Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The first Newspoll in three weeks records a coronavirus-related surge in personal support for Scott Morrison, familiar from international experience.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in what has been a dramatic three weeks finds the Coalition restoring its two-party lead, now at 51-49 after being the other way around last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 42%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 5%.

These changes are modest compared to the leaders’ ratings, which, as Kevin Bonham notes in comments, produce the strongest improvements in Newspoll history for a prime minister on both personal ratings and preferred prime minister. Morrison’s approval rating is up 20 to 61%, with disapproval down 18 to 35%, and his preferred prime minister lead has blown out from 42-38 to 53-29. However, Anthony Albanese’s ratings have also improved, up five on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 36%. Eight-six per cent of respondents expressed approval for the JobKeeper scheme with 10% disapproving, with 64% rated the $130 billion expenditure the right amount, compared with 14% for not enough and 16% for too much.

The poll also repeated a suite of questions on coronavirus and the government’s response that featured in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The headline findings are that 84% profess themselves worried (up eight) and 14% confident (down six) about the impact of the virus on the Australian economy; 41% are confident (down six) and 57% worried (up six) about the preparedness of the public health system; 67% are confident (up four) and 32% worried (down three) about information available on how to protect one’s self; 47% are confident (down fourteen) and 33% worried (down fourteen) about the performance of federal and state governments in managing the economic impact; 59% are confident (up eight) and 28% worried (down five) about governments’ preparation of the public health system to cope; and 75% are confident (up ten) and 20% worried (down eight) about governments’ performance in informing Australians how to protect themselves.

Sixty-seven per cent professed themselves worried about catching the virus, 38% about higher government debt, 36% about job loss, 35% about falling superannuation balance, 15% about house prices falling and 7% about none of the above. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday, a subtle shift from its usual field work period of Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

812 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  2. The other thing to remember is many people are still seeing this as a short term issue not helped by the media talking up lifting restrictions. Someone told me that they know a couple that booked a cruise in July. yes a cruise like are people really not getting this yet.

  3. Reuter had article 3 April. Search France Coronavirus for details. 61%jump in figures on day nursing home deaths added.

  4. One of my favourite Einstein quotes..

    “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe!”

  7. Sydney:
    Based on a total site area of 12,367.7 sq km, the current population density of the Greater Sydney area is 407 persons per sq km which includes a number of surrounding national parks. The built urban area is estimated at 4,064 square kilometres which translates to a density of 1,237 persons per square kilometre.

    London:
    The City of London is sometimes referred to as “The Square Mile,” due to the 1.12 square miles (2.9 square kilometers) that the city itself is located on. The Greater London area is much larger, coming to about 606 square miles (1,569 square kilometers). In combination with the estimated 2017 population for the city and the Greater London area, the population density for each comes to about 7,700 residents per square mile in the city and 14,550 residents per square mile in the Greater London area.

    From Wikipedia. I’m too tired to try and convert to square k’s.
    I’m guessing London has a denser population and a more extensive pt network so maybe it’s a bit apples and oranges. Plus the tube is literally a tube with tube shaped single deckers vs double deckers for most part for trains.

    Then again they have more double decker buses.
    Rambling to 😪

  9. I did the maths. You’re comparing 1,237 per sq km in Sydney to 3,000 per sq km in London.
    Plus there would be other factors. Sydney’s population density is more lumpy.

    I was told once that London’s rail usage (I presume this means overground as well as tube) is four times that of the Sydney rail network.

  10. Thanks CC.
    I’ve been to London and it doesn’t seem to take much to fill a tube train which explains the photos in that article. Peak hour as well.
    Surprised about the buses. Most of the buses appear to be deckers and I thought the doors were away from the driver. I guess the drivers could have gotten infected from hard surfaces.

  12. Well I’ve just been accepted to a GWR Facebook group so I’m going to sign off happy.
    Isambard Kingdom Brunel was a fine engineer. Achieved so much.
    Nothing to do with the topic due jour but who cares.
    Night.

  13. Someone posted a link to a youtube video by MedCram. Here’s another: Coronavirus Pandemic Update 49: New Data on COVID-19 vs Other Viral Infections (Ventilator Outcomes) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaIzj3s3p4A (summary, 50% chance of not coming out alive if you end up on a ventilator, but likely worse outcomes if you are obese and male).

    I started reading the comments (I know, always a mistake – except on this site of course). Many of them seem to be promoting hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, zinc and vitamin C, or even hot baths. There are also plenty of people saying that these aren’t recommended by “American Medical” because they’re too cheap.

    I have absolutely no idea if any of these will make a difference. However, when I see people propagating such conspiracy theories I tend to assume anything else they say is likely pretty suspect. If these all worked then I’m sure we would be seeing doctors taking them and not getting sick.

    What is interesting is the way a rumour starts, and within a few weeks it’s an accepted fact with some people. People hear a report that something might work as it appears to kill the virus in a petri dish. When they don’t hear any more, some people seem to think that information about its success is now being suppressed, rather than the more probable reason that it lacks efficacy.

  15. The real issues facing Sooty Morrison haven’t emerged yet. The inquiry into the cruise ships is just one of that this fool will need to face. He is nowhere near the fall out yet. Opinion turns fast. look at what happened after the Queensland floods and then what happened in the state election.

  16. bc that’s quite cheerful. If you end up in critical care, you’ve got a 50/50 chance of ending up dead in a few days time.

  18. It’s kind of consistent though with the American polling, which doesn’t seem to show Trump’s improved approval rating (relatively weak though that has been) translating into better head-to-head ratings against Biden.

  19. Maybe it is like training a dog or a seal.

    The people are giving ScottyFM a treat in the hopes he repeats the trick.

  20. Kill the virus with………..doors ?
    …………………………………………………………………………………..
    Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an adviser to the World Health Organisation’s COVID-19 preparedness group, said the studies were likely to overstate the amount of time the virus could survive in the real world, where smaller amounts were present and the particles would be subject to the wind, UV light and doors opening and closing.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/nsw/one-of-the-most-crucial-aspects-of-containing-covid-19-is-overlooked-20200405-p54h8g.html

  21. Congratulations, Mr. Morrison on winning next week’s federal election.

    Seriously, this is just rallying. When the federal election happens in late 2021/early 2022, the COVID crisis will probably have passed and whatever economic effects come after will be the discussion of the day. Voters won’t care how well he may or may not have steered the ship a year or two ago if their hip pockets are hurting. And, yes, that’s an ‘if’ because nobody knows what will happen over the next year or two.

  23. “We’re tough on stuff” followed by shiny sweeties is _so_ predictable – but coronavirus doesn’t vote.

    Slack off in round two at your peril.

  24. Oh no BoJo:

    On the advice of his doctor, the Prime Minister has been tonight admitted to hospital for tests.

    This is a precautionary step, as the Prime Minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus ten days after testing positive for the virus.

    The Prime Minister thanks NHS staff for all their incredible hard work and urges the public to continue to follow the Government’s advice to stay at home, protect the NHS and save lives.

  25. Ingrid M
    @iMusing
    ·
    3m
    christ. ABC 702 are letting Bernard Keane waffle erroneously about what he thinks Sally McManus said yesterday after clearly stating he didn’t watch what she said yesterday.

  26. poroti @ #120 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 4:50 am

    Kill the virus with………..doors ?
    …………………………………………………………………………………..
    Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, an adviser to the World Health Organisation’s COVID-19 preparedness group, said the studies were likely to overstate the amount of time the virus could survive in the real world, where smaller amounts were present and the particles would be subject to the wind, UV light and doors opening and closing.
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/nsw/one-of-the-most-crucial-aspects-of-containing-covid-19-is-overlooked-20200405-p54h8g.html

    ‘Shake It Off’?

  27. An odd feature of British politics is that the Deputy PM role is optional, and up to the PM to designate one. Due to the disfunction and mistrust in the Conservative Party, there has been no DPM since David Cameron quit in 2015.

  28. Other MB: “The other thing to remember is many people are still seeing this as a short term issue not helped by the media talking up lifting restrictions. Someone told me that they know a couple that booked a cruise in July. yes a cruise like are people really not getting this yet.”

    Jacinda is still clinging to her concept that her stage 4 restrictions will only last for a short time.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/new-zealand-passes-1000-coronavirus-cases-as-pm-chastises-idiots-ignoring-lockdown

    “The more people comply, the more likely we can come out of [lockdown] at the time we’ve said.”

    Thankfully, no Australian politician or commentator, including Norman Swan and John Daley, is still pushing a “go early, go hard, it’ll be over in weeks” line. It’s fascinating how quickly that debate came to an end and ScoMo’s “it’s for six months or more” became the orthodoxy.

    Here’s a great article on the issue of how hard you go and for how long, written by a real expert:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/05/we-need-to-live-restricted-lives-for-at-least-six-months-police-enforced-lockdowns-are-unnecessary

    Collingon’s message: go as hard as you have to, no harder, and be prepared to live with what you’ve done for a long time to come. Forget the news cycle, forget about trying to look tough and in control on the media tonight. Just focus on governing as well as you can.

    We’re very fortunate that all the governments in the Australia have gotten together and are now more or less on this path. Yes, NSW stuffed up with the Ruby Princess. Yes, a Premier occasionally steps out of line and wants to talk tough. But they’re all more or less on the same page at the moment. Which is a great achievement the nine of them get applause from me for that.

  29. There have been all sorts of numbers given about how long the virus remains viable on various surfaces BUT has anyone seen figures for how long it remains viable on your skin ?

  30. A boost in Morrison’s personal ratings is not unexpected. With a population willing the PM to be decisive and initiate action, Morrison and the government have been doing just that. The prospect of free money to assist working families get through this crisis is welcomed by most at this time.

    We are all the sensible left these days.

    Longer term, the Government knows the splurge will have to be paid for and that is where the difficulties for the Government lie. When sectional groups start pleading their special status to justify exemptions from the pain, then juggling a difficult Budget position will likely put a dent in the Government’s popularity as necessary decisions are implemented.

    I expect that major sacred cows like raising the GST, ending tax rorts, removing industry subsidies and even increasing personal and business taxes will be policy changes to be considered. Popularity is ephemeral and being dazzled by personal ratings is a mugs game.

    The TPP are interesting. On the one hand I’m glad a lot of Labor policy is being implemented and Labor stars like Andrews and Mcmanus are playing prominent roles. On the other it is disappointing that Labor is not in the drivers seat.

    Throughout this crisis I’ve tried to remain neutral/generally supportive of the Government’s actions and not resort to the usuaul partisan hysterics. It seems this approach is supported by the broader voting population and maybe a few more of our PB keyboard warriors need to recognise we are all going through difficult times. This is not a “politics as usual” situation.

  31. Mexicanbeemer @ #117 Monday, April 6th, 2020 – 2:35 am

    Bucephalus
    After the last two weeks the Liberals should be closer to 55-45 than 51-49.

    Yes. And it’s telling that Morrison is the only one who has received a bump because he has made it all about him and kept the mistake prone Ministers out of sight and out of mind.

    I also believe that people might have marked the Liberals down and given PHON that, though statistically insignificant but hey it suits my narrative ( 🙂 ) +1 bump because of the initial failure of Morrison to stop people from certain countries with the virus coming to Australia.

    Also the Ruby Princess/Cruise Ship debacle will have dragged their numbers down and probably benefited Labor to the extent that, and who knows if it was in the back of people’s minds, but they may have remembered how quickly Labor acted to shut down the Live Sheep trade and may have believed Labor would have done the isolation of the Cruise Ships better.

    I’m thinking that there may be some people out of work now who reflected back to the time when Labor held the reigns during the GFC and they all kept their jobs.

    Though, who really knows? 😀

  32. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    It has just been reported that Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital for treatment.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/05/boris-johnson-admitted-to-hospital-with-coronavirus
    David Crowe and Rob Harris say that a powerful new committee will monitor the Morrison government’s performance in the coronavirus crisis after weeks of tension over the power of the Parliament to scrutinise sweeping health measures and massive budget outlays.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-committee-to-monitor-government-on-coronavirus-measures-20200405-p54h8j.html
    The AFR’s Andrew Clark tells us why Morrison should add Albanese to the national cabinet.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/why-morrison-should-add-albanese-to-the-national-cabinet-20200402-p54gkh
    Phil Coorey tells us how the scenario now envisaged inside government is one of enabling the country to live with the coronavirus for longer. He says it believes its task from here on in is to try to find a managed rate of growth for the virus while not imperilling public health, and at the same time enabling the economic engines to begin cranking up in six months.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-prepares-nation-to-live-with-the-virus-20200405-p54ha0
    This is an excellent article from the Lowy Institute’s John Edwards wo looks at post-war policies of the past and what Australia might do when this one ends.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6711456/will-we-win-the-war-but-lose-the-peace/?cs=14258
    Don’t be fooled by Morrison’s benevolence – soon it’s back to tax cuts and smaller government says Greg Jericho.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2020/apr/05/dont-be-fooled-by-morrisons-benevolence-soon-its-back-to-tax-cuts-and-smaller-government
    Simon Benson outlines the latest (unsurprising) Newspoll results.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-record-turnaround-for-scott-morrison-and-universal-support-for-wage-subsidy/news-story/4889cd4f8adbe27537299d5b0c769f54
    Shaun Carney wonders if we will let the fear of coronavirus shake us into creating a better society.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/will-we-let-the-fear-of-coronavirus-shake-us-into-creating-a-better-society-20200403-p54gw6.html
    A pissed-off Michael Pascoe says that big business bastardry continues with late payment squeezes.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2020/04/05/coronavirus-big-business-exploitation/
    The government will expand the definition of people who can qualify for the new subsidy of $1500 when they have worked for multiple employers over the past year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/casuals-score-win-in-130-billion-jobkeeper-package-20200405-p54h7d.html
    A leading expert says that with a coronavirus vaccine likely to be at least 12 months away, Australian health workers with immunity could be prioritised to work in intensive care units and higher-risk scenarios.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/very-useful-resource-how-australia-could-utilise-people-with-coronavirus-immunity-20200405-p54h8v.html
    Homicide detectives will lead a criminal investigation into the Ruby Princess, as the passenger death toll climbed to 11.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/many-unanswered-questions-criminal-probe-into-ruby-princess-20200405-p54hah.html
    The pandemic has opened up some fissures in the EU. This article from Bevan Shields does not make for happy reading.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-italy-teeters-eu-wrestles-with-crisis-that-could-tear-it-apart-20200403-p54gzd.html
    Alexandra Smith reports that NSW Rural Fire Service commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons will step down just months after leading the state through the horror bushfire season to head up a new disaster and recovery agency. The 50 year old Fitzsimmons will retire as boss of the fire service this month and, from May 1, will become the first commissioner of a new agency to be known as Resilience NSW.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/rfs-boss-shane-fitzsimmons-to-retire-to-head-up-new-disaster-agency-20200405-p54h8s.html
    Suzie Wilson explains the three reasons why Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus response has been a masterclass in crisis leadership.
    https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership-135541
    Communications Minister Paul Fletcher has written to state and territory governments urging them to exempt telcos, postal services and media organisations from restrictions on movement during the COVID-19 shutdown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/canberra-intervenes-to-urge-free-movement-for-telcos-and-media-20200403-p54gq7.html
    Directors have splashed more than $306 million on shares in their companies during the coronavirus crisis, lifting their stakes despite threats of a major global slowdown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/directors-flip-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars-of-shares-in-market-rout-20200404-p54h3a.html
    The SMH editorial calls for the use of mobile phone tracking technology to assist in stopping the virus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/mobile-phone-tracking-should-be-used-to-stop-virus-20200405-p54h9y.html
    But Lizzie O’Shea says that while there’s an understandable temptation to race to use any method at our disposal to prevent the spread of coronavirus, it should not cost us our democracy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/respect-for-human-rights-must-come-at-the-centre-of-any-technological-drive-to-fight-coronavirus-20200403-p54gtd.html
    The use of controversial technology developed by Clearview AI by Australian police forces raises serious privacy and human rights concerns, writes George Grundy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/australia-involved-with-controversial-tech-company-clearview-ai,13764
    Small investors on the ASX are being ripped off again by Wall Street investment banks, writes shareholder activist Stephen Mayne. This time, it’s a sneaky tweak to the rules governing how companies raise new capital, and right now, there are a lot of companies raising new capital, or dying to …
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/asx-heist-small-shareholders-ripped-by-bankers-in-rash-of-emergency-capital-raisings/
    Jennifer Hewett writes about how nationalism is fighting back hard against the forces of globalisation.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/nationalism-is-fighting-back-hard-against-the-forces-of-globalisation-20200405-p54h9d
    Clancy Yeates writes that a senior Commonwealth Bank executive says businesses can “tread water” for six months if their wages, rent and banking costs were all frozen, as the lender revealed it has already approved $150 million in emergency taxpayer-backed loans.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/businesses-can-tread-water-for-six-months-cba-20200405-p54h5z.html
    One of Victoria’s major regional papers is being produced every Saturday by volunteer staff who believe the news is too important not to publish.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/a-country-newspaper-shut-the-staff-had-different-ideas-20200403-p54gu4
    Amanda Vanstone urges that foreign trade must not be sacrificed in response to the global pandemic.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/foreign-trade-must-not-be-sacrificed-in-response-to-global-pandemic-20200404-p54h19.html
    As the world reels under corona virus and the resulting economic meltdown, another crisis – far more serious – appears to be building: the potential collapse of global food supply chains writes Julian Cribb.
    https://theaimn.com/is-a-food-crisis-the-next-big-hit-for-humanity/
    Sarah Colyer is concerned that the spectre of a police state is becoming as worrying as the virus.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/spectre-of-police-state-is-becoming-as-worrying-as-the-virus-20200405-p54h6x.html
    Chiara Berardi, Marcello Antonini and Professor Francesco Paolucci unpack what went tragically wrong in Italy.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/how-the-coronavirus-crippled-italy,13763
    Nicole Hemmer explains how Trump has in recent days turned the war against COVID-19 into a war against the states, in a desperate effort to shirk responsibility for his pandemic denialism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pitting-the-states-against-the-nation-is-accelerating-the-us-crisis-20200405-p54h8x.html
    The Trump administration is determined to withdraw from a 28-year-old treaty intended to reduce the risk of an accidental war between the west and Russia by allowing reconnaissance flights over each other’s territory.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/05/trump-administration-treaty-war-russia-withdraw
    Donald Trump’s top coronavirus adviser has warned again that there is no scientific evidence to support the use of an unproven anti-malaria drug the president has been pushing as a possible remedy for Covid-19.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/coronavirus-fauci-trump-anti-malaria-drug
    To Donald Trump, coronavirus is just one more chance for a power grab opines Robert Reich. Ouch!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/04/donald-trump-coronavirus-power-grab

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Michael Leunig

    Matt Golding
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/q_86%2Cf_auto/73b59c3ec3ea10a94d81e55210ab9632a15148a8.jph

    Johannes Leak
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/104bec4c2213b4051cb91f382fc0374e?width=1024

    From the US


  33. meher baba
    If you have been following Ardern you will have seen she has repeatedly said it may be longer depending on how the 4 week ‘lock down’ goes. That so many programs were from the start for a 3 + 6 month period kinda tells you that is what has been prepared for.

  35. @SabraLane
    ·
    20m
    The ABC understands the PM, Treasurer and Finance Minister are very firm, and not entertaining a broadening of the definition of ‘casual workers’ – parliament will resume Wednesday to vote on the $130b wage subsidy pkg.

  37. Donald Trump’s top coronavirus adviser has warned again that there is no scientific evidence to support the use of an unproven anti-malaria drug the president has been pushing as a possible remedy for Covid-19.

    But but but but that nice Mr Ghunt told us just 90 hours ago to great fanfare…………….especially in Mordor Media
    ————————————————-
    Coronavirus: Australia to get virus ‘miracle drug’ soon

    Health Minister Greg Hunt has announced he has struck a deal to get a “miracle drug” touted by President Trump into Australia.
    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australia-to-get-virus-wonder-drug-soon/news-story/e617f96559172b572607794e176bbd30

  42. The Coalition supporters are not excited or taking notice of the pro coalition media propaganda poll

    From coalition supporters

    The only poll which will tell if the public is still gullible to the pro coalition media propaganda is on election day

  43. This virus is unfortunately a problem we will have for at least six months and more likely for another 18 months to two years (when hopefully we will have a safe and effective vaccine).

    Our upcoming winter will be our next major test. We need everyone to continue to comply with the rules we put in place mid-March and will likely need to do so until at least September.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/05/we-need-to-live-restricted-lives-for-at-least-six-months-police-enforced-lockdowns-are-unnecessary

    Maybe it’s just me, but with all the social distancing, the lack of public places for people to gather in groups, that everyone who even sneezes or clears their throat at work is being sent home for fear of having cold/flu-like symptoms, plus the number of people working from home, I reckon this year’s flu season will be pretty uneventful.

  46. The eligibility criteria for the wage subsidy needs to be broadened significantly to ensure over one million casuals, including university staff, teachers and some higher education / TAFFE staff are not left out of the package. Work still needs to be done with a significant group of visa holders.

    It also needs to be broadened to cover those in the entertainment industry with singers, musicians etc who work from gig to gig and now have nothing booked for months being left out.

    Any worker who has lost their job as a result of the virus should be included. No exemptions. They have lost their job as a result of government policy ( good and bad ) and the government should not pick and choose which of those they support.

    As it stands the subsidy is flawed.

  47. Confessions says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 7:30 am

    Maybe it’s just me, but with all the social distancing, the lack of public places for people to gather in groups, that everyone who even sneezes or clears their throat at work is being sent home for fear of having cold/flu-like symptoms, plus the number of people working from home, I reckon this year’s flu season will be pretty uneventful.

    ———————————–

    You would think so the social distancing and self isolation would make this years flu season quiet, but will find out whether that will be the case.

  48. Nate Silver on the Corona Virus charts and analysis. I have learnt a new word “Sigmoidal”.

    Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    ·
    20m
    Another issue with charts drawn on a log scale is that they literally compress what has been happening *recently* when the stakes are very high (10s of thousands) while placing a lot of visual emphasis on what the slope was when you were going from say 10 cases or deaths to 100.
    Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    ·
    19m
    The US’s slope has flattened quite a bit in recent days, especially in New York. Not necessarily flattened any more or less than you’d expect. But it has flattened. And it’s quite hard to pick that up from those charts.
    Nate Silver
    @NateSilver538
    To put this in a super dorky way, the shape that an epidemic curve takes is not actually exponential but sigmoidal (S-shaped / it levels off at some point) and putting a sigmoid on a log scale makes it harder to see when you hit the inflection point and start leveling off.

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