I’ll be taking part in the Political Geekfest videocast through Zoom with Peter Lewis of Essential Research and Katharine Murphy of the Guardian Australia at 1pm AEST today, which you can register for here. The subject of discussion will be this:
• The Guardian reports on another Essential Research poll focusing mostly on coronavirus, which would appear to be a weekly thing at least for the time being. The latest poll finds 59% rating the government’s response as about right, up from 46% last week and 39% in the two previous weekly polls; 13% rating it an overreaction, continuing its downward trajectory from 33% to 18% to 17%; and 29% rating it an underreaction, which bounced around over the first three weeks from 28% to 43% to 37%. Respondents were also asked to rate their state governments’ reactions, though with sample sizes too small to be of that much use at the individual level: the combined responses for very good and quite good were at 56% for New South Wales, 76% for Victoria, 52% for Queensland, 79% for Western Australia and 72% for South Australia. The poll also records a surprisingly high level of general morale, producing an average 6.7 rating on a scale of one to ten, unchanged from May last year. The full report should be published later today. UPDATE: Full report here.
• Also apparently a weekly thing is Roy Morgan’s coronavirus polling, which is being conducted online and not by SMS as I previously assumed – indeed, I believe this is the first online polling Morgan has ever published. Last week’s tranche showed a sharp rise in approval of the government’s handling of the matter from a week previous, with 21% strongly agreeing the government was handling the matter well (up twelve), 44% less strongly agreeing (up ten), 23% disagreeing (down ten) and 6% strongly disagreeing (down ten). Respondents had also become more optimistic since the previous week (59% saying the worst was yet to come, down 26 points, 33% saying the situation would remain the same, up 22 points, and 8% expecting things to improve, up four), and, contra Essential, slightly more inclined to consider the threat was being exaggerated (up five points to 20%, with disagreement down six to 75%). The poll was conducted last weekend from a sample of 987.
Morning all
Much thanks BK for todays bumper edition
PhoenixRed
Rick Wilson’s description of Trumps press conference yesterday was as always to the point.
Who is going to save the US and the world from this horrible person.
And Virginia…
If it comes to pass we’ll see what ‘getting ugly’ really means.
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GOP Rep. Massie Warns US is ‘Weeks Away, Not Months,’ From Food Shortages
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/04/gop-rep-massie-warns-us-weeks-away-not-months-food-shortages/
Today’s feature act at Trump’s presser is a hit job on the WHO. Apparently it’s all their fault, not Don’s, that the US is in a mess.
Murphy’s credibility takes a hit:
Bret Walker SC, given the time frame, will presumably focus on the state decision making.
As well, I assume, he will try and get information out of ABF and Carnival. The latter can be forced to provide information but ABF may resist in the same way as Commonwealth public servants were not allowed to appear at the Murray-Darling Royal Commission at which Bret Walker was counsel assisting.
Wounded by media scrutiny, Trump turned a briefing into a presidential tantrum
President lashed out at reporters, swiped at Biden and refused to accept that he had put a foot wrong in coronavirus response
A toddler threw a self-pitying tantrum on live television on Monday night. Unfortunately he was 73 years old, wearing a long red tie and running the world’s most powerful country.
Donald Trump, starved of campaign rallies, Mar-a-Lago weekends and golf, and goaded by a bombshell newspaper report, couldn’t take it any more. Years of accreted grievance and resentment towards the media came gushing out in a torrent. He ranted, he raved, he melted down and he blew up the internet with one of the most jaw-dropping performances of his presidency.
This was, as he likes to put it, “a 10”.
Trump’s Easter had evidently been ruined by a damning 5,500-word New York Times investigation showing that Trump squandered precious time in January and February as numerous government figures were sounding the alarm about the coronavirus.
The briefing went on for well over two hours. Even Fox News gave up before the end. Adam Schiff, the chair of the House intelligence committee, spoke for many when he tweeted: “Why do reputable news organizations carry these daily Trump press conferences live?
“They are filled with misinformation and propaganda. From the president himself, no less. The country would be far better served and informed if they used highlights later. Enough is enough.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/13/trump-coronavirus-meltdown-media-authority
BK @ #788 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 7:44 am
+1
KayJay actually is a ‘very stable genius’. 🙂
BK
I dont have the energy to watch todays shit show.
I’m quite surprised trump has not yet made mention that China did this deliberately as a bio weapon for war.
@MikeCarlton01
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11m
And again. Yet another economist wanker offering up other people’s lives to appease The Economy God.
Lizzie
As the saying goes.
Opinions are like a@@e holes. Everyone has 0ne.
Bolt is not a journalist. He makes his money by deliberately swimming against the tide.
Victoria says: Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 8:29 am
I’m quite surprised trump has not yet made mention that China did this deliberately as a bio weapon for war.
******************************************************************
White House is ‘heavily considering’ rumors about China creating COVID-19 intentionally for possible biological war
Conspiracy theorists have tried to spin the idea that China intentionally created COVID-19 in a lab, the only purpose of which would be for a biological attack or war.
Defense One editor Kevin Baron reported that Defense Secretary Gen. Mark Milley revealed in a Q&A Tuesday that the DOD has looked into it.
“We’ve had a lot of intelligence take a hard look at that,” he said. “It’s inconclusive, although the weight of evidence leans towards natural. But, we don’t know for certain.”
New York Times White House reporter Maggie Haberman noted that the conspiracy theory is something that has been circulating among the Trump administration.
“Those rumors are being considered heavily within the White House, and in part, officials say, because there are gaps in the information from China,” Haberman tweeted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/white-house-is-heavily-considering-rumors-about-china-creating-covid-19-intentionally-for-possible-biological-war/
Agree with Stephen Duckett’s views on ‘effective elimination’ and when to lift restrictions:
‘State and territory governments should maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are effectively down to zero or close to it. Practically, this could be defined by a threshold of daily new cases below five (on average) for five days.
At this point, the government’s contact tracing systems would be able to contain outbreaks. Broad testing and monitoring would continue, with new cases quickly identified and their contacts quarantined.
Some states – such as South Australia and Western Australia – could hit this threshold in a couple of weeks. Then they could start to slowly lift their restrictions.’
https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/eliminating-the-pestilence-is-the-only-way-to-save-lives-20200414-p54jmk
PhoenixRed
Sweet jebus! I missed that. @facepalm@
The police ‘excuse’ was that they thought he was illegally unloading trash. It seems easy to find excuses for hassling black people. (2 min video)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1249874679084580869
BK @ #803 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 6:20 am
Of course if that were true, everyone would be in the same position as the US.
The International Monetary Fund has slashed its forecasts for global growth in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and warned of a slump in output this year unparalleled since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
In its half-yearly forecasts, the IMF said the “Great Lockdown” would cause a dramatic drop in activity that would be far more painful than the recession that followed the banking meltdown of the late 2000s.
The IMF said the sudden shock caused by the spread of the coronavirus meant it had been forced to tear up an estimate it made just three months ago of 3.3% global growth this year and replace it with an expected contraction of 3%.
Victoria @ #810 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:29 am
They’re probably having to confront the fact that there is already impartial hard evidence out there, one example of which I put up here a couple of weeks ago, that conclusively proves that the virus is naturally occurring and could NOT have been created in a laboratory, American or Chinese.
re dr wombat
Posting here is a matter of priorities – time available, interest in threads, knowledge and amusement return, etc. Some post all day every day. Most it seems come and go, for any and all myriad reasons, or follow the conversations and variably only chip in when motivated. It is also a habit, once broken, easy to let slide.
wombat’s big enough and ugly enough to defend himself, but it was certainly my impression he was driven away – he copped a regular and unfair bashing for trying to help and give his absolutely unique (here) professional knowledge and insights into what was evolving. It takes a lot of time to keep tapping out the level of input he was doing, which is fine and dandy when you have the time, but wears thin when you are sacrificing other things, and getting public flack for your trouble. Many, self included, appreciated his input enormously, giving it the level of respect it deserved, but mostly silently.
He noted in his last posts that he was getting worn down, that he was busy at the coal face, and iirc, the last thing he said was ‘goodbye’. He may just be very busy, and planning a return. I hope so.
Thank you, lizzie for putting up that press release from Dr Jim Chalmers, BEFORE the mundo moaner express got a head of steam up for the day. 🙂
Victoria @ #812 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 6:29 am
He doesn’t need to because his rubes in the Republican party already are!
ItzaDream @ #821 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:43 am
+1
Itzadream
I followed rhwombats posts with interest.
I did get impression that wombat was very busy and stopped posting.
Morning all. Thanks BK for the excellent roundup. There is some real garbage emerging in the financial press about Covid19 and lifting restrictions in advance of medical advice. Looking at the SMH articles, one says do it so as not to leave retirees “hung out to dry” while another says to do it “for the children”. Both claims cannot be true at the same time. In reality both are lies.
As with that appalling example from the AFR Lizzie posted, these guys are not economic analysts either. They are salesmen for investment options – shills.
It occurred to me that they are probably all on hefty commission or “performance bonus” schemes, with most based on valuations at the end of the FY. Normally bonuses are a scam, with “performance” hurdles set so that they will be passed by average performance in an average year. This is not an average year, so most won’t get their bonus. So I suspect a lot will be desperate to get the economy and markets moving again before the end of the FY. So many pathetic liars in that game.
Itza:
One of the reasons I blocked Bushfire Bill some time ago was because of his peddling of weird conspiracy theories about coronavirus and his attacks on mainstream science, including his badgering of rhwombat which was completely OTT and uncalled for.
I too hope rhwombat returns.
Confessions @ #823 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:45 am
Yes, like the cornered rats they are they will ignore the hard evidence that is contrary to their assertions and simply push the propaganda to their gormless Republican base.
C@t
I was very disappointed in Frydenberg yesterday, when he reiterated all the rubbish about how strong the economy was, etc. He’s just a political puppet ( and a very well-off one, too. A bit like Hockey, with a successful wife).
Confessions @ #827 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:48 am
You mean you didn’t see the pearls on toenail fungal treatment?
Shellbell @ #806 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 6:25 am
I thought Walker was the Commissioner?
lizzie @ #829 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:49 am
He’s a very ambitious guy, also like Hockey, and lucky enough to have a better front man as his PM. However, he’s going to have to pull a very big rabbit out of his hat when the 2+ years of grinding unemployment, albeit at better rates than the old Newstart, collides with the balooning ‘Debt and Deficit Disaster’ ( 😉 ) that it will create by the time of the next federal election.
And sidelining parliament isn’t going to cut it forever either.
C@t
” is a ‘very stable genius’. ”
I know you sing the highest praises for KayJay and rightly so.
The example above has an unfortunate Trump-like edge to it as Trump sings his own praises.
Have I missed something?
High Court to rule on warrant AFP used to raid journalist Annika Smethurst’s Canberra home
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/high-court-to-hand-down-decision-in-smethurst-press-freedom-case/12142630
The IMF isn’t helping much at present either, as usual Being more concerned with saving the banks they give money to than saving people. I note this comment from BK:
“ But it does predict a V-shaped rebound of 6.1 per cent next year if the global pandemic peaks in the next three months and social distancing restrictions ease in the second half of this year.?”
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/imf-predicts-deep-recession-v-shaped-rebound-for-australia-20200414-p54jot
How is that going to happen? The global pandemic will only peak globally in the next three months if the richer countries are all sending medical support and $ to poorer countries to help them fight Covid19 as well. Just as Obama did with Ebola. But that isn’t happening.
To really beat this globally we need a global medical effort followed by a global economic restart. That would mean a global ramp-up in the production of testing kits, PPE, ventilators and (when available) vaccines. After that, we would want a globally coordinated economic restart stimulus. We are not seeing either. This highlights the sad lack of leadership at world level. Trump can’t even fix USA, let alone lead the world. The three year recovery timeframe is more realistic.
So you can guess what Virgin frequent flyer points are worth.
Goll @ #833 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:53 am
Yes, the praise of one at the expense of the other. As in, I can tell the difference and KayJay is the real deal. Trump, otoh, would be lucky to be able to spell the words.
Itza:
Thankfully no, but can only imagine the sort of advice that was doled out 😆
Australia has the benefit of watching what other countries do with respect to the reopening of their societies.
And of course, see what actually works.
Morrison and Co have reiterated that going too early can be a recipe for disaster and undoing all the good work done to date.
Scout says:
Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 7:44 am
poroti –
But it is not the Border Forces responsibility to be involved in Health related matters
The mega department was built to stop this bullshit. Multiple fails.
Barney
Correct. I confused his role with Richard Beasley SC
http://justinian.com.au/featurettes/richard-beasley-sc.html
Today is first official day of term 2 here in Victoria.
Will be interesting to see how smoothly or otherwise it goes.
Trump halts funding to WHO over virus.
Speaking of BB’s handy dandy foot remedies…………………
.
Covid 19 coronavirus: Foot lesions could be early sign of infection
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=12324776
Holdenhillbilly
How unsurprisement
Nothing new. I have been saying it for years,
But Trump is a frickin disgrace.
Please – “stable genius” has the ring of part of the pantomime horse – the rear end.
My wife would offer praise from time to time which would leave me wondering “what have I done now ❓ ” – will she next be telling me “we need to talk”.
Oh, the horror of it all. I miss her. 😢
I’m not much of a plumber either dammit.
lizzie @ #829 Wednesday, April 15th, 2020 – 8:49 am
It’s a Lib thing, like the Black Knight in The Holy Grail, they’ll never ever concede anything contrary to whatever it is they’re peddling.
Strong economy, strong economy strong economy…..eventually enough people actually believe it…
Would think similar will happen here………
………………………………………………………………………………………………
‘My child won’t be a lab rat!’ Danish parents threaten to boycott end of school lockdown
……………….But the model has drawn a good deal of criticism.
A Facebook group of parents quickly got over 40,000 supporters with the rubric, “My child won’t be a lab rat!”
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/my-child-won-t-be-a-lab-rat-danish-parents-threaten-to-boycott-end-of-school-lockdown-20200415-p54jvm.html
Trump’s presser today seems like beyond unhingement, judging by what others are saying about it.
I have not watched any of Trump’s pressers but from reporting and comments for three days in a row I have thought Trump has ‘peaked’ . Only to find out the next day I was wRONg.
There’s a reason Pell didn’t take the stand. Why doesn’t someone tell him to shut TF up and just go away. To call the complainant ‘that poor fellow’, to suggest he might have been ‘used’ (which ironically is exactly the essence of the complaint), to rabbit on about the small petty ‘humiliations’ he suffered in jail (as opposed to the gross and degrading humiliations and ruined lives the sufferers at the hands of the clergy on Pell’s watch are living, or dead, with) will do nothing to improve his status in the court of public opinion in my opinion.