As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has unusually conducted a new poll just a week after the last. This effectively replicates last week’s suite of questions on coronavirus to tie in with an online forum later today involving The Guardian’s Katharine Murphy and Essential Research’s Peter Lewis.
The results show a sharp rise in concern since last week, with 53% now saying they are very concerned, after the three previous fortnightly polls had it progressing from 25% to 27% to 39%. Only 18% now say they consider there has been an overreaction to the thread, down from 33% last week, while 43% now think the threat has been underestimated, up from 28%. These results imply little change to last week’s finding that 39% thought the response about right, though we will presumably have to await publication of the full report later today for a complete set of numbers. The poll also finds overwhelming support for the restrictive measures that have been taken. The rise in concern appears to have been matched by a decline in skepticism about media reportage, which 42% now say they trust, up from 35% last week.
Also out today is a Roy Morgan SMS poll on coronavirus, showing 43% support for the view that the federal government is handling the crisis well with 49% disagreeing — a rather weak result by international standards (it is noted that a similar poll in the United Kingdom a bit under a fortnight ago had it at 49% and 37%). This poll finds an even higher pitch of public concern than Essential, in that only 15% believed the threat to be exaggerated, with fully 81% disagreeing. Relatedly, 80% said they were willing to sacrifice some of their “human rights” to help prevent the spread of the virus (evidently having a somewhat different conception of that term from my own), with only 14% disagreeing. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from a sample of 988.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The recorded increase in concern about the virus is not matched by a change in perceptions of the government’s handling of it, which 45% rate as good, unchanged on last week, and 31% rate as poor, up two. There is also a question on concern about climate change, which refutes the hopes of some conservative commentators in suggesting it has not been affected by the coronavirus crisis: 31% say they are more concerned than they were a year ago, 53% no more or less so, and 16% less concerned. However, the number of respondents saying Australia is not doing enough to address climate change is down from 60% in November to 55%, with doing enough up one to 23% and doing too much up one to 9%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1086.
For those who were curious earlier, Lisa Harvey leads the Liberals in WA.
She is a lacklustre survivor from the profligate Barnett years (estimated State debt when he was thrown out about $38 billion). When I say lacklustre I am tempted to use the word “invisible” but this should be reserved for the leader of the rural carpetbaggers otherwise known as the Nationals….Mia someone???
I can understand the politics, but I absolutely disagree with Anna binning the public service pay rises. Crypto Austerity measures are not welcome at this time and public servants deserve their pay rise. Moreover, the rises would have kicked in for the second half of the year, when governments will be desperate to revive the hibernating economy. Those pay rises – given to folk in secure employment would have provided a much desired stimulus to the Queensland economy!
I meant to add as far as Harvey is concerned, she even made Mike Nahan, previous leader look good…
meher baba (earlier post)
Sorry. I’ve been preoccupied.
I don’t know if you are alone, but I don’t sense anyone wanting this to get worse. There is a tug between fear and hope though. For myself, I’m torn. The lessening acceleration gives me grounds for hope. The way an S curve is currently fitting the data gives me grounds for hope. But there’s not enough data. We’re not yet far enough into this thing.
And I don’t think it’s fair to say that trying different analyses “manipulates evidence”.
Is Tassie a bit behind the mainland?
If you look at just local transmissions, they were following a similar accelerating curve (no, accelerating growth is not just a product of the fevered imagination of delusional, Scott Morrison hating, Labor supporters) up until a week or two after Australians started taking measures.
The predictive value of our statistics (or at least, the simple analyses performed here) is currently questionable because Australians are changing their behaviour, not because of where the cases originated.
lizzie @ #1906 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 4:12 pm
Only about 20 years. (Sorry, couldn’t resist! 🙂 )
E. G. Theodore says:
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 4:08 pm
The corollary would have been that Mr Curtin would have had to resign after the bombing of Darwin, which would have helped no-one.
—————
Different scenarios
The current prime minister and Dutton could have easily stopped the passengers from going into the community after they disembark , by enforcing mandatory isolation .
Dan Tehan just loves saying “this pandemic”.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 4:06 pm
Scott @ #1894 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 4:00 pm
Yes, you could almost prove that their behaviour led to death for certain individuals. Yet we have one of their own bleating about 17000 that a Labor Senator willingly repaid after an audit she asked for herself found discrepancies.
——————————–
Abbott,Libs/nats and the pro coalition media set the precedence how many times did they go after Rudd and others in the pink batts
And today if Labor were in Government, the pro coalition media with the libs/nats would be baying for the labor prime minister and other ministers to be held to account
Meher baba:
What are “the signs you would expect to see if Australia was about to go down the path of Italy or the US”?
Both Labor and the Greens want to establish a joint select committee to interrogate the government’s Covid-19 response.
lizzie @ #1804 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 2:49 pm
The wonders of nature. Over millions of years plants have adapted themselves to look like birds. 🐦🐦🐦
“Tricotsays:
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 4:09 pm
I meant to add as far as Harvey is concerned, she even made Mike Nahan, previous leader look good…”
Jesus, that’s a big call. Not sure I’d go that far yet.
BK,
They are correct of course, the virus was dormant until a group of immodest woman started flashing their tits at Pangolines while eating deep fried horseshoe bats at the Wuhan KFC.
If only Moses had been around to part the Red Sea and drown them all!!
“ E. G. Theodore says:
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 4:08 pm
The corollary would have been that Mr Curtin would have had to resign after the bombing of Darwin, which would have helped no-one.“
Huh? The allies, especially the new Curtin government, were pretty powerless to do anything about the marauding Imperial Navy in early 1942. Unless Curtin could have magically conjured up a brace of Essex Class Aircraft Carriers, and the aircraft and crews …
Dutton, on the other hand, also had the power to intervene. No entry visa unless there was an enforced quarantine. His decision. He squibbed it. Completely phoned it in. Relying on existing agreed arrangements withy state authorities was never good enough in the face of this crisis, but given that his PM assured the nation 4 days before that the cruise liners would be stopped, this slackness is unforgivable.
What his galling is the way that Tories and their media proxies triangulate the debate: neither the incompetent federal Liberal Government, nor the incompetent NSW state liberal government are wholly to blame, therefore it is ‘un Australian’ for labor to criticise either and therefore when Labor does its frigging job – Labor is to blame for the Ruby Princess disaster. You know it makes sense., Don’t ya?
Well at least one of my predictions has been spot on, some on the Right will find a way to play the victim and blame those raising the alarm as the perpetrators of the current crisis.
They did it with the bushfires, they are doing it with the virus, and (when it becomes obvious to them that AGW is real) they’ll do it with climate change.
AlanCC @ #1886 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 4:02 pm
Excellent test. Welcome. 😇
“COVID clinics deserted despite increase in testing
By Marta Pascual Juanola
COVID clinics in Perth were deserted on Thursday morning, despite testing criteria being expanded to the general public.”
Not sure what to make of that. Either everyone here is too scared to leave home, or else there aren’t a lot of sore throats and fevers.
Just walked to the shops for some fresh air, bread and a jigsaw (really) and it was pretty dead out there. I’d say activity was around the Good Friday level.
“What are “the signs you would expect to see if Australia was about to go down the path of Italy or the US”?”
We should at some point start seeing increasing hospital admissions. It’d be interesting to see how that’s going.
Victoria seems to be reporting them. NSW has ICU cases. WA sometimes reports them.
The government is actually probably going to let Virgin Blue collapse but won’t let QANTAS go under. It will then attempt to get a second airline up and running when this is all over. Or if it takes over QANTAS completely split Jetstar off and make two airlines that way.
I think Virgin Blue has always rubbed the Conservative side a little bit – a bit of an upstart run by that unconventional Pomp. And then the Singapore governments role…. it is just not what they like.
Thanks Bennelong.
That’s what I figured. Lots if people doing the same now, including pub choir, with hundreds of participants.
Blobbit @ #1921 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 3:27 pm
Briefy will be devastated. Didn’t he know oodles of friends and associates who wanted to be tested but couldn’t?
Blobbit…………If you remember, for years before Nahan got into politics he was always flogging his hard right economics with that famous open-minded soul, Sattler on 6PR…However, give him his due…when he found his laissez-faire economics did not work in the real world, he toned down quite a bit. In terms of intellect he was streets ahead of Harvey whose only politics is to keep on about Roe Highway – about the only policy they Libs currently seem to have……………….
Given that it was Christian (Born to Rule) Porter was it? who claimed that McGowan was that “dreadful sweaty man” or wtte at the time of the last State election any comment about how nice or otherwise LH is, is redundant………………..
Scott @ #1902 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 4:20 pm
Go timidly Albo.
You know it makes sense.
lizzie @ #1896 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 4:10 pm
My kingdom for an Opposition.
Prof Higgins
I can’t find anything on this repurposed vaccine you’re talking about. Any hints?
OH scored a bag of toilet paper at Coles!
Streets were very quiet.
The shops were practically deserted.
Guards present in some places.
Available: most things (TP, meat, veg, bread, etc.)
Missing: flour, pasta, eggs, hand sanitiser, hand soap
Scott @ #1884 Thursday, April 2nd, 2020 – 4:00 pm
Pink Boats?
Blobbit
Each day,twice a day I feel ‘praise be to Jebus’ for the virus. On the way to work there is a @#&$#! of an intersection with no traffic lights and it is now a stress free crossing.
Feedforward and Feedback Control of COVID19
Australia is currently implementing feedforward control of COVID19, and doing it quite well (as are Singapore, Japan, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, NZ and perhaps some others, Canada is on the edge I think). Here is a diagram comparing feedforward and feedback controllers:
Difference is that feedback control adjusts (U) based on what’s actually happening (Y) whilst feedforward control adjusts based on disturbances (D) that are expected (predicted) to affect what’s actually happening (Y).
So feedback control structurally allows one “try something” and see if it works (favourable change to Y), and back it out if it doesn’t (to avoid disaster)
Problem is the delay in the feedback path (carrying Y back to the control function) seems to include the incubation period (as well as measurement being a logistical challenge) and if this is 14 days (or whatever) then it’s too long to be useful at the moment (note that China and Korea have used feedback control; they can reasonably do this because they were already in an uncontrolled outbreak and the feedback delay is thus worth paying as the price)
Now Australia (and likewise the various similarly performing nations) has two advantages:
– good measurement (of Y), which is necessary (but not sufficient) to provide a timely feedback signal (Y’, being something like Y with the delay reduced)
– good feedforward control, which provides some protection by “flattening the curve” and thus giving us more time
Its Time. That’s what the official Health WA web site says.
They should be testing everyone with even mild symptoms – and advertising/encouraging people to come forth. And hey should be doing random samples of the population.
When it’s all over the Labor Government will start a new Government owned National Airline. It will be cheaper than continually propping up Qantas while that Irish prick gets annual $10,000,000 bonuses.
And it will pay for all the Covid-19 debt by nationalising all Australian based mining operations in return for forgiving them all the taxes they haven’t paid since commencing business here.
And all this will appear less socialist/fascist/communist than everything the Liberals have done/will do during the Pandemic.
EGT
Feedforward control systems require good knowledge of the parameters of the process.
“Sweden”
Oddly isn’t doing that well. They seem to be implementing the UK’s original policy.
Sweden – 4947 cases, 239 dead
Norway – 4877 cases, 44 dead
Sweden growth rate 10%
Norway 5%
P1
Stay where you are (from a very proud Tasmanian)
It is interesting that the government is relying on the job keeper subsidy as part of its free child care policy announcement this afternoon.
How many child care workers are casuals who have been employed less than 12 months at a child care centre ?
There may be a big shortage of care workers available at centres that meet the criteria to apply as well as (already reported ) a large number of centres not meeting the job seeker criteria.
Like all Morrison announcements once you drill down not so fantastic.
See how it unfolds.
This from the Guardian blog:
“ NSW authorities board the Ruby Princess
The prime minister Scott Morrison said earlier that Australia has an obligation to provide healthcare to people who are sick and within our territorial waters, as the government begins plans to fly doctors from a private company to at least seven cruise ships floating off the coast of eastern Australia. As my colleagues reported, six crew members from the Ruby Princess cruise ship, which has now had more than 500 confirmed cases of coronavirus, have been taken to Australian hospitals after falling ill. It remains off the coast of Sydney with 1,100 crew onboard.
In a statement issued just after 4.30pm, NSW police said authorities had boarded the Ruby Princess cruise ship:
“A joint operation has been conducted with Australian Border Force to facilitate a medical assessment on the Ruby Princess. The Marine Area Command provided an escort for NSW Health and an independent medical team to board the ship earlier today.
“No police officers boarded the vessel. Additionally, the NSW Police Force is assisting with a number of medical evacuations and transfers of Australian crew members from several cruise ships anchored off Sydney.
“During today’s joint operation, a 66-year-old crew member was transported from the vessel requiring medical care.
“NSW police commissioner Mick Fuller will provide an update on the evolving operation regarding the management of cruise ships tomorrow morning (Friday 3 April 2020).”
If it were left to Generalissimo Mick and Obrestgrouppenfuhrer Kartoffelkopf, now that the liners have disembarked the Liberal Party grandees these plague ships should be sent straight to the bottom of the ocean, taking their human vermin with them.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/03/31/essential-research-roy-morgan-coronavirus-polling/comment-page-38/#comment-3376426
After watching Contagion use a FAE, I’d say a U-boat …
“Cud Chewersays:
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 4:43 pm
Its Time. That’s what the official Health WA web site says.
They should be testing everyone with even mild symptoms – and advertising/encouraging people to come forth. And hey should be doing random samples of the population.”
Not sure what you meant by “that’s what the official Health WA web site says”.
While it’s anecdotal, it’s interesting that with the opening up of criteria, there weren’t queues for the tests.
I saw the post on the Labor Senator.
I agree it’s news. A politician doing the right thing.
That’s really big news in the expenses politicians rort area.
Congratulations Labor for showing the way to do it.
In a few more weeks we will be able to judge which MPs (both Gov & Opp, but importantly Gov) have been able to step up to the real challenges of governing, instead of coasting along with the assistance of the MSM.
I see meher is still trying to defend the idea that we shouldn’t be taking strong action but instead should all just go out and relax and have a beer and see how many people get infected first.
Wrong. See my detailed analysis in the wee hours of this morning.
Bottom line. There is enough data, at least in NSW on known infections (bearing in mind that undetected infections are higher) that one can conclude two things.
1. Community infections – particularly those that cannot be traced to a source – have been rising exponentially.
2. The exponent has probably fallen in the last few days, but the rise is still exponential.
The reason why meher should take pause, particularly on infections with unknown source, is that the current statistics only represent a fraction of the number of actual infections. Why? Because we’re not testing everyone and we’re generally waiting for people to have strong/severe symptoms before testing. And because there is a pipeline of infections that take time to show up as strong/severe symptoms and because there’s a large fraction of people who are either asymptomatic or who have symptoms too mild for them to consider being tested.
Now, I guess that’s a lot for meher to swallow. His view of the world is essentially the right wing dog eat dog one. Fine. But he’s not going to get away with saying that there is no predictive value in current data. The current data says that there is a real chance of cases climbing into the tens of thousands.
Worse, meher is one of these fools that comes here and says that there is no need to shut things down to the current level. He’s said this repeatedly. Without basis of evidence.
Sick.
Goodstart the large not for profit childcare chain that looks after poor people’s kids
Of course the govt isn’t going to help them
Blobbit
https://healthywa.wa.gov.au/coronavirus
Skip to “Can I be tested”
There aren’t long queues at that clinic because there aren’t hundreds of people in the area who have BOTH high fever AND acute respiratory symptoms.
For everyone who satisfies that requirement, there are probably several who have covid19, are infectious and have mild symptoms.
Their testing regime is still woefully inadequate. At least its not asking them to prove a known contact. That’s a start.
“Cud Chewersays:
Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 5:03 pm
Blobbit
https://healthywa.wa.gov.au/coronavirus
Skip to “Can I be tested””
I’m aware of that. I’m just not sure what point you were trying to make by quoting it. The phrasing “That’s what the official Health WA web site says…” rather sounded like you were suggesting that in reality something different is happening.