Ipsos Issues Monitor and much else

An Ipsos issue salience poll finds environmental concerns elbowed aside by health care and the economy. Also: prospects for elections amid coronavirus in Queensland and the Northern Territory, finalisation of the Brisbane City Council election, and a Greens plebiscite on leader selection.

Ipsos has published its latest Issues Monitor survey results, in which respondents are presented with 19 issues and asked to identify the three of greatest concern. This is conducted monthly but published haphazardly: the last set of results was published on the precipice of our new era back in January, but the accompanying chart in the latest release allows you to at least eyeball the results from February and March. The big news in January was an unprecedented concern about the environment in the wake of the bushfires, pushing that issue to the top of the pile for the first time. It has now been put into the shade by a massive surge of concern about three issues: health care, up since January from 31% to 55%; the economy, up from 25% to 47%; unemployment, for which the result went unpublished in January (it was at 18% in December) and is now at 39%. The environment is now equal fourth on 22%, down from 41%, where it ranks alongside cost of living, down from 31%.

The Ipsos release also features results on the best party to handle the five aforesaid issues, which are consistent with an improved standing for the Coalition since December, the last time comparable figures were published. Most striking is its improvement on its traditional weak spot of health care, on which it now leads Labor by 34% (up eight) to 29% (steady), with the caveat that 7% favoured the Greens and most of those would presumably have Labor as a second preference (a further 3% favoured another party). The Coalition has also widened its lead on the economy, up seven to 43% with Labor down to 22%, the Greens on 5% and others on 3%, and gained five on cost of living to 34%, with Labor steady on 29%, the Greens on 7% and others on 4%. It also holds a lead over Labor of 34% to 28% on unemployment, with the Greens on 6% and others on 3%, no figures from December being available for comparison in this case. On the environment, the Coalition is up four to 23%, Labor is down one to 17%, the Greens are on 28% and others are on 6%.

The poll was conducted online from a sample of 1000, and was presumably conducted over the previous fortnight, but all we are told is that the numbers are for April.

Further news:

• The count for the Brisbane City Council election is now all but complete, confirming a repeat of the 2016 result with the Liberal National Party winning 19 seats to Labor’s five and the Greens’ one, plus independent Nicole Johnston in Tennyson. The Greens came within an ace of taking Paddington off the LNP but no cigar, with LNP incumbent Peter Matic prevailing by 11,064 (50.7%) to 10,753 (49.3%) after preferences, a margin of 311 votes. Unlike at state elections, optional preferential voting prevails at Queensland’s local government elections, in this case to the advantage of the LNP since many preferences that might otherwise have flowed between Labor and the Greens instead exhausted. As Antony Green notes on Twitter, this certainly made the difference in Paddington, and might have saved the LNP from Labor in their three most marginal wards. LNP incumbent Adrian Schrinner’s winning margin over Labor’s Pat Condren for the Brisbane lord mayoralty was 286,297 (56.4%) to 221,309 (43.6%).

• Annastacia Palaszczuk has raised the prospect of Queensland’s October 31 state election being held entirely by post, as has been advocated by Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington. The ABC reports the next update of federal government modelling on the spread of the virus in around two weeks will guide a decision that is “expected in the next month”. However, it appears the Northern Territory election will proceed in a more-or-less normal fashion on August 22, with the Northern Territory News ($) reporting the local electoral commission does not consider a postal election an option because “postal services were still limited in many remote communities”. It is accordingly “looking to accommodate social distancing at the upcoming election by opening up more early voting centres, encouraging postal voting and extending early voting times”.

• The Greens are in the process of conducting a plebiscite of party members on how it will choose its leaders in future, the three options being the status quo of election by the party room, the “one member one vote” model of a straight ballot of party members, and Labor’s approach of a 50-50 model in which the result is evenly split between the two approaches. The party’s three former leaders, Bob Brown, Christine Milne and Richard Di Natale, jointly wrote a column in The Guardian that beseeched members to reject “one member one vote”, noting the disastrous consequences the model eventually had for the Australian Democrats, and gently suggested the status quo was to be preferred. A counter-argument was subsequently advanced in the same publication by five party luminaries, including current Senator Mehreen Faruqi and former Senator Scott Ludlam.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,719 comments on “Ipsos Issues Monitor and much else”

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  1. Cud

    Yes, turn the rivers back – will create jobs for 20 years to build, and if infrastructure money is no object. Something like the Ord River scheme on steroids

  2. there were some mad proposals to open up a channel from Lake Eyre to the Ocean off S.A. I believe the proponents argued that flooding Lake Eyre with seawater would create more evaporation across inland Australia and therefore more rainfall. And also act as a heat sink lowering temperature inland.

    Personally, sounds like a load of shit to me.

  3. High speed rail and Badgery’s creek are both now at least a decade away, the justification for both of them (crowded airports and roads) have disappeared.

    Electrical charging stations would be far more useful

  5. I see the trumpettes are now comparing themselves to Rosa Parks.
    Where’s the head hitting wall emoji when you need it?

  10. “And look how successful that was!”

    It’s better to do successful things, but that won’t necessarily be the right criteria for awhile.

    Outside of infrastructure though, v what else could the government usefully do to employ people. I’m thinking in the area of services.

  11. Interestingly, WA had it’s highest ever test rate, with 1700 tests. Previous was 1000 tests. I wonder if this reflects the opening up of testing criteria and the involvement now of private test clinics.

    And all that extra testing just resulted in one case, of a person already in isolation after contact with a known case.

  12. Blobbit @ #2560 Sunday, April 19th, 2020 – 6:27 pm

    “And look how successful that was!”

    It’s better to do successful things, but that won’t necessarily be the right criteria for awhile.

    Outside of infrastructure though, v what else could the government usefully do to employ people. I’m thinking in the area of services.

    Painting the Barrier Reef?

  15. The EU parliament presidents vision for their future
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_20_675

    Speech by President von der Leyen at the European Parliament Plenary on the EU coordinated action to combat the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences

    “Honourable Members,

    There are no words that can do justice to Europe’s pain or to all those suffering across the world.

    We think and we pray for all of the families in mourning. And we promise to each other that we will tell their stories and honour their lives and their legacies.

    We will remember them all.

    We will remember Julie, the French teenager with her whole life ahead of her,
    Jan, the veteran Czech historian who always fought for what he believed in,
    and Gino, the Italian doctor who came out of retirement to save lives.

    We will remember the Suzanne’s incredible gesture to leave her ventilator to someone younger than her in Belgium, and the image of Francis who waved goodbye to his brother through a hospital window in Ireland.

    We will remember the new Polish mother who will not see her child grow up and the young Spanish football coach who will never see his dream come true.

    We will remember them all.

    The mothers, the fathers, the sisters and brothers. The young and the old from the north or the south, the east or the west. The friends and the colleagues, the neighbours from nearby and the strangers from far away. Those with stories to tell and places to be. Those whose shoulder we cry on and whose love we rely on.

    Each and every one of those thousands of stories breaks off a little piece of our heart.

    But they also make our resolve that much stronger to ensure that Europe does everything it can to save every life it can.

    Honourable Members,

    You cannot overcome a pandemic of this speed or this scale without the truth. The truth about everything: the numbers, the science, the outlook – but also about our own actions.

    Yes, it is true that no one was really ready for this. It is also true that too many were not there on time when Italy a needed a helping hand at the very beginning.

    And yes, for that, it is right that Europe as a whole offers a heartfelt apology.

    But saying sorry only counts for something if it changes behaviour.

    The truth is that it did not take long before everyone realised that we must protect each other to protect ourselves.

    And the truth is too that Europe has now become the world’s beating heart of solidarity.

    The real Europe is standing up, the one that is there for each other when it is needed the most.

    The one where paramedics from Poland and doctors from Romania save lives in Italy. Where ventilators from Germany provide a lifeline in Spain. Where hospitals in Czechia treat the sick from France. And where patients from Bergamo are flown to clinics in Bonn.

    We have seen medical supplies go from Lithuania to Spain and respirators go from Denmark to Italy. In fact, we have seen every piece of equipment go in every direction across Europe, from whoever can spare it to whoever that needs it.

    This makes me proud to be European.”

    ———————

    “Honourable Members,

    I am convinced that Europe can shape this new world if it works together and rediscovers its pioneering spirit.

    And for this, I want to cite a sentence from the Ventotene Manifesto – written by two of Italy and Europe’s greatest visionaries: Ernesto Rossi and Altiero Spinelli, one of our founding fathers.

    Writing from their prison on a remote island, at the height of the war, when all hope of a united Europe seemed lost, they gave us these words of confidence:

    The moment has arrived in which we must know how to discard old burdens, how to be ready for the new world that is coming, that will be so different from what we have imagined.

    Dear Friends, this moment has arrived once again.

    The moment to put behind us the old divisions, disputes and recriminations. To come out of our entrenched positions.

    The moment to be ready for that new world. To use all the power of our common spirit and the strength of our shared purpose.

    The starting point for this must be making our economies, societies and way of life more sustainable and resilient.

    Finding the answers in this new world will require courage, trust and solidarity.

    And it will need massive investment to jumpstart our economies.

    We need a Marshall Plan for Europe’s recovery and it needs to be put in place immediately.

    There is only one instrument we have that is trusted by all Member States, which is already in place and can deliver quickly. It is transparent and it is time tested as an instrument for cohesion, convergence and investment.

    And that instrument is the European budget.

    The European budget will be the mothership of our recovery.

    And for that reason, the next seven year budget must be different to what we had imagined, just as Spinelli said.

    We will use the power of the whole European budget to leverage the huge amount of investment we need to rebuild the Single Market after Corona.

    We will frontload it so we can power that investment in those crucial first years of recovery.

    Because this crisis is different from any other one we have known. It is severely hitting completely healthy companies because public life has shutdown.

    This is why we will need innovative solutions and more headroom in the MFF to unlock massive public and private investment. This will kick-start our economies and drive our recovery towards a more resilient, green and digital Europe.

    By that, we not only support but we also reshape our industries and services towards a new reality.

    It will mean investing in our digital technologies, infrastructure and in innovation such as 3D printing to help us to be more independent and make the most of new opportunities.

    And it also means doubling down on our growth strategy by investing in the European Green Deal. As the global recovery picks up, global warming will not slow down. First-mover advantage will count double and finding the right projects to invest in will be key.

    A more modern and circular economy will make us less dependent and boost our resilience. This is the lesson we need to learn from this crisis.

    Investing in large scale renovation, renewables, clean transport, sustainable food and nature restoration will be even more important than before. This is not only good for our economies, it is not only good for our environment but it reduces dependency by shortening and diversifying supply chains.”

  16. I was once getting ready to referee a rugby match between Law and Engineering on Sydney Uni 2 in 1993 when I was asked to wander over to Uni one to ref St Johns v St Andrews.

    Professional rivalry to sectarian

  19. Thought this was an amusing opinion on Twitter. Pity the government that had to deal with these sort.

    Part of this thread, the rest of which was interesting on the meaning of the positive test rate

    https://mobile.twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1251691137397645313

    “UN Windmill Sales
    @sales_un
    ·
    2h
    Just wait till we get to Winter, the disease is already circulating but we have been so strict virtutally no one has gained immunity. Sydney and Melbourne will be the new NYC.”

  23. FLASH ALERT!

    ABC TV News now being racist: speculating as to why RAAF C5 cargo plane held up (Specification: “prevent landing with intent to embarrass”) in Vanuatu by a Chinese A320.

    Can we have a scratch PB Green Mafia team assemble at Gate #4 please.

    Note: PPE equipment will not be necessary. Your social conscience will protect you.

    THIS IS NOT A DRILL

  24. Player One @ #2562 Sunday, April 19th, 2020 – 6:32 pm

    Blobbit @ #2560 Sunday, April 19th, 2020 – 6:27 pm

    “And look how successful that was!”

    It’s better to do successful things, but that won’t necessarily be the right criteria for awhile.

    Outside of infrastructure though, v what else could the government usefully do to employ people. I’m thinking in the area of services.

    Painting the Barrier Reef?

    We could corrall the reef area, suck all the water out and then conduct tourist walks.

    Sure the lack of fish is a problem. But, we could arrange dancing Pinatas of tropical fish all along. We could conduct random shark attacks using the profile of guest lawyers from Sydney and the White Shoe Developers from Queensland.

    Could be an enormous cultural success.

  25. “Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:10 pm
    @7:06pm
    Sad and disturbing actually.”

    Isn’t it. These people exist though.

  30. “Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:10 pm
    @7:06pm
    Sad and disturbing actually.”

    Isn’t it. These people exist though.

    It’s not an exceptionally worthy thought to think, and I’m mildly ashamed to express it, but you have to consider whether people who would carry this type of card DO deserve saving, don’t you?

    It’s not like they’re children, or uninformed. They’re adults. And they have Fox News to keep them tuned into reality.

  31. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325271

    More than 60 University of Auckland health academics have written to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern backing the country’s game plan for Covid-19.

    In their affirmation, they wrote: “While we strongly value open scientific debate we, the undersigned academics from the School of Population Health, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, affirm our confidence in the scientific robustness of the elimination strategy taken by the Government with regard to the Covid-19 pandemic.”

    The signatories include high-profile health researchers and scientists such as Professors Boyd Swinburn, Ngaire Kerse, Rod Jackson, Cliona Ni Mhurchu and Alistair Woodward.

    I’m going to save this and trot it out any time someone here says that elimination isn’t supported by experts.

  34. Blobbit
    The federal government still needs to respond to the aged care commission report . I would like to see some effort made to address not only the lack of staff but also the poor standard of training. Maybe a return to linking funding for care to staffing levels and funding services to reduce reduce loneliness and isolation. This would also be applicable to disability care.

    My thoughts on infrastructure are solar on community housing and maybe schools, true nbn and improved buildings for older schools. Maybe even sports facilities for all those projects that missed out last time. Grey water infrastructure could also be an area of interest in some of our drier areas.

    Having said all that I think that the rorters will have their opportunities extended and Morrisons failures will be paid for by all the current essential workers at reduced rates and decreased penalties.

  35. Cuddly, if you stopped bad-mouthing anyone who disagrees with you, and quit publishing curve-fit graphs that predict the date that Microsoft Excel (or similar) reckons we’re going to be virus-free, it would help your credibility.

    If the last election showed us anything, it was that data points,
    curve-fits, statistical modelling, formulas and mathematical modelling mean fuck all when it comes to the Human Factor.

    And customers spitting on retail employees when they’re prevented from entering a supermarket are definitely a Human Factor.

  36. Yes. It almost looked like they were trying to hit the roo Barney.

    I forgot to mention in that post with the Covid 19 medical refusal card that it was a response to the “ar beleeeve it’s re-all but I want mar liberty” types.

  38. NostraBushfire @ #2580 Sunday, April 19th, 2020 – 7:02 pm

    “Cud Chewersays:
    Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:10 pm
    @7:06pm
    Sad and disturbing actually.”

    Isn’t it. These people exist though.

    It’s not an exceptionally worthy thought to think, and I’m mildly ashamed to express it, but you have to consider whether people who would carry this type of card DO deserve saving, don’t you?

    It’s not like they’re children, or uninformed. They’re adults and they have Fox News to keep them tuned into reality.

    I have shameful Darwinian thoughts too, except I am held back thinking of the innocents they harm as well. If it was only MAGAts I would say ferk ewe, go to the end of the hospital line.

  39. BB

    It would help *your* credibility if you actually gave some thought about what I’m saying and attempted to engage.

  40. shellbell:

    Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 6:49 pm

    I do trust, nonetheless, briefs are plentiful for you? In my time, most counsel failed to do a rudimentary examination, even though the instructing solicitor went to pains to do so.

  41. You know not all relevant experts are medicos, public health academics and epidimeologists.

    In fact, the Covid19 strategy could be 100% correct from a health perspective but wrong more generally.

  43. So these protests in the US by those more concerned with their “freedom” to do what they will as they will than other peoples lives??

    Will be interesting if someone manages to collect stats on how many of then get Cv19 infections over the next 10 days or so?? 🙁

  46. A friend of mine, and his wife, both tested positive to c19. Part of a Banyule cluster brought on by a superspreader kitchen hand on the weekend Sir Moron was going to go to the footy. Both had quite different symptoms and outcomes.

    She had a hacking cough temp but recovered after 10 days. He had no cough, recurrent temperature but recovered after 12 days only to relapse thereafter with pneumonia and hospitalisation. Finally out of hospital and recovered.

    He was tested 6 times – 3 times police, 3 times negative whist in fact at all testing times being positive. The tests are not accurate even if done properly (requiring a swab up each nostril) and are often not done properly.

  47. Greensborough Growler:

    Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:08 pm

    Quoll:

    Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 6:43 pm:

    [‘Greens don’t know how to do anything but cut and paste.’]

    Agree. They often post voluminously, without much thought other than their dear leader’s…

  48. My experience of people carrying that kind of card is that they are the first to come blubbering to the ED to get treatment when the shit actually hits the fan. People who have made a profession of railing against the medical syatem are always the most pitifully abject patients (like Foucault when he got HIV).

    I asked a doctor-hating naturopath why she had come in to have her skin cancer treated by me and she said “I don’t actually believe any of that shit I practice.”

  50. I asked a doctor-hating naturopath why she had come in to have her skin cancer treated by me and she said “I don’t actually believe any of that shit I practice.”

    I suppose you aren’t allowed to decline patients.

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