Counting has concluded for the Currumbin and Bundamba by-elections of a fortnight ago, with Laura Gerber retaining Currumbin for the Liberal National Party by a 1.5% margin against a 1.8% swing to Labor, and Lance McCallum retaining Bundamba for Labor by a 9.6% margin ahead of second-placed One Nation (UPDATE: Make that a 1.2% margin in Currumbin and 9.8% in Bundamba). As noted previously, the flow of Greens preferences to Labor in Currumbin was relatively weak, though not quite decisively so. Deep within the innards of the ECQ’s media feed, it says that Greens preferences were going 1738 to Labor (72.8%) and 651 (27.2%), though this can’t be based on the final figures since the Greens received 2527 rather than 2389 votes. Had Labor received 79.17% of Greens preferences, as they did in the corresponding federal seat of McPherson last May, the margin would have been pared back from 567 (1.5%) to 215 (0.5%).
I have three tables to illustrate the results in light of the highly unusual circumstances of the election, the first of which updates one that appeared in an early post, recording the extent to which voters in the two seats changed their behaviour with respect to how they voted. Election day voting obviously fell dramatically, as voters switched to pre-poll voting and, to only a slightly lesser extent, outright abstention. What was not seen was a dramatic increase in postal voting, which will require investigation given the considerable anecdotal evidence that many who applied for postal votes did not receive their ballots on time — an even more contentious matter in relation to the mess that unfolded in Wisconsin on Tuesday, on which I may have more to say at a later time.
The next two tables divide the votes into four types, polling places, early voting, postal and others, and record the parties’ vote shares and swings compared with 2017, the latter shown in italics. In both Currumbin and Bundamba, Labor achieved their weakest results in swing terms on polling day votes, suggesting Labor voters made the move from election day to pre-poll voting in particularly large numbers, cancelling out what had previously been an advantage to the LNP in pre-poll voting. This is matched by a particularly strong swing against the LNP on pre-polls in Currumbin, but the effect is not discernible in Bundamba, probably because the picture was confused by the party running third and a chunk of its vote being lost to One Nation, who did not contest last time.
In other COVID-19 disruption news:
• The Northern Territory government has rejected calls from what is now the territory’s official opposition, Terry Mills’ Territory Alliance party (UPDATE: Turns out I misheard here – the Country Liberal Party remains the opposition, as Bird of Paradox notes in comments), to postpone the August 22 election. Of the practicalities involved in holding the election under a regime of social distancing rules, which the government insists will be in place for at least six months, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison offers only that “the Electoral Commission is looking at the very important questions of how we make sure that in the environment of COVID-19 that we do this safely”.
• After an initial postponement from May 2 to May 30, the Tasmanian government has further deferred the periodic elections for the Legislative Council seats of Huon and Rosevear, promising only that they will be held by the time the chamber sits on August 25. Three MLCs have written to the Premier requesting that the elections either be held by post or for the terms of the existing members, which will otherwise expire, to be extended through to revised polling date.
• The junior partner in New Zealand’s ruling coalition, Winston Peters of New Zealand First, is calling for the country’s September 19 election to be postponed to November 21, which has also elicited positive noises from the opposition National Party. It might well be thought an element of self-interest is at work here, with Peters wishing to put distance between the election and a donations scandal that has bedeviled his party, and National anticipating a short-term surge in government support amid the coronavirus crisis. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern may be softening in her opposition to the notion, saying earlier this week it would “depend on what alert level we are at”. There has regrettably been no polling of voting intention in New Zealand in two months, although the government recorded enormously encouraging results in a Colmar Brunton poll on handling of the pandemic in New Zealand and eight other countries, conducted last week.
Barney
LOL there is a Flushing.
A reminder.
A place in Flushing Meadows in need of a name change ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flushing_Meadows%E2%80%93Corona_Park
Fess
Singapore released a Bluetooth contact trace app last month and has made the source code available for free
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/04/10/singapore-allows-world-to-access-contact-tracing-app
Apple and Google claim it will take them a few months to develop???
DM @ #54 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:49 am
To develop the ways to lock in the profit stream back to them. 😐
Janet Albrechtsen, Lockdown Buster!
Please!
DM:
Yes I thought I’d read of a contact tracing app already having been developed.
Confessions @ #57 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:51 am
The one by Trump? It’s sitting next to the coronavirus cure and the open for easter sign.
Interesting:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-global-covid-19-cases-surpass-1-6-million-australian-death-toll-stands-at-54-20200410-p54iz8.html#p50a5b
lizzie @ #47 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:42 am
I make no attempt to understand the mind of the person in question – we will hear of his “innocence” from now until worlds end or the “rapture” (although not a Catholic belief) – which ever comes first.
Pending cases may put a dent in the “rubbing salt into the wounds” created by the acquittal and the subsequent “told you so’s” going the rounds.
Enough said. I believe.
Anyone for tennis ❓ Singles of course. 🎾
or perhaps cricket for one – 🏏 perhaps played without a ball and the amazing electronic wizardry could show where a ball at such and such a trajectory and hit as displayed by a batsman (alone on the field) would end up. Strike me lucky fellas. Don’t forget to bet responsibly.
Exciting day for me. Will the Colesworths delivery person attempt to climb over the Green and Yellow bins, past the “No Entry” signs, over the fence and leave my goodies at the back door ❓
Mexicanbeemer @ #48 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:44 am
Yes, always the case isn’t it. I have a surgeon friend who had trained in New York, and when he was hosting American friends in Sydney, they were gob smacked how beautiful it was, and asked to be taken somewhere ‘down market’ – he tried Redfern (gentrification in progress, ‘the block’ nothing but a blink in the eye), and ended up driving them along Parramatta Rd – is this the worst you can do is all they could say. We’ve managed to keep / remove our underclass to beyond common awareness. They needed to see Wilcannia.
Shane Wright quoted by C@t @7:30
The Abbott government set a precedent for increasing taxes in 2014 when it put in place its budget repair levy, a 2 per cent impost on people earning more than $180,000 a year.
The Abbott Government was shamed into doing it when its Budget measures, ostensibly to address the debt overhang of the GFC but in fact to impose the Liberal-IPA-Murdoch ideology on the nation, were to be paid for by lower and middle income earners, letting the well-off scot free while throwing away sources of income their backers didn’t like (mining tax, carbon price, tightening tax rorts…)
We’ll see the same again in spades this time. The Government will say “the private sector has to lead the way” as if they could lead on anything besides how to avoid paying tax. The Coalition and their backer will use it as an excuse to cut cut cut (stuff that dosn’t affect their backers) and sell sell sell (stuff they want to get rid off – Medicare, the ABC…).
Steve777
I agree. There is no way the Morrison gov has the wit or intelligence to bring us out of a recession without more harm.
The poverty in the USA is obscene. It’s what was so relevant about shows like Breaking Bad – what the descent into poverty can do to the middle class (in the show’s case, by no access to decent health care).
I met the acting head of the DEA (Asia Pacific) in a bar in Hanoi, and we soon got onto opioids, and the like. I thought Breaking Bad was lashed with a fair dose of hyperbole. He made it very clear that the production values were well informed – that it was exactly what it is like.
Trump says when to reopen US economy ‘biggest decision’ of presidency
President Donald Trump on Friday said his decision on when to reopen the US economy, shuttered due to the coronavirus pandemic, will be the toughest he has ever taken.
“I’m going to have to make a decision and I only hope to God that it’s the right decision. But I would say without question, it’s the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make,” Trump told a press conference.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/trump-says-when-to-reopen-us-economy-biggest-decision-of-presidency/
lizzie @ #64 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 9:13 am
lizzie, that is far too generous. You suggest it is a ‘lack’ in Morrison. As Steve777 makes the case, it will be an active part of their agenda, as they realign their ideology with the new circumstances, after the current bout of enforced socialism needs (over) correcting.
Steve777 @ #62 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 9:05 am
Notice how Monkey continued claiming Labor was addicted to tax so the punters wouldn’t notice. You gotta hand it to him. He knew Labor would never push back.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/the-poignant-existentialist-remembering-john-prine/news-story/1813145ec75b7727451c568b90cecb33
A really, really good article/obituary. Sadly missed. A great performer – even when stuffing up an intro he was wonderful. 😢
Linda Goes to Mars – John Prine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkBZywwmxms
ItzaDream
I suppose I find it hard to believe that they are deliberately cruel, but you’re correct. They despise the poor. Returning the system to “right way up” will dominate their thinking.
ItzaDream
I spent a bit of time in Frankston which has a reputation for being full of dole bludgers and druggies yet when i look at places in major US cities like parts of Queens it makes Frankston look like Toorak.
That isn’t a comment on the people living in those suburbs but when you look at the American state and its status as a superpower and the richest country in history yet many parts of its major cities wouldn’t look out of place in developing countries.
Australia has its disadvantaged areas but our major cities tend to be more mixed and despite reactionaries efforts we do run better social policies from welfare, health and retirement planning.
Because we can’t let the Plutocrats take over the nation again after the virus has subsided (it will never go away, or be ‘eliminated’), Labor has to keep on their tail. Labor has to do some fast footwork as well and draft into partliament two of the most deadly spokespeople for the cause of the downtrodden and the worker: Sally McManus and Jordan Shanks.
For too long the Liberals and the Nationals have dominated the space tagged, ‘Pretty Boy Man with a Silvery Tongue’, well, it’s time that Labor got with the project and cast about for some of our own. And Sally McManus has the ability to be almost silent but deadly accurate in the way she puts things.
No more waiting in line for your turn with Labor. Get the best and the brightest onto the front line stat!
“Almost 160 Victorian healthcare workers have been infected with coronavirus, a figure which has doubled in a week, prompting the state’s peak medical body to demand an explantation from authorities.”
Also not good at all
Fake noos?
Why the stock market’s ‘very strange’ reaction to the latest news may be as ‘insane’ as it looks
The coronavirus pandemic initially brought week after week of devastating drops in the stock market. But in recent days and weeks, Politico reporters Ben White and Renuka Rasayam noted, stock prices have been improving dramatically — even though the health and economic crisis on the ground seems far from over. They called this development “very strange.”
“In the face of some of the worst economic numbers in American history,” White and Rasayam explain, “cratering energy prices and a freshly dysfunctional Congress, investors are sending stock prices higher. To many, this may seem insane. And it quite possibly is insane.”
“There are several reasons Wall Street is defying the terrible economic news,” White and Rasayam assert. “One is bullish talk from the Trump administration about getting the economy running again in May. Another is a general belief that the efforts by Congress to flood the economy with cash will help ensure that, once the doors finally open again, there will be a massive surge in rehiring and a rapid snapback in economic growth.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/why-the-stock-markets-very-strange-reaction-to-the-latest-news-may-be-as-insane-as-it-looks/
lizzie @ #74 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 7:44 am
Have you got a bad cough?
Better plan for the future with one of our Coffin Coffins.
Diogenes: ““Almost 160 Victorian healthcare workers have been infected with coronavirus, a figure which has doubled in a week, prompting the state’s peak medical body to demand an explantation from authorities.”
Also not good at all”
A big cluster at Burnie hospital as well, and then there is whatever happened at Gosford Hospital (I don’t want to buy back into the arguments about that yesterday).
I assume the infection control measures are insufficient and/or inadequately applied.
I agree, it’s the last thing we need just as we seem to be getting on top of other methods of community transmission.
Fess
I actually got email from my cousin in Italy yesterday to tell me that the lockdown was extended to the 3rd May. They are doing it tough in Italy.
Sigh…….
Vic:
Given the circumstances in Italy an extended lockdown is probably for the best.
Diogenes @ #73 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 9:31 am
Crikey. What’s gone wrong there?
Itza
Maybe they could have gone to The Druitt
Which reminds me to say that the consultant in ECMO at Boris’ St Thomas Hospital (and the head of ECMO in England and Wales) is Nick Barrett, who is a boy from the Druitt
Here’s a different view being expressed that disrupts the Wall Street Paradigm.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1248445281454010368
Is it the one Scrott told us he was building ?
Vote 1 Chamath Palihapitiya .
So, if all around the world there is this big bill to pay for the response to the pandemic, why cannot there be a way just to cancel it all?
Is that beyond human ingenuity?
GG
It takes an insider to understand it and the border point is those big investors should be diversified enough to take losses without being wiped out.
FMD: Exhibit A as to why I have zero respect for Journos:
“ Nicholas Stuart opines that Labor may as well pack its bags and go home.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6714066/labor-may-as-well-pack-its-bags-and-go-home/?cs=14258”
Leaders around the world have had a popularity bounce in opinion polls. That doesn’t mean they are ‘playing a blinder’ as Stuart’s hagiography would have it.
I concede that Moses Morrison has had a massive dollop of political luck that has ‘reset’ his person political fortunes.
That doesn’t change the fact that he’s been four weeks late and billions of dollars short throughout.
Most of Moses’s luck is due to the Premiers – especially the Labor Premiers – shutting down their states and finally – when the penny dropped at the end of his existential crisis – Morrison being prepared to underwrite at least a large slice of the economic costs associated.
What happens next is going to be far more tricky and its a bold position to take to opine that marketing spin and political rat cunning will sustain “the father of the nation” vaudeville routine that Moses has dialled in.
Stuart drew comparisons with Rudd. Rudd was always popular with the public. Even then the political fortunes of his government turned rapidly. In the blink of an eye he was gone.
Far from simply ‘packing up and going home’, in my view Labor’s toil has been beneficial, especially over an electoral cycle. The line that Albo has taken (derided by the likes of Mundo) has seen his recognition factor (always troublesome for a new opposition leader) rise, his satisfaction rating improve and dissatisfaction rating decline: and not just in the last round of polls – the trend has been positive since the bushfires.
Moreover, while the penny hasn’t dropped yet throughout voter land, nearly all the good things that the government have implemented have their origins in Labor ideas. All the potential shortfalls, especially the economic ones – are all owned by the Government.
In the meantime, us Labor activists, and the NSW opposition should keep going hard for obvious weak spots: right now the Ruby Princess is the obvious free kick.
Will Morrison have the wit or wisdom to pull the country out of this mess at the other end. That is unknown, but judging by every single thing that we know about him in his adult life the odds are very slim indeed.
Puffytmd
Debt forgiveness has a very long history…………….
…………………………………………………………………………………….
Mesopotamian societies used interest-bearing loans: the first tablets and records from this period (including the Rosetta Stone) are essentially lists of debts. Early records also show that Mesopotamian scribes knew that debt tends to grow much faster than the economy as a whole, creating inequality and social tensions. According to Hudson: “Babylonian training exercises grasped that herds and production grow in S-curves, tapering off — while debts mount up, ever growing at interest.”
From 2,500BC, the records show that emperors would periodically declare a debt jubilee to restore “economic balance by cancelling agrarian personal debts, liberating bondservants and reversing land forfeitures”. That essentially “wiped the [debt] slates clean………these jubilees created a safety valve: whenever debt exploded to a point that inequality was creating crushing tensions and harming productivity, the emperor would act.
https://www.ft.com/content/dd02e4a8-fda5-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
Victoria @ #79 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 9:56 am
I read the 94 medics have died in Italy and very high infection and mortality in nursing homes.
(repeating what we already know)
Apart from having an elderly population, they were completely unprepared with a weakened public health system subsumed into big private-public partnerships, with ground roots public health outsourced to small local institutions. There was no planning, no strategy, limited testing only for the very sick who presented to hospital (therefore grossly underestimating case numbers), and with limited major hospital capacity overflowing, to free up beds, infected patients were sent out to smaller institutions without proper protections in place.
I’m reposting this, dedicated to the front line health workers. I watch it when I start to lose hope, so often.
(Fly thoughts, on golden wings)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VubAWDQ3gco
poroti @ #85 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 8:12 am
Seconded.
“I’m going to have to make a decision and I only hope to God that it’s the right decision. But I would say without question, it’s the biggest decision I’ve ever had to make,” Trump told a press conference.
————-
How quaint, the USA still maintains the Divine Right of Kings! 🙂
You’ve got to laugh. On FoxNews, Tucker Carlson’s claiming that CNN is nothing much more than an echo chamber for the Democrats, oblivious to the clear fact that the network that employs him thinks Trump can walk on water.
Melbourne weather but not in Melbourne: bright sunshine, 8/8th cloud, dead calm, violent wind gusts, dry, rain, warm, cold.
#WeatheronPB.
Oakeshott Country @ #82 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:01 am
Much too far !! Mind you, Rooty Hill has just opened a major arts venue integrated into the RSL. The SSO have already done a gig there. This lockdown couldn’t have come at a worse time.
From Mt Druitt – likewise at least two of my friends down this part of the world, salt of the earth, honest, very hard working, nothing taken for granted. Where’d Barrett train? Here? It’s as super specialised at it gets, and as I was saying limited I would imagine not by the number of machines, but by the physiology and pharmacology and who and how many can run the damn things days on end.
Mavis @ #93 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:26 am
And also oblivious to the fact that MSNBC is a thing. CNN is relatively neutral; it’s MSNBC that’s the left-wing equivalent of Fox.
Greensborough Growler @ #83 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:02 am
Good exchange. I couldn’t help think of those left to be ‘wiped out’ by Katrina, for example. The poor that is.
Danama Papers @ #91 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 10:23 am
Thirded.
#WeatheronPB. Sunny and windy in Sydney, about 22°.
Good call by the Territory Labor government. There is no reason to put the democratic process on hold. Postal voting works fine, and we have plenty of time to get it organised.
Bit disappointed in Mills over this, and not sure what he thinks there is to be gained by delaying the election.
––––––––––
Rakali @ #92 Saturday, April 11th, 2020 – 9:54 am
Might actually be the most truthful thing Trump has ever said as president.