Essential Research and Roy Morgan: more coronavirus polling

Two new polls suggest early skepticism about the threat posed by coronavirus is fast disappearing.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has unusually conducted a new poll just a week after the last. This effectively replicates last week’s suite of questions on coronavirus to tie in with an online forum later today involving The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy and Essential Research’s Peter Lewis.

The results show a sharp rise in concern since last week, with 53% now saying they are very concerned, after the three previous fortnightly polls had it progressing from 25% to 27% to 39%. Only 18% now say they consider there has been an overreaction to the thread, down from 33% last week, while 43% now think the threat has been underestimated, up from 28%. These results imply little change to last week’s finding that 39% thought the response about right, though we will presumably have to await publication of the full report later today for a complete set of numbers. The poll also finds overwhelming support for the restrictive measures that have been taken. The rise in concern appears to have been matched by a decline in skepticism about media reportage, which 42% now say they trust, up from 35% last week.

Also out today is a Roy Morgan SMS poll on coronavirus, showing 43% support for the view that the federal government is handling the crisis well with 49% disagreeing — a rather weak result by international standards (it is noted that a similar poll in the United Kingdom a bit under a fortnight ago had it at 49% and 37%). This poll finds an even higher pitch of public concern than Essential, in that only 15% believed the threat to be exaggerated, with fully 81% disagreeing. Relatedly, 80% said they were willing to sacrifice some of their “human rights” to help prevent the spread of the virus (evidently having a somewhat different conception of that term from my own), with only 14% disagreeing. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 988.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The recorded increase in concern about the virus is not matched by a change in perceptions of the government’s handling of it, which 45% rate as good, unchanged on last week, and 31% rate as poor, up two. There is also a question on concern about climate change, which refutes the hopes of some conservative commentators in suggesting it has not been affected by the coronavirus crisis: 31% say they are more concerned than they were a year ago, 53% no more or less so, and 16% less concerned. However, the number of respondents saying Australia is not doing enough to address climate change is down from 60% in November to 55%, with doing enough up one to 23% and doing too much up one to 9%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,376 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan: more coronavirus polling”

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  1. poroti says: Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 11:53 am

    Notice how almost as soon as China is mentioned that “It’s Time” (who reminds me of Zoidlord/Astrobleme using a different tag) jumps in to start causing ructions and squashing any mention of China?

    It’s Time, use your brain and think that when the “racsists” that you so swiftly call them ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE PEOPLE BUT THOSE CHARGED WITH RUNNING THE COUNTRIES IN QUESTION!

  2. Adam Bandt
    @AdamBandt
    Almost 1m casuals are employed 12 mth emp’t is unrealistic & unfair.

    Greens will move to extend wage subsidy to all casuals/gig workers.

  3. Phylactella
    “Speaking as a scientist (and amateur philosopher), I have for years been critical of economics as taught.”

    I have read Saul too and would agree with a lot of his and your criticisms. However to be fair to economists, most real economists (i.e. that actually studied economics, as opposed to marketing like Scomo or legions who do finance and MBAs) would agree with them too. A lot of what is reported as economic theory is not settled but hotly disputed in the economics world. The far right stream of neo-Liberalism is the economics most quoted in our increasingly right wing media because it is popular with business interests.

    Most academic economists rarely get quoted in the media. For example, a prominent University of Chicago legal scholar, John Boatright, wrote a devastating rebuttal of Milton Friedman’s “the Purpose of a Firm is to Make a Profit” that was published back in the 80s. He proved Friedman’s arguments were logically false. Yet most people have never heard of it, and Friedman’s view is still widely reported, and sadly believed by many.

  4. Soc,

    A lot of what is reported as economic theory is not settled but hotly disputed in the economics world. The far right stream of neo-Liberalism is the economics most quoted in our increasingly right wing media because it is popular with business interests.

    Why does the name Chris Richardson immediately come to mind?

  5. In these depressing times we should have some fun to cheer us up. I propose a “Dumbest response to Covid19” award for each day.

    My nomination for today is the University of Adelaide. (True story)

    Last week Adelaide Uni finally agreed that staff should work from home. (Remember that all classes have been moved online for weeks, so there are no students on campus.) But then they said staff could NOT take their computers home with them! Now they are complaining that Uni credit cards must not be used to buy laptops. I am waiting for carrier pigeons and faxes to be issued. 🙂

  6. Well there’s a few other people onto the euromomo site.  If you can be bothered reading this article and its comments then it’s obvious the corona virus bubble hysteria is about to pop.  They’ll try to maintain it for a few more weeks but it’s over!
    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality/

    This is the first crack in the MSM. And it’s a Murdoch rag too.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11282990/hysteria-has-forced-the-uk-into-lockdown-crashed-the-economy-and-will-kill-more-than-coronavirus/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

    This is good for a laugh.
    https://twitter.com/hemantmehta/status/1244344119545208834

    Time to stop worrying about the bloody thing…just another scam! But who’s going to pay the price?

  7. Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:17 pm

    John Ralston Saul, there’s a name I haven’t seen for while.

    The Unconscious Civilisation was a good read.

    ——————————————–
    His wife Adrienne Clarkson was Governor-General of Canada 15 years ago, the first of two consecutive GG’s of Canada who were women and both came to Canada as refugees. The current GG Julie Payette is also female and a former astronaut.

  8. A word of advice to those tearing their hair out over being labelled as “racists”.

    Eventually It’s Time, P1, Briefly et al will get too smug and arrogant and The Management will them them to “Shut the fuck up” or wtte.

    Then they’ll taper off for a few days until they think Management’s got bored checking.

    Then they’ll start up again.

    They do it because they get their rocks off judging others. It makes them feel better about themselves and their own miserable lives. It’s a compulsion.

  9. Chris Reason
    @ChrisReason7
    · 3h
    #Breaking – Australia has issued orders to 6 cruise ships to leave national waters and head back to ports of origin, but they are refusing. NSW Police Commissioner says “they are lingering”. Is talking to federal authorities about how to move them on #coronavirusaus #COVID19Aus

  10. DM

    Richardson certainly writes to appeal to a business audience though he is a real economist and was high up in Treasury forecasting before leaving for greener pastures.

    But there are far worse offenders, including virtually every economics correspondent in the Murdoch zoo. Most are reporters writing what others tell them. The ones that really make me cringe are when news reports feature Bongo from ComSec reports on the markets, as if ComSec is anything other than a group of salespeople. And as for commentators from the IPA or the BCA….

  11. Lizzie

    “Chris Reason
    @ChrisReason7
    · 3h
    #Breaking – Australia has issued orders to 6 cruise ships to leave national waters and head back to ports of origin, but they are refusing. NSW Police Commissioner says “they are lingering”. Is talking to federal authorities about how to move them on #coronavirusaus #COVID19Aus”

    This is one of the other negative consequences of letting those four ships into Australian ports. Lots of other countries were turning them away. Now we are seen as a soft touch and the cruise companies are trying us on.

    I’d still like to know which NSW Federal Liberal MP allegedly had friends or in-laws on the Ruby Princess. It is responsible for almost 1/4 of all SA infections.

  12. I wonder how many of our universities will fall over while we wait for a vaccine ? A number seem to have gone all in for the ‘river of gold’ from foreign students. International travel may become full of hurdles/restrictions . Possibly fairly expensive as many airlines cark it in the low traffic world. I keep seeing 12-18 months for a vaccine quoted by various experts despite repeated reports of one ‘any minute now”

  13. Player One says: Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:33 pm

    You seem to get some sort of perverse enjoyment out of inflaming the situation. So why don’t you take own advice and drop it!

  14. lizzie @ #166 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 9:31 am

    Chris Reason
    @ChrisReason7
    · 3h
    #Breaking – Australia has issued orders to 6 cruise ships to leave national waters and head back to ports of origin, but they are refusing. NSW Police Commissioner says “they are lingering”. Is talking to federal authorities about how to move them on #coronavirusaus #COVID19Aus

    Gee, if only we had an organisation that was able to turn back the boats.

  15. Australia has issued orders to 6 cruise ships to leave national waters and head back to ports of origin, but they are refusing.

    Unwelcome boats ? Sounds like a job for those super heroes Uber Tuber and the Goon Squad.

  16. D P

    It’s hard to believe that our Great Protector has so far kept us safe from almost nothing. All that boasting, all that money spent.

  17. Terrible strife in India.

    Many millions of people on the move, mostly on foot. Public transport vehicles are totally choked with humanity in travesties of social distances. Many of the travelers lack food. Some are dying on the side of the roads. State borders have been closed. Many travlers can neither stay to self isolate at their city ‘homes’* nor get to their home villages.

    Belatedly, the government has started to set up emergency food stations but the scale of the need is phenomenal.

    *A stretch of footpath or perhaps a lean-to in the vast slums.

  18. Kronomex @ #172 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 12:41 pm

    Player One says: Tuesday, March 31, 2020 at 12:33 pm

    You seem to get some sort of perverse enjoyment out of inflaming the situation. So why don’t you take own advice and drop it!

    Because the Rabidly Sanctimonious are worse than Rabid Right Wingers. They just will not let go of your leg until you agree with them!

  19. p

    I imagine the second-hand cruise ship market is going to be crowded over the next little while.

    Owners may well be heavily in debt. If so, there is nothing in it for them to be paying for fuel to get these ships somewhere on the far side of the Earth and then having them swinging at anchor. The numbers are stupendous:

    https://boatinggeeks.com/how-much-does-a-cruise-ship-cost-to-operate/

    The crews of the six ships could well be abandoned on board.

  20. You have to hand it to the Chinese. They have introduced COVID 19 to the world and are now set to make a nice profit because they are the first to bring out a vaccine. They will reap enormous rewards out of the chaos they have caused.— Graham “Richo” Richardson (@SkyNewsRicho) March 30, 2020

    ALP right-wingers have a crank level on par with the worst of the Lib-Nats and PHON.

  21. Why doesn’t ScoMo just order the SAS to repel from helicopters onto the ships, Tampa style, and commandeer them?

    Oh wait, he’s too gutless to do it because the cruise ships are owned by Trump’s mate.

  22. Danama Papers @ #173 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 12:42 pm

    lizzie @ #166 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 9:31 am

    Chris Reason
    @ChrisReason7
    · 3h
    #Breaking – Australia has issued orders to 6 cruise ships to leave national waters and head back to ports of origin, but they are refusing. NSW Police Commissioner says “they are lingering”. Is talking to federal authorities about how to move them on #coronavirusaus #COVID19Aus

    Gee, if only we had an organisation that was able to turn back the boats.

    Has anyone seen a list of the boats? I had a quick look and could not find one. The boat we cruised on, The Queen Elizabeth, was still planning to be in Australian waters.

  23. Cud Chewer:

    I’m glad you found the COVID-19 video I posted in the wee hours instructive. Yes, it was a bit long, though this should’ve not been a problem for you. 🙂

  24. xdream,

    Quoting those Euro MOMO figuers is an example of the effect I was warning against a few days ago. That is, the attitude of ‘the disaster didn’t eventuate, so the steps we took to prevent it must have been a waste of time’.

  25. Are all those boats stationed to keep out asylum seekers steaming towards the cruise liners that refuse to leave?

    If not, why not?

    And WHERE IS DUTTON??

  26. @WilmaSlurrie
    ·
    32m
    Murdoch #coronavirusaus update:
    Richo says the Chinese invented #COVID19 to make money.
    Andrew Bolt says it’s just the flu, go back to work.
    Rowan Dean reckons it’s a hoax.
    Sharri Markson is getting her hair done.
    Alan Jones, in isolation, says there’s no need to isolate.

  27. Bushfire Bill @ #164 Tuesday, March 31st, 2020 – 12:25 pm

    A word of advice to those tearing their hair out over being labelled as “racists”.

    Eventually It’s Time, P1, Briefly et al will get too smug and arrogant and The Management will them them to “Shut the fuck up” or wtte.

    Then they’ll taper off for a few days until they think Management’s got bored checking.

    Then they’ll start up again.

    They do it because they get their rocks off judging others. It makes them feel better about themselves and their own miserable lives. It’s a compulsion.

    Bushfire Bill doth protests too much, me thinks…

  28. re the surge in gun and ammunition sales when the SHTF in the u.s.a the gun owners always go on a panic buying spree which in turn leads to a shortage in Australia as most guns and a fair percentage of ammo are imported from the states. The local supply dries up and shipments either don’t arrive or only limited stock turns up. this happened in 2016 when the rumour was spread that if Hillary Clinton was elected she would ban guns and .22 rimfire ammo was unobtainable over here for almost 12 months.

  29. AM – that particular poster only showed up very recently to rant on one particular theme, and the tone of the posts is … suspicious. I wouldn’t recommend engaging.

  30. @Amateur graphists and numberphiles

    FWIW These are my current best fit curves to the reported number of c19 cases for two different sigmoid functions.
    * Integrated Normal Distribution
    * Logistic

    Data
    The data set starts with the first reported case (4, January 26) and ends with yesterday’s reports at 5pm Qld time.

    Functions
    * Integrated Normal Distribution: NORMSDIST(X)
    * Logistic: 1/(1+EXP(-X))
    with appropriate translation and scaling for X

    Caveats
    I am not a statistician!
    To compare the curves I evaluated the square root of the sum of the errors squared and divided that by the number of data points.
    * 4.9 normal
    * 3.6 logistic

    It seems the logistic curve is the slightly better fit to the data.

    But the point of doing these types of analyses is to see if we as a nation are doing better or worse on any given day. The two projections for today at 5pm (Qld time) are:
    normal: 4,566
    logistic: 4,439

    Currently we’re reporting: 4,460

    4,514 https://www.covid19data.com.au/
    4,460 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
    4,359 https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers

  31. With squillions of dollars being dolled out by governments – not just conservative ones…I would like to parrot that well-known Liberal ………………..(We know how to manage the economy better than Labor) Party refrain and ask….”Where is the money coming from?”
    We were all told Shorten was the “Bill we could not afford”…..but Ad Man Morrison seems to have found a lot of money in the petty cash jar. He is now being lauded as finding a “game changer” and local radio has it as “saving our bacon”. Any damn fool can dish out the cash but who are the poor sods who will pick up the cost in the next 1-3 years?

  32. It’s all about “gimme gimme” in the business world.

    Qantas wants $4.2b from government to ‘level playing field’ if Virgin gets bailout

    Qantas boss Alan Joyce has been lobbying against government support for Virgin, saying last week that government should not help companies that “have been badly managed for 10 years” and that helping Virgin and not Qantas would be “completely unfair” on his airline.

    Qantas has told the Morrison government it expects to get a $4.2b loan if Virgin Australia is bailed out with a $1.4b coronavirus rescue package.

    1 hour ago by Patrick Hatch

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