Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

  1. Sanders is staying in the race until he gets some policy concessions from the neo liberal establishment Democrats. Also, he has been out and about making policy re the virus. meanwhile Joe Ohbiden has ben in witness protection. Sanders is the only visible Democrat presence at the moment.

  2. ‘clem attlee says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 7:28 pm

    Sanders is staying in the race until he gets’… Trump back in. Just like he helped Trump last time.
    Sanders is a self-absorbed loser who has no shame. He should just choose one of his three progressive houses and do the right thing by everyone: self-isolate.

  3. Boerwar

    The DNC ‘management will be a prayin’ for Sanders to remain. Blame Bernie is a very convenient diversion from them being unable to find a decent candidate for two elections in a row.

  4. A sign of things to come for easter services I’d say.

    A Kentucky church facing backlash for holding a revival service that helped trigger a significant outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the area says that the criticism from leaders and residents is “unjust.”

    Star of Bethlehem Church in Dawson Springs, Ky., is one of two churches in Hopkins County that many in the state are blaming for an outbreak resulting in more than 50 coronavirus cases and at least four deaths. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) had been pushing for religious institutions to cancel all public gatherings, a move that’s been ignored by churches, like Star of Bethlehem and Life Apostolic Church in Madisonville, Ky., which participated in revivals filled with worshipping, singing and preaching.

    While Beshear did not specifically name Star of Bethlehem at a news conference last week, it is widely believed he was referring to the church, calling it an example of “when people violate the rules and the recommendations that are out there,” reported the Louisville Courier Journal.

    But in a letter sent to local media outlets, attorneys for the church rebuked the idea that the revival services last month were responsible for the surge in covid-19 cases.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/05/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-ZAVHHAF6HZESJL3QMJSIKGUSNQ

  5. frednk:

    [‘sanders is now just a spoiler. He lost, he needs to get over it.’]

    There’s gossip that the governor of New York State, Andrew Cuomo, might be a presidential candidate. I’m not sure how that’d work: perhaps Superdelegates? He certainly has the gift of the gab.

  6. Yeah cause we declare winners before all the votes are in. That is the corrupt establishment Democrat way right Boer? Funny how the right wingers are always calling for concessions from the real left, but never under any circumstances ever make any themselves. There is a word for that it starts with an h and ends in a y.

  7. lizzie @ #2102 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 5:58 pm

    Sally McManus is reserving the right to do battle.

    Christian Porter has ordered unions and Labor not to stand in the way of changes to the Fair Work Act needed to implement the government’s $130 billion wage subsidy, setting up a potential showdown when parliament sits on Wednesday
    @australian
    #auspol

    Labor wedged again.

  8. clem attlee @ #2165 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:47 pm

    Yeah cause we declare winners before all the votes are in. That is corrupt establishment Democrat way right Boer? funny how the right wingers are always calling for concessions from the real left, but never under any circumstances ever make any themselves. There is a word for that it starts with an h and ends in a y.

    The longer he stays in the less he has to ngotiate with. His campaign advisor and senior staff are advising he pulls the pin. So, yeah, he’s got the right to continue. But, what does it achieve?

  9. poroti @ #2157 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:37 pm

    Boerwar

    The DNC ‘management will be a prayin’ for Sanders to remain. Blame Bernie is a very convenient diversion from them being unable to find a decent candidate for two elections in a row.

    You are obviously as far away from America and an understanding of American politics as a person can get.

  10. Boer is a supporter of equal opportunity. He doesn’t believe that being senile should pose as an impediment to running for the presidency. Boer War supports the senile candidate and calls on every one else to get behind him to. Go Ohbiden 2020!

  11. GG, given Ohbiden’s fragile mental state, there is no guarantee that he will even be the candidate in November. Plus, could you see a neo liberal Democrat standing aside for Bernie? Please!!!!

  12. Cranky, I wouldn’t be throwing too many lunar references around if I were you. You know people in glass houses and all.

  13. You can get a sense of why some peeps might be confused enough to support Bernie the Loser continuing to white ant Biden and build up Trump when you understand that they also support the original Attlee who sent the Brit military to Korea while enemy Soviet jets above used the Rolls Royce jet engines thoughtfully provided by… Attlee.

    Same old, same old?

  14. Hey, hey, even GG thinks there is no way that senility will stop Ohbiden. Ohbiden is their pin up boy. GG, Boer and Cranky must be thinking if Ohbiden can do, so can I. To them, he is an inspiration for seniles everywhere.

  15. Aqualung @ #2080 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 5:39 pm

    I hope this cheers people up.

    Say hello to grandbaby aqualung.
    She arrived last night.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Aw! Isn’t she cute!?! Congratulations Aqualung! I hope you play her lots of Jethro Tull as she grows up. 😀

    She will join the sister of my son’s best friend, who had a little boy, Hudson, last week. And then he helped them move house yesterday. Shh! Don’t tell anyone there were 4 of them together at the one time! But only while they were moving back and forth.

  16. Which of his three houses should Sanders self-isolate in during the pandemic while he heroically proclaims himself the ONLY hero of the downtrodden during the pandemic?

  17. Yep the same Attlee that brought in the NHS and lifted up millions of Britains from poverty, who ended Tory imperialism. yes that Attlee, you forgot about that one Mr Grouper Boy. Who was your Labour hero… Morris Iemma?

  18. Greensborough Growler @ #2175 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:57 pm

    clem attlee @ #2172 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:54 pm

    GG, given Ohbiden’s fragile mental state, there is no guarantee that he will even be the candidate in November. Plus, could you see a neo liberal Democrat standing aside for Bernie? Please!!!!

    Here’s a straw. Start clutching!

    Yes, telling how the Alt Right meme du jour about Joe Biden’s apparent mental state inadequacies is used to attack him, supposedly from the Left. clem attlee doesn’t know the meaning of Solidarity.

  19. JUST. GO!! For god’s sake he’s truly an embarrassment now, and even worse just selfish continuing with this vanity project, forcing people to go out and vote when they should be self isolating at home.

    A small group of Bernie Sanders’s top aides and allies — including his campaign manager and his longtime strategist — have encouraged the independent senator from Vermont to consider withdrawing from the presidential race, according to two people with knowledge of the situation.

    The group includes campaign manager Faiz Shakir and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), a top Sanders surrogate and ally, according to the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive private discussions.

    Sanders himself has become more open to the prospect of dropping out, according to one of the people with knowledge of the situation and another close ally, especially if he suffers a significant defeat in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, which polls suggest Joe Biden will win handily.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/some-top-sanders-advisers-urge-him-to-consider-withdrawing/2020/04/04/224d8164-767f-11ea-85cb-8670579b863d_story.html

  20. C@tmomma @ #2191 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:05 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2175 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:57 pm

    clem attlee @ #2172 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 7:54 pm

    GG, given Ohbiden’s fragile mental state, there is no guarantee that he will even be the candidate in November. Plus, could you see a neo liberal Democrat standing aside for Bernie? Please!!!!

    Here’s a straw. Start clutching!

    Yes, telling how the Alt Right meme du jour about Joe Biden’s apparent mental state inadequacies is used to attack him, supposedly from the Left. clem attlee doesn’t know the meaning of Solidarity.

    Churchill said he was a modest man with much to be modest about!

  21. clem
    So you think that Attlee did a wonderful thing killing British soldiers with British jet engines?
    Did Stalin give him a Hero of the Soviet Union badge?
    Fess up, now.
    Don’t hold back. You never do.

  22. Rex – where is the wedge?

    Will Labor side with Sally McManus and demand no changes to the FWA or will they fall into line behind Messiah Morrison …?

    Messiah Morrison? what are you on about?

  23. No not Iemma probably McManus. Get Mac back right Boer. No, no of course it was good ole Bob Santamaria. Yeah what a progressive you are.

  24. Does Biden need to be anything? Surely the election will simply be a referendum on Trump. Anyway I wouldn’t be too worried about Biden being a neoliberal. He’s not especially ideological, just a long time pol and they go with the times.

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