Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
beguiledagain
Definitely. In Italy over 100 doctors have died so far and there would be plenty of other health workers on top of that.
Goll says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:23 am
Perhaps it’s a credit to Labor and Albanese for guiding the crooks in charge through the initial stages of control and remediation of the consequences of Carona because at some stage this mob in charge will be unable to stop themselves.
__________
Classic Gollism
poroti @ #1393 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 10:45 am
I think the original praise for Singapore was because of its early slow exponential growth in cases compared to Australia and NZ. But Singapore hasn’t been able to curb that growth and it has overtaken the other two without any sign of improvement yet.
https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=da100&y=linear&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=21,118,165,206
Victoria says: Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:32 am
PhoenixRed
I don’t last more than 5 minutes at a time. I’m no hero
*************************************************
I am surprised you still have a TV – thought OH might have thrown one of his steel-capped work boots at TRUMP 🙂
Chrisken says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 8:01 am
Can anyone shed light on this article forwarded to me by a friend.
My first instinct was to ignore it but is there a shred of truth?
https://www.patreon.com/posts/35844091
There should be a prize for the stupidest link posted on pollbludger, there has been some worthy post. I put this foreword for first prize, and I suspect as an entry for the silliest first post.
Warrnambool City Council has voted to seek the cancellation of the May races. Andrews wants it to go ahead.Surely he wont override the wishes of the local council.
I wonder if 2 jockeys battling it out on the finishing line in the Grand Annual will be worried about social distancing rules.
frednk says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:02 am
Chrisken says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 8:01 am
Can anyone shed light on this article forwarded to me by a friend.
My first instinct was to ignore it but is there a shred of truth?
https://www.patreon.com/posts/35844091
There should be a prize for the stupidest link posted on pollbludger, there has been some worthy posts. I put this foreword for first prize, and I suspect as an entry for the silliest first post.
Taiwan has also done very well. They have a very high population density (24 million on 36,193 km²).
Six deaths from 388 cases.
I don’t think that’s chrisken’s first post. Not saying it’s memorable!
citizen @ #1407 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:03 am
I think Taiwan is very sensitive to happenings in China. I think it closed its borders to China very early and used the lessons learnt from SARS1.
lizzie @ #1408 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:09 am
Useful to know the kind of rubbish that’s going around.
Thanks to a health system set up by Labor initially to provide health care universally, completely bastardised by every LNP government and their health ministers since Fraser. All to enable the privatisation and foreign ownership of private hospitals as sinecures for highly unionised specialist doctors to maintain the privileges afforded by such a regulated industry.
Everyone now forgetting the inability of private hospitals to contribute to Carona remediation without overwhelming government intervention and financial support.
Everyone forgetting the waiting lists for necessary surgery, renamed elective as it suits.
Everyone forgetting about the corruptly rorted and heavily subsided health insurance industry.
Everyone forgetting how the lowest paid health workers have to fight for every cost of living maintainence test applied to their wages.
Everyone forgetting how the LNP have demonised ths health unions even with the obvious LNP collaboration.
Morrison and Hunt will attempt to rewrite history to enhance their role in the Corona of 2020.
The LNP and supporters will galvanize their unfairness and culpability to achieve their ends.
Its beginning before the virus has had its first anniversary!
Remember the bushfires anyone? The secrecy with all matters financial?
Any bonuses for the lowest paid health workers at the virus’ end?
I bet the feedback wasn’t friendly!
Boris definitely didn’t go on ECMO.
Sick of watching breathless death counts, self-congratulations and nothing-but-coronavirus, I’ve been watching JFK assassination interviews. Not conspiracy theories, but of Secret Service agents, and Parkland Hospital surgeons who were right there at the scene of the shooting. and in the trauma room where they brought the President. All old men now, but as sharp as they could be.
None of them were in any doubt that there was more than one shooter.
poroti says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 10:45 am
Shellbell
This graph shows cases per 100,000 since the first 100 cases for Singapore, Japan,NZ and Australia. A striking difference is the increase for Singapore and Japan has been a steady straight line upward where as NZ+Aus have had a big ‘bend’ in theirs.
https://coronavirusgraphs.com/?c=da100&y=log&t=line&f=0&ct=&co=21,118,165,206
Tiawan’s is better.
I can’t remember who posted and said that he liked Darrel Lee licorice.
I mentioned the item to my daughter who is working at Darrell Lee locally this morning (slow day) and
Voila
and
EOF. Reading – a novel plan. (Second pun in only two days). 😇
Bushfire
I don’t think it helps the public to understand or to obey isolation rules when reports are just rows of statistics, and I agree I’m sick of coronavirus themed “news”, as if we’ll all die of boredom inside our locked homes.
Classic Neighthism!
KayJay says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:11 am
lizzie @ #1408 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:09 am
I don’t think that’s chrisken’s first post. Not saying it’s memorable!
Useful to know the kind of rubbish that’s going around.
I did that for a while with blog watch. It just gets too depressing. Such stupidity.
lizzie @ #1412 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:11 am
And when does the ABC air something from the other side of the spectrum to IPA?
Good morning and happy Easter to all.
It will be interesting to see how much longer Australian media will continue with the saturation minute by minute virus coverage and daily “ body” counts before the law of diminishing returns activates and Australians reach the “ I have had a gut full “ stage.
I have no idea how real world Australians are reacting to the restrictions currently in place but it would not surprise me if they get sick of the wall to wall media rinse and repeat from mostly talking heads well before the actual restrictions.
But self awareness has never really been a real big trait of the majority of Australian “ journos”.
Cheers.
frednk
They were very quick off the mark. But they of course have every incentive to keep a veeery close eye on China
.
Fear of China Made Taiwan a Coronavirus Success Story
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/16/taiwan-china-fear-coronavirus-success/
After the insightful posts from Bushfire and Lizzie my last post is a bit redundant.
Cheers and a great day to all.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:12 am
Sick of watching breathless death counts, self-congratulations and nothing-but-coronavirus, I’ve been watching JFK assassination interviews. Not conspiracy theories, but of Secret Service agents, and Parkland Hospital surgeons who were right there at the scene of the shooting. and in the trauma room where they brought the President. All old men now, but as sharp as they could be.
None of them were in any doubt that there was more than one shooter.
_______________________
The Men who killed Kennedy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTPAfgwMN4I
Trump is a vampire that drinks adulation, worship, hatred, fear and other negative emotions. Without his rallies he is nothing without the great unwashed masses to feed off and that I believe is one of the main reasons he wants to reopen the country.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/12/21218336/coronavirus-trump-economy-reopen-social-distancing-end-soon
lizzie @ #1396 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 10:48 am
The need for a two airline system has been the main issue I thought. A Qantas air monopoly isn’t something to relish.
BB
Paul Peters was professor of urology @ Parklands who found himself in the emergency room as JFK was wheeled in.
37 years ago he gave a talk about the experience at a conference I attended. The most interesting talk I have ever heard
frednk
Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:16 am
Comment #1419
The time wasted with investigation could prolly be spent usefully elsewhere.
The particular gentleman RFK Junior has has his head above the parapet previously. Not my kind of guy.
doyley says: Monday, April 13, 2020 at 11:18 am
Good morning and happy Easter to all.
It will be interesting to see how much longer Australian media will continue with the saturation minute by minute virus coverage and daily “ body” counts before the law of diminishing returns activates and Australians reach the “ I have had a gut full “ stage.
**************************************************************
We have only had a few months of such bad news – I often wonder how Aussies coped with 1914-18 and 1939-45 when the limited news/media of those days were filled with daily tragic news of our service personnel …..
Confessions @ #1398 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 8:49 am
I disagree.
Situations from region to region, let alone State to State, differ, so having the States control the response allows flexibility in the approaches taken.
The only case I see for the federal Government to step in would be if a State was not dealing with the threat or taking it seriously enough.
Bushfire Bill @ #1414 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:12 am
We watched The Dam Busters last night.
phoenixRED
I think there would have been far more “Our boys showing Jerry/Jap what for” type stories than ‘tragedy’ stories.
phoenixRED
We could listen to radio news once a day. There wasn’t the 24-hour visual flooding then. 🙂
I’m talking WWII, when I was ticked off for chattering during Churchill’s bulletins.
Isn’t it just NSW and Vic which haven’t closed borders? That is still remarkable consistency across the country in my view.
Excellent article in Cell on the genomics of coronavirus.
Looks like bat reservoir (those bats are a serious problem), pangolin intermediate and then human.
Calls for mammals to be banned from wet markets.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2020.03.035
Barney:
Good point, especially if local governments are able to enforce specific rules pertaining to their municipalities. Here we’ve seen councils given the power to enforce movement restrictions for the long weekend, some of which have used those powers.
I still reckon Australia’s overall response to coronavirus has been solid.
Taylormade,
March 19. 2020:
Essential service? Call for Crown casinos and pokie venues to be shut during coronavirus outbreak
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/crown-casinos-and-pokie-venues-should-be-shut-during-coronavirus-outbreak-say-critics
———————–
Daniel Andrews finally succumbed to the closure of Crown Casino.
Is horse racing an essential service? Why hasn’t it been shut down?
———–
2 April 2020:
Fears for animal welfare as first Australian state bans horse and dog racing amid coronavirus crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/02/fears-for-animal-welfare-as-first-australian-state-bans-horse-and-dog-racing-amid-coronavirus-crisis
Regarding licorice.
I remember when going shopping as a child a bag of licorice was one of the first things to go into the trolley.
We immediately cracked it open and started eating it.
It wasn’t uncommon for an empty packet to be handed to the ckeckout girl to be added to the bill. 🙂
It’s Time @ #1420 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:17 am
I think they tried it once. But the feedback from the IPA was so bad they stopped.
Good Morning.
Remember people before the economy.
That’s the lesson of C19.
The right wing zealots at the IPA like some at Fox have exposed themselves. They want to profit from death. Your grandma to die for their profit.
Never ever forget it Labor hammer it home.
Every day every news conference attack the IPA.
I know you won’t attack Newscorp for campaigning to end lockdowns for the same reason.
Even as you should I do understand the political dominance of Newscorp coverage.
Diogenes @ #1413 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:11 am
He wasn’t even intubated, let alone ECMO’d.
OC, Dio –
Any ECMO statistics?
Coronavirus has sped up changes to global order and sovereignty is making a comeback
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-changes-to-global-order-us-china/12139216
Victoria
“ And yet it is your state that is closing down two hospitals. 1000 people in quarantine and closing most retailers.”
Yes considering that Tasmania is an island state within an island nation, and does not have much in the way of direct international arrivals, they have not done well. Their per capita infection rate is with NSW the highest while rate of testing is one of the lowest. It should have been the easiest place to control Covid-19 but the state Liberal government left it too late before imposing hard restrictions. Was their cosy relationship with the gambling industry responsible?
Speaking of which, the Tasmanian Liberal party’s biggest funding buddy is probably taking quite a hit if the addicts cannot visit their gambling dens.
In fact when you consider the equally slow and error prone Response to Covid-19 in NSW, it seems the safest thing to have during a pandemic is a Labor state government. No, free market ideology will not save you when what you need is a public health system.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704
ItzaDream and Diogenes
So is the “thanks for saving my life. I was on the brink” just a bit of PR?
1 in NSW was mentioned 2 days ago but nil since
Only 22 ventilated yesterday
A s**tload of money has been pumped into the system and currently I can see a lot of people getting antsy waiting for the crisis.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1438 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:34 am
Barney was a very good honest boy.
What’s happening up there?
Diogenes @ #1435 Monday, April 13th, 2020 – 11:29 am
Sorry but it’s not the bats or pangolins that are the problem. It’s the humans and their industrial scale destruction of the environment that seems the culprit and the only real means humans have of changing the situation.
Plenty of evidence over the years and decades preceding covid19 that it was human destruction of ecological systems and stresses placed upon the natural world that increases the risk of zoonotic diseases and pandemics.
In some illusionary world it seems some think if we just sterilise the earth of all the things we don’t like, that everything will be fine. Nature is adaptive and dynamic. Life will always find a way to survive in the mess humans leave. Problem is that only the most hardy and adapative will make it through, rats, cockroaches, bugs who we can’t see or control.
Eradication of all bats seems even more impossible than getting rid of covid19
One fundamental element of being a living creature on earth is that we are all mortal and have limited life spans.
Changing Patterns of Emerging Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife, Domestic Animals, and Humans Linked to Biodiversity Loss and Globalization.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29253148
Abstract
The fundamental human threats to biodiversity including habitat destruction, globalization, and species loss have led to ecosystem disruptions altering infectious disease transmission patterns, the accumulation of toxic pollutants, and the invasion of alien species and pathogens. To top it all, the profound role of climate change on many ecological processes has affected the inability of many species to adapt to these relatively rapid changes. This special issue, “Zoonotic Disease Ecology: Effects on Humans, Domestic Animals and Wildlife,” explores the complex interactions of emerging infectious diseases across taxa linked to many of these anthropogenic and environmental drivers. Selected emerging zoonoses including RNA viruses, Rift Valley fever, trypanosomiasis, Hanta virus infection, and other vector-borne diseases are discussed in detail. Also, coprophagous beetles are proposed as important vectors in the transmission and maintenance of infectious pathogens. An overview of the impacts of climate change in emerging disease ecology within the context of Brazil as a case study is provided. Animal Care and Use Committee requirements were investigated, concluding that ecology journals have low rates of explicit statements regarding the welfare and wellbeing of wildlife during experimental studies. Most of the solutions to protect biodiversity and predicting and preventing the next epidemic in humans originating from wildlife are oriented towards the developed world and are less useful for biodiverse, low-income economies. We need the development of regional policies to address these issues at the local level.
DESTRUCTION OF HABITAT AND LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY ARE CREATING THE PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR DISEASES LIKE COVID-19 TO EMERGE
As habitat and biodiversity loss increase globally, the novel coronavirus outbreak may be just the beginning of mass pandemics
https://ensia.com/features/covid-19-coronavirus-biodiversity-planetary-health-zoonoses/
ID
They haven’t used ECMO at the RAH. I think they have used it in NSW. If they had a very young patient who was on maximal ventilation and still deteriorating I think they would try it.