Of plagues and houses

Results finalised on Queensland’s two status quo state by-election results, and COVID-19 question marks over looming elections in New Zealand, the Northern Territory and for two Tasmanian upper house seats.

Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).

I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.

The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.

In other COVID-19 disruption news:

• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.

• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.

• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,986 comments on “Of plagues and houses”

Comments Page 29 of 40
1 28 29 30 40
  1. beguiledagain

    Definitely. In Italy over 100 doctors have died so far and there would be plenty of other health workers on top of that.

  2. Goll says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:23 am

    Perhaps it’s a credit to Labor and Albanese for guiding the crooks in charge through the initial stages of control and remediation of the consequences of Carona because at some stage this mob in charge will be unable to stop themselves.
    __________
    Classic Gollism

  3. poroti @ #1393 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 10:45 am

    Shellbell
    This graph shows cases per 100,000 since the first 100 cases for Singapore, Japan,NZ and Australia. A striking difference is the increase for Singapore and Japan has been a steady straight line upward where as NZ+Aus have had a big ‘bend’ in theirs.
    https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=da100&y=log&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=21,118,165,206

    I think the original praise for Singapore was because of its early slow exponential growth in cases compared to Australia and NZ. But Singapore hasn’t been able to curb that growth and it has overtaken the other two without any sign of improvement yet.

    https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=da100&y=linear&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=21,118,165,206

  4. Victoria says: Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:32 am

    PhoenixRed

    I don’t last more than 5 minutes at a time. I’m no hero

    *************************************************

    I am surprised you still have a TV – thought OH might have thrown one of his steel-capped work boots at TRUMP 🙂

  5. Chrisken says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 8:01 am

    Can anyone shed light on this article forwarded to me by a friend.
    My first instinct was to ignore it but is there a shred of truth?

    https://www.patreon.com/posts/35844091

    There should be a prize for the stupidest link posted on pollbludger, there has been some worthy post. I put this foreword for first prize, and I suspect as an entry for the silliest first post.

  6. Warrnambool City Council has voted to seek the cancellation of the May races. Andrews wants it to go ahead.Surely he wont override the wishes of the local council.
    I wonder if 2 jockeys battling it out on the finishing line in the Grand Annual will be worried about social distancing rules.

  7. frednk says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:02 am


    Chrisken says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 8:01 am

    Can anyone shed light on this article forwarded to me by a friend.
    My first instinct was to ignore it but is there a shred of truth?

    https://www.patreon.com/posts/35844091

    There should be a prize for the stupidest link posted on pollbludger, there has been some worthy posts. I put this foreword for first prize, and I suspect as an entry for the silliest first post.

  8. Fargo61 says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:38 am
    Japan has only one fifth of the detected rate of Covid 19 infection per million population that Australia does, and only half the fatality rate. Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, despite their population densities, are probably still two of the safest places to live right now, along with New Zealand and Australia.

    Taiwan has also done very well. They have a very high population density (24 million on 36,193 km²).
    Six deaths from 388 cases.

  9. citizen @ #1407 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:03 am

    Fargo61 says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:38 am
    Japan has only one fifth of the detected rate of Covid 19 infection per million population that Australia does, and only half the fatality rate. Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, despite their population densities, are probably still two of the safest places to live right now, along with New Zealand and Australia.

    Taiwan has also done very well. They have a very high population density (24 million on 36,193 km²).
    Six deaths from 388 cases.

    I think Taiwan is very sensitive to happenings in China. I think it closed its borders to China very early and used the lessons learnt from SARS1.

  10. Thanks to a health system set up by Labor initially to provide health care universally, completely bastardised by every LNP government and their health ministers since Fraser. All to enable the privatisation and foreign ownership of private hospitals as sinecures for highly unionised specialist doctors to maintain the privileges afforded by such a regulated industry.
    Everyone now forgetting the inability of private hospitals to contribute to Carona remediation without overwhelming government intervention and financial support.
    Everyone forgetting the waiting lists for necessary surgery, renamed elective as it suits.
    Everyone forgetting about the corruptly rorted and heavily subsided health insurance industry.
    Everyone forgetting how the lowest paid health workers have to fight for every cost of living maintainence test applied to their wages.
    Everyone forgetting how the LNP have demonised ths health unions even with the obvious LNP collaboration.
    Morrison and Hunt will attempt to rewrite history to enhance their role in the Corona of 2020.
    The LNP and supporters will galvanize their unfairness and culpability to achieve their ends.
    Its beginning before the virus has had its first anniversary!
    Remember the bushfires anyone? The secrecy with all matters financial?
    Any bonuses for the lowest paid health workers at the virus’ end?

  11. Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    · 21m
    Thanks for all the feedback on our chat with Daniel Wild from @TheIPA this morning. It’s our role at the ABC to accommodate, and test, all viewpoints in Australian society, not just from one side of the spectrum. Thanks for watching! @BreakfastNews @abcnews #yourAbc

    I bet the feedback wasn’t friendly!

  12. Sick of watching breathless death counts, self-congratulations and nothing-but-coronavirus, I’ve been watching JFK assassination interviews. Not conspiracy theories, but of Secret Service agents, and Parkland Hospital surgeons who were right there at the scene of the shooting. and in the trauma room where they brought the President. All old men now, but as sharp as they could be.

    None of them were in any doubt that there was more than one shooter.

  13. I can’t remember who posted and said that he liked Darrel Lee licorice.

    I mentioned the item to my daughter who is working at Darrell Lee locally this morning (slow day) and

    Voila

    and

    EOF. Reading – a novel plan. (Second pun in only two days). 😇

  14. Bushfire

    I don’t think it helps the public to understand or to obey isolation rules when reports are just rows of statistics, and I agree I’m sick of coronavirus themed “news”, as if we’ll all die of boredom inside our locked homes.


  15. KayJay says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:11 am

    lizzie @ #1408 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:09 am

    I don’t think that’s chrisken’s first post. Not saying it’s memorable!

    Useful to know the kind of rubbish that’s going around.

    I did that for a while with blog watch. It just gets too depressing. Such stupidity.

  16. lizzie @ #1412 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    · 21m
    Thanks for all the feedback on our chat with Daniel Wild from @TheIPA this morning. It’s our role at the ABC to accommodate, and test, all viewpoints in Australian society, not just from one side of the spectrum. Thanks for watching! @BreakfastNews @abcnews #yourAbc

    I bet the feedback wasn’t friendly!

    And when does the ABC air something from the other side of the spectrum to IPA?

  17. Good morning and happy Easter to all.

    It will be interesting to see how much longer Australian media will continue with the saturation minute by minute virus coverage and daily “ body” counts before the law of diminishing returns activates and Australians reach the “ I have had a gut full “ stage.

    I have no idea how real world Australians are reacting to the restrictions currently in place but it would not surprise me if they get sick of the wall to wall media rinse and repeat from mostly talking heads well before the actual restrictions.

    But self awareness has never really been a real big trait of the majority of Australian “ journos”.

    Cheers.

  18. Bushfire Bill says:
    Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:12 am

    Sick of watching breathless death counts, self-congratulations and nothing-but-coronavirus, I’ve been watching JFK assassination interviews. Not conspiracy theories, but of Secret Service agents, and Parkland Hospital surgeons who were right there at the scene of the shooting. and in the trauma room where they brought the President. All old men now, but as sharp as they could be.

    None of them were in any doubt that there was more than one shooter.
    _______________________

    The Men who killed Kennedy:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTPAfgwMN4I

  19. lizzie @ #1396 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 10:48 am

    What’s the PB verdict on Virgin Air? My problem is that I don’t trust Micmac’s judgement on anything.

    News Breakfast @BreakfastNews
    · 3h
    Deputy Prime Minister @M_McCormackMP says the federal government is in discussion with Virgin Australia about proving a $1.4 billion loan to keep the airline afloat.

    “I’m not going to rule anything in or out.”

    The need for a two airline system has been the main issue I thought. A Qantas air monopoly isn’t something to relish.

  20. BB
    Paul Peters was professor of urology @ Parklands who found himself in the emergency room as JFK was wheeled in.
    37 years ago he gave a talk about the experience at a conference I attended. The most interesting talk I have ever heard

  21. frednk
    Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:16 am
    Comment #1419

    Useful to know the kind of rubbish that’s going around.

    I did that for a while with blog watch. It just gets too depressing. Such stupidity.

    The time wasted with investigation could prolly be spent usefully elsewhere.

    The particular gentleman RFK Junior has has his head above the parapet previously. Not my kind of guy.

  22. doyley says: Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:18 am

    Good morning and happy Easter to all.

    It will be interesting to see how much longer Australian media will continue with the saturation minute by minute virus coverage and daily “ body” counts before the law of diminishing returns activates and Australians reach the “ I have had a gut full “ stage.

    **************************************************************

    We have only had a few months of such bad news – I often wonder how Aussies coped with 1914-18 and 1939-45 when the limited news/media of those days were filled with daily tragic news of our service personnel …..

  23. Confessions @ #1398 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 8:49 am

    Itza:

    Our health system has certainly been a definite benefit in our case. But I was thinking more of the unified approach to decision-making. Instead of states going about it their own way there’s been a consistent approach taken to lockdowns, with states such as WA even passing laws through its state parliament to support the federal directives. Compare with say the US where individual state responses have been inconsistent, regardless of the chaos they’ve gotten from the Trump administration.

    I disagree.

    Situations from region to region, let alone State to State, differ, so having the States control the response allows flexibility in the approaches taken.

    The only case I see for the federal Government to step in would be if a State was not dealing with the threat or taking it seriously enough.

  24. Bushfire Bill @ #1414 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:12 am

    Sick of watching breathless death counts, self-congratulations and nothing-but-coronavirus, I’ve been watching JFK assassination interviews. Not conspiracy theories, but of Secret Service agents, and Parkland Hospital surgeons who were right there at the scene of the shooting. and in the trauma room where they brought the President. All old men now, but as sharp as they could be.

    None of them were in any doubt that there was more than one shooter.

    We watched The Dam Busters last night.

  25. phoenixRED
    I think there would have been far more “Our boys showing Jerry/Jap what for” type stories than ‘tragedy’ stories.

  26. phoenixRED

    We could listen to radio news once a day. There wasn’t the 24-hour visual flooding then. 🙂

    I’m talking WWII, when I was ticked off for chattering during Churchill’s bulletins.

  27. In contrast, there has been no consistency between States in closing interstate borders.

    Isn’t it just NSW and Vic which haven’t closed borders? That is still remarkable consistency across the country in my view.

  28. Barney:

    Good point, especially if local governments are able to enforce specific rules pertaining to their municipalities. Here we’ve seen councils given the power to enforce movement restrictions for the long weekend, some of which have used those powers.

    I still reckon Australia’s overall response to coronavirus has been solid.

  29. Taylormade,

    March 19. 2020:

    Essential service? Call for Crown casinos and pokie venues to be shut during coronavirus outbreak

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/crown-casinos-and-pokie-venues-should-be-shut-during-coronavirus-outbreak-say-critics

    Casinos should be shut down during the coronavirus crisis, public health specialists and the Victorian opposition have said, with one expert telling Guardian Australia their continued operation were “an unnecessary risk to public health”.

    Crown Melbourne and all other poker machine venues around the country should be closed to slow the coronavirus outbreak, Monash University associate professor Charles Livingstone said.

    The Melbourne and Perth casinos operated by James Packer’s Crown Resorts have exemptions from each state’s health authorities to keep operating.

    ———————–
    Daniel Andrews finally succumbed to the closure of Crown Casino.

    Is horse racing an essential service? Why hasn’t it been shut down?
    ———–

    2 April 2020:

    Fears for animal welfare as first Australian state bans horse and dog racing amid coronavirus crisis

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/02/fears-for-animal-welfare-as-first-australian-state-bans-horse-and-dog-racing-amid-coronavirus-crisis

    Tasmania has banned horse and greyhound racing “effective immediately” in the latest wave of shutdowns intended to stop the spread of the coronavirus, while the racing industry in other states is quietly trying to make arrangements to house thousands of furloughed racehorses should the ban become national.
    :::
    Horse and dog racing has been allowed to continue in Australia, without crowds and with reduced fields. Ireland shut down racing last week, following the United Kingdom. Hong Kong and Japan are still running.

    New South Wales Greens senator Mehreen Faruqi has called on other states to follow Tasmania’s lead, saying it was “absolutely crazy that greyhound and horse racing is continuing in the middle of a global pandemic”.

  30. Regarding licorice.

    I remember when going shopping as a child a bag of licorice was one of the first things to go into the trolley.
    We immediately cracked it open and started eating it.

    It wasn’t uncommon for an empty packet to be handed to the ckeckout girl to be added to the bill. 🙂

  31. It’s Time @ #1420 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:17 am

    lizzie @ #1412 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:11 am

    Michael Rowland
    @mjrowland68
    · 21m
    Thanks for all the feedback on our chat with Daniel Wild from @TheIPA this morning. It’s our role at the ABC to accommodate, and test, all viewpoints in Australian society, not just from one side of the spectrum. Thanks for watching! @BreakfastNews @abcnews #yourAbc

    I bet the feedback wasn’t friendly!

    And when does the ABC air something from the other side of the spectrum to IPA?

    I think they tried it once. But the feedback from the IPA was so bad they stopped.

  32. Good Morning.

    Remember people before the economy.
    That’s the lesson of C19.

    The right wing zealots at the IPA like some at Fox have exposed themselves. They want to profit from death. Your grandma to die for their profit.

    Never ever forget it Labor hammer it home.
    Every day every news conference attack the IPA.

    I know you won’t attack Newscorp for campaigning to end lockdowns for the same reason.
    Even as you should I do understand the political dominance of Newscorp coverage.

  33. Victoria
    “ And yet it is your state that is closing down two hospitals. 1000 people in quarantine and closing most retailers.”

    Yes considering that Tasmania is an island state within an island nation, and does not have much in the way of direct international arrivals, they have not done well. Their per capita infection rate is with NSW the highest while rate of testing is one of the lowest. It should have been the easiest place to control Covid-19 but the state Liberal government left it too late before imposing hard restrictions. Was their cosy relationship with the gambling industry responsible?

    Speaking of which, the Tasmanian Liberal party’s biggest funding buddy is probably taking quite a hit if the addicts cannot visit their gambling dens.

    In fact when you consider the equally slow and error prone Response to Covid-19 in NSW, it seems the safest thing to have during a pandemic is a Labor state government. No, free market ideology will not save you when what you need is a public health system.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

  34. 1 in NSW was mentioned 2 days ago but nil since
    Only 22 ventilated yesterday
    A s**tload of money has been pumped into the system and currently I can see a lot of people getting antsy waiting for the crisis.

  35. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1438 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:34 am

    Regarding licorice.

    I remember when going shopping as a child a bag of licorice was one of the first things to go into the trolley.
    We immediately cracked it open and started eating it.

    It wasn’t uncommon for an empty packet to be handed to the ckeckout girl to be added to the bill. 🙂

    Barney was a very good honest boy.

    What’s happening up there?

  36. Diogenes @ #1435 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:29 am

    Excellent article in Cell on the genomics of coronavirus.
    Looks like bat reservoir (those bats are a serious problem), pangolin intermediate and then human.
    Calls for mammals to be banned from wet markets.
    https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.03.035

    Sorry but it’s not the bats or pangolins that are the problem. It’s the humans and their industrial scale destruction of the environment that seems the culprit and the only real means humans have of changing the situation.

    Plenty of evidence over the years and decades preceding covid19 that it was human destruction of ecological systems and stresses placed upon the natural world that increases the risk of zoonotic diseases and pandemics.

    In some illusionary world it seems some think if we just sterilise the earth of all the things we don’t like, that everything will be fine. Nature is adaptive and dynamic. Life will always find a way to survive in the mess humans leave. Problem is that only the most hardy and adapative will make it through, rats, cockroaches, bugs who we can’t see or control.

    Eradication of all bats seems even more impossible than getting rid of covid19

    One fundamental element of being a living creature on earth is that we are all mortal and have limited life spans.

    Changing Patterns of Emerging Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife, Domestic Animals, and Humans Linked to Biodiversity Loss and Globalization.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29253148

    Abstract
    The fundamental human threats to biodiversity including habitat destruction, globalization, and species loss have led to ecosystem disruptions altering infectious disease transmission patterns, the accumulation of toxic pollutants, and the invasion of alien species and pathogens. To top it all, the profound role of climate change on many ecological processes has affected the inability of many species to adapt to these relatively rapid changes. This special issue, “Zoonotic Disease Ecology: Effects on Humans, Domestic Animals and Wildlife,” explores the complex interactions of emerging infectious diseases across taxa linked to many of these anthropogenic and environmental drivers. Selected emerging zoonoses including RNA viruses, Rift Valley fever, trypanosomiasis, Hanta virus infection, and other vector-borne diseases are discussed in detail. Also, coprophagous beetles are proposed as important vectors in the transmission and maintenance of infectious pathogens. An overview of the impacts of climate change in emerging disease ecology within the context of Brazil as a case study is provided. Animal Care and Use Committee requirements were investigated, concluding that ecology journals have low rates of explicit statements regarding the welfare and wellbeing of wildlife during experimental studies. Most of the solutions to protect biodiversity and predicting and preventing the next epidemic in humans originating from wildlife are oriented towards the developed world and are less useful for biodiverse, low-income economies. We need the development of regional policies to address these issues at the local level.

    DESTRUCTION OF HABITAT AND LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY ARE CREATING THE PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR DISEASES LIKE COVID-19 TO EMERGE
    As habitat and biodiversity loss increase globally, the novel coronavirus outbreak may be just the beginning of mass pandemics
    https://ensia.com/features/covid-19-coronavirus-biodiversity-planetary-health-zoonoses/

  37. ID
    They haven’t used ECMO at the RAH. I think they have used it in NSW. If they had a very young patient who was on maximal ventilation and still deteriorating I think they would try it.

Comments Page 29 of 40
1 28 29 30 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *