

  26. Ah, yes. I missed Belgium and San Marino. I suppose if anyone in the Vatican dies of COVID-19, they’ll jump to the top.

  29. Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1

    CNN’s @JDiamond1: “Is this really the time for self-congratulations?”
    Trump says he’s standing up for others who’ve done an incredible job.

    Diamond: The clips you played weren’t of praise for others, just yourself.
    Trump attacks: “You don’t have the brains you were born with.”

  30. Mundo
    Australia’s success at this point in reining in the spread of the virus is more than commendable.
    Now watch the Federal LNP fall over themselves to garner the responsibility.

  32. Oh nvm

    Found the Nick Cater article but its paywalled.
    But from the headline its just a rubbish attack on the ABC.
    Presumably he doesn’t get what a “projection” is.
    I see he’s also from Menzies.

  33. Cud Chewer @ #119 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    “I reckon Cud will want to get a hold of that Nick Cater article about the modelling and chew it to pieces! ”

    C@t do you have the link?

    Maybe —

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/abc-saw-the-coronavirus-future-but-it-still-hasnt-arrived/news-story/486881b19c97b7fe8afc84eecf369eda

    To be fair to Norman Swan, he wasn’t the only one to caution that unless we sat motionless in a corner and wrapped ourselves in Glad Wrap we’d be heading down the Italian route before we knew it.

    Computer modellers, like the ABC, have been found wanting in this pandemic. The reasons are not dissimilar; both are prone to selection bias, both are inclined towards omniscience and neither is afraid to go where Albert Einstein feared to tread.

    Einstein once wrote that some things “were beyond the reach of exact prediction because of the variety of factors in operation”. That was in 1930, however, before the invention of the Excel spreadsheet, a tool that allows us to forecast with unwarranted certainty on subjects we barely understand.

    Swan was right to encourage his Twitter followers to “believe in maths not magic”. The difficulty with computer modelling, however, is that it’s hard say which it is.

    Quite a lengthy article – —

  35. Goll @ #127 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:03 am

    Mundo
    Australia’s success at this point in reining in the spread of the virus is more than commendable.
    Now watch the Federal LNP fall over themselves to garner the responsibility.

    They won’t have to try very hard, Scrote’s media canonization is not far off.
    The important thing is that Gentle Albo and Sleepy Jim don’t rain on his parade.

  38. KayJay @ #133 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:08 am

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/abc-saw-the-coronavirus-future-but-it-still-hasnt-arrived/news-story/486881b19c97b7fe8afc84eecf369eda

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    To be fair to Norman Swan, he wasn’t the only one to caution that unless we sat motionless in a corner and wrapped ourselves in Glad Wrap we’d be heading down the Italian route before we knew it.

    Computer modellers, like the ABC, have been found wanting in this pandemic. The reasons are not dissimilar; both are prone to selection bias, both are inclined towards omniscience and neither is afraid to go where Albert Einstein feared to tread.

    Einstein once wrote that some things “were beyond the reach of exact prediction because of the variety of factors in operation”. That was in 1930, however, before the invention of the Excel spreadsheet, a tool that allows us to forecast with unwarranted certainty on subjects we barely understand.

    Swan was right to encourage his Twitter followers to “believe in maths not magic”. The difficulty with computer modelling, however, is that it’s hard say which it is.

    Quite a lengthy article – —

    And, it seems, an egregiously stupid one. One of the points of modelling is to determine what action you need to take to avoid the outcome of that modelling.

    If the outcome still matches your original modelling, you have failed very badly! 🙁

  39. meher baba

    It would be wonderful if all you wished for re tertiary education came. to pass.

    The ‘corruption’ of the system was brought home to me about a decade back. A guy at the company I worked at had joined us after recently quitting academia. He big complaint that was the final straw was re full fee students. He said before if a student was failing it was the student who had a problem. Now he said if a student is failing he was to ‘blame’ as far as the uni went. He was a Eureka prize winner so he knew his stuff. He took a big pay cut to work for us but as far as he was concerned it was worth it.

  40. ‘The Morrison government is facing demands from the business sector to overhaul key parts of its $130 billion JobKeeper program as firms face impossible decisions to take on large debts to pay staff or even break up long-lasting partnerships.’

    Come on Sleepy Jim, time to go to work!

  42. Cud Chewer @ #119 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 9:57 am

    “I reckon Cud will want to get a hold of that Nick Cater article about the modelling and chew it to pieces! ”

    C@t do you have the link?

    Nah, you’ll have to perform tech wizardry yourself. It was on KayJay’s snapshot of The Lolstralian opinion page earlier on the thread.

    Now, back to Lego Masters. 🙂

  43. The worst aspect of the Dawkins reforms, from my personal viewpoint, is that my college disappeared from the Earth, absorbed by Monash University. On the plus side, I can now legally say I have a degree from one of the country’s leading universities, but I still feel robbed of a part of my heritage.

  45. Cud Chewer @ #136 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:11 am

    Thanks KayJay

    That little bit you quoted is plain laughable. This person is seriously damaged.

    Why — how dare you — 😵

    Question without much notice –

    A few days ago there were a few post about “Creeping Oxalis” which I took to be a reference to the Assholes in Gummint – but now I find the damn stuff has made a come back in my lawn.

    Woe is me lawdy, lawdy

    ♫♪♫♪ I got a slow rollin’ low
    Ain’t a mother would want me
    Done got me so down bent out of round
    Don’t know my head from my toes
    Ain’t a hand here to hold
    Ain’t a shoulder to cry on ♪♫♪♫

  46. phoenixRED @ #129 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:02 am

    Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1

    CNN’s @JDiamond1: “Is this really the time for self-congratulations?”
    Trump says he’s standing up for others who’ve done an incredible job.

    Diamond: The clips you played weren’t of praise for others, just yourself.
    Trump attacks: “You don’t have the brains you were born with.”

    Trump was born with a lizard brain.

  49. Ante Meridian @ #143 Monday, April 20th, 2020 – 10:20 am

    The worst aspect of the Dawkins reforms …

    The Dawkins “reforms” were a failure. This is from Wikipedia …

    The reforms were aimed at enhancing the “quality, diversity and equity of access” to education while improving the “international competitiveness” of Australian universities, as well as a solution for the perceived brain drain …

    The “brain drain” existed because our universities produced graduates that were so highly regarded that they could very easily get far better salaries overseas than they could in Australia. The right solution to the “brain drain” would have been to provide more opportunities in Australia, and/or increase wages – not “dumb down” our Universities so that the degrees eventually became worthless 🙁

  50. Nick Cater is from the Conservative school of Paul Kelly Wannabes. Lots of words, portentously written………to a script determined by the Master……….ultimately contributing very little of worth……..except to the Disinformation Wars.

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