The West Australian had a Painted Dog Research poll of 500 respondents on attitudes to the coronavirus, with field work dates undisclosed – or at least its website did, as I can’t see any mention of it in the hard copy. What the online report ($) tells us is that 71% believed the federal government should “enforce a full lockdown”; that 25% expected three months of social distancing, and 23% six months; that 18% were extremely worried about losing their job by September, with another 42% slightly worried; and that 68% were most concerned about the health impact, compared with 28% for the economic impact.
Other than that, I have the following to relate about Queensland’s elections on the weekend, which I’ll put here as the dedicated post on the subject doesn’t seem to be doing much business:
• As the dust settles on the troubled counting process, it’s clear the Liberal National Party has enjoyed something of a triumph in the election for Brisbane City Council, extending their 16-year grip on the lord mayoralty and quite probably repeating their feat from 2016 of winning 19 out 26 wards on the council. Incumbent Adrian Schrinner leads Labor’s Pat Condren in the lord mayoral race by a margin of 5.5%, although the latter gained a 4.0% swing off Graham Quirk’s landslide win in 2016. The ABC projection is awarding 17 ward seats to the LNP, to which they look very likely to add Enoggera, while maintaining a slender lead over the Greens in Paddington. The Greens’ combined council ward vote is up 3.4% on 2016 to 17.9%, and they retained their sole existing seat of The Gabba with swings of 12.2% on the primary vote and 8.5% on two-party preferred.
• However, it was a less good performance by the LNP in the two state by-elections, where all the detail is laid out at my results pages for Bundamba and Currumbin. The party finished a distant third behind One Nation in Bundamba, which remains a safe seat for Labor, and have only narrowly held on in Currumbin, where Labor has achieved a rare feat for a governing party in picking up a swing of nearly 2% at a by-election. Party leader Deb Frecklington would nonetheless be relieved by the result, since a defeat in Currumbin, which a pre-election poll suggested was in prospect, would surely have imperilled her leadership, despite her being able to point to the highly unusual circumstances in which the election was held.
• Speaking of which, I offer the following numbers on the ways the enrolled voters of Bundamba and Currumbin did and didn’t vote, with the qualification that there is an indeterminate number of postals still to be counted — perhaps rather a few of them, given I understood that there had been a surge in applications (although it seems a number of applicants never received their ballots).
Finally, a few thoughts on the situation in the United States, elaborating on a subject covered in yesterday’s post here by Adrian Beaumont – you are encouraged to comment on that thread if you have something specific to offer on matters American, and in particular on Donald Trump’s confounding opinion poll bounce over the past few weeks. I sought to put the latter event in context in a paywalled Crikey article on Monday, the key feature of which is the following comparison of his approval rating trend, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, with comparable trend measures of my own for Angela Merkel, Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison.
The upshot is that leaders the world over are enjoying a “rally around the flag” approval bounce, and that Donald Trump’s looks meagre indeed compared with his colleagues across the Atlantic. I feel pretty sure that the lack of a clear bounce for Scott Morrison is down to the fact that there have been no new numbers since Essential Research’s poll of over a fortnight ago, with the surges for Merkel, Johnson and Macron being concentrated since that time.
It’s also interesting to observe that Trump’s improvement has not been consistently observed. The chart below records his trends so far from this year from the five most prolific pollsters. For some reason, Rasmussen, the pollster that is usually most favourable to him — and which is accordingly the most frequent subject of his vainglorious tweets on the odd occasion when it reaches 50% — has in fact found his approval rating going in the direction he deserves. There is also no sign of change from the Ipsos series. However, the improving trend from the other three is more in line with the many other pollsters included in the FiveThirtyEight series, hence its overall picture of his best ratings since his post-election honeymoon.
Does anyone have any research linking Covid and hypertension ? And are they linking the ACE/ARB inhibitors to the reason?
Many people take Micardis and that drug is in this group so am keen to clarify this.
TPOF @ #1794 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 10:58 am
Overexposing oneself to any single category of investment has never been a sound strategy. No matter how rigged in your favor the tax concessions make it.
Re the Van der Valk show, which I missed last night (I couldn’t tear myself away from Ken Burns’s Country Music on SBS, which last night focused on Waylon, Dolly, Emmylou and Hank Jnr. It’s a wonderful show, even if you don’t share my passion for the genre.)
Anyway, perhaps the show doesn’t ring entirely true to people of Dutch origin because it is based on a series of novels by an Englishman named Nicholas Freeling, who I think visited Holland quite often, but never actually resided there and possibly didn’t even speak any Dutch.
My recollection is that the novels were originally published by Gollancz in their wonderful yellow covered hardbacks that once abounded on the shelves of my local library. I enjoyed them a lot. They were in the style of Simenon’s Maigret novels and, later on, the Henning Mankell’s Wallander novels, in that their focus was not entirely on the forensic process of tracking down the crimes, but also on the emotions and personal life of the detective. I hope that the advent of a new TV adaptation will bring the books back into print, as I really enjoyed those that I read.
Meanwhile in Athens we have cleaners the disinfecting of a Statue of Pericles who died from the plague in 429BC.
380 community acquired in NSW up 15 from yesterday
OC: “87 in NSW today
39 in ICU
23 on ventilators”
It would be very interesting to know how many of those who have been in ICU/on ventilators have recovered and been discharged.
Also whether the 87 new cases include any of the 100 odd in quarantine experiencing symptoms who we were told about yesterday, or whether their results won’t come through for another 24 hours or so.
All this stuff might have been reported somewhere, but I can’t find it.
I’m not sure I can get to excited by a mass of transmission due to people sneaking out without their mobile phones.
There’s lower hanging fruit to be worried about. But if it makes everyone feel better to have a rant about them…
C@t, ‘ Just do it as soon as you get home again! ‘
I don’t think that is enough. You have gotten in the car, touched the car door handle, keys, gear stick, steering wheel, front door key and knob, faucet and soap dispenser before washing your hands.
All these items can re-infect your hand/fingers subsequently the corona virus can invade your body via touching your eyes, mouth and nose with the re-contaminated hand/fingers.
Would you drive home with wet paint on your hands?
There were 4 deaths in NSW yesterday – all in the older age groups
Not sure if this has been shared:
https://twitter.com/camerondickqld/status/1246574165529747456
Following through to the company’s facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/evolvegrp
“First email contact regarding face masks was last Tuesday. By Friday we had sourced an entire supply chain and we purchased two fully automatic production lines. The following Wednesday we had developed a test method and benchmarking process with various universities and will be in production in under four weeks from start to finish.”
Just.Awesome.
Chrisken
Sorry, I have no links, but definitely remember reading that high BP is one of the high-grade disadvantages if I get Covid (and I take Micardis).
I would seriously like to know more about the medical status of those who have died. More details might comfort some (or not).
GG:
Very good!! 😆
I was very disappointed watching Van der Valk last night as soon as he opened his mouth. A pommie accent, I was expecting Dutch accented English.
Can’t beat that guttural pronunciation and turn of phase native Dutch speakers use when speaking English.
meher baba says:
Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:10 am
Re the Van der Valk show, which I missed last night (I couldn’t tear myself away from Ken Burns’s Country Music on SBS, which last night focused on Waylon, Dolly, Emmylou and Hank Jnr. It’s a wonderful show, even if you don’t share my passion for the genre.)
Anyway, perhaps the show doesn’t ring entirely true to people of Dutch origin because it is based on a series of novels by an Englishman named Nicholas Freeling, who I think visited Holland quite often, but never actually resided there and possibly didn’t even speak any Dutch.
My recollection is that the novels were originally published by Gollancz in their wonderful yellow covered hardbacks that once abounded on the shelves of my local library. I enjoyed them a lot. They were in the style of Simenon’s Maigret novels and, later on, the Henning Mankell’s Wallander novels, in that their focus was not entirely on the forensic process of tracking down the crimes, but also on the emotions and personal life of the detective. I hope that the advent of a new TV adaptation will bring the books back into print, as I really enjoyed those that I read.
____________________________________
1. I’m no fan of the country music genre but the episodes I’ve seen have been fascinating for their social history and how they explain the origins and love for that music. I need to catch up on the episodes I missed. Thoroughly recommended to anyone who has ever like Ken Burns’s social documentaries.
2. I saw Van Der Valk and thoroughly enjoyed it as a crime genre offering. A few great shots of Amsterdam, but otherwise not really Dutch at all. For example, nobody smoked weed in an Amsterdam coffee shop.
meher baba
Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:10 am
Comment #1778
Yep, yep as my favourite Post Office delivery lady says.
Thanks for the reminder. I recorded the Ken Burns’s Country Music on SBS programs from last night and I do share your passion for the genre.
Hand me that old cigar box Muriel. 🎸
In SA I can still go out and play golf with mates. Take some beers.
The way we play, we are completed isolated from each other for the vast majority of the outing.
Anyone watching Tiger King on Netflix?
Simon Katich @ #1811 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:21 am
Apparently, you can’t play gold in Florida because of the virus. It might send Trump broke!
C@tmomma @ #1791 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 10:51 am
Wrong again, C@t. Did you not realize the mistake you made yesterday? It was BB who wrote the comment you got so offended by – not me.
I really don’t understand why sitting alone in one’s own car is forbidden. Or out driving alone, too. Isn’t that being isolated?
Petrol stations should all have sanitizers available.
However you should have your own in the car. Along with disinfectant for door handles etc.
When travelling for avoiding the virus your car is an extension of your house.
A useful update of the progress of the Virus from insiders this morning.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246575179112656896
Greensborough Growler @ #1783 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 8:33 am
With NewsCorps position in the print media it would be pretty hard for a journalist to avoid having worked for one of their publications at some time.
lizzie : “That seemed a very dull Insiders. Is it just me?”
Very dull. Crowe has always been dull and ponderous and Benson doesn’t come across as being overly bright (if we have to have a token right-winger from time to time, please bring back Gerard). Karvelas was good, as always IMO.
It might surprise some of you to know that I’m something of a fan of Sally McManus, because she impresses me as clearly knowing her stuff. But even her friends and family would surely agree that her completely monotone delivery makes her a very soporific interviewee. The most interesting part of the interview was near the end was when, after she stonewalled for a long while, Speers got her to make a concession that, despite still running with a proposal for a 4 per cent minimum wage increase, the unions would ultimately take a pragmatic role and not jeopardise jobs. My sense was that she had always intended to say this, but wanted it to be seen to be dragged out of her. Presumably she did this in order to satisfy the hardliners in her movement and in the left of the ALP. I’m sure she’s an intelligent-enough woman to realise that the idea of a 4 per cent increase in the minimum wage in the current economic environment is a complete nonsense.
Even Mike Bowers’s double act was a bit dull.
The problem is that Speers himself, while being a very penetrating interviewer of his guests, is a rather bland presenter, and there need to be some strong personalities on the panel in order to make the show work. There weren’t really any today.
I think the ABC should seriously consider experimenting with the format of the show. The fact that coronavirus has stopped them from having four people around a table provides them with an opportunity to try something different, which they need to take IMO.
GG: “A useful update of the progress of the Virus from insiders this morning.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246575179112656896”
You reminded me that the Insiders did try something different this week . They had a segment where a guy I’ve never seen before talked about trends and graphs with the virus.
The segment seemed to be heavily inspired by Tosh Greenslade’s performances on Mad as Hell.
“lizziesays:
Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 11:24 am
I really don’t understand why sitting alone in one’s own car is forbidden. Or out driving alone, too. Isn’t that being isolated?”
Like most things, it’s probably because of the people who will do the wrong thing. Let everyone out driving, it becomes hard to police the people who are doing it to do some social non-distancing.
That would mean a lot of testing. Not a very good baseline of community infection tho with two prerequisites of having been at airport and showing symptoms.
There is also the Barossa where anyone who has been in the area will get similar testing rules. Just need to be showing cold/flu symptoms.
An lowering of the testing rules for these areas is welcomes in order to get those spot fires under control. I hope they go further and do a large sample randomised test in the Barossa. Would be a tops ground truth for their models as well as help control that flareup.
meher baba
I think I’d agree with you on all that. Speers seemed very flat today and Crowe and Benson looked as if they were attending a funeral.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #1818 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:28 am
Maybe if the ABC used their own home grown talent a bit more we might get some different perspectives.
I think that Simon Benson let the cat out of the bag this morning on The Insiders with his congratulatory comment about there being a complete panel of Murdoch and ex-Murdoch hacks, Speers included. Although it probably falls into the realm of conspiracy theories, I have been quietly dismayed at just how, over the last couple of years, Murdoch cuckoos have taken up residence at the ABC and other news outlets. Case in point is the arrival of Malcolm Farr on the Guardian site.
For those struggling through the home isolation phase.
Greensborough Growler @ #1823 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 9:26 am
I find the death tally, reported as though it’s a football scoreboard somewhat distasteful. Perhaps it was just the guy’s tone of voice though.
She is good. But not always. She often gets some mates on from the far right publications like Murdoch the press. She seems oblivious to them worming their propaganda into her show. Often she laughs along with them.
She has a bias. And that is fine as her journalistic integrity is normally pretty good. I just wish she opened up those segments to journos other than RW soldiers pushing a barrow.
Player One @ #1819 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:24 am
Actually it was OC but, you know, childish ranting really needs no firm grounding.
Ray (UK) @ #1776 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 10:19 am
Prof Medley is getting a hiding from people commenting on the article eg –
– if Dr Mengele wants to volunteer to be first cattle in the queue to get infected the natural way it will make his stance a little more credible.
– Experiment with vaccines on him until we get one right. If it fails and proves fatal, who cares.
– Don’t think he’s going to be a government adviser for a lot longer.
A criminal investigation into the conduct of Carnival Australia amid the Ruby Princess debacle, which saw 2700 passengers disembark the ship in Sydney despite passengers showing coronavirus symptoms, will be launched by police.
According to Sky News, NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller will launch a criminal investigation into who is to blame for allowing the ship to dock and disembark infected passengers.
All these charts showing total infected makes me wish they were paired with total ‘recovered’ .
Dan Andrew’s raises the bar, again.
lizzie @ #1820 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:24 am
Here’s the Queensland restriction. Sorry for introducing facts rather than rumour or speculation.
Only leave your home if it’s absolutely necessary. You can do so with members of your household or with one other person who is not a member of your household. Permitted reasons to leave your home are listed below.
➡️ For a residence or household, the number of people allowed to gather in that house is limited to the usual members of that household, plus two other visitors who are family or close friends.
➡️ We strongly urge people aged over 70, anybody over 65 with a chronic disease, and Indigenous people over 50 to stay at home for their own protection.
You are now only allowed to leave your home if absolutely necessary for the following permitted reasons. Failure to comply with these regulations can result in a fine up to $1,330 for individuals and $6,670 for corporations.
> To obtain essential goods and services
> Receive medical treatment or health care services
> Exercise
> Do work or volunteering that is essential and cannot be done from home (this is any type of work that is not restricted under the latest ‘non-essential business activity and undertaking closure’ direction)
> Visit another person’s home, as long as there are no more than 2 visitors who do not usually live there
> Visit a terminally ill relative or attend a funeral
> Assist, care for or support immediate family members
> Attend a Court or tribunal or comply with a Court or tribunal order
> Attend a childcare facility, school, university, or other educational institution to receive instruction that is not possible to receive at home
> Assist with an investigation by police or other law enforcement authority
> All shared custody arrangements of children under 18 years of age, whether informal or court-ordered, can continue as normal. You are allowed to leave home to take children from one parent’s home to the other parent’s home
> To avoid illness, injury or the risk of harm
> To comply with directions of a government agency.
This is awful, and not over yet..
“There are now 10 deaths among those who arrived in Sydney on the Ruby Princess ship, after NSW Health’s Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed three of the four deaths in the state overnight were passengers.
Dr McAnulty was unable to say which of the four men, who range in age from 61 to 91, travelled on the ship, which has been the source of over 620 cases of COVID-19 in Australia and now 10 deaths.“
https://www.smh.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-covid-19-cases-surpass-1-1-million-worldwide-australia-spends-first-weekend-with-strict-social-distancing-restrictions-20200404-p54h58.html
ABC journo cadetship aint what it used to be. The change in the makeup of ABC journalists and program hosts is deliberate and been going on for years to the point they talk about (every reducing) silos still holding out.
The Coalition do one thing well when in government. They consolidate power. Relentlessly. They lay awake at night working out new ways to silence and marginalise opposition. From the make up of ABC journalists to attacking Peppa Pig and Sesame St. There is an army of them ready to hit anyone who sticks their head up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0n8N98mpes
Greensborough Growler @ #1829 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:33 am
Do they have any home grown talent anymore? And if some such person appears on the show and gives an opinion, would that damage the ABC’s requirement to be neutral?
Stuart
Maybe not everyone sees the world as we do. We are all bias in our opinions and we really cannot ban journalist because they hold different views because that is what dictators do. As I posted last night reactionaries predate the Murdochs and will be around long after Rupert is pushing up daisies. I think its about time the Guardian adds some variety to its team because the echo chamber needs alternative views and of all the right wingers Farr is one of the better ones.
GG
The cruel bastard. Has he not seen the numerous ‘Social media Influencers’ who have revealed the shocking truth ? That these 5 star hotels are in fact hell holes that are worse than prison !
“ Woody grew up at the heart of a conspiracy theory.
He was well cast in Cheers.”
True Detective Season 1. Check out the long take sequence at the end of episode 4.
For mine his greatest role was as the dying Sheriff in Three Billboards outside Ebbings. In a stellar cast, his performance stood out for mine.
poroti @ #1838 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:43 am
And what info would that add? Lots of jurisdictions seem to have stopped even providing the figures.
I thought PK went from the ABC to News Limited then back again.
poroti @ #1839 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 9:43 am
Exactly!
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1841 Sunday, April 5th, 2020 – 11:51 am
Harrelson playing Pornographer Larry Flynt was a tour de force!