Something for the weekend

Random notes: a WA only poll on coronavirus, some detail on the elections in Queensland last Saturday, and a look at Donald Trump’s counter-intuitive poll bounce.

The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.

Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:

• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.

• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.

• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).

Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.

The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.

It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,303 comments on “Something for the weekend”

  1. Puffy ignore the ignorant comments about Adelaide.

    Cheap shots trying to be clever are not so clever.

    Have experienced for decades re Tassie, used to bite now I am quite happy for those making those comments to stay where they are (no choice right now I realise)

    I’ve spent a lot of time in the last couple of years in Adelaide as I have a close friend there, it is a great place. You are lucky.

  2. Scout @ #2056 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 5:02 pm

    Puffy ignore the ignorant comments about Adelaide.

    Cheap shots trying to be clever are not so. clever.

    Have experienced for decades re Tassie, used to bite now I am quite happy for those making those comments to stay where they are (no choice right now I realise)

    I’ve spent a lot of time in the last couple of years in Adelaide as I have a close friend there, it is a great place. You are lucky.

    Don’t let me start on the the indigent State!

  3. Greensborough Growler says: Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:42 pm

    Here is Hanoi today. Apparently the mountains in the background have been blotted out for years.

    ********************.*************

    When they showed the cricket in the UK – I think Manchester ???

    They used to say ” If you can see the mountains in the background – then its about to rain – if you can’t see them then it is raining ‘

  4. Trump’s most defining qualities have been on display in this fight: He has been mercurial, vindictive, deceptive, narcissistic, blame-shifting and nepotistic.

    At the Thursday briefing, the president brought out another wealthy, uninformed man-child who loves to play boss: Jared Kushner. Where’s our Mideast peace deal, dude? Surely Trump did not think giving Kushner a lead role would inspire confidence. This is the very same adviser who told his father-in-law early on that the virus was being overplayed by the press and also urged him to tout a Google website guiding people to testing sites that turned out to be, um, still under construction.

    Now he is leading a group, mocked within the government as “the Slim Suit crowd,” that is providing one more layer of confusion — and inane consultant argot — to the laggardly, disorganized response.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-trump-jared-kushner.html

  5. Scout @ #2053 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 4:32 pm

    Puffy ignore the ignorant comments about Adelaide.

    Cheap shots trying to be clever are not so clever.

    Have experienced for decades re Tassie, used to bite now I am quite happy for those making those comments to stay where they are (no choice right now I realise)

    I’ve spent a lot of time in the last couple of years in Adelaide as I have a close friend there, it is a great place. You are lucky.

    Yes, I know. We get a good share of Labor governments as well. As you know, most of Adelaide’s charms are hidden and only known by the locals.

    The best bit is that most things are less than an hour’s drive away from anywhere else.

    Having the airport ten minutes from the CBD has to be an amazing advantage. When I fly back in, I appreciate this every time, and also the new modern terminal. It is all so damn easy.

    I have never been to Tassie but intend to rectify that in the future.

  6. So it looks like less than 150 new cases today so down to growth of less than 2.7% which is mostly NSW’s fault.

    The folk of Strahan, by way of example, would be entitled to be pretty frustrated they could not go and enjoy the carvery at the local.

  7. PuffyTMD @ #2063 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 5:12 pm

    Scout @ #2053 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 4:32 pm

    Puffy ignore the ignorant comments about Adelaide.

    Cheap shots trying to be clever are not so clever.

    Have experienced for decades re Tassie, used to bite now I am quite happy for those making those comments to stay where they are (no choice right now I realise)

    I’ve spent a lot of time in the last couple of years in Adelaide as I have a close friend there, it is a great place. You are lucky.

    Yes, I know. We get a good share of Labor governments as well. As you know, most of Adelaide’s charms are hidden and only known by the locals.

    The best bit is that most things are less than an hour’s drive away from anywhere else.

    Having the airport ten minutes from the CBD has to be an amazing advantage. When I fly back in, I appreciate this every time, and also the new modern terminal. It is all so damn easy.

    I have never been to Tassie but intend to rectify that in the future.

    You’ll need to update your passport.

  8. “We’ve got our own time zone, so I’d beg to differ. ”

    Yeah, but you suck up to the rest of the easterns by moving it 30 minutes closer to them

    😉

  9. Puff when things settle – come on down, I’ll show you around. Reckon if things settle I’ll be back in Adelaide at the end of the year.

    GG reckons he needs a passport so he can stay where he is, understand GG is trying to get closer to P1 so that will take care of them.

  10. Scout @ #2069 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 5:22 pm

    Puff when things settle – come on down, I’ll show you around. Reckon if things settle I’ll be back in Adelaide at the end of the year.

    GG reckons he needs a passport so he can stay where he is, understand GG is trying to get closer to P1 so that will take care of them.

    I understand your Premier decalred that Tasmaia is an iland completely surrounded by water. No one is allowed out at the moment.

  11. Simon Katich says:
    Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:44 pm

    Uzbekistan had a legacy of Soviet sporting facilities that would have been close to world class at the end of the Cold War.

    Have you been to Uzbekistan? The have a pretty good metro…. when it isnt falling apart.
    Anyways.. you dont need expensive facilities for some sports.
    ______________________
    So if you reject access to facilities as any excuse what do you suggest as the reason for India’s poor records at Olympic Games?

  12. GG – not often I defend a Liberal Premier but I reckon you are talking BS – another cheap shot out of context, have been impressed with Gutwein to be honest. Personally I work in a field where I facilitated someone heading back to Vic on the Spirit of Tas this week.

    If you asked me 3 months ago if I would ever say that – I would have said no way, but he has done well so far.

    Have no idea where you are and have no reason to have a crack the only government that is up for criticism at this stage is the Coalition. Buck stops with them.

  13. So if you reject access to facilities as any excuse what do you suggest as the reason for India’s poor records at Olympic Games?

    Dodgy vindaloos.

  14. One of my favorite cricketers was Anil Kumble. What a record for someone who could barely get natural spin. He was a conjurer and rightful hustler.

  15. Diogenes “what next” and Bushfire Bill’s earlier challenge:

    Once a state has reached a number of days of zero or very low number of new cases they should gradually loosen the lockdown by allowing certain businesses to restart. Which businesses will be determined by an assessment of risk to benefit.

    The number of new cases needs to exclude returning travelers as they are now under strict isolation in WA (no self isolation). They would need to quarantined for 2-3 weeks and tested prior to release in case they were asymptomatic carriers.

    Each state will have to determine the status of their health system to maintain a large spare capacity especially in ICU.

    Strictly restrict access to the high risk population eg aged care facilities, traditional Aboriginal communities, hospitals until a vaccine is available.

    Ongoing testing of workers that visit high risk areas which would equate to community testing.
    This could apply soon to WA, NT, Tas, SA (once the airport issue is sorted)

  16. A coronial inquiry has to stop if the coroner forms a view that a crime has been committed (more precisely the evidence is capable of satisfying a jury beyond reasonable doubt that a known person has committed an indictable offence, and there is a reasonable prospect that a jury would convict the known person of the indictable offence).

    That can add years to the process.

  17. Anyway you shouldn’t get worked up and jealous about India’s wonderful cricketers. You should acknowledge them.

    Another of my favorite Indian cricketers before I retired from watching cricket was VVS Laxman. What style and panache!

  18. Fourth Bruce: New-Bruce will be teaching political science, Machiavelli, Bentham, Locke, Hobbes, Sutcliffe, Bradman, Lindwall, Miller, Hassett, and Benet.

    Second Bruce: Those are all cricketers!

    Fourth Bruce: Aww, spit!

    Third Bruce: Hails of derisive laughter, Bruce!

  19. Scout, when you come to SA, I will organise a Pollbludger dinner. We have not had one in a couple of years, and celebrating Freedom Day is a good excuse to restart the SA Chapter tradition.

    William, please send my email to Scout.

  20. Dio

    You can have an inquest in NSW simply by the State Coroner directing one to occur.

    Leaving aside the Ruby Princess, the five deaths at Dorothy Henderson nursing home is an obvious subject of inquiry.

  21. My medical centre said on Friday that the all singing all dancing flu shot won’t be available until.mid April.
    There is one available now but it does not have the extra immune booster the the other one will have.

  22. Aqualung
    Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 5:39 pm
    Comment #2079

    I hope this cheers people up.

    Say hello to grandbaby aqualung.
    She arrived last night.

    Hello grandbaby aqualung.

    I am now considerably cheered up- from a quite high base. 👼 (Baby Angel).

  23. Say hello to grandbaby aqualung.
    She arrived last night.

    Ugly little package, isn’t she?

    But then again, even I was regarded as an ugly baby.

    And look how THAT turned out!

    (Ducks)

    Congrats Aqua.

  24. Well shellbell, my son is holding her. I’m not allowed to visit.
    😢

    I can’t really tell who she takes after. She appears to have more hair than me.

  25. My prediction: this will be the biggest fizzer of a flu season in history.

    Likewise for all regular communicable diseases.

    Social Distancing.

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