Another three things

A bluffers’ guide to Saturday’s elections in Queensland, plus further items of marginal interest.

No Newspoll this week it seems. News you can use:

• Queensland’s elections on the weekend are covered in extensive and ongoing detail here. To cut a long story short: the state by-elections of Bundamba and Currumbin resulted in victories for the incumbent parties, namely Labor and the Liberal National Party respectively; Adrian Schrinner of the LNP was re-elected as lord mayor of Brisbane; and the LNP have almost certainly retained a healthy majority on Brisbane City Council. In Bundamba, the LNP ran third behind One Nation (and probably shouldn’t have bothered to run), whose presence in the field also took a bite out of the Labor primary vote. Labor did manage to improve their primary vote at the LNP’s expense in Currumbin, where One Nation is a lot weaker, but the latter’s presence means they will get a lower share of the combined preferences and thus fail to bite into the LNP’s existing 3.3% margin. There has been no notional two-party count, but scrutineers’ figures cited by Antony Green suggest Labor received an uncommonly weak 71% share of Greens preferences.

• Roy Morgan’s promise that it would provide further detail on its half-way intriguing findings on trust in political and business leaders (see here and here) has borne disappointing fruit. Rather than provide the trust and distrust scores as most of us would have hoped, a follow-up release offers only blurry impressions as to the specific attributes that caused the various leaders to be trusted or distrusted, in which “honest/genuine” and “integrity/sincerity” were uselessly listed as distinct response options.

• The Tasmanian government has delayed the date for the periodical Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Huon and Rosevears, but only from May 2 to May 30. The Tasmanian Electoral Commission says this will give it more time to “ensure electors have access to the voting process and to maintain the integrity of the 2020 Legislative Council elections during the COVID-19 pandemic”, which presumably means a greater emphasis on postal, pre-poll and maybe telephone voting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,029 comments on “Another three things”

Comments Page 5 of 21
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  1. I have found myself doing the keep the social distance rules with
    a
    Low altitude Nazi salute —

    Keep back youse lot ❗

    I have taken to wearing my hearing aid which enables some sort of conversation at say – three metres. Inspirational stuff
    Like
    “Ow are yer mate ❓ ”
    and
    “Beautiful doggie”.

    For Lizzie – when I met a cousin after 65 years the first thing she said to me was “I’m taller than you”. Oh, the pain, the pain.

  2. I watched a democrat video over the weekend. I’ll post it if I can find it again, it essentially shows Trump before and after news conferences. Yes, it’s a partisan video but it’s not selective editing of snippets put together to create a false narrative, rather it’s demonstrating a clear point.

    Given what I can see and my experience with Alzheimer’s I suspect Trump is perhaps a year, may be two at the outside, from being totally non-functional. I’m not a doctor and obviously not in any place to diagnose Trump based on a 5 minute snippet of video but what I can see is a man that has serious memory, speech and cognitive issues and that he has been deteriorating for the past few years. Whatever form of Alzheimer’s it is, it seems to be aggressive but then again he is also under pressure which wouldn’t be helping. Having watched it I actually feel sorry for him.

  3. Spence says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 9:55 am

    Boerwar – so if I know some people who are really struggling and need some social support I should rely on a phone call or nothing. Meanwhile most of the outside workforce and some of the inside workforce which adds up to a few million people are ok with following the distancing rules.’

    Personal touching/close contact/fomite contacts are what is killing tens of thousands of people overseas as we post. The Virus does not care whether people are mentally ill or have asthma or are disabled.

    So the optimum answer to your question is ‘No.’

  4. KayJay @ #201 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 10:32 am

    I have found myself doing the keep the social distance rules with
    a
    Low altitude Nazi salute —

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Keep back youse lot ❗

    I have taken to wearing my hearing aid which enables some sort of conversation at say – three metres. Inspirational stuff
    Like
    “Ow are yer mate ❓ ”
    and
    “Beautiful doggie”.

    For Lizzie – when I met a cousin after 65 years the first thing she said to me was “I’m taller than you”. Oh, the pain, the pain.

    Nice watch, sir. 😀

  5. GoldenSmaug

    When Ronald Reagan began to fade away, Nancy was able to stand in and protect him. Trump has been such a domineering person that I doubt he would allow it, and anyway without any special knowledge about her, I don’t think that Melania is up for it.

  6. Holdenhillbilly @ #37 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 7:24 am

    It will be paid to the employer, to keep employees on the payroll

    That’s not a wage subsidy, it’s corporate welfare!

    Boerwar @ #93 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:06 am

    They had to pay their own way home; they had to wait for hours; the room was ordinary; the food was ordinary; they were shuffled around like ‘animals’.

    Fair enough to complain about the first thing. What sort of shitty government only repatriates its stranded citizens if they can pay for their own rescue?

    Cud Chewer @ #95 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:07 am

    In fairness to China, the true story is that there was a moment of bureaucratic inertia, but once they enacted their plan, they were very efficient. Also China had the disadvantage of being the epicentre. All the had initially was reports of a pneumonia like illness. They had to isolate and characterise and DNA map. If it had happened in Australia, we’d have faced the same problems.

    Also in fairness to China, dictating other countries’ border policies isn’t their responsibility.

    If you need to blame someone for the outbreak, blame any nation that didn’t immediately lock down its borders the moment news first broke. Which is basically all of them. And then stop wasting time trying to assign blame. It will fix literally nothing.

  7. If you need to blame someone for the outbreak, blame any nation that didn’t immediately lock down its borders the moment news first broke.

    You may recall me bleating on about the school (state wide) policy in the first week of term that explicitly stated any child returning from Wuhan were perfectly safe to go to school.

  8. GoldenSmaug @ #47 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 10:37 am

    I watched a democrat video over the weekend. I’ll post it if I can find it again, it essentially shows Trump before and after New conferences. Yes, it’s a partisan video but it’s not selective editing of snippets put together to create a false narrative, rather it’s demonstrating a clear point.

    Given what I can see and my experience with Alzheimer’s I suspect Trump is perhaps a year, may be two at the outside, from being totally non-functional. I’m not a doctor and obviously not in any place to diagnose Trump based on a 5 minute snippet of video but what I can see is a man that has serious memory, speech and cognitive issues and that he has been deteriorating for the past few years. Whatever form of Alzheimer’s it is, it seems to be aggressive but then again he is also under pressure which wouldn’t be helping. Having watched it I actually feel sorry for him.

    Having watched my father and brother go down with early onset dementia I would agree. I doubt Melania has the confidence or skills to be able to help as Trump is such a domineering personality.

  9. As at 6:00am on 30 March 2020, there have been 4,093 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 284 new cases since 6:00am yesterday.

    Pretty significant drop from yesterday’s ~400 morning update.

  10. Allowing places of religion to flout the two person rule isn’t ‘their choice’. By facilitating the spread of the virus, they are endangering all of us.

  11. Simon Katich @ #209 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 10:46 am

    KayJay. Someone put your fence up way too far back!

    That looks suspiciously like a black skivvy.

    Damn ❗ Youse lot are acting as potential agents for the “Watchers Who Watch the Watchers”.

    The fence is an inner fence which was for the benefit of our dogs over the years. Just inside that fence is a groove a few inches deep where the dogs would patrol – keeping elephants away – the groove is gradually getting filled. There is an outer fence (just visible) simply to stop tourist patrolling the yard which is a corner lot.

    Black skivvy. Muriel – change of attire – all black is so yesterday. Let’s try for khaki and blue. Hokay ❗ What’s for lunch ❓

  12. Charts from yesterday’s figures, with predictions and CIs for today:

    Note that there is basically no change in the growth rate over the last few days, and that 15% growth represents a doubling time of 5 days. Still a *very large problem*.

  13. @jonkudelka
    ·
    20s
    Jigsaw puzzle update you are now only allowed to do jigsaw puzzles in the garden shed. If you do not have a garden and/or a garden shed you may do a puzzle whilst you and the puzzle are enclosed inside a cardboard box in your bedroom.

  14. Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    · 3h
    Listening to Mr Frydenberg, it sounds like the wage subsidy scheme will be a red tape nightmare
    They are weaving a web of complexity when all that is needed is a simple, broad based & generous wage subsidy payment
    It appears they’re skimping with an eye on the budget @RNBreakfast

  15. Lizzie

    Two reasons for the LNP’s approach.

    They don’t want to look like Labor.
    They don’t want one simple payment. UBI advocates will have firm ground to campaign on.

    Both reasons of course are ridiculous in the circumstances. I cannot back up what Doyley has been posting more strongly.

  16. lizzie @ #220 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:02 am

    Stephen Koukoulas
    @TheKouk
    · 3h
    Listening to Mr Frydenberg, it sounds like the wage subsidy scheme will be a red tape nightmare
    They are weaving a web of complexity when all that is needed is a simple, broad based & generous wage subsidy payment
    It appears they’re skimping with an eye on the budget @RNBreakfast

    Red tape for business, bad!
    Red tape for welfare, good!

  17. The statistic that I am interested in is NSW ICU bed and ventilator useage.
    Today is 26 and 13
    Very little movement over the last 5 days

  18. lizzie @ #68 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 8:53 am

    I’m still finding it impossible to accept that people believe in the Rapture. I just can’t.

    The only time the church will close is when the Rapture is taking place

    Yet you blithely accept that people believe that a book of completely unknown authorship that sets out the myths and legends of a tribe of middle eastern goatherders is ‘the word of god’. There is no real difference at all between that piece of utter irrationality and ‘the rapture’. People actually believe that some bloke, with no actual historical provenance at all, walked on water! Really!

    It is all mass hysteria, promulgated in masses to masses, backed up by massive government subsidies.

  19. As I mentioned previously, if we all do our bit with following social distancing etc.
    I am confident we can get through this quite well. And getting some normalcy in May.

  20. yabba

    Yet you blithely accept that people believe that a book of completely unknown authorship that sets out the myths and legends of a tribe of middle eastern goatherders is ‘the word of god’.

    Who are you addressing? It’s not me.

  21. Morrison and co were reluctant to put in strong measures.
    Thanks to Vic and NSW pushing the issue last week.
    If we succeed it will be down to them

  22. Guytaur

    Ultimately people can decide whether attending hair appointment is sensible social distancing.
    And of course hairdressers can decide not to cut hair with n that basis.

  23. I am interested in the 70 plus age group which still stands under 15% of cases in NSW.

    15 people aged 90+ with the disease which includes 3 deceased

  24. @MsRebeccaRobins
    ·
    16m
    #auspol I refuse to put Morrison’s what the carp app for #COVID19Aus on my phone it’s spyware read the fine print if you can blow it up read it and then make up your mind

  25. KayJay says:
    The fence is an inner fence which was for the benefit of our dogs over the years. Just inside that fence is a groove a few inches deep where the dogs would patrol – keeping elephants away – the groove is gradually getting filled. There is an outer fence (just visible) simply to stop tourist patrolling the yard which is a corner lot.
    ____________
    Well aren’t we all fancy with an inner fence and an outer fence! Reminds me of a Medieval Lord with his inner castle walls and outer castle walls. Defense in Depth!

  26. OC and DM,

    Going through media releases at NSW health.

    ICU in NSW in last 5 days:
    16,19,22,24,26
    Requiring ventilation:
    10,9,11,12,13

    Hardly skyrocketing, but not exactly flat either.

  27. An international team of scientists say the coronavirus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in China. Photo: APAn international team of scientists say the coronavirus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in China. Photo: AP
    An international team of scientists say the coronavirus may have jumped from animal to humans long before the first detection in China. Photo: AP
    The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 might have been quietly spreading among humans for years or even decades before the sudden outbreak that sparked a global health crisis, according to an investigation by some of the world’s top virus hunters.
    Researchers from the United States, Britain and Australia looked at piles of data released by scientists around the world for clues about the virus’ evolutionary past, and found it might have made the jump from animal to humans long before the first detection in the central China city of Wuhan.
    Though there could be other possibilities, the scientists said the coronavirus carried a unique mutation that was not found in suspected animal hosts, but was likely to occur during repeated, small-cluster infections in humans.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3077442/coronavirus-pathogen-could-have-been-spreading-humans-decades

  28. Victoria @ #237 Monday, March 30th, 2020 – 10:21 am

    Ultimately people can decide whether attending hair appointment is sensible social distancing.
    And of course hairdressers can decide not to cut hair with n that basis.

    Fair enough, if other activities are held to the same standard. Let people decide whether or not going to the gym or for a swim is sensible social distancing. And of course gyms and pools can decide to voluntarily shut down if they want, etc..

    But since that’s not the standard being applied generally, what makes hairdressers so special that they get to benefit from it?

  29. KayJay, charcoal is the new black. My charcoal skivvy has a few holes in it tho so shopping for a new one. I have heard dove grey is the new charcoal.

  30. It’s Time says:
    Monday, March 30, 2020 at 10:15 am
    So has Dutton reemerged?

    He has certainly been secretly submerged for a long time.

    I reckon it’s because:

    (1) His condition with the virus is a lot worse than he said it was earlier; and/or

    (2) The atrocious performance of his Border Force in keeping infectious people out has embarrassed him severely and weakened his standing as a contender for Morrison’s job.

  31. Yet you blithely accept that people believe that a book of completely unknown authorship that sets out the myths and legends of a tribe of middle eastern goatherders is ‘the word of god’.

    Watch it! I am only a few generations from Middle Eastern goatherders.

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