Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
Griff @ #1786 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 6:19 pm
The National cabinet has got most things right.
Last Wednesdays legislation should have been broader and Labor should have abstained at the vote but cowered under pressure again unfortunately.
Morrison is responsible for Dutton, who stuffed up the Ruby Princess matter, which caused huge transmission problems, so no Morrison hasn’t got everything right.
Player One @ #1797 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 6:27 pm
I’ll admit Dan got the partner bonking ban wrong. 😆
Rex
I don’t see how the ALP could abstain on a core policy area of jobs when 6 million jobs were tied to the bill passing.
Rex Douglas @ #1802 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 6:29 pm
Not the only thing, apparently.
Sorry again Rex. You used an a posteri argument that if the numbers are down due to the decisions made then, the decision are correct. Based on that logic, the Ruby Princess matter was handled appropriately as the numbers are down?
Actually, without the Ruby Princess, perhaps we would have been more complacent and had greater numbers of community transmission? Human behaviour is a funny thing.
Rex: “I hope envy isn’t the reason some here are whining …?”
Certainly not me: as Boerwar suggested earlier on, having a second house that you need to maintain, clean, etc. seems like a major hassle that I would prefer to avoid.
My beef with Andrews’s decision to allow people to go to their holiday houses was that it seems entirely inconsistent with his declaration (and now extension) of a “state of emergency”, and his frequent public ruminations about the forthcoming need to move to a stage 4 lockdown.
A stage 4 lockdown will see potentially tens of thousands more Victorians losing their jobs and families being prevented from buying takeaway food: one of the few things left that they can treat themselves and their kids with.
Preventing Victorians from going to their holiday houses over Easter would have cost no jobs and would have had a minimal impact on most people. Other state and territory governments – which have been applying the rhetoric about “sacrifice” and states of emergency with a much lighter touch than Andrews’s chest-thumping approach – saw it as a perfectly appropriate thing to do.
As I have posted before, the Andrews Government simply has to make up its mind: is their state in an emergency situation or not?
Blobbit @6:24
Very interesting thanks.
Those graphs are showing effective R down around 0.5 to 0.6 in some cases. At that level, the virus will die out if we simply do nothing but wait.
The whingers here don’t get it.
The isolation rules may be strict, but they are also simple: if you’re out and about, or a stranger in town, you’d better have a good reason.
The aim is to avoid the kind of barrack room lawyering that’s been in evidence on this board most of the day. And to make it simple for the empty-headed and moronic out there.
Give someone an excuse to make an exception of themselves and their situation, and many will do so.
So the prohibition is made plenary, so that even the dumbest among us can understand it: STAY HOME. It’s as near to strict liability as possible, short of the police turning up to weld your front door shut. No smartarses need bother thinking up elaborate excuses or parsing the legal nuances.
The reason they’re going in so hard is because we don’t really know what measure is actually the one that’s working. All we know is that something is.
And before anyone gets all offended at this insult to their intellectual capacities, I remind youse all that EVERYBODY thinks they have above average intelligence and superior moral acuity.
“if we simply do nothing but wait.”
Indeed. The issue though is how long. I don’t know. If it were a month, then great, go for it.
If it’s 60 months of everything we’re doing now, then no.
Both aspects need to be considered. I think we’re getting to the point of soon needing to consider relaxing SOME constraints.
Maybe letting people go to their holiday homes. Yes, and testing more.
Cuddly posted:
The virus won’t die out. It’ll just lie in wait.
That was my reaction, too. 🙁
Scout @ #1791 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:21 pm
Nah, Rex is normally closer to the the federal Government’s talking points.
The virus needs a host. We have seen it last without a host for up to 17 days on the Diamond Princess (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm). But that isn’t long to lie in wait. The key is isolation from the rest of the world i.e. strong borders (now where have I heard that before)?
For those who like that sort of thing,
https://mobile.twitter.com/peripatetical
Is worth a follow
The second house issue is very low on the order of importance
Griff says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 6:46 pm
The virus needs a host. We have seen it last without a host for up to 17 days on the Diamond Princess
_______________
I believe that was segments of the virus. You need the whole virus to have integrity to spread. Apparently small segments can linger but pose no risk.
Griff
Isn’t it amazing that the phrase “we are keeping Australians safe” has suddenly disappeared. Now it’s “we’re all in this together.”
Is this more Vicpol zealous social monitoring or a product of anxious and zealous FB dobbers? Or possibly both.
Going to your holiday house is ok, posting old photos on Facebook gets you a visit and fines?
via Guardian
Coronavirus Australia update: Victorian couple fined $3,300 over year-old holiday snaps
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/coronavirus-australia-update-victorian-couple-fined-3300-over-year-old-holiday-snaps-c-973271
A Victorian couple was fined $1,652 each for breaching coronavirus restrictions after sharing year-old holiday snaps on Facebook.
Jazz Mot said Victoria Police fined her and her husband Garry for being in Lakes Entrance – two hours from their home – after she shared images on social media earlier this month.
But they hadn’t left their home.
“I posted the photos that we took in Lakes Entrance in June last year,” she told 7NEWS.
The Traralgon woman says police then arrived at her home to issue the fine for “going for a drive to Lakes Entrance (non-essential travel)“.
A Victoria Police spokesman told 7NEWS the incident had been reviewed and “the decision has been made to withdraw the infringement notice”.
shellbell and CC: thanks for drawing my attention to John Daley’s latest effort.
Interestingly, he has backed down a fair bit from his earlier preferred endgame scenario of a short, sharp lockdown leading to elimination. He now cites NZ modelling that suggests there is a 50 per cent possibility of elimination after a lockdown of 3 months. His article would have been more interesting if he had then embarked upon an analysis of how sustainable a 3 month total lockdown would be, and whether or not the 50 per cent chance is worth pursuing.
Instead, he then starts talking about his “Goldilocks” approach, which really amounts to keeping the lockdown going as long as you can stand it, even if the case numbers remain low, in the hope that maybe you’ll reach elimination before you feel compelled to lift it.
Which, as shellbell has pointed out, is pretty much the National Cabinet’s current strategy.
So, at the end of the day, this article doesn’t really add much to the debate.
“RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated”
My understanding is that RNA detection doesn’t mean that the virus is necessarily infectious.
“Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.
However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. “This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of ‘dead’ viruses,” Streeck said.”
https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot
“shellbellsays:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 6:48 pm
The second house issue is very low on the order of importance”
Just like jigsaws, but that didn’t stop people going off on one.
Quoll: “Going to your holiday house is ok, posting old photos on Facebook gets you a visit and fines?”
What a mess. Good government requires clear, consistent policies enforced in a way that is both fair and transparent.
I hope that the next stage will involve the National Cabinet doing a bit of a stocktake of all the measures currently in place and trying to assess which ones are making a real difference and which ones aren’t that essential. And then apply and enforce them uniformly across the country (except in areas such as N-W Tasmania where additional controls are required).
Virus Fritters
(I learned this recipe about 50 years ago off my late MIL, country born and bred, and a wonderful woman.)
Ingredients for two.
Three medium size spuds
Two medium size brown onions
Self raising flour
Moroccan spice
salt
olive oil spray
three eggs
white wine
Directions
Wash your hands thoroughly with soap
Pre-heat oven to 220 degrees.
Chop onions and chuck them into the bowl.
Peel and grate the spuds. Squeeze as much moisture as you can from the grated spuds (critical step). Chuck grated and squeezed spuds into the bowl.
Crack three eggs into the bowl.
Add some self raising flour. (The aim is only to use enough flour to hold the fritters together. The less the better, IMO.).
Mix thoroughly.
Put baking paper onto a tray. Spread the mixture into four fritters. I like them a bit flatter than rounder.
Sprinkle salt lightly on the fritters. To taste.
Sprinkle Moroccan spice on the fritters. To taste.
Spray fritters lightly with olive oil spray. This gets them a bit crispy when cooked and it also holds the spice onto the fritters.
Whack the tray into the oven.
Cook for about 30 minutes at 220 degrees. Fan on.
They are cooked when the tips of the shredded spuds turn a bit black but not black black. Stuff that is cooked black black is supposed to be carcinogenic so try to get it just short of black black.
Serve with freshly and finely chopped garden salad, to taste. Finely chopped red cabbage is a good addition to this.
The crisp freshly cut salad/hot spicy fritter balance is nice.
Serve with homemade relish. This is crucial, as is the glass of crisp cool white wine.
Bon appetit!
Re leaving home during the restrictions things are inconsistant and confusing. The NSW instrument is here.
https://gazette.legislation.nsw.gov.au/so/download.w3p?id=Gazette_2020_2020-65.pdf
It does not use the term “essential [travel] ” we have heard used so much lately here and on TV but uses “reasonable excuse” –
“In particular, this Order directs that a person must not, without reasonable excuse, leave the person’s place of residence. Examples of a reasonable excuse include leaving for reasons involving—
(a) obtaining food or other goods and services, or
(b) travelling for the purposes of work or education if the person cannot do it at home, or
(c) exercise, or
(d) medical or caring reasons.””
And boating and fishing is permitted https://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/maritime/covid-19-update.html. There does not appear to be any mention of how far you can travel from home by boat and/or car but you would probably be unwise chancing traveling any more than a few k’s.
“And then apply and enforce them uniformly across the country”
I’m not so sure that’s particularly needed. Different states are going to come out of this at different times. They also have particular circumstances.
For example, in WA with large distances between regional centres and some very vulnerable communities internal border restrictions make a lot of sense. They may not make so much sense elsewhere.
I’m not sure what uniform rules gets us.
Maude Lynne @ #1724 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 5:43 pm
So theoretically they’re fine if they stock up on any needed food, fuel and other consumables locally before they leave, and then keep inside their holiday property while there?
meher baba @ #1817 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:49 pm
Hardly surprising as that was made many weeks ago when the situation was very different.
You really don’t seem to understand that in a rapidly changing environment what might have been appropriate at one time can quickly become not so.
“So theoretically they’re fine if they stock up on any needed food, fuel and other consumables locally before they leave, and then keep inside their holiday property while there?”
Particularly I would have thought if they fly down there in their own helicopter
a r @ #1826 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 6:59 pm
No, they’re not. All that ‘stocking up’ and ‘refueling’ was ‘unnecessary’.
Just. Stay. Home. How difficult can it be???
Cuddly wrote:
Lead story on ABC TV News: sick worker (who probably couldn’t afford to lose her job) stays at work and spreads virus throughout a Western Sydney nursing home. Multiple staff and patients infected.
We’ve seen what can happen with situations like this in Burnie. Now Sydney.
No mathematical function will counter human stupidity, Cud.
“No, they’re not. All that ‘stocking up’ and ‘refueling’ was ‘unnecessary’.
Just. Stay. Home. How difficult can it be???”
I think that was sarcasm from ar, P1.
Thanks Blobbit and nath. Always happy to hear that it is infectious for less time on surfaces. I thought to provide the absolute detection limit to date. Indeed I am with you that it is likely to be transmissible for much less time. I think international trade is unlikely to be a transmission route. And for those overly concerned, a 48-72 hour quarantine on good brought in via air would be ample.
That was me Bushfire Bill. And yes you can model human stupidity 🙂
Griffsays:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 7:13 pm
“I thought to provide the absolute detection limit to date.”
No worries. Not that anything posted here matters a hill of beans, but I know some people like to take the worst possible interpretation.
BW
The kindy teacher got it somewhere else.
Rex:’not everyone who owns a 2nd home is rich.’
You have to be rich to run one house let alone 2. You have to be rich to pay rates, insurance and maintenance on a second house. You have to pay to have the utilities connected, and you have to have another house of furniture. You have to be rich to stock a second pantry when there are plenty of people who can’t stock one.
You are rich if you have a second home, because you can sell It and live on the proceeds for decades.
Poor people can’t do that.
Barney: “You really don’t seem to understand that in a rapidly changing environment what might have been appropriate at one time can quickly become not so.”
Perhaps I don’t. But I also don’t run an “institute” that publishes opinion pieces criticizing what the government is doing.
FWIW
https://www.betootaadvocate.com/headlines/melbourne-elites-hiding-in-portsea-given-away-by-stickers-for-weird-private-school-sports/
There is corollary to the holiday hone argument; residents of seaside towns shouldn’t be allowed to visit the city for non-essential reasons.
We normally go to my parents have use at Victor Harbor over Easter but haven’t. It’s discouraged but not banned in SA. We’re leaving it free for if someone needs to self isolate.
frednk @ #1657 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 4:54 pm
Yep. Almost certainly borers. Longicorn beetle. Plant another wattle.
Here is one on an acacia longifolia.
Unleaded E10 Petrol nearby is 97.8 cents/litre. It is probably cheaper in many other parts of Sydney. Unfortunately I’m not driving further than the nearest supermarket one or twice a week.
“Steve777says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 7:32 pm
Unleaded E10 Petrol nearby is 97.8 cents/litre. ”
Expensive. I’ve seen normal unleaded in Perth for 86c
meher @6:49
That is one of the most incomprehensible misrepresentations I’ve seen you emit.
‘Diogenes says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 7:16 pm
BW
The kindy teacher got it somewhere else.’
Thank you.
meher baba @ #1836 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 5:20 pm
I believe that is satire.
It’s Time @ #1730 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 5:19 pm
The key management facts about this virus are that it has a long prodromal phase when the host is both actively infectious and asymptomatic (up to approx 5-7 days), and that it does not survive long outside the host (max of approx 3 days).
The first is what makes it dangerous and difficult to control, and the second means that internal and international trade in goods can continue more or less unrestricted as long as it includes a 3-4 day quarantine period at an appropriate point in transit. It is only human movement that must be stopped or very tightly controlled, especially across international borders.
Those two facts are what should determine the response to it.
The rest is just details of implementation, or irrelevant.
BB
“The virus needs a host. We have seen it last without a host for up to 17 days on the Diamond Princess”
Griff wrote that. And as others have pointed out, a lot of these late detections are are actually of viral RNA. The weak part of the virus is its lipid coating. When that breaks, you’re left with a lump of twisted up RNA which itself is quite robust.
Player One @ #1829 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 7:06 pm
That seems to vary by state. They had a story on the evening news tonight about a bunch of QLD people issued fines for taking stuff to the dump (“non-essential travel”). Those are all being reversed, and it’s further clarified that visiting literally any business that’s still open counts as “essential” (in QLD).
But don’t even think of driving to the next town to meet your Tinder date (pick a cafe or something instead and hope to “coincidentally” bump into them there instead).
Mid-North Coasf: $1.27 per litre.
Not the cheapest, but it IS paradise here.
Snap, Griff. 🙂