Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

The first Newspoll in three weeks records a coronavirus-related surge in personal support for Scott Morrison, familiar from international experience.

Courtesy of The Australian, the first Newspoll in what has been a dramatic three weeks finds the Coalition restoring its two-party lead, now at 51-49 after being the other way around last time. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 42%, Labor down two to 34%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation up one to 5%.

These changes are modest compared to the leaders’ ratings, which, as Kevin Bonham notes in comments, produce the strongest improvements in Newspoll history for a prime minister on both personal ratings and preferred prime minister. Morrison’s approval rating is up 20 to 61%, with disapproval down 18 to 35%, and his preferred prime minister lead has blown out from 42-38 to 53-29. However, Anthony Albanese’s ratings have also improved, up five on approval to 45% and down four on disapproval to 36%. Eight-six per cent of respondents expressed approval for the JobKeeper scheme with 10% disapproving, with 64% rated the $130 billion expenditure the right amount, compared with 14% for not enough and 16% for too much.

The poll also repeated a suite of questions on coronavirus and the government’s response that featured in the last Newspoll three weeks ago. The headline findings are that 84% profess themselves worried (up eight) and 14% confident (down six) about the impact of the virus on the Australian economy; 41% are confident (down six) and 57% worried (up six) about the preparedness of the public health system; 67% are confident (up four) and 32% worried (down three) about information available on how to protect one’s self; 47% are confident (down fourteen) and 33% worried (down fourteen) about the performance of federal and state governments in managing the economic impact; 59% are confident (up eight) and 28% worried (down five) about governments’ preparation of the public health system to cope; and 75% are confident (up ten) and 20% worried (down eight) about governments’ performance in informing Australians how to protect themselves.

Sixty-seven per cent professed themselves worried about catching the virus, 38% about higher government debt, 36% about job loss, 35% about falling superannuation balance, 15% about house prices falling and 7% about none of the above. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday, a subtle shift from its usual field work period of Wednesday to Saturday, from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

812 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 17
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  2. BOB LYNCH

    My medical centre said on Friday that the all singing all dancing flu shot won’t be available until.mid April.
    There is one available now but it does not have the extra immune booster the the other one will have.

    The most important thing would be for over-65s to discuss with their GPs, per the College of GPs statement.

    The one with “extra immune booster” is made by Seqirus (part of CSL) and called FLUAD® Quad.

    OC said it’s available earlier than expected, and here is an announcement from April 2:
    – https://biomelbourne.org/australians-65-and-older-become-first-in-the-world-to-access-fluad-quad/

    The trials have shown safety and non-inferiority (it’s at least as good as the normal one, and might be better)

    There are six flu vaccines available (for different populations etc), see:
    – https://www.aapm.org.au/Portals/1/documents/Latest_News/atagi-advice-on-seasonal-influenza-vaccines-in-2020.pdf?ver=2020-03-05-100227-523

    Note they are all “quadrivalent” (they all work against four flu varieties – two A and two B)

    FLUAD® Quad is “preferred for over 65s” because it contains an “adjuvant” (something that helps the main therapy to work better), which in this case results in more (flu-specific) immune cells being generated, and the relative increase is particularly apparent in people over 65.

  4. Good result for Labor considering every time they have the courage to oppose or criticise the government Cormann trots out and barks at them and they scurry back under their mamma’s skirts. Guess if you don’t have any policies or direction you believe in it is hard to stand up and take others with you.
    Why don’t they remind Cormann he is the failed potato head king maker instead of hiding in the cupboard and accepting his crap.

  5. Morrison has saved his own ass and sprocket sees Albo smashing it.

    Perfect reason why party hacks are the last people to listen to about politics.

  6. [‘However, the preferred prime minister rating has Scott Morrison shooting a remarkable 53-29 lead…’]

    In times of crisis, the incumbent normally takes the lead; but this lead is almost unprecedented. Albanese has the look of old Labor, like Crean. There are two very impressive Labor leaders: Andrews and McGowan. I verily think that Albanese should take one for the team.

  7. I really do not see why this Newspoll would be a surprise to anyone.

    Morrison gets a huge bounce from having his face on national media daily and throwing around billions and billions of dollars and some of it rubs off onto the coalition.

    The voters have put their faith in the incumbent leader and party. Should not be a surprise.

    They like what they see from Albanese as well even when he is not the one handing out the bucks.

    Albanese and labor are not being marked down for their response during this event. Morrison is being rewarded for being in the right place at the right time as PM and the coalition is getting a little bit of that as well for being in government. Should not be a shock to anyone.

    Let us see how it all unfolds over the next weeks and months as billions of dollars in announcements turn into actual reality for the punters.

    A good night to all.

  9. Interesting that Morrison’s record bounce is not reflected in the 2PP which has not moved outside MOE

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (+2) ALP 49 (-2) #auspol

    People still wary of the Liberals shafting them, whilst cheering Morrison loosening the purse strings?

  13. Albo should resign because he is 51-49 behind.Have a word with yourself.The state premiers probably babysat Smoko (the clueless fucker) through all the decisions.

  14. steve david:

    Morrison becomes a socialist and hes the greatest. Albo does socialism,worst fucking policies ever.

    In Mr Morrison’s case, that could be considered an ability think beyond ideology, which if true would be a significant virtue.

    More likely the world has changed (COVID19 is just a proximal trigger, not a cause) and is bending the actors to its arc. It happens every 70-90 years or so. The ability to make progress in a changed world is what matters now, and we shall see how that turns out when the rubber hits the road.

  16. I think this is fine for Labor. The fact that the massive increase in Morrison’s approval has only translated to a 51-49 lead in voting intention indicates that while people may approve of his performance it isn’t really translating into a big change in voting intentions.

    The increase in Albo’s ratings also suggest that this is just a temporary improvement in the government’s standing and not reflective of any negative sentiment towards Labor.

    I think it’s going to cost the government more than the two percentage points they’ve gained in 6 months when they try to wind back all of these measures.

  19. Dan Andrews social media ascendancy doesnt surprise me in the least. Ive been following him for over year and he and his media team absolutely get social media.

    He just connects with Jo ordinary. Nothing fancy, just authentic, daily common sense and humanity. His Facebook posts are par excellence.

  20. Unfortunately, the US COVID19 situation just seems to be getting worse and worse. E.g. Apr 10 projection has worsened from 576K to 590k since yesterday and the last five days have had similar deteriorations.

    It’s important to remember it’s not a spectator sport.

  23. Robodebt to hibernate.
    However I’m buggared if I can figure out how this applies to overpayments:

    But despite the pause, Services Australia quietly issued a notice on Friday that it intends to use Medicare data for a data matching program to include “detecting overpayments and recovering debt”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/03/centrelink-to-stop-issuing-welfare-debt-notices-during-coronavirus-outbreak

    Bloody autocorrected

  24. Now the USS Theodore Roosevelt affair gets murkier and murkier, and the apparent statement from Admiral Mullen (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from October 2007 to September 2011) is probably unprecedented, as are various other aspects.

  25. E. G. Theodore @ #70 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 10:34 pm

    Unfortunately, the US COVID19 situation just seems to be getting worse and worse.

    The U.S. is completely out of control. Doesn’t help that Trump is basically making shit up on the fly, and coercing Federal agencies to endorse (or at least not strongly condemn) whenever nonsense he’s spewing.

    Also, what the hell happened in France? Error in the stats feed, or did they redefine how they count confirmed cases (like China did), or did they really jump from 5k/day to 25k/day?

  26. Not really a surprise but…

    “All we’ve been saying is this pandemic is real, it is global, and this will get pretty bad so prepare and enjoy the show,” read one post to a coronavirus-themed neo-Nazi channel in recent days, between posts baselessly speculating that white people were less prone to contracting it and racist conspiracy theories about its origins.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/us-far-right-seeks-ways-to-exploit-coronavirus-and-cause-social-collapse

  31. Not unsurprising because the stimulus are well targeted but the real test will be in six months. The TPP remains about the same would be a worry to the Liberals because they know the last two weeks was the easy stuff.

  32. Trump just said to a reporter, “do you know much about South Korea? I know South Korea better than anybody… there are 38 million people living in Seoul.” He just said that. What a fuck wit!

  33. “ Morrison has saved his own ass and sprocket sees Albo smashing it.

    Perfect reason why party hacks are the last people to listen to about politics.”

    I would have thought you, of all people, would be on a unity ticket with sprocket about his point on Albo. Starved of media, excluded from the national cabinet and Albo’s net sat has soared. The ‘damage’ to Labor on primaries and 2PP has been minimal.

    Most of Moses Morrison’s new found approval seems to stem from the job seeker package – which has Labor DNA written all over it.

    In the end, I doubt that Moses’s newly found approval will compensate for his incompetence and fraudulence.

    The acid test will be after the pandemic, when the LNP returns to its base instincts of austerity and dividing Australians.

    I reckon Albo is well placed going forward. Well placed indeed.

  34. “ Trump just said to a reporter, “do you know much about South Korea? I know South Korea better than anybody… there are 38 million people living in Seoul.” He just said that. What a fuck wit!”

    Maybe he was confused with Cairo – over 20 million officially reside in the greater metropolitan area … with about that number again unofficially living in the cemeteries and waste dumps …

  35. Nah, she was specifically referencing South Korea to debunk his claim that no one was testing more than America.

  38. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:39 pm
    “ Morrison has saved his own ass and sprocket sees Albo smashing it.
    Perfect reason why party hacks are the last people to listen to about politics.”
    I would have thought you, of all people, would be on a unity ticket with sprocket about his point on Albo. Starved of media, excluded from the national cabinet and Albo’s net sat has soared. The ‘damage’ to Labor on primaries and 2PP has been minimal.
    ___________________________________
    To a degree I am. Albo has not been diminished and his stats are up. Yes the 2pp change is minimal. But Morrison was all but finished after the bushfires. His Net Sat was terrible. Some of his leader attributes were also bad. Trustworthiness in particular.

    I think that maybe this may have become embedded. That Morrison would be irrevocably tarred by his stupid bushfire response. But that seems to not be the case now. So it’s a huge win for Morrison.

  46. Biden has said that should a Medicare for all bill hit his desk, he would veto it. Yet some on here reckon that Sanders is the extremist.

  47. clem attlee
    says:
    Monday, April 6, 2020 at 12:13 am
    Nath, that is greater Seoul.
    ___________________
    Which is around the same size of greater Melbourne.

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